REFERENCES
- Abiad, Abdul. 2003. ‘Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach’. Working paper no. 03/32, IMF, Washington, DC. https://bit.ly/2XZ4g7U
- Adu, Raymond, Loannis Litsios and Mark Baimbridge. 2019. ‘Real Exchange Rate and Asymmetric Shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)’. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 59: 232–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.12.005
- Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Robert P. Flood. 1992. ‘Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises’. Staff Papers (IMF) 39 (2): 357–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867063
- Akram, Vaseem and Badri Narayan Rath. 2017. ‘Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in India’. Journal of Financial Economic Policy 9 (4): 414–34. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-12-2016-0093
- Alberola, Enrique. 2003. ‘Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization and Exchange Rate Adjustment in Latin America’. Working paper no. 0309, Banco de España. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.981338
- Alberola, Enrique, Humberto Lopez, Angel J. Ubide and Susana G. Cervero. 1999. ‘Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins”, “Outs”, and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework’. Working paper no. 99/175, IMF, Washington, DC. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=880830
- Alberola, Enrique and David Navia. 2008. ‘Equilibrium Exchange Rates in New EU Members: External Imbalances versus Real Convergence’. Review of Development Economics 12 (3): 605–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00475.x
- Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano. 2009. ‘Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria’. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1333642
- Allegret, Jean-Pierre and Audrey Sallenave. 2014. ‘The Impact of Real Exchange Rates Adjustments on Global Imbalances: A Multilateral Approach’. Economic Modelling 37: 149–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.022
- Alper, Ahmet Murat and İrfan Civcir. 2012. ‘Can Overvaluation Prelude to Crisis and Harm Growth in Turkey’. Journal of Policy Modeling 34 (1): 112–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.08.023
- Arias, Guillaume and Ulf G. Erlandsson. 2004. ‘Regime Switching as an Alternative Early Warning System of Currency Crises: An Application to South-East Asia’. Working paper no. 2004:11, Department of Economics, Lund University. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.195.3772&rep=rep1&type=pdf
- Aziz Jahangir, Francesco Caramazza and Ranil Salgado. 2000. ‘Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements’. Working paper no. 00/67, IMF, Washington, DC. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/30/currency-crises-in-search-of-common-elements-3549
- Baak, Saangjoon. 2012. ‘Measuring Misalignments in the Korean Exchange Rate’. Japan and the World Economy 24 (4): 227–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2012.09.001
- Baffes, John, Stephen A. O’Connell and Ibrahim A. Elbadawi. 1999. ‘Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate’. Working paper no. 1800, Policy Research Working Paper Series, World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1800
- Balassa, Bela. 1964. ‘The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal’. Journal of Political Economy 72 (6): 584–96. https://doi.org/10.1086/258965
- Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, Sophie Béreau and Valérie Mignon. 2009. ‘Robust Estimations of Equilibrium Exchange Rates within the G20: A Panel BEER Approach’. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 56 (5): 608–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2009.00500.x
- Cerra, Valerie and Sweta Chaman Saxena. 2002. ‘Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia’s Currency Crisis’. Review of International Economics 10 (1): 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00315
- Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie D. Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual and Yi Zhang. 2019. ‘Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies’. Journal of International Money and Finance 95: 332–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2018.03.010
- Chui, Michael K. F. 2003. ‘Leading Indicators of Balance-of-Payments Crises: A Partial Review’. Working paper no. 171, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 43 (1): 49. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.392302
- Cipollini, A. and G. Kapetanios. 2009. ‘Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia Using Dynamic Factor Analysis’. Journal of Empirical Finance 16 (2): 188–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JEMPFIN.2008.10.004
- Clark, Peter B. and Ronald MacDonald. 1999. ‘Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs’. In Equilibrium Exchange Rates, edited by Ronald MacDonald and Jerome L. Stein, 285–322. Netherlands: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-4411-7_10
- Couharde, Cécile and Audrey Sallenave. 2013. ‘How Do Currency Misalignments’ Threshold Affect Economic Growth?’. Journal of Macroeconomics 36: 106–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.002
- Coulibaly, Issiaka and Blaise Gnimassoun. 2013. ‘Optimality of a Monetary Union: New Evidence from Exchange Rate Misalignments in West Africa’. Economic Modelling 32: 463–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.038
- Doornik, Jurgen A. and Henrik Hansen. 2008. ‘An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality’. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 70 (s1): 927–39. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00537.x
- Dufrenot, Gilles J. and Etienne B. Yehoue. 2005. ‘Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: A Panel Co-integration and Common Factor Analysis’. Working paper no. 05/164, IMF, Washington, DC. https://bit.ly/3iBGmac
- Edison, Hali. J. 2003. ‘Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System’. International Journal of Finance & Economics 8 (1): 11–53. https://doi. org/10.1002/ijfe.197
- Fabella, Raul V. 1996. ‘The Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate’. Journal of International Money and Finance 15(3): 475–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(96)00015-0
- Feridun, Mete. 2009. ‘Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation’. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 45 (2): 65–81. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X450204
- Ford, J. L., Bagus Santoso and N. J. Horsewood. 2007. ‘Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals Still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing’. Discussion paper no. 07-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. ftp://5284.bham. ac.uk/pub/rtest/pdf/PAPER7.pdf
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Andrew K. Rose. 1996. ‘Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment’. Journal of International Economics 41 (3–4): 351–66. https//doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(96)01441-9
- Frenkel, Jacob. A and Michael L. Mussa. 1985. ‘Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments’. In Handbook of International Economics, edited by Gene M. Grossman and Kenneth Rogoff, 679–747. Vol. 3 of Handbooks in Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1573-4404(85)02005-6
- Goldstein, Morris, Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart. 2000. Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
- Hamilton, James D. 1989. ‘A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle’. Econometrica 57 (2): 357–84. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
- Heriqbaldi, Unggul, Munawar Ismail, David Kaluge and Dwi Budi Santoso. 2014. ‘A Regime Switching Analysis of Indonesia’s Exchange Market Pressure’. Singapore Economic Review 59 (2): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217590814500131
- Hernández, Leonardo and Peter J. Montiel. 2003. ‘Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the “Hollow Middle”?’. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17 (3): 336–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0889-1583(03)00007-8
- Holtemöller, Oliver and Sushanta Mallick. 2013. ‘Exchange Rate Regime, Real Misalignment and Currency Crises’. Economic Modelling 34: 5–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.017
- Iossifov, Plamen K. and Elena Loukoianova. 2007. ‘Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana’. Working paper no. 07/155, IMF, Washington, DC. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1007904
- Jeong, Se-Eun, Jacques Mazier and Jamel Saadaoui. 2010. ‘Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: A FEER Approach’. International Economics 121: 25–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2110-7017(13)60007-4
- Jongwanich, Juthathip. 2008. ‘Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Currency Crisis: Evidence from Thailand’. Applied Economics 40 (3): 373–82. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600570961
- Jongwanich, Juthathip. 2009. ‘Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Misalignment, and Export Performance in Developing Asia’. Working paper no. 151, Asian Development Bank Economics Research Paper Series. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1604839
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. 2003. ‘Varieties of Currency Crises’. Working paper no. 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10193
- Kaminsky, Graciela, Saul Lizondo and Carmen M. Reinhart. 1998. ‘Leading Indicators of Currency Crises’. IMF Staff Papers 45 (1): 1–48. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1852
- Kemme, David M. and Saktinil Roy. 2006. ‘Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?’. Economic Systems 30 (3): 207–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2006.02.001
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin K. 1998. Econometric Modelling of Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions Using MSVAR for Ox. Oxford: Institute of Economics and Statistics and Nuffield College. http://fmwww.bc.edu/ecp/software/ox/Msvardoc.pdf
- Krugman, Paul. 1979. ‘A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises’. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 11 (3): 311–25. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991793
- Kumah, Francis Y. 2011. ‘A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure’. International Journal of Finance & Economics 16 (2): 114–30. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.415
- Liu, Juanxiu. 2009. ‘Exchange Rate Regime and Exchange Rate Performance: Evidence From East Asia’. PhD thesis, University of Glasgow. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/600/
- Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia, Jacques Mazier and Jamel Saadaoui. 2012. ‘Temporal Dimension and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A FEER/BEER Comparison’. Emerging Markets Review 13 (1): 58–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2011.10.001
- Moreno, Ramon. 1999. ‘Was There a Boom in Money and Credit Prior to East Asia’s Recent Currency Crisis?’. Working paper no. PB98-05, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.199.1302&rep=rep1&type=pdf
- Nouira, Ridha and Kahlid Sekkat. 2015. ‘What Determines the Extent of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries?’. International Economics 141: 135–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2015.02.001
- Razmi, Arslan, Martin Rapetti and Peter Skott. 2012. ‘The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Development’. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23 (2):151–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.STRUECO.2012.01.002
- Ribeiro, Rafael S. M., John S. L. McCombie and Gilberto Tadeu Lima. 2019. ‘Does Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Really Promote Economic Growth?’. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 52: 408–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.02.005
- Saadaoui, Jamel, Jacques Mazier and Nabil Aflouk. 2013. ‘On the Determinants of Exchange Rate Misalignments’. Applied Economics Letters 20 (18): 1608–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.829189
- Sachs, Jeffrey, Aaron Tornell and Andrés Velasco. 1996. ‘Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995’. Working paper no. 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5576
- Samuelson, Paul A. 1964. ‘Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems’. Review of Economics and Statistics 46 (2): 145–54. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928178
- Schröder, Marcel. 2013. ‘Should Developing Countries Undervalue Their Currencies?’. Journal of Development Economics 105: 140–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.015
- Sekkat, Khalid. 2016. ‘Exchange Rate Misalignment and Export Diversification in Developing Countries’. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 59: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.08.001
- Sekkat, Khalid and Aristomene Varoudakis. 2000. ‘Exchange Rate Management and Manufactured Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa’. Journal of Development Economics 61 (1): 237–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3878(99)00067-x
- Stein, Jerome L. 1993. ‘The Natural Real Exchange Rate of the United States Dollar, and Determinants of Capital Flows’. In Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates, edited by Jerome L. Stein and Polly Reynolds Allen. New York: Oxford University Press.
- Stein, Jerome L. and Giovanna Paladino. 1999. ‘Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises’. Working paper no. 205, CESifo. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=272608
- Terra, Cristina and Frederico Valladares. 2010. ‘Real Exchange Rate Misalignments’. International Review of Economics & Finance 19 (1): 119–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2009.05.004
- Williamson, John. 1994. Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Wong, Hock Tsen. 2019. ‘Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economy’. Journal of Economic Studies 46 (1): 211–27. https://doi.org/10.1108/jes-07-2017-0181
- You, Kefei and Nicholas Sarantis. 2012. ‘Structural Breaks and the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate of China: A NATREX Approach’. China Economic Review 23 (4): 1146–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2012.08.002