Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

References

• Booth , P , Chadburn , R , Cooper , D , Haberman , S and James , D . 1999 . Modern Actuarial Theory and Practice , 716 London : Chapman and Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Botts , RR and Boles , JN . 1958 . Use of normal-curve theory in crop insurance ratemaking . Journal of Farm Economics , 40 : 733 – 40 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Casella , G and Berger , RL . 1990 . Statistical Inference (Ed.) Brooks/Cole Publishing Company California, p. 650
   Google Scholar
• Chambers , RG . 1989 . Insurability and moral hazard in agricultural insurance markets . Americal Journal of Agricultural Economics , 71 : 604 – 16 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Day , RH . 1965 . Probability distributions of field crop yields . Journal of Farm Economics , 47 : 713 – 41 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gallagher , P . 1987 . US Soybean yields: estimation and forecasting with nonsymmetric disturbances . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 69 : 796 – 803 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goodwin , BK . 2001 . Problems with market insurance in agriculture . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 83 : 643 – 9 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goodwin , BK and Ker , AP . 1998 . Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions: implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 80 : 139 – 53 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goodwin , BK and Ker , AP . 2002 . “ Modeling price and yield risk ” . In A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in US Agriculture , Edited by: Just , RE and Pope , RD . 586 Massachusetts : Kluwer Academic Publisher .
   Google Scholar
• Goodwin , BK and Mahul , O . 2004 . Risk modeling concepts relating to the design and rating of agricultural insurance contracts World Bank
   Google Scholar
• Goodwin , BK and Smith , V . 1996 . Crop insurance, moral hazard, and agricultural chemical use . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 78 : 428 – 38 .
   Google Scholar
• Guyon , X . 1995 . Random Fields on a Network: Modeling, Statistics and Applications , New York : Springer Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Halcrow , HG . 1949 . Actuarial structures for crop insurance . Journal of Farm Economics , 31 : 418 – 43 .
   Google Scholar
• Hart , DG , Buchanan , RA and Howe , BA . 1996 . The Actuarial Practice of General Insurance , 592 Australia : The Institute of Actuaries of Australia .
   Google Scholar
• Harwood , J , Heifner , R , Coble , K , Perry , J and Agapi , S . 1999 . Managing risk in farming: concepts , Agricultural Economic Report 774, No. Economic Research Service research and analysis. US Department of Agriculture
   Google Scholar
• Ibge . 2004 . Available at www.ibge.gov.br (accessed January 2004
   Google Scholar
• Just , RE and Weninger , Q . 1999 . Are crop yields normally distributed? . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 81 : 287 – 304 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ker , AP and Coble , K . 2003 . Modeling conditional yield densities . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 85 : 291 – 304 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ker , AP and Goodwin , BK . 2000 . Nonparametric estimation of crop insurance rates revisited . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 83 : 463 – 78 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahul , O . 1999 . Optimum area yield crop insurance . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 81 : 75 – 82 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miranda , MJ . 1991 . Area-yield crop insurance reconsidered . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 73 : 233 – 42 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miranda , MJ and Glauber , JW . 1997 . Systemic risk, reinsurance, and the failure of crop insurance markets . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 79 : 206 – 15 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Miranda , M , Skees , J and Hazell , P . 1999 . Innovations in agricultural and natural disaster insurance for developing countries . Working paper . 1999 . The Ohio State University . Dep. of Agr. Envir. and Development. Econ.
   Google Scholar
• Moss , CB and Shonkwiler , JS . 1993 . Estimating yield distributions with a stochastic trend and nonnormal errors . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 75 : 1056 – 62 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nelson , CH and Preckel , PV . 1989 . The conditional beta distribution as a stochastic production function . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 71 : 370 – 8 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ozaki , VA . 2005 . Métodos atuariais aplicados à determinação da taxa de prêmio de contratos de seguro agrícola: um estudo de caso Thesis (Ph.D), Piracicaba – Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”, Universidade de São Paulo, p. 324
   Google Scholar
• Quiggin , J , Karagiannis , G and Stanton , J . 1994 . Crop insurance and crop production: an empirical study of moral hazard and adverse selection in Economics of Agricultural Crop Insurance: Theory and Evidence (Eds) D. L. Hueth and W. H. Furtan, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, p. 380
   Google Scholar
• Ramirez , OA . 1997 . Estimation and use of a multivariate parametric model for simulating heteroskedastic, correlated, nonnormal random variables: the case of corn belt corn, soybean and wheat yields . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 79 : 191 – 205 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ramirez , OA , Misra , S and Field , J . 2003 . Crop-yield distributions revisited . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 85 : 108 – 20 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Redja , GE . 1995 . Principles of Risk Management and Insurance , 784 New York : HarperCollins College Publishers .
   Google Scholar
• Rosseti , LA . 1998 . Seguridade e zoneamento agrícola no Brasil. Novos rumos in I SIMPÓSIO INTERNACIONAL DE SECURIDADE E ZONEAMENTO AGRÍCOLA DO MERCOSUL. Brasília, 1998, Anals, Ministério da Agricultura e Abastecimento/CER/PROAGRO/GM, Brasília, pp. 1–10
   Google Scholar
• Rosseti , LA . 2001 . Zoneamento agrícola em aplicações de crédito e securidade rural no Brasil: aspectos atuariais e de política agrícola . Brazilian Journal of Agrometeorology , 9 : 386 – 99 .
   Google Scholar
• Sherrick , BJ , Zanini , FC , Schnitkey , GD and Irwin , SH . 2004 . Crop insurance valuation under alternative yield distributions . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 86 : 406 – 19 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Silverman , BW . 1986 . Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis , 175 London : Chapman and Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Skees , JR and Barnett , BJ . 1999 . Conceptual and practical considerations for sharing catastrophic risks . Review of Agricultural Economics , 21 : 424 – 41 .
   Google Scholar
• Skees , JR , Black , JR and Barnett , BJ . 1997 . Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 79 : 430 – 8 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skess , JR and Reed , MR . 1986 . Rate making for farm-level crop insurance: implications for adverse selection . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 68 : 653 – 9 .
   Google Scholar
• Smith , VH , Chouinard , HH and Baquet , AE . 1994 . Almost ideal area yield crop insurance contracts . Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , 23 : 75 – 83 .
   Google Scholar
• Taylor , CR . 1990 . Two practical procedures for estimating multivariate nonNormal probability density functions . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 72 : 210 – 7 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trowbridge , CL . 1989 . Fundamental Concepts of Actuarial Science Actuarial Education and Research Fund, p. 79
   Google Scholar
• Turvey , C and Zhao , C . 1999 . Parametric and nonparametric crop yield distributions and their effects on all-risk crop insurance premiums Working paper, Dep. of Agricultural Economics and Business, University of Guelf, Ontario
   Google Scholar
• Wang , HW and Zhang , H . 2003 . On the possibility of private crop insurance market: a spatial statistics approach . The Journal of Risk and Insurance , 70 : 111 – 24 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar