Coercion and military strategy: Why denial works and punishment doesn't

Notes

• 1966 . “ ‘Coercion’ is a more natural English word which I use to refer to the same concept as Thomas C. Schelling's ‘compellencc’ ” . In Arms and Influence , New Haven, CT : Yale UP .
   Google Scholar
• Fuller , J. F. C. 1923 . The Reformation of War , NY : Dutton .
   Google Scholar
• Hart , B. H. Lidell . 1925 . Paris or the Future of War , London : Kegan Paul .
   Google Scholar
• Dou‐het , Guilio . 1921 . Command of the Air Rome
   Google Scholar
• Slessor , J. C. 1936 . Air Power and Armies , London : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Speier , Hans . 1957 . ‘Soviet Atomic Blackmail and the North Atlantic Alliance’ . World Politics , 9 ( 3 ) April : 307 – 28 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nitze , Paul . 1956 . ‘Atoms, Strategy and Policy’ . Foreign Affairs , 34 ( 2 ) Jan. : 187 – 98 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Horelick , Arnold L. and Rush , Myron . 1966 . Strategic Power and Soviet Foreign Policy , Chicago : Univ. of Chicago Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gray , Colin . 1971 . ‘What RAND Hath Wrought’ . Foreign Policy , Fall : 111 – 29 .
   Google Scholar
• Brodie , Bernard . 1971–72 . ‘Why Were We So (Strategically) Wrong?’ . Foreign Policy , Winter : 151 – 87 .
   Google Scholar
• Ellsberg , Daniel . 1968 . “ ‘Theory and Practice of Blackmail’ ” . In P‐3883 , Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corp. .
   Google Scholar
• Kaplan , Morton . 1959 . Strategy of Limited Retaliation , Princeton : Center of Int'l Studies, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and Int'l Affairs, Princeton Univ. .
   Google Scholar
• Schelling , Thomas C. 1960 . Strategy of Conflict , Cambridge : Harvard UP .
   Google Scholar
• George , Alexander . 1965 . “ ‘Some Thoughts on Graduated Escalation’ ” . RM‐4844‐PR Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corp. .
   Google Scholar
• George , William Simons and Hall , David . 1971 . Limits of Coercive Diplomacy , NY : Little, Brown .
   Google Scholar
• Iklé , Fred C. 1971 . Every War Must End , NY : Columbia UP .
   Google Scholar
• Betts , Richard K. 1987 . Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance , Washington, DC : The Brookings Inst. .
   Google Scholar
• Art , Robert J. 1980 . ‘To What Ends Military Power?’ . International Security , 4 ( 2 ) Spring : 3 – 35 .
   Google Scholar
• Schelling . Arms and Influence 59 – 91 . (note 1)
   Google Scholar
• Baldwin , David . 1985 . Economic State‐scraft , Princeton : Princeton UP .
   Google Scholar
• Conybeare , John . 1987 . Trade Wars , NY : Columbia UP .
   Google Scholar
• Mastanduno , Michael . 1985 . ‘Strategies of Economic Containment’ . World Politics , 37 ( 4 ) July : 503 – 31 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Snyder , Glenn . 1959 . Deterrence by Punishment and Denial , Research Monograph No.1 Princeton : Princeton Univ., Center of Int'l Studies .
   Google Scholar
• Snyder , Glenn H. and Diesing , Paul . 1977 . Conflict Among Nations , Princeton : Princeton up .
   Google Scholar
• Iklé , Fred C. 1964 . How Nations Negotiate , NY : Harper & Row .
   Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert . 1970 . The Logic of Images in International Relations , Princeton : Princeton up .
   Google Scholar
• Osgood , Robert E. and Tucker , Robert W. 1967 . Force, Order and Justice , Baltimore, MD : The Johns Hopkins up .
   Google Scholar
• Mack , Andrew . 1975 . ‘Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars’ . World Politics , 27 : 175 – 200 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert . 1979–80 . ‘Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn't Matter’ . Political Science Quarterly , 94 ( 4 ) Winter : 617 – 33 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nitze , Paul H. 1976 . ‘Assuring Strategic Stability in an Era of Detente’ . Foreign Affairs , 54 ( 2 ) Jan. : 207 – 32 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• 1976–77 . ‘Deterring Our Deterrent’ . Foreign Policy , Winter : 195 – 210 .
