Climate change projections for the surface ocean around New Zealand

References

• Aranda M, Christensen A-S. 2009. The New Zealand’s quota management system (QMS) and its complementary mechanisms. In: HaugeKH, WilsonDC, editor. Comparative evaluations of innovative fisheries management. Netherlands: Springer; p. 19–41.
   Google Scholar
• Bates N, Astor Y, Church M, Currie K, Dore J, Gonzaález-Dávila M, Lorenzoni L, Muller-Karger F, Olafsson J, Santa-Casiano M. 2014. A time-series view of changing ocean chemistry due to ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and ocean acidification. Oceanography. 27(1):126–141. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2014.16
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Behrenfeld MJ, Falkowski PG. 1997. Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration. Limnology and Oceanography. 42:1–20. doi: 10.4319/lo.1997.42.1.0001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bopp L, Resplandy L, Orr J, Doney S, Dunne J, Gehlen M, Halloran P, Heinze C, Ilyina T, Séférian R, et al. 2013. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences. 10:6225–6245. doi: 10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bostock HC, Mikaloff Fletcher SE, Williams MJ. 2013. Estimating carbonate parameters from hydrographic data for the intermediate and deep waters of the Southern Hemisphere oceans. Biogeosciences. 10(10):6199–6213. doi: 10.5194/bg-10-6199-2013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyd PW, Law CS. 2011. An ocean climate change atlas for New Zealand waters. NIWA Information Series. 79:12–13.
   Google Scholar
• Boyd PW, Law CS, Doney SC. 2011. A climate change Atlas for the Ocean. Oceanography. 24(2):13–16. doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.42.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyd PW, Lennartz ST, Glover DM, Doney SC. 2014. Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors. Nature Climate Change. 5(1):71–79. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2441
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyd P, LaRoche J, Gall M, Frew R, McKay RML. 1999. Role of iron, light, and silicate in controlling algal biomass in subantarctic waters SE of New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research. 104(C6):13395–13408. doi:10.1029/1999JC900009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burrell TJ, Maas EW, Hulston DA, Law CS. 2017. Variable response to warming and ocean acidification by bacterial processes in different plankton communities. Aquatic Microbial Ecology. 79:49–62. doi:10.3354/ame01819.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang FH, Northcote L. 2016. Species composition of extant coccolithophores including twenty-six new records from the southwest Pacific near New Zealand. Marine Biodiversity Records. 9:75. doi: 10.1186/s41200-016-0077-7
   Google Scholar
• Cheung WWL, Meeuwig J, Feng M, Harvey ES, Lam V, Langlois TJ, Slawinski D, Sun C, Pauly D. 2012. Climate-change induced tropicalisation of marine communities in Western Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research. 63:415–427. doi:10.1071/MF11205.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chiswell SM, Bradford-Grieve J, Hadfield MG, Kennan SC. 2013. Climatology of surface chlorophyll-a, autumn winter and spring blooms in the SWP Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 118:1003–1018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Currie KI, Hunter KA. 1999. Seasonal variation of surface water CO2 partial pressure in the Southland Current, east of New Zealand. Marine and Freshwater Research. 50(5):375–382. doi: 10.1071/MF98115
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Druel E, Gjerde KM. 2014. Sustaining marine life beyond boundaries: Options for an implementing agreement for marine biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Marine Policy. 49:90–97. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2013.11.023
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dunne JP, John JG, Shevliakova E, Stouffer RJ, Krasting JP, Malyshev SL, Milly PCD, Sentman LT, Adcroft AJ, Cooke W, Dunne KA, et al. 2013. GFDLs ESM2 global coupled climate carbon earth system models. Part II: carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate. 26:2247–2267. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00150.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fernandez D, Bowen M, Carter L. 2014. Intensification and variability of the confluence of subtropical and subantarctic boundary currents east of New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans. 119:1146–1140. doi:10.1002/2013JC009153.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Friedland KD, Stock C, Drinkwater KF, Link JS, Leaf RT, Shank BV, Rose JM, Pilskaln CH, Fogarty MJ, Stergiou KI. 2012. Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of Large Marine Ecosystems. PLoS One. 7(1):e28945. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028945.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frusher SD, Hobday AJ, Jennings SM, Creighton C, D’Silva D, Haward M, Holbrook NJ, Nursey-Bray M, Pecl GT, van Putten EI. 2014. The short history of research in a marine climate change hotspot: from anecdote to adaptation in south-east Australia. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. 24(2):593–611.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hill KL, Rintoul SR, Coleman R, Ridgway KR. 2008. Wind forced low frequency variability of the East Australia Current. Geophysical Research Letters. 35(8). doi:10.1029/2007GL032912.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hoegh-Guldberg O, Cai R, Poloczanska ES, Brewer PG, Sundby S, Hilmi K, Fabry VJ, Jung S. 2014. The ocean. In: Barros VR, CB Field, DJ Dokken, MD Mastrandrea, KJ Mach, TE Bilir, M Chatterjee, KL Ebi, YO Estrada, RC Genova, et al., editors. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of working group ii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. p. 1655–1731.
