Liberals should pray for rain: weather, opportunity costs of voting and electoral outcomes in South Korea

References

• Arellano, M. 2003. Panel Data Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Arnold, F., and R. Freier. 2016. “Only Conservatives are Voting in the Rain: Evidence from German Local and State Elections.” Electoral Studies 41: 216–221. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Artés, J. 2014. “The Rain in Spain: Turnout and Partisan Voting in Spanish Elections.” European Journal of Political Economy 34: 126–141. doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.01.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bassi, A. 2013. “Weather, Mood, and Voting: An Experimental Analysis of the Effect of Weather beyond Turnout.” Available at SSRN 2273189. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2273189.
   Google Scholar
• Brady, H. E., and J. E. Mcnulty. 2011. “Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place.” American Political Science Review 105 (1): 115–134. doi:10.1017/S0003055410000596.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brady, H. E., S. Verba, and K. L. Schlozman. 1995. “Beyond Ses: A Resource Model of Political Participation.” The American Political Science Review 89 (2): 271–294. doi:10.2307/2082425.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Campbell, A., P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller, and D. E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Caplan, B. 2011. The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies-New Edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cheatwood, D. 1995. “The Effects of Weather on Homicide.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 11 (1): 51–70. doi:10.1007/BF02221300.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chung, J. M. 2012. “Korean Voting Behavior and Generation in the 2010 Local Elections [in Korean].” Korean Political Studies 21 (2): 1–21.
   Google Scholar
• Cohen, A. 2011. “The Photosynthetic President: Converting Sunshine into Popularity.” The Social Science Journal 48 (2): 295–304. doi:10.1016/j.soscij.2010.11.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohn, E. G. 1990. “Weather and Crime.” British Journal of Criminology 3 (1): 51–64. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a047980.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cornelis, I., A. Van Hiel, A. Roets, and M. Kossowska. 2009. “Age Differences in Conservatism: Evidence on the Mediating Effects of Personality and Cognitive Style.” Journal of Personality 77 (1): 51–88. doi:10.1111/jopy.2009.77.issue-1.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cox, G. W., and M. C. Munger. 1989. “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections.” The American Political Science Review 83 (1): 217. doi:10.2307/1956441.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crittenden, J. 1962. “Aging and Party Affiliation.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26: 648–657. doi:10.1086/267134.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cunningham, M. R. 1979. “Weather, Mood, and Helping Behavior: Quasi Experiments with the Sunshine Samaritan.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (11): 1947–1956. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.1947.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Downs, A. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
   Google Scholar
• Dubois, E., and C. B. Lakhdar. 2007. “More on the Seasonal Determinants of Turnout: Holidays and French Presidential Elections.” French Politics 5 (2): 144–159. doi:10.1057/palgrave.fp.8200123.
   Google Scholar
• Eisinga, R., M. T. Grotenhuis, and B. Pelzer. 2012a. “Weather Conditions and Political Party Vote Share in Dutch National Parliament Elections, 19712010.” International Journal of Biometeorology 56 (6): 1161–1165. doi:10.1007/s00484-011-0504-8.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eisinga, R., M. T. Grotenhuis, and B. Pelzer. 2012b. “Weather Conditions and Voter Turnout in Dutch National Parliament Elections, 19712010.” International Journal of Biometeorology 56 (4): 783–786. doi:10.1007/s00484-011-0477-7.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fowler, A. 2015. “Regular Voters, Marginal Voters and the Electoral Effects of Turnout.” Political Science Research and Methods 3 (2): 205–219. doi:10.1017/psrm.2015.18.
   Google Scholar
• Fraga, B., and E. Hersh. 2011. “Voting Costs and Voter Turnout in Competitive Elections.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5 (4): 339–356. doi:10.1561/100.00010093.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gatrell, J. D., and G. D. Bierly. 2002. “Weather and Voter Turnout: Kentucky Primary and General Elections, 1990-2000.” Southeastern Geographer 42 (1): 114–134. doi:10.1353/sgo.2002.0007.
   Google Scholar
• Geys, B. 2006. “‘rational’ Theories of Voter Turnout: A Review.” Political Studies Review 4 (1): 16–35. doi:10.1111/j.1478-9299.2006.00034.x.
   Google Scholar
• Gomez, B. T., T. G. Hansford, and G. A. Krause. 2007. “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” The Journal of Politics 69 (3): 649–663. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00565.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Han, J., and H.-G. Kang. 2009. “Two Perspectives on Explaining Variations in Turnout Rate in the 18th Korean General Election [in Korean].” Korean Political Science Review 18 (1): 51–82.
   Google Scholar
• Hansford, T. G., and B. T. Gomez. 2010. “Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 104 (2): 268–288. doi:10.1017/S0003055410000109.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Horiuchi, Y., and W. C. Kang. 2018. “Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited.” American Politics Research 46 (5): 869–889. doi:10.1177/1532673X17745631.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hwang, A.-R. 1997. “The Effect of District Characteristics on Turnout: An Analysis of the 15th Legislative Election [in Korean].” Korean Political Science Review 30 (4): 285–298.
   Google Scholar
• Isen, A. M., and R. Patrick. 1983. “The Effect of Positive Feelings on Risk Taking: When the Chips are Down.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 31 (2): 194–202. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(83)90120-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jung, S. H. 2012. “The Socioeconomic Status Model and Voter Turnout in Korean Local Elections [in Korean].” Korean Political Studies 21 (1): 27–54.
   Google Scholar
• Kang, W. C. 2016. “Election-Day Weather and Party Votes [in Korean].” Korea Party Studies Review 15 (1): 107–130.
   Google Scholar
• Kang, W.-T. 2003. Electoral Politics in Korea: Ideology, Region, Generation and Media [in Korean]. Seoul: Puruen Gil.
   Google Scholar
• Keller, M. C., B. L. Fredrickson, O. Ybarra, S. Cote, K. Johnson, J. Mikels, A. Conway, and T. Wager. 2005. “A Warm Heart and A Clear Head: The Contingent Effects of Weather on Mood and Cognition.” Psychological Science 16 (9): 724–731. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01602.x.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knack, S. 1994. “Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote.” Public Choice 79 (1–2): 187–209. doi:10.1007/BF01047926.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Korea Meteorological Administration. 2010. Annual Climatological Report [in Korean]. Seoul: Korea Meteorological Administration.
   Google Scholar
• Kuhnen, C. M., and B. Knutson. 2011. “The Influence of Affect on Beliefs, Preferences, and Financial Decisions.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 46 (3): 605–626. doi:10.1017/S0022109011000123.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamare, J. R. 2013. “Mobilization and Voter Turnout: Should Canvassers Worry about the Weather?” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (03): 580–586.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, K. Y. 2011. Korean Voting Behavior [in Korean]. Seoul: Humanitas Books.
   Google Scholar
• Leighley, J. E., and J. Nagler. 2013. Who Votes Now?: Demographics, Issues, Inequality, and Turnout in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Leslie, P. A., and B. Ari. 2018. “Could Rainfall Have Swung the Result of the Brexit Referendum?” Political Geography 65: 134–142. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.05.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lind, J. T. 2014. “Rainy Day Politics an Instrumental Variables Approach to the Effect of Parties on Political Outcomes.” CESIFO WORKING PAPER, no. 4911.
   Google Scholar
• Markus, G. B. 1983. “Dynamic Modeling of Cohort Change: The Case of Political Partisanship.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (4): 717–739. doi:10.2307/2110890.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Matsusaka, J. G., and F. Palda. 1999. “Voter Turnout: How Much Can We Explain?” Public Choice 98 (3): 431–446. doi:10.1023/A:1018328621580.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merrifield, J. 1993. “The Institutional and Political Factors that Influence Voter Turnout.” Public Choice 77 (3): 657–667. doi:10.1007/BF01047865.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Murray, K. B., F. D. Muro, A. Finn, and P. P. Leszczyc. 2010. “The Effect of Weather on Consumer Spending.” Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 17 (6): 512–520. doi:10.1016/j.jretconser.2010.08.006.
   Google Scholar
• National Election Committee. 2012a. The Analysis of Turnout in the 19th Legislative Election [in Korean]. Gwacheon: National Election Committee.
   Google Scholar
• National Election Committee. 2012b. A Voter Survey on the 19th Legislative Election [in Korean]. Gwacheon: National Election Committee.
   Google Scholar
• Neundorf, A., and R. G. Niemi. 2014. “Beyond Political Socialization: New Approaches to Age, Period, Cohort Analysis.” Electoral Studies 33: 1–6. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.06.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Noh, H., J. Song, and W.-T. Kang. 2013. “Generation Effects Remain Salient? an Analysis of the South Korean Presidential Elections between 1997 and 2012 [in Korean].” Korea Party Studies Review 12 (1): 113–140.
   Google Scholar
• Park, K. 2014. “Determinants of Voter Turnouts in Different Types of Elections: An Analysis of Aggregate Data of Election Districts in Seoul (1987–2010) [in Korean].” Journal of Korean Party Studies 13 (1): 95–121.
   Google Scholar
• Parrott, W. G., and J. Sabini. 1990. “Mood and Memory under Natural Conditions: Evidence for Mood Incongruent Recall.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59 (2): 321–336. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.59.2.321.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Persson, M., A. Sundell, and Ö. Richard. 2014. “Does Election Day Weather Affect Voter Turnout? Evidence from Swedish Elections.” Electoral Studies 33: 335–342. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.021.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sanders, E. 1980. “On the Costs, Utilities and Simple Joys of Voting.” The Journal of Politics 42 (3): 854–863. doi:10.2307/2130557.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sanders, J. L., and M. S. Brizzolara. 1982. “Relationships between Weather and Mood.” The Journal of General Psychology 107 (1): 155–156. doi:10.1080/00221309.1982.9709917.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saunders, E. M. 1993. “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather.” The American Economic Review 83 (5): 1337–1345.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Scala, D. J. 2003. Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Shachar, R., and B. Nalebuff. 1999. “Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation.” American Economic Review 89 (3): 525–547. doi:10.1257/aer.89.3.525.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sovey, A. J., and D. P. Green. 2011. “Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers’ Guide.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (1): 188–200. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00477.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stockemer, D., and M. Wigginton. 2018. “Fair Weather Voters: Do Canadians Stay at Home When the Weather Is Bad?” International Journal of Biometeorology 62 (6): 1027–1037. doi:10.1007/s00484-018-1506-6.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Strate, J. M., C. J. Parrish, C. D. Elder, and C. Ford. 1989. “Life Span Civic Development and Voting Participation.” The American Political Science Review 83 (2): 443–464. doi:10.2307/1962399.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tollison, R. D., and T. D. Willett. 1973. “Some Simple Economics of Voting and Not Voting.” Public Choice 16 (1): 59–71. doi:10.1007/BF01718807.
   Google Scholar
• Van Assche, J., A. Van Hiel, B. J. Jonas Stadeus, D. Bushman, D. Cremer, and A. Roets. 2017. “When the Heat Is On: The Effect of Temperature on Voter Behavior in Presidential Elections.” Frontiers in Psychology 8: 929. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00929.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilson, G. 1973. The Psychology of Conservatism. London: Academic Press.
   Google Scholar
• Wolfinger, R. E., and S. J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven: Yale University Press.
   Google Scholar