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Original Articles

Military deception, strategic surprise, and conventional deterrence: A political analysis of Egypt and Israel, 1971–73

Pages 94-121 | Published online: 24 Jan 2008

Notes

  • Whaley , Barton . 1969 . Stratagem, Deception, and Surprise in War , Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Center for International Studies .
  • Quester , George . 1977 . Offense and Defense in the International System , New York : John Wiley .
  • Betts , Richard K. Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution . forthcoming), Chapter 7.
  • Wilensky , Harold . 1967 . Organizational Intelligence , New York : Basic Books .
  • Chan , Steve . ‘The Intelligence of Stupidity: Understanding Failures in Strategic Warning’ . American Political Science Review , 73 171 – 80 .
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  • 1972 . Newsweek , 7 Aug.
  • de Borchgrave , Arnaud . 1973 . Newsweek , 9 April
  • Heikal , Mohamed . 1975 . The Road to Ramadan , 180 – 82 . New York : Quadrangle Books .
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . 1977 . In Search of Identity , 234 – 237 . New York : Harper & Row .
  • el‐Shazly , Saad . 1980 . The Crossing of the Suez , 174 – 181 . San Francisco : American Mideast Research .
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . 1974 . Ahbar al Yom , 3 Aug.
  • 1974 . Middle East News Agency (MENA) , 22 Sept.
  • 1974 . MENA , 8 Oct.
  • Ismail , Ahmed . 1974 . Al‐Hawadess , 16 Aug.
  • Snyder , Glenn and Diesing , Paul . 1977 . Conflict Among Nations , 186 Princeton : Princeton University Press .
  • Maxwell , Stephen . 1968 . “ ‘Rationality in Deterrence’ ” . In Adelphi Papers , Vol. 50 , 10 London : Institute for Strategic Studies .
  • Morgan , Patrick M. 1977 . Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis , 106 Beverly Hills, Calif. : Sage Library of Social Science .
  • George , Alexander L. and Smoke , Richard . 1974 . Deterrence in American Foreign Policy , 526 New York : Columbia University Press .
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . 1971 . Speech to the People's Assembly . Feb. 4 1971 .
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 229 op. cit.,
  • Kissinger , Henry . 1979 . The White House Years , 1293 Boston : Little, Brown, & Co. .
  • 1973 . MENA , 3 May
  • Mearsheimer , John . 1980 . The Theory and Practice of Conventional Deterrence , New York : Cornell University, Ithaca . unpublished doctoral dissertation,
  • Rosecrance , Richard . 1980 . “ ‘Deterrence and Vulnerability in the Pre‐Nuclear Era’ ” . In Adelphi Papers , Vol. 160 , 14 – 30 . London Institute for Strategic Studies .
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 219 – 221 . op. cit.,
  • el‐Shazly , Saad Lt.‐Gen. 1980 . The Crossing of the Suez , 173 – 175 . San Francisco : American Mideast Research .
  • Heikal , Mohamed . The Road to Ramadan 20 op. cit.,
  • el‐Badri , Hassan Maj.‐Gen. , el‐Magdoub , Taha Maj.‐Gen. and Zohdy , Mohammed Dia el‐Din Maj.‐Gen. 1978 . The Ramadan War, 1973 , 20 Dunn Loring, Virginia : T.N. Dupuy Associates, Inc. .
  • Heikal , Mohamed . The Road to Ramadan 117 155 – 156 . op. cit.,
  • Heikal , Mohamed . 1972 . ‘Soviet Aims and Egypt’ . Al‐Ahram , 30 June
  • Heikal , Mohamed . The Road to Ramadan 174 op. cit.,
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 229 op.cit.,
  • Newsweek and May Day Speech . 1973 . 1 May .
  • 1973 . MENA , 3 May
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 246 op. cit.,
  • Heikal , Mohamed . 1978 . The Sphinx and the Commissar: The Rise and Fall of Soviet Influence in the Middle East , New York : Harper & Row .
  • 1974 . MENA , 3 April
  • Heikal , Mohamed . The Road to Ramadan 181 op. cit.,
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . 1973 . May Day Speech . May 1 1973 .
  • 1973 . MENA , 3 May
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 214 op. cit.,
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . 1974 . Ahbar al Yom , 3 August
  • 1974 . MENA , 22 Sept.
  • 1974 . MENA , 8 Oct.
  • el‐Sadat , Anwar . In Search of Identity 249 op. cit.,
  • Bartov , Hanoch . 1978 . Dado — 48 Years and 20 Days , Tel Aviv : Ma'ariv Book Guild .
  • 1973 . Newsweek , 9 April
  • 1973 . FBIS, Middle East , 26 Mar.
  • Dayan , Moshe . 1976 . The Story of My Life , 381 London : Weidenfeld and Nicolson .
  • 1974 . Agranat Report, A Partial Report by the Commission of Inquiry to the Government of Israel , 9 State of Israel : Government Press Office, April 2 .
  • 1973 . Al‐Thawra , 4 Oct.
  • 1973 . The Jerusalem Post Weekly , 11 Dec.
  • Hareven , Alouph . 1978 . ‘Disturbed Hierarchies: Israeli Intelligence in 1954 and 1973’ . The Jerusalem Quarterly , 9 Fall : 3 – 19 .
  • Janis , Irving L. 1972 . Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign Policy Decisions and Fiascoes , Boston : Houghton Mifflin .
  • Weizman , Ezer . 1976 . On Eagles’ Wings , Jerusalem : Steimatzky's Agency Ltd. .
  • Rabin , Yitzhak . 1979 . The Rabin Memoirs , Boston : Little, Brown, and Co. .
  • Heikal , Mohamed . 1975 . The Road to Ramadan , 17 New York : Quadrangle Books .
  • Handel , Michael . 1976 . “ ‘Perception, Deception, and Surprise: the Case of the Yom Kippur War’ ” . In Jerusalem Papers on Peace Problems Vol. 19 , Jerusalem
  • Shlaim , Avraham . 1976 . ‘Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War’ . World Politics , 28 ( 3 ) April : 348 – 380 .
  • Betts , Richard K. 1981 . Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defence Planning , Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution .
  • Heuer , Richards C. Jr. 1979–1980 . ‘Improving Intelligence Analysis: Some Insights on Data, Concepts, and Management in the Intelligence Community’ . The Bureaucrat , Winter : 1 – 11 .

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