   Google Scholar
• Hu D, Wu L, Cai W, Gupta AS, Ganachaud A, Qiu B, Gordon AL, Lin X, Chen Z, Hu S, et al. 2015. Pacific western boundary currents and their roles in climate. Nature. 522(7556):299–308. doi: 10.1038/nature14504
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim R, Hendriks IE, Ramajo L, Singh GS, Duarte CM, Gattuso JP. 2013. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Global Change Biology. 19(6):1884–1896. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12179
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Law CS, Bell JJ, Bostock HC, Cornwall CE, Cummings V, Currie K, Davy SK, Gammon M, Hepburn CD, Hurd CL, et al. 2017. Ocean acidification in New Zealand waters. New Zealand Journal of Marine & Freshwater Research. doi:10.1080/00288330.2017.1374983.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Law CS, Rickard GJ, Mikaloff-Fletcher SE, Pinkerton MH, Gorman R, Behrens E, Chiswell SM, Bostock HC, Anderson O, Currie K. 2016. The New Zealand EEZ and South West Pacific. Synthesis Report RA2, Marine Case Study. Climate Changes, Impacts and Implications (CCII) for New Zealand to 2100. MBIE contract C01X1225. 41pp.
   Google Scholar
• Law CS, Ellwood M, Woodward EMS, Marriner A, Bury S, Safi K. 2011. Response of surface nutrient inventories and nitrogen fixation to a tropical cyclone in the South-West Pacific. Limnology Oceanography. 56(4):1372–1385. doi: 10.4319/lo.2011.56.4.1372
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lenton A, McInnes KL, O’Grady JG. 2015. Marine projections of warming and ocean acidification in the Australasian region. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 65(1):S1–S28. doi: 10.22499/2.6501.012
   Google Scholar
• Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Baranova OK, Garcia HE, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Reagan JR, Seidov D, Yarosh ES, Zweng MM. 2012. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m) 1955–2010. Geophysical Research Letters. 39, L10603. doi:10.1029/2012GL051106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacDiarmid AB, Law CS, Pinkerton M, Zeldis J. 2013. New Zealand marine ecosystem services. In: Dymond JR, editor. Ecosystem services in New Zealand – conditions and trends. Lincoln: Manaaki Whenua Press, p. 238–253.
   Google Scholar
• Matear RJ, Chamberlain MA, Sun C, Feng M. 2013. Climate change projection of the Tasman Sea from an eddy-resolving ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans. 118:2961–2976. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20202.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore JK, Lindsay K, Doney SC, Long MC, Misumi K. 2013. Marine ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the community earth system model [CESM1(BGC)]: comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Journal of Climate. 26:9291–9312. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00566.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moutin T, Van Wambeke F, Prieur L. 2012. Introduction to the biogeochemistry from the oligotrophic to the ultraoligotrophic Mediterranean (BOUM) experiment. Biogeosciences. 9(10):3817–3825. doi: 10.5194/bg-9-3817-2012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mullan AB, Stuart SJ, Hadfield MG, Smith MJ. 2010. Report on the Review of NIWA’s ‘Seven-Station’ Temperature Series NIWA Information Series No. 78. 175 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Munday PL, Dixson DL, Donelson JM, Jones GP, Pratchett MS, Devitsina GV, Døving KB. 2009. Ocean acidification impairs olfactory discrimination and homing ability of a marine fish. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106(6):1848–1852. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0809996106
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murphy RJ, Pinkerton MH, Richardson KM, Bradford-Grieve JM, Boyd PW. 2001. Phytoplankton distributions around New Zealand derived from SeaWiFS remotely-sensed ocean colour data. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 35(2):343–362. doi: 10.1080/00288330.2001.9517005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• New Zealand Ministry of Fisheries. 2008. Harvest strategy standard for New Zealand fisheries. 25 p.
   Google Scholar
• Nodder SD, Chiswell SM, Northcote LC. 2016. Annual cycles of deep-ocean biogeochemical export fluxes in subtropical and subantarctic waters, southwest Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 121:2405–2424. doi:10.1002/2015JC011243.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Northcote LC, Neil HL. 2005. Seasonal variations in foraminiferal flux in the Southern Ocean, Campbell Plateau, New Zealand. Marine Micropaleontology. 56(3):122–137. doi: 10.1016/j.marmicro.2005.05.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliver ECJ, Holbrook NJ. 2014. Extending our understanding of South Pacific gyre “spin-up”: modelling the East Australian current in a future climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 119(5):2788–2805.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pinkerton MH. 2017. Impacts of climate change on New Zealand fisheries and aquaculture. In: Phillips B.F., Pérez-Ramírez M., editors. The impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: a global analysis, 1st ed. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
   Google Scholar
• Pinkerton MH, Rickard G, Nodder S, McDonald H. 2016. Climate change impacts and implications: net primary production, particulate flux and impacts on fish species in the New Zealand region. NIWA Report.
   Google Scholar
• Platt T. 1986. Primary production of the ocean water column as a function of surface light intensity: algorithms for remote sensing. Deep-Sea Research (A). 31:1–11.
   Google Scholar
• Poloczanska ES, Brown CJ, Sydeman WJ, Kiessling W, Schoeman DS, Moore PJ, Brander K, Bruno JF, Buckley LB, Burrows MT, et al. 2013. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nature Climate Change. 3:919–925. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1958
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Polovina JJ, Dunne JP, Woodworth PA, Howell EA. 2011. Projected expansion of the Subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil. 986–995. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsq198
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pörtner H-O, Karl D, Boyd PW, Cheung W, Lluch-Cota SE, Nojiri Y, Schmidt DN, Zavialov P. 2014. Ocean systems. In: Field C.B., Barros V.R., Dokken D.J., Mach K.J., Mastrandrea M.D., Bilir T.E., Chatterjee M., Ebi K.L., Estrada Y.O., Genova R.C., et al., editor. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; p. 411–484.
   Google Scholar
• Raven J, Caldeira K, Elderfield H, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Liss P, Riebesell U, Shepherd J, Turley C, Watson A. 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. London: The Royal Society.
   Google Scholar
• Rickard GJ, Behrens E, Chiswell SM. 2016. CMIP5 earth system models with biogeochemistry: an assessment for the southwest Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans. 121:7857–7850. doi:10.1002/2016JC011736.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ridgway KR. 2007. Long-term trend and decadal variability of the southward penetration of the East Australian Current. Geophysical Research Letters. 34, L13613. doi:10.1029/2007GL030393.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Riebesell U, Körtzinger A, Oschlies A. 2009. Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 106(49):20602–20609. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0813291106
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Riebesell U, Tortell PD. 2011. Effects of ocean acidification on pelagic organisms and ecosystems. In: Gattuso J.-P., Hansson L., editors. Ocean acidification. Oxford: Oxford University Press; p. 99–121.
   Google Scholar
• Roberts D, Howard WR, Roberts JL, Bray SG, Moy AD, Trull TW, Hopcroft RR. 2014. Diverse trends in shell weight of three Southern Ocean pteropod taxa collected with Polar Frontal Zone sediment traps from 1997 to 2007. Polar Biology. 37(10):1445–1458. doi: 10.1007/s00300-014-1534-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith RO, Vennell R, Bostock HC, Williams MJ. 2013. Interaction of the subtropical front with topography around southern New Zealand. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers. 76:13–26. doi: 10.1016/j.dsr.2013.02.007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SOPI. 2015. Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries. 2015. Ministry for Primary Industries. p 72. [accessed 2016 March] http://www.mpi.govt.nz
   Google Scholar
• Steinacher M, Joos F, Frölicher TL, Bopp L, Cadule P, Cocco V, Doney SC, Gehlen M, Lindsay K, Moore JK, et al. 2010. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis. Biogeosciences. 7(3):979–970. doi: 10.5194/bg-7-979-2010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sutton PJ, Bowen M, Roemmich D. 2005. Decadal temperature changes in the Tasman Sea. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater. 39(6):1321–1329. doi: 10.1080/00288330.2005.9517396
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sweetman AK, Thurber AR, Smith CR, Levin LA, Mora C, Wei CL, Gooday AJ, Jones DO, Rex M, Yasuhara M, et al. 2017. Major impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems. Elementa Science of the Anthropocene. 5:4. doi:10.1525/elementa.203.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93:485–498. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thurber AR, Sweetman AK, Narayanaswamy BE, Jones DOB, Ingels J, Hansman RL. 2014. Ecosystem functions and services in the deep sea. Biogeoscience. 11:3941–3963. doi:10.5194/bg-11-3941-2014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Turley C, Blackford J, Widdicombe S, Lowe D, Nightingale PD, Rees AP. 2006. Reviewing the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. 8:65–70.
   Google Scholar
• Uddstrom MJ. 2015. Sea Surface temperature data and analysis for the 2015 synthesis report for the ministry for the environment. NIWA Client report. 26pp.
   Google Scholar
• van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, et al. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change. 109:5–31. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weatherdon LV, Magnan AK, Rogers AD, Sumaila UR, Cheung WWL. 2016. Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, and human health: an update. Frontiers in Marine Science. 3:473. doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00048.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar