A fertility analysis of New Zealand marriage cohorts

Footnotes

• 1921 . Reports on the Vital Statistics of New Zealand, annually, compiled i n the Department of Statistics [Census and Statistics] , Wellington : Government Printer .
   Google Scholar
• Sixty years ago G. v. Mayr Statistik and Gesellschaftslehre Tübingen 1897 11 185 185 suggested the construction of fertility tables by marriage cohorts (Jahresgrundstock van Ehen). An analysis of fertility, he said, could be carried out either by a direct and strictly historical method, or by an indirect one. The two methods correspond to real cohort versus synthetic cohort analysis. The disadvantages of the direct method, v. Mayr foresaw, were the long periods of observation needed and the difficulty of assembling the necessary data on dissolution of marriages and on migration.
   Google Scholar
• A longitudinal spacing study of New Zealand fertility can conveniently be based on records of family benefits under social security, the benefit being payable to the mother for each child from birth to the age of 16 years.—Only once to my knowledge did the Government Statistician produce information on spacing Dominion Statistics Report 1918 1 39 40 namely, average intervals between successive birth orders specific for family size of all mothers with children born in 1918. This cross section showed for families of 10 or more children living the shortest intervals, which steadily increased as the number of children decreased.
   Google Scholar
• The discussion of the point by Glass D. V. Grebenik E. The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 H.M.S.O London 1954 97 97 part 1, ch. 6, par. 3 2 confirms the view that a nuptiality analysis should not be made incidentally to a fertility analysis but had better be left to a separate investigation. At this stage, the connection had merely been tested by a survey of median ages at marriage and age-specific marriage rates.
   Google Scholar
• This refers in the first instance to birth-order specific rates at later durations of the incomplete marriage cohorts. One of the difficulties that will have to be met later is the fact that from 1952 the New Zealand marriage statistics, tabulated by ages of parties and by previous marital status of bride, refer to both non-Maori and Maori marriages. The merger took place on the passing of the Maori Purposes Act, 1951 Cf. Vital Statistics Report 1955 7 7 Introd
   Google Scholar
• After 20 years' duration of marriage, suggested as a convenient period by Glass D. V. Grebenik E. The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 H.M.S.O London 1954 part 1, Summary, par. 14, p. 2, fertility was virtually completed as far as first, second and third children are concerned. For fourth children it was 99% complete, for fifth children between 99 and 97%, for sixth children 97 to 94%, for seventh children 94 to 9o%. These figures were ascertained for the complete cohorts from maternities by birth order at durations 20 or more. The restriction to durations 0-19 was therefore considered a justifiable simplification.
   Google Scholar
• Cf Statistical Review of England and Wales “Estimates of married women exposed to risk of fertility at various durations of marriage” 1940-1945 Text, vol. 11, Civil (London, H.M.S.O., 1951), Appendix 11 (pp. 193-203)
   Google Scholar
• For further discussion Glass D. V. Grebenik E. The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 H.M.S.O London 1954 ch. 4, par. 5, p. 45, and App. 1 to ch. 7, pp. 260 ff., and E. Grebenik, pp. 718 in vol. i1, The Sources and Nature of the Statistics of the United Kingdom. Edited for the Council of the Royal Statistical Society by M. G. Kendall, 1957
   Google Scholar
• The method had been worked out independently as probably sufficient for the purpose when I found it confirmed in almost identical terms by Karmel P. H. “Fertility and Marriages, Australia, 1933-1942” Economic Record 1944 June 74 80
   Google Scholar
• The term “segmental” was borrowed from Glass D. V. Grebenik E. The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 H.M.S.O London 1954 part 1, ch. 6, par. 9, p. 81
   Google Scholar
• Glass , D. V. and Grebenik , E. 1954 . The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 , London : H.M.S.O . ch. 6, tables 5 to 7, pp. 79-81. The notation “mn” is that used by L. Henry.
   Google Scholar
• Henry , L. 1953 . Fécondité des mariages, Nouvelle méthode de mesure 22 ff – 22 ff . Paris
   Google Scholar
• Henry , L. 1953 . Fécondité des mariages, Nouvelle méthode de mesure 125 – 125 . Paris and Population x, no. 3 (1955), pp. 506 ff (“Pour les générations ou promotions réelles ... le calcul de cet indice ne présente aucune difficulté.”)
   Google Scholar
• 1930-1952 . Ratios based on period data subjected to “weighting”, e.g. the table of Italian ratios
   Google Scholar
• Henry , L. 1953 . Fécondité des mariages, Nouvelle méthode de mesure 508 – 508 . Paris seem to obscure this aspect
   Google Scholar
• In his review of Henry's work in Le Démographe 1955 Apr. no. 1 N. B. Ryder appealed to demographers to come forward with material of the kind presented.
   Google Scholar
• The problem has already been discussed by Whelpton P. K. Cohort Fertility Princeton 1954 123/4 123/4
   Google Scholar
• For a similar observation that the couples marrying at very low ages, who are by inference those who did not postpone marriage, experienced higher fertility by birth order, see Glass D. V. Grebenik E. The Trend and Pattern of Fertility in Great Britain. A Report on the Family Census 1946 H.M.S.O London 1954 95 95 part 1, ch. 6, par. 28
   Google Scholar
• Derrick , V. P. A. 1927 . Observations, etc. . Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , lviii July : 144 – 145 .
   Google Scholar
• Cf. Ryder N. B. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly Jan 1956 xxxiv 1 15 15
   Google Scholar