References
- Clarida , R , Gali , J and Gertler , M . 2000 . Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory . The Quarterly Journal of Economics , 115 : 147 – 80 .
- Everitt , BS . 1992 . The Analysis of Contingency Tables, , 2nd , London : Chapman and Hall .
- Henriksson , RD and Merton , RC . 1981 . On market timing and investment performance II: statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills . Journal of Business , 54 : 513 – 23 .
- Joutz , F and Stekler , HO . 2000 . An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve . International Journal of Forecasting , 16 : 17 – 38 .
- Kaylen , MS and Brandt , JA . 1988 . A note on qualitative forecast evaluation: comment . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 70 : 415 – 16 .
- Leitch , G and Tanner , EJ . 1991 . Economic forecast evaluations: profits versus conventional error measures . American Economic Review , 81 : 580 – 90 .
- Merton , RC . 1981 . On market timing and investment performance I: an equilibrium theory of value for market forecasts . Journal of Business , 54 : 363 – 406 .
- Mishkin , FS . 2006 . The Economics of Money Banking and Financial Markets , New York : Pearson .
- Naik , G and Leuthold , RM . 1986 . A note on qualitative forecast evaluation . American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 68 : 721 – 6 .
- Pesaran , MH and Timmermann , A . 1992 . A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 10 : 461 – 5 .
- Pesaran , MH and Timmermann , A . 2004 . How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series? . International Journal of Forecasting , 20 : 411 – 25 .
- Romer , CD and Romer , DH . 2000 . Federal Reserve information and the behavior of interest rates . American Economic Review , 90 : 429 – 57 .
- Schnader , MH and Stekler , HO . 1990 . Evaluating predictions of change . Journal of Business , 63 : 99 – 107 .
- Sims , CA . 2002 . The role of models and probabilities in the monetary policy process . Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , 2 : 1 – 40 .
- Stekler , HO . 1994 . Are economic forecasts valuable? . Journal of Forecasting , 13 : 495 – 505 .
- Taylor , JB . 1993 . Discretion versus policy rules in practice . Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy , 39 : 195 – 214 .
- Wickens , TD . 1989 . Multiway Contingency Tables Analysis for the Social Sciences , Hillsdale, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates .
- Woodford , M . 2001 . The Taylor rule and optimal monetary policy . American Economic Review , 91 : 232 – 7 .
- Zarnowitz , V . 1985 . Rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 3 : 293 – 311 .