Seasonal trends in marine heatwaves highlight vulnerable coastal ecoregions and historic change points in New Zealand

References

• Atkinson J, King NG, Wilmes SB, PJ M. 2020. Summer and winter marine heatwaves favor an invasive over native seaweeds. Journal of Phycology. 56:1591–1600.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Banzon V, Smith VTM, Chin TM, Liu C, Hankins W. 2016. A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies. Earth System Science Data. 8:165–176.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Behrens E, Rickard G, Rosier S, Williams J, Morgenstern O, Stone D. 2022. Projections of future marine heatwaves for the oceans around New Zealand using New Zealand's earth system model. Frontiers in Climate. 4:19.
   Google Scholar
• Bell JJ, Smith RO, Micaroni V, Strano F, Balemi CA, Caiger PE, Miller KI, Spyksma AJ, Shears NT. 2022. Marine heat waves drive bleaching and necrosis of temperate sponges. Current Biology. 33(1):158–163.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bowen M, Markham J, Sutton P, Zhang X, Wu Q, Shears NT, Fernandez D. 2017. Interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the southwest Pacific and the role of ocean dynamics. Journal of Climate. 30:7481–7492.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chiswell SM. 2022. Global trends in marine heatwaves and cold spells: the impacts of fixed versus changing baselines. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 127(10). doi:10.1029/2022JC018757.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chiswell SM, BS Grant. 2018. New Zealand coastal sea surface temperature. Prepared for the Ministry for the Environment. NIWA Client Report No: 2018295WN.
   Google Scholar
• Coggins JH, Parsons S, Schiel DR. 2016. An assessment of the ocean wave climate of New Zealand as represented in Kidson's synoptic types. International Journal of Climatology. 36(6):2481–2496.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cook F, Smith RO, Roughan M, Cullen NJ, Shears NT, Bowen M. 2022. Marine heatwaves in shallow coastal ecosystems are coupled with the atmosphere: insights from half a century of daily in situ temperature records. Frontiers in Climate. 4:207.
   Google Scholar
• Costello MJ, Coll M, Danovaro R, Halpin P, Ojaveer H, Miloslavich P. 2010. A census of marine biodiversity knowledge, resources, and future challenges. PLOS one. 5:e12110.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Burgh-Day CO, Spillman CM, Smith G, Stevens CL. 2022. Forecasting extreme marine heat events in key aquaculture regions around New Zealand. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 72(1):58–72.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Department of Conservation and Ministry of Fisheries. 2011. Coastal marine habitats and marine protected areas in the New Zealand Territorial Sea: a broad scale gap analysis. https://www.doc.govt.nz/documents/conservation/marine-and-coastal/marine-protected-areas/coastal-marine-habitats-marine-protected-areas.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• de Souza JMAC, Schaeffer A, Smith GJ, O R. 2021. Marine heatwaves during winter could have dire impacts on New Zealand fisheries and hearld more summer storms. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/marine-heatwaves-during-winter-could-have-dire-impacts-on-new-zealand-fisheries-and-herald-more-summer-storms-167967.
   Google Scholar
• Frölicher TL, Fischer EM, Gruber N. 2018. Marine heatwaves under global warming. Nature. 560:360–364.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hipel KW, McLeod AI. 1994. Time series modelling of water resources and environmental systems. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.
   Google Scholar
• Hobday AJ, Alexander LV, Perkins SE, Smale DA, Straub SC, Oliver ECJ, Benthuysen JA, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Feng M, et al. 2016. A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Progress in Oceanography. 141:227–238.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hobday AJ, Oliver ECJ, Sen Gupta A, Benthuysen JA, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Holbrook NJ, Moore PJ, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T, Smale DA. 2018. Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves. Oceanography. 31:162–173.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holbrook NJ, Scannell HA, Sen Gupta A, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Oliver EC, Alexander LV, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Hobday JA. 2019. A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers. Nature Communications. 10:1–13.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang B, Liu C, Banzon V, Freeman E, Graham G, Hankins B, Smith T, Zhang HM. 2021. Improvements of the daily optimum interpolation sea surface temperature (DOISST) version 2.1. Journal of Climate. 34:2923–2939.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• La Sorte F, Johnston A, Ault TR. 2021. Global trends in the frequency and duration of temperature extremes. Climatic Change. 166:1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leggat WP, Camp EF, Suggett DJ, Heron SF, Fordyce AJ, Gardner S, Deakin L, Turner M, Beeching LM, Kuzhiumparambil U, et al. 2019. Rapid coral decay is associated with marine heatwave mortality events on reefs. Current Biology. 29:2723–2730. e2724.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marin M, Feng M, Phillips HE, Bindoff NL. 2021. A global, multiproduct analysis of coastal marine heatwaves: distribution, characteristics, and long-term trends. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 126. doi:10.1029/2020JC016708.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martínez B, Radford B, Thomsen MS, Connell SD, Carreño F. 2018. Distribution models predict large contractions of habitat-forming seaweeds in response to ocean warming. Diversity and Distributions. 24(10):1350–1366.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moana Project. 2022a. Where was the warmest water? Marine heatwave records this summer. https://www.moanaproject.org/news/where-was-the-warmest-water-marine-heatwave-records-this-summer.
   Google Scholar
• Moana Project. 2022b. New Zealand recorded most impactful marine heatwave in history in 2022 - and this is just the beginning. https://www.moanaproject.org/news/new-zealand-recorded-most-impactful-marine-heatwave-in-history-in-2022-and-this-is-just-the-beginning.
   Google Scholar
• Oliver EC. 2019. Mean warming not variability drives marine heatwave trends. Climate Dynamics. 53(3-4):1653–1659.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliver EC, Benthuysen JA, Darmaraki S, Donat MG, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Schlegel RW, Sen Gupta A. 2021. Marine heatwaves. Annual Review of Marine Science. 13:313–342.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliver EC, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Sen Gupta A, Alexander LV, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Benthuysen JA, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Moore PJ, et al. 2019. Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact. Frontiers in Marine Science. 6:734.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliver EC, Donat MG, Burrows MT, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Sen Gupta A, Hobday AJ, et al. 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications. 9(1):1–12.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Patakamuri S, O’Brien N. 2020. modifiedmk: modified versions of Mann Kendall and Spearman’s Rho trend tests version 1.6.
   Google Scholar
• Pohlert T. 2020. Trend: non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. R package version 1.1.4. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package = trend.
   Google Scholar
• Salinger H, Diamond J, Behrens E, Fernandez D, Fitzharris BB, Herold N, Johnstone P, Kerckhoffs H, Mullan AB, Parker AK, et al. 2020. Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts. Climatic Change. 162:485–506.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salinger H, Renwick J, Behrens E, Mullan AB, Diamond HJ, Sirguey P, Smith RO, Trought MC, Cullen NJ, Fitzharris BB. 2019. The unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwave in the New Zealand region 2017/18: drivers, mechanisms and impacts. Environmental Research Letters. 14:0044023.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schiel DR, Alestra T, Gerrity S, Orchard S, Dunmore R, Pirker J, Lilley S, Tait L, Hickford M, Thomsen MS. 2019. The Kaikōura earthquake in southern New Zealand: loss of connectivity of marine communities and the necessity of a cross-ecosystem perspective. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems. 29:1520–1534.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schiel DR, Lilley SA, South PM, Coggins JH. 2016. Decadal changes in sea surface temperature, wave forces and intertidal structure in New Zealand. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 548:77–95.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schlegel RW, Oliver ECJ, Wernberg T, Smit AJ. 2017. Nearshore and offshore co-occurrence of marine heatwaves and cold-spells. Progress in Oceanography. 151:189–205.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schlegel RW, Smit AJ. 2018. Heatwaver: A central algorithm for the detection of heatwaves and cold-spells. Journal of Open Source Software. 3(27):821.
   Google Scholar
• Sen Gupta A, Thomsen M, Benthuysen JA, Hobday AJ, Oliver E, Alexander LV, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Feng M, Holbrook NJ, et al. 2020. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwave events. Scientific Reports. 10:19359.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shanks RL, Valley JR, Jarvis MA, Salant C, Sutherland DA, Lamont EI, Hainey MA, Emlet RB. 2020. Marine heat waves, climate change, and failed spawning by coastal invertebrates. Limnology and Oceanography. 65:627–636.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shears NT, Bowen MM. 2017. Half a century of coastal temperature records reveal complex warming trends in western boundary currents. Scientific Reports. 7:1–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smale DA, Wernberg T, Oliver ECJ, Thomsen MS, Harvey BP, Straub SC, Burrows MT, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Donat MG, et al. 2019. Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. Nature Climate Change. 9(4):306–312.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smit AJ, Roberts M, Anderson RJ, Dufois F, Dudley SF, Bornman TG, Olbers J, Bolton JJ. 2013. A coastal seawater temperature dataset for biogeographical studies: large biases between in situ and remotely-sensed data sets around the coast of South Africa. PLOS one. 8:e81944.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith KE, Burrows MT, Hobday AJ, King NG, Moore PJ, Sen Gupta A, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T, Smale DA. 2022. Biological impacts of marine heatwaves. Annual Review of Marine Science. 15:119–145.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith KE, Burrows MT, Hobday AJ, Sen Gupta A, Moore PJ, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T, Smale DA. 2021. Socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves: global issues and opportunities. Science, 374. doi:10.1126/science.abj3593.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spalding MD, Fox HE, Allen GR, Davidson N, Ferdaña ZA, Finlayson M, Halpern BS, Jorge MA, Lombana AL, Sara AL. 2007. Marine ecoregions of the world: a bioregionalization of coastal and shelf areas. Bioscience. 57:573–583.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stevens CL, Spillman CM, Behrens E, Broekhuizen N, Holland P, Matthews Y, Noll B, O'Callaghan JM, Rampal N, Smith RO, Soltanzadeh I. 2022. Horizon scan on the benefits of ocean seasonal forecasting in a future of increasing marine heatwaves for Aotearoa New Zealand. Frontiers in Climate. 4:907919.
   Google Scholar
• Strydom S, Murray K, Wilson S, Huntley B, Rule M, Heithaus M, Bessey C, Kendrick GA, Burkholder D, Fraser MW, Zdunic K. 2020. Too hot to handle: unprecedented seagrass death driven by marine heatwave in a world heritage area. Global Change Biology. 26:3525–3538.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sutton PJ, Bowen M. 2019. Ocean temperature change around New Zealand over the last 36 years. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 53:305–326.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tait LW, Thoral F, Pinkerton MH, Thomsen MS, Schiel DR. 2021. Loss of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, driven by marine heatwaves and exacerbated by poor water clarity in New Zealand. Frontiers in Marine Science. 8:721087.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomsen MS, Mondardini L, Alestra T, Gerrity S, Tait LW, South PW, Lilley SA, Schiel DR. 2019. Local extinction of bull kelp (Durvillaea spp.) due to a marine heatwave. Frontiers in Marine Science. 6:84.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomsen MS, Mondardini L, Thoral F, Gerber D, Montie S, South PM, Tait LW, Orchard S, Alestra T, Schiel DR. 2021a. Cascading impacts of earthquakes and extreme heatwaves have destroyed populations of an iconic marine foundation species. Diversity and Distributions. 27(12):2369–2383.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomsen MS, Montie S, Gerber D, Thoral F, South PW, Tait LW, Wernberg T, Smale DA, Schiel DR. 2021b. Impacts of marine heatwaves: what are they, what have they done and what can we expect in the future? Coastal News. 76:3–6.
   Google Scholar
• Thomsen MS, South PM. 2019. Communities and attachment networks associated with primary, secondary and alternative foundation species; a case study of stressed and disturbed stands of southern bull kelp. Diversity. 11(4):56.
   Google Scholar
• Thoral F, Montie S, Thomsen MS, Tait LW, Pinkerton MH, Schiel DR. 2022. Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms. Scientific Reports. 12:1–13.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wernberg T, Bennett S, Babcock RC, de Bettignies T, Cure K, Depczynski M, Dufois F, Fromont J, Fulton CJ, Hovey RK, et al. 2016. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem. Science. 353:169–172.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wernberg T, Smale DA, Tuya F, Thomsen MS, Langlois TJ, de Bettignies T, Bennett S, Rousseaux CS. 2013. An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot. Nature Climate Change. 3:78–82.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Woo HJ, Park KA. 2020. Inter-comparisons of daily sea surface temperatures and in-situ temperatures in the coastal regions. Remote Sensing. 12(10):1592. doi:10.3390/rs12101592.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yue S, Wang C. 2004. The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resources Management. 18:201–218.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar