The relationship between Mute Swan Cygnus olor population trends in Great Britain and environmental change

References

• Baillie, S.R. 2001. The contribution of ringing to the conservation and management of bird populations: a review. Ardea 89: 167–184.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Balls, H., Moss, B. & Irvine, K. 1989. The loss of submerged plants with eutrophication I. Experimental design, water chemistry, aquatic plant and phytoplankton biomass in experiments carried out in ponds in the Norfolk Broadland. Freshw. Biol. 22: 71–87.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Balmer, D., Gillings, S., Caffrey, B., Swann, B., Downie, I. & Fuller, R. 2013. Bird Atlas 2007-11: the breeding and wintering birds of Britain and Ireland. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Beale, C.M., Lennon, J.J., Yearsley, J.M., Brewer, M.J. & Elston, D.A. 2010. Regression analysis of spatial data. Ecol. Lett. 13: 246–264.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beekman, J.H. 1991. Laying date and clutch size in relation to body weight in the Mute Swan Cygnus olor. Wildfowl S1: 279–287.
   Google Scholar
• Birkhead, M. 1982. Causes of mortality in the Mute Swan Cygnus olor on the River Thames. J. Zool. 198: 15–25.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Birkhead, M., Bacon, P.J. & Walter, P. 1983. Factors affecting the breeding success of the Mute Swan Cygnus olor. J. Anim. Ecol. 52: 727–741.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Birkhead, M. & Perrins, C. 1985. The breeding biology of the Mute Swan Cygnus olor on the River Thames with special reference to lead poisoning. Biol. Conserv. 32: 1–11.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowler, D.E., Heldbjerg, H., Fox, A.D., O’Hara, R.B. & Böhning-Gaese, K. 2018. Disentangling the effects of multiple environmental drivers on population changes within communities. J. Anim. Ecol. 87: 1034–1045.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyd, H. & Ogilvie, M. 1964. Losses of Mute Swans in England in the winter of 1962-63. Wildfowl 15: 4.
   Google Scholar
• BTO. 2017. Wetland Bird Survey: Survey Methods, Analysis & Interpretation. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. 2002. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 2nd ed. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
   Google Scholar
• Butler, S.J., Vickery, J.A. & Norris, K. 2007. Farmland biodiversity and the footprint of agriculture. Science 315: 381–384.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chamberlain, D.E., Fuller, R.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Duckworth, J.C. & Shrubb, M. 2001. Changes in the abundance of farmland birds in relation to the timing of agricultural intensification in England and Wales. J. Appl. Ecol. 37: 771–788.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chisholm, H. & Spray, C. 2002. Habitat usage and field choice by mute and whooper swans in the tweed valley, Scotland. Waterbirds Int. J. Waterbird Biol. 25: 177–182.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Civan, A., Worrall, F., Jarvie, H.P., Howden, N.J.K. & Burt, T.P. 2018. Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers. J. Hydrol. 558: 314–327.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Conley, D.J., Paerl, H.W., Howarth, R.W., Boesch, D.F., Seitzinger, S.P., Havens, K.E., Lancelot, C. & Likens, G.E. 2009. Controlling eutrophication: nitrogen and phosphorus. Science 323: 1014–1015.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crauford, P.Q. & Wheeler, T.R. 2009. Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. J. Exp. Bot. 60: 2529–2539.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Defra (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs). 2019a. Structure of the agricultural industry in England and the UK at June - England Annual Time Series: 1983 to 2019. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/structure-of-the-agricultural-industry-in-england-and-the-uk-at-june.
   Google Scholar
• Defra (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs). 2019b. Structure of the agricultural industry in England and the UK at June - Key Crop Areas and Livestock Numbers: UK and Country Level Data 1866-2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/structure-of-the-agricultural-industry-in-england-and-the-uk-at-june.
   Google Scholar
• Donald, P.F., Buckingham, D.L., Moorcroft, D., Muirhead, L.B., Evans, A.D. & Kirby, W.B. 2001. Habitat use and diet of Skylarks Alauda arvensis wintering on lowland farmland in southern Britain. J. Appl. Ecol. 38: 536–547.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• EDINA Agcensus. 2014. Agricultural census [Data set]. https://access.edina.ac.uk/agcensus/.
   Google Scholar
• Environment Agency. 2013. Historic UK Water Quality Sampling Harmonised Monitoring Scheme Detailed Data [Data set]. https://ea.sharefile.com/d-sc3fe58e6bcb47f59.
   Google Scholar
• Environment Agency. 2019. Annual summary of rod licence sales. https://data.gov.uk/dataset/2b303513-bc81-4bef-880f-8a587db9b3a1/annual-summary-of-rod-licence-sales.
   Google Scholar
• Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). 2017. Arcgis Desktop: Release 10.6.1 (Version 10.6.1). Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA, USA.
   Google Scholar
• Esselink, H. & Beekman, J.H. 1991. Between year variation and causes of mortality in the non-breeding population of the Mute Swan Cygnus olor in The Netherlands, with special reference to hunting. Wildfowl S1: 110–119.
   Google Scholar
• European Commission. 2000. Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy. Pub. L. No. 32000L0060, OJ L 327 327.
   Google Scholar
• Frost, T.M., Austin, G.E., Calbrade, N.A., Mellan, H.J., Hearn, R.D., Robinson, A.E., Stroud, D.A., Wotton, S.R. & Balmer, D.E. 2019. Waterbirds in the UK 2017/18: the Wetland Bird Survey. BTO, RSPB and JNCC, in association with WWT. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Frost, T.M., Calbrade, N.A., Birtles, G.A., Hall, C., Robinson, A.E., Wotton, S.R., Balmer, D.E. & Austin, G.E. 2021. Waterbirds in the UK 2019/20: the Wetland Bird Survey. BTO, RSPB and JNCC, in association with WWT. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Goode, D.A. 1981. Lead Poisoning in Mute Swans. Nature Conservancy Council, London.
   Google Scholar
• Green, R.E. 1978. Factors affecting the diet of farmland Skylarks, Alauda arvensis. J. Anim. Ecol. 47: 913–928.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Green, R.E. 1995. Diagnosing causes of bird population declines. Ibis 137: S47–S55.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Green, R.E. 2002. Diagnosing causes of population declines and selecting remedial actions. In Norris, K. & Pain, D.J. (eds) Conserving Bird Biodiversity, 139–156. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. 2017. UKCP09: land and marine past climate and future scenario projections data for the UK [Data set]. http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/094d9c9b9dda42c0aa1a1848af9fb56b.
   Google Scholar
• Hardman, J.A. & Cooper, D.R. 1980. Mute Swans on the Warwickshire Avon – a study of a decline. Wildfowl 31: 29–36.
   Google Scholar
• HMSO. 1986. The Control of Pollution (Anglers’ Lead Weights) Regulations 1986. HMSO, UK.
   Google Scholar
• Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C.A. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Huntley, B., Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C. & Willis, S.G. 2007. A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds. Lynx Edicions, Barcelona.
   Google Scholar
• Inglis, I.R., Isaacson, A.J., Smith, G.C., Haynes, P.J. & Thearle, R.J.P. 1997. The effect on the Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus) of the introduction of oilseed rape into Britain. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 61: 113–121.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jarvie, H.P., Sharpley, A.N., Flaten, D., Kleinman, P.J.A., Jenkins, A. & Simmons, T. 2015. The pivotal role of phosphorus in a resilient water–energy–food security nexus. J. Environ. Qual. 44: 1049–1062.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jordan, J.S. & Bellrose, F.C. 1951. Lead poisoning in wild waterfowl. Illinois Natural History Survey. Biol. Notes 26: 27.
   Google Scholar
• Kiorboe, T. 1980. Distribution and production of submerged macrophytes in Tipper Grund (Ringkobing Fjord, Denmark), and the impact of waterfowl grazing. J. Appl. Ecol. 17: 675–687.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kirby, J., Delany, S. & Quinn, J. 1994. Mute Swans in Great Britain: a review, current status and long-term trends. Hydrobiologia 279: 467–482.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lievesley, P. 1997. Factors affecting the survival and reproductive success of mute swans in the Thames Valley. Ph.D. thesis, University of Oxford, UK.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1978. Agricultural Statistics 1975, United Kingdom. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1980. Agricultural Statistics 1976-77, United Kingdom. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1981. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1978/79. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1982. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1980 and 1981. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1983. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1982. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1984. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1983. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1986a. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1984. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1986b. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1985. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1988. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1986. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1989. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1987. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1990. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1988. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1991. Agricultural Statistics, United Kingdom: 1989. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1992. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1991. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1993. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1992. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1994. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1993. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1995. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1994. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1996. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1995. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1997. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1996. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food). 1998. The Digest of Agricultural Census Statistics: United Kingdom 1997. HMSO, London.
   Google Scholar
• McKay, H.V. & Parrott, D. 2002. Mute swan grazing on winter crops: evaluation of three grazing deterrents on oilseed rape. Int. J. Pest Manag. 48: 189–194.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• National Assembly for Wales. 2003. Digest of Welsh Statistics 2002: agriculture, fishing & forestry. https://gov.wales/digest-welsh-statistics-2002.
   Google Scholar
• Newth, J.L., Cromie, R.L., Brown, M.J., Delahay, R.J., Meharg, A.A., Deacon, C., Norton, G.J., O’Brien, M.F. & Pain, D.J. 2013. Poisoning from lead gunshot: still a threat to wild waterbirds in Britain. European Journal of Wildlife Research 59: 195–204.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ogilvie, M.A. 1967. Population changes and mortality of the Mute Swan in Britain. Wildfowl 18: 64–73.
   Google Scholar
• Ogilvie, M.A. 1981. The Mute Swan in Britain, 1978. Bird Study 28: 87–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ordnance Survey. 2019. OS Terrain 50 [Data set]. https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/business-and-government/products/terrain-50.html.
   Google Scholar
• Owen, M., Atkinson-Willes, G.L. & Salmon, D.G. 1986. Wildfowl in Great Britain. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Pain, D.J., Cromie, R. & Green, R.E. 2015. Poisoning of birds and other wildlife from ammunition-derived lead in the UK. In Delahay, R.J. & Spray, C.J. (eds) Oxford Lead Symposium, 58–84. Edward Grey Institute, Oxford.
   Google Scholar
• Paradis, E., Baillie, S.R., Sutherland, W.J. & Gregory, R.D. 1998. Patterns of natal and breeding dispersal in birds. J. Anim. Ecol. 67: 518–536.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pebesma, E. 2018. Simple features for R: Standardized support for spatial vector data. R. J. 10: 439–446.
   Google Scholar
• Perrins, C.M. 1991. Survival rates of young Mute Swans Cygnus olor. Wildfowl S1: 95–103.
   Google Scholar
• Perrins, C.M., Cousquer, G. & Waine, J. 2003. A survey of blood lead levels in Mute Swans Cygnus olor. Avian Pathol. 32: 205–212.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perrins, C.M., Martin, P. & Broughton, B. 2002. The Impact of Lost and Discarded Fishing Line and Tackle on Mute Swans (No. W1-051/TR). Environment Agency, Bristol.
   Google Scholar
• Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., Sarkar, D. & R Core Team. 2020. nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R package version 3.1-149.
   Google Scholar
• R Core Team. 2020. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.rproject.org/.
   Google Scholar
• R Studio Team. 2020. RStudio: integrated development for R. RStudio, Inc. http://www.rstudio.com/.
   Google Scholar
• Rees, E.C., Kirby, J.S. & Gilburn, A. 1997. Site selection by swans wintering in Britain and Ireland; the importance of habitat and geographic location. Ibis 139: 337–352.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robinson, R.A. & Sutherland, W.J. 2002. Post-war changes in arable farming and biodiversity in Great Britain. J. Appl. Ecol. 39: 157–176.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rowell, H. & Spray, C. 2004. Mute Swan Cygnus Olor (Britain and Ireland Populations) in Britain and Northern Ireland 1960/61-2000/01. Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust/Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Slimbridge.
   Google Scholar
• Scottish Government. 2014. Abstract of Scottish Agricultural Statistics 1982 to 2013. https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Agriculture-Fisheries/PubAbstract/Abstract2013.
   Google Scholar
• Sears, J. 1989. Feeding activity and body condition of Mute Swans Cygnus olor in rural and urban areas of a lowland river system. Wildfowl 40: 88–98.
   Google Scholar
• Sears, J. & Hunt, A.E. 1991. Lead poisoning in Mute Swans Cygnus olor in England. Wildfowl S1: 383–388.
   Google Scholar
• Simpson, D. 2001. Survey of Rod Licence Holders (No. W2-057/TR). Environmental Agency, Bristol.
   Google Scholar
• Simpson, V.R., Hunt, A.E. & French, M.C. 1979. Chronic lead poisoning in a herd of Mute Swans. Environ. Pollut. 18: 187–202.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spray, C.J. & Milne, H. 1988. The incidence of lead poisoning among Whooper and Mute Swans Cygnus cygnus and C. olor in Scotland. Biol. Conserv. 44: 265–281.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tuite, C.H., Hanson, P.R. & Owen, M. 1984. Some ecological factors affecting winter wildfowl distribution on inland waters in England and Wales, and the influence of water-based recreation. J. Appl. Ecol. 21: 41–61.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Eerden, M.R., Drent, R.H., Stahl, J. & Bakker, J.P. 2005. Connecting seas: Western Palaearctic continental flyway for water birds in the perspective of changing land use and climate. Glob. Chang. Biol. 11: 894–908.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J.H., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G.M. & Baillie, S.R. 2002. The migration Atlas: movements of the Birds of Britain and Ireland. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
   Google Scholar
• Wood, K.A., Brown, M.J., Cromie, R.L., Hilton, G.M., Mackenzie, C., Newth, J.L., Pain, D.J., Perrins, C.J. & Rees, E.C. 2019. Regulation of lead fishing weights results in Mute Swan population recovery. Biol. Conserv. 230: 67–74.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wood, S.N. 2019. mgcv: mixed GAM computation vehicle with GCV/AIC/REML smoothness estimation and GAMMs by REML/PQL, R package version 1.8.28.
   Google Scholar
• Woodward, I.D., Massimino, D., Hammond, M.J., Barber, L., Barimore, C., Harris, S.J., Leech, D.I., Noble, D.G., Walker, R.H., Baille, S.R. & Robinson, R.A. 2020. BirdTrends 2020: trends in numbers, breeding success and survival for UK breeding birds. BTO Research Report 732. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford. www.bto.org/birdtrends.
   Google Scholar