Are changes in breeding habitat responsible for recent population changes of long-distance migrant birds?

References

• Amar, A., Smith, K. & Lindsell, J. 2005. Population changes of some bird species in Scottish and Welsh Atlantic oakwoods between the 1980s and 2003-04 using data from the Repeat Woodland Bird Survey. Bot. J. Scot. 57: 179–185. doi: 10.1080/03746600508685096
   Google Scholar
• Amar, A., Hewson, C.M., Thewlis, R.M., Smith, K.W., Fuller, R.J., Lindsell, J.A., Conway, G., Butler, S. & MacDonald, M.A. 2006. What’s happening to our woodland birds? Long-term changes in the populations of woodland birds. RSPB Research Report No 19, Sandy, Bedfordshire.
   Google Scholar
• Amar, A., Smith, K.W., Butler, S., Linsell, J.A., Hewson, C.M., Fuller, R.J. & Charman, E.C. 2010. Recent patterns of change in vegetation structure and tree composition of British broadleaved woodland: evidence from large-scale surveys. Forestry 83: 345–356. doi: 10.1093/forestry/cpq017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baarda, P. 2005. Atlantic oakwoods in Great Britain: factors influencing their definition, distribution and occurrence. Bot. J. Scot. 57: 1–20. doi: 10.1080/03746600508685082
   Google Scholar
• Baillie, S.R., Marchant, J.H., Leech, D.I., Massimino, D., Sullivan, M.J.P., Eglington, S.M., Barimore, C., Dadam, D., Downie, I.S., Harris, S.J., Kew, A.J., Newson, S.E., Noble, D.G., Risely, K. & Robinson, R.A. 2014. BirdTrends 2014: Trends in Numbers, Breeding Success and Survival for UK Breeding Birds. BTO Research Report 662. BTO, Thetford. http://www.bto.org/birdtrends.
   Google Scholar
• Balmer, D., Gillings, S., Caffrey, B., Swann, B., Downie, I. & Fuller, R. 2013. Bird Atlas 2007-11. The Breeding and Wintering Birds of Britain and Ireland. BTO Books, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Bibby, C.J. 1989. A survey of breeding Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix in Britain, 1984-85. Bird Study 36: 56–72. doi: 10.1080/00063658909477003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bibby, C.J., Bain, C.G. & Burges, D.J. 1989. Bird communities of highland birchwoods. Bird Study 36: 123–133. doi: 10.1080/00063658909477014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C.M. & Visser, M.E. 2006. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: 81–83. doi: 10.1038/nature04539
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burger, C., Belskii, E., Eeva, T., Laaksonen, T., Mägi, M., Mänd, R., Qvarnström, A., Slagsvold, T., Veen, T., Visser, M.E., Wiebe, K.L., Wiley, C., Wright, J. & Both, C. 2012. Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: how temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in Pied Flycatcher diet depending on habitat variation. J. Anim. Ecol. 81: 926–936. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.01968.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burgess, M. & Barrimore, C. 2012. The southwest pied flycatcher monitoring network. Devon Birds 65: 3–9.
   Google Scholar
• Cameron, A.C. & Windmeijer, F.A.G. 1997. An R-squared measures of goodness of fit for some common nonlinear regression models. J. Econometrics 77: 329–342. doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(96)01818-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chamberlain, D.E. & Fuller, R.J. 1999. Density-dependent habitat distribution in birds: issues of scale, habitat definition and habitat availability. J. Avian. Biol. 30: 427–436. doi: 10.2307/3677015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dolman, P., Fuller, R., Gill, R., Hooton, D. & Tabor, R. 2010. Escalating ecological impacts of deer in lowland woodland. Br. Wildl. 21: 242–254.
   Google Scholar
• Donald, P.F., Green, R.E. & Heath, M.F. 2001. Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe’s farmland bird populations. Proc. R. Soc. Lond B 268: 25–29. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2000.1325
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fretwell, S.D. & Lucas, H.L. 1970. On territorial behaviour and other factors influencing habitat distribution in birds. Acta Biotheor. 19: 16–36. doi: 10.1007/BF01601953
   Google Scholar
• Fuller, R.J. 1992. Bird Habitats in Britain. T & AD Poyser, Calton.
   Google Scholar
• Fuller, R.J. & Crick, H.Q.P. 1992. Broad-scale patterns in geographical and habitat distribution of migrant and resident passerines in Britain and Ireland. Ibis 134 (Suppl. 1): 14–20.
   Google Scholar
• Fuller, R.J. & Gough, S.J. 1999. Changes in sheep numbers in Britain: implications for bird populations. Biol. Cons. 91: 73–89. doi: 10.1016/S0006-3207(99)00039-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fuller, R.J., Noble, D.G., Smith, K.W. & Vanhinsbergh, D. 2005. Recent declines in populations of woodland birds in Britain: a review of possible causes. Br. Birds 98: 116–143.
   Google Scholar
• Fuller, R.J., Gaston, K.J. & Quine, C.P. 2007. Living on the edge: British and Irish woodland birds in a European context. Ibis 149 (Suppl. 2): 53–63. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00734.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gregory, R.D., Vorisek, P., van Strien, A., Gmelig Meyling, A.W., Jiguet, F., Fornasari, L., Reif, J., Chylarecki, P. & Burfield, I. 2007. Population trends of widespread woodland birds in Europe. Ibis 149 (Suppl. 2): 78–97. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00698.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hall, J.E. & Kirby, K.J. 1989. The relationship between biodiversity action plan priority and broad habitat types, and other woodland classifications. JNCC Report No. 288, 41 pp. http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/pdf/jncc288.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Harris, S.J., Massimino, D., Newson, S.E., Eaton, M.A., Balmer, D.E., Noble, D.G., Musgrove, A.J., Gillings, S., Procter, D. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W. 2015. The Breeding Bird Survey 2014. BTO Research Report 673. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Hewson, C.M. & Noble, D.G. 2009. Population trends of breeding birds in British woodlands over a 32-year period: relationships with food, habitat use and migratory behaviour. Ibis 151: 464–486. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2009.00937.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hewson, C.M., Fuller, R.J. & Day, C. 2005. An investigation of habitat occupancy by the Nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos with respect to population change at the edge of its range in England. J. Ornithol. 146: 244–248. doi: 10.1007/s10336-005-0085-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hewson, C.M., Amar, A., Linsell, J.A., Thewlis, R.M., Butler, S., Smith, K. & Fuller, R.J. 2007. Recent changes in bird populations in British broadleaved woodland. Ibis 149 (Suppl. 2): 14–28. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00745.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hobson, K.A., Van Wilgenburg, S.L., Wesołowski, T., Maziarz, M., Bijlsma, R.G., Grendelmeier, A. & Mallord, J.W. 2014. A multi-isotope (δ2H, δ13C, δ15N) approach to establishing migratory connectivity in Palearctic-Afrotropical migrants: an example using Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix. Acta Ornithol. 49: 57–69. doi: 10.3161/000164514X682896
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holt, C.A., Fuller, R.J. & Dolman, P.M. 2010. Experimental evidence that deer browsing reduces habitat suitability for breeding common nightingales Luscinia megarhynchos. Ibis 152: 335–346. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2010.01012.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hopkins, J.J. & Kirby, K.J. 2007. Ecological change in British broadleaved woodland since 1947. Ibis 149 (Suppl. 2): 29–40. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00703.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krebs, J.R., Wilson, J.D., Bradbury, R.B. & Siriwardena, G.M. 1999. The second silent spring? Nature 400: 611–612. doi: 10.1038/23127
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallord, J.W., Orsman, C.J., Cristinacc, A., Butcher, N., Stowe, T.J. & Charman, E.C. 2012a. Mortality of Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix nests in Welsh oakwoods: predation rates and the identification of nest predators using miniature nest cameras. Bird Study 59: 286–295. doi: 10.1080/00063657.2012.669359
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallord, J.W., Charman, E.C., Cristinacce, A. & Orsman, C.J. 2012b. Habitat associations of Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix breeding in Welsh oakwoods. Bird Study 59: 403–415. doi: 10.1080/00063657.2012.727780
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martinez, N., Jenni, L., Wyss, E. & Zbinden, N. 2010. Habitat structure versus food abundance: the importance of sparse vegetation for the common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus. J Ornithol. 151: 297–307. doi: 10.1007/s10336-009-0455-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maziarz, M. & Wesołowski, T. 2010. Timing of breeding and nestling diet of Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix in relation to changing food supply. Bird Study 57: 540–552. doi: 10.1080/00063657.2010.512954
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mitchell, F.J.G. & Kirby, K.J. 1990. The impact of large herbivores on the conservation of semi-natural woods in the British uplands. Forestry 63: 333–353. doi: 10.1093/forestry/63.4.333
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Møller, A.P., Rubolini, D. & Lehikoinen, E. 2008. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105: 16195–16200. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0803825105
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morel, G.J. & Morel, M.-Y. 1992. Habitat use by Palearctic migrant passerine birds in West Africa. Ibis 134 (Suppl. 1): 83–88.
   Google Scholar
• Nakagawa, S. & Scheilzeth, H. 2013. A general and simple method for obtaining R2 from generalized linear mixed-effects models. Methods Ecol. Evol. 4:133–142. doi: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00261.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Newton, I. 2008. The Migration Ecology of Birds. Academic Press, London.
   Google Scholar
• Ockendon, N., Hewson, C.M., Johnston, A. & Atkinson, P.W. 2012. Declines in British-breeding populations of Afro-Palearctic migrant birds are linked to bioclimatic wintering zone in Africa, possibly via constraints on arrival time advancement. Bird Study 59: 111–125. doi: 10.1080/00063657.2011.645798
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ouwehand, J., Ahola, M.P., Ausems, A.N.M.A., Bridge, E.S., Burgess, M., Hahn, S., Hewson, C.M., Klaassen, R.H.G., Laaksonen, T., Lampe, H.M., Velmala, W. & Both, C. 2016. Light-level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in European populations of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. J. Avian Biol. 47: 69–83. doi:10.1111/jav.00721.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Palmer, S.C.F., Mitchell, R.J., Truscott, A.M. & Welch, D. 2004. Regeneration failure in Atlantic oakwoods: the roles of ungulate grazing and invertebrates. For. Ecol. Manage. 192: 251–265. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2004.01.038
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peach, W., Baillie, S.R. & Underhill, L. 1991. Survival of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to West African rainfall. Ibis 133: 300–305. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.1991.tb04573.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Ockendon, N., Baker, D.J., Carr, J., White, E.C., Almond, R.E.A., Amano, T., Bertram, E., Bradbury, R.B., Bradley, C., Butchart, S.H.M., Doswald, N., Foden, W., Gill, D.J.C., Green, R.E., Sutherland, W.J. & Tanner, E.V.J. 2015. Geographical variation in species’ population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. Proc. R. Soc. B 282: 20151561. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1561
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quelch, P.R. 2005. Structure and utilisation of the early oakwoods. Bot. J. Scot. 57: 99–105. doi: 10.1080/03746600508685087
   Google Scholar
• R Core Development Team. 2013. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing v. 3.0.2. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org/.
   Google Scholar
• Reed, M.S., Bonn, A., Slee, W., Beharry-Borg, N., Birch, J., Brown, I., Burt, T.P., Chapman, D., Chapman, P.J., Clay, G.D., Cornell, S.J., Fraser, E.D.G., Glass, J.H., Holden, J., Hodgson, J.A., Hubacek, K., Irvine, B., Jin, N., Kirkby, M.J., Kunin, W.E., Moore, O., Moseley, D., Prell, C., Price, M.F., Quinn, C.H., Redpath, S., Reid, C., Stagl, S., Stringer, L.C., Termansen, M., Thorp, S., Towers, W. & Worrall, F. 2009. The future of the uplands. Land Use Policy 26 (Suppl. 1): S204–S216. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.013
   Google Scholar
• Ricklefs, R.E. 1969. An analysis of nesting mortality in birds. Smithson Contrib. Zool. 9: 1–48. doi: 10.5479/si.00810282.9
   Google Scholar
• Robbins, C.S., Sauer, J.R., Greenberg, R.S. & Droege, S. 1989. Population declines in North American birds that migrate to the neotropics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 86: 7658–7662. doi: 10.1073/pnas.86.19.7658
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rothero, G.P. 2005. Oceanic bryophytes in Atlantic oakwoods. Bot. J. Scot. 57: 135–140. doi: 10.1080/03746600508685092
   Google Scholar
• Sanderson, F.J., Donald, P.F., Pain, D.J., Burfield, I.J. & van Bommel, F.P.J. 2006. Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Biol. Cons. 131: 93–105. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2006.02.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SAS Institute Inc. 2002–2008. SAS/STAT Software. Release 9.2. SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC.
   Google Scholar
• Sheehan, D.K. & Sanderson, F.J. 2012. Seeing the bigger picture: how anthropogenic landscape modification in Africa affects declining migratory birds and the need for trans-continental research and conservation. Ibis 154: 659–662. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2012.01275.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smart, J., Taylor, E., Amar, A., Smith, K., Bierman, S., Carpenter, J., Grice, P., Currie, F. & Hewson, C. 2007. Habitat Associations of Woodland Birds: Implications for Woodland Management for Declining Species. RSPB Research Report, No 26. RSPB, Sandy.
   Google Scholar
• Stowe, T.J. 1987. The habitat requirements of some insectivorous birds and the management of sessile oakwoods. Unpublished PhD Thesis, The Botany School, University of Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Thompson, F.R. 2007. Factors affecting nest predation on forest songbirds in North America. Ibis 149 (Suppl. 2): 98–109. doi: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00697.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vickery, J.A., Ewing, S.R., Smith, K.W., Pain, D.J., Bairlein, F., Škorpilová, J. & Gregory, R.D. 2014. The decline of Afro-Palearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes. Ibis 156: 1–22. doi: 10.1111/ibi.12118
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilson, E.O. 1992. The Diversity of Life. Penguin Press, London.
   Google Scholar
• Wilson, J.D., Evans, A.D. & Grice, P.V. 2009. Bird Conservation and Agriculture: The Bird Life of Farmland, Grassland and Heathland. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
   Google Scholar