   Google Scholar
• Kintner , William R. and Schwartz , David C. 1965 . A Study on Crisis Management , Philadelphia : Univ. of Pennsylvania, Foreign Policy Res. Ins. .
   Google Scholar
• Luttwak , Edward . 1972 . The Strategic Balance, 1972 , Washington Papers, No.3 NY : The Library of Congress .
   Google Scholar
• Quester , George . 1966 . Deterrence Before Hiroshima , NY : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Maoz , Zeev . 1983 . ‘Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of International Disputes, 1816–1976’ . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 27 ( 2 ) June : 195 – 229 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Petersen , Walter J. 1986 . ‘Deterrence and Compellence: A Critical Assessment of Conventional Wisdom’ . International Studies Quarterly , 30 : 269 – 94 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baldwin , David . 1979 . ‘Power Analysis and World Politics’ . World Politics , 31 ( 2 ) Jan.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kecskemeti , Paul . 1958 . Strategic Surrender , Stanford : Stanford up .
   Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert . 1984 . The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy , Ithaca, NY : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Tversky , Amos and Kahneman , Daniel . 1974 . ‘Judgment under Uncertainty’ . Science , 185 : 1124 – 30 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaplan , Morton A. 1958 . ‘The Calculus of Deterrence’ . World Politics , 11 ( 1 ) Oct. : 20 – 43 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dower , John W. 1986 . War without Mercy: Race and Power in the Pacific War , NY : Pantheon Books .
   Google Scholar
• Mearsheimer , John J. 1981 . “ ‘The Theory and Practice of Conventional Deterrence’ ” . Ithaca, NY : Cornell Univ. . Ph.D., Diss.
   Google Scholar
• Mearsheimer , John . 1983 . Conventional Deterrence , Ithaca, NY : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Pape , Robert A. Jr. 1990 . ‘Coercive Air Power in the Vietnam War’ . International Security , 15 ( 2 ) Fall : 103 – 46 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert . 1988 . ‘The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons’ . International Security , 13 ( 2 ) Fall : 80 – 90 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hayes , Carlton J. H. 1926 . Essays on Nationalism , NY : Macmillan .
   Google Scholar
• Shafer , Boyd . 1972 . Faces of Nationalism: New Realities and Old Myths , NY : Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich .
   Google Scholar
• Walt , Stephen M. 1987 . Origins of Alliances , Ithaca, NY : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Armstrong , Anne . 1962 . Unconditional Surrender , New Brunswick, NJ : Rutgers up .
   Google Scholar
• Gellner , Ernest . 1983 . Nations and Nationalism , Ithaca, NY : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Breuilly , John . 1982 . Nationalism and the State , Chicago : Univ. of Chicago Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gellner . Nations and Nationalism 1
   Google Scholar
• Kennan , George . 1951 . “ ‘American Diplomacy, 1900–1950 ” . Chicago : Univ. of Chicago Press .
   Google Scholar
• Van Evera , Stephen . 1984 . “ ‘Causes of War’ ” . Berkeley : Univ. of California . Ph.D. Diss.
   Google Scholar
• Dehio , Ludwig . 1967 . Germany and World Politics in the Twentieth Century , Edited by: Pevsner , Dieter . NY : Norton .
   Google Scholar
• Fischer , Fritz . 1975 . War of Illusions: German Policies from 1911 to 1914 , Edited by: Jackson , Marian . NY : Norton .
   Google Scholar
• Kennedy , Paul M. 1980 . The Rise of the Anglo‐German Antagonism, 1860–1914 , London : Allen and Unwin .
   Google Scholar
• Kohn , Hans . 1965 . The Mind of Germany: The Education of a Nation , NY : Harper Torchbook .
   Google Scholar
• Snyder , Louis L. 1952 . German Nationalism: The Tragedy of a People , Harrisburg, Pa. : Telegraph Press .
   Google Scholar
• Wright , Quincy . 1942 . A Study of War , Vol.2 , Chicago : Univ. of Chicago Press .
   Google Scholar
• Howard , Michael . 1976 . War in European History , 110 – 11 . New York : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Van Evera . “ ‘Causes of War’ ” . 407 – 21 . (note 48)
   Google Scholar
• Knightley , Phillip . 1975 . The First Casualty , NY : Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich .
   Google Scholar
• Wise , David . 1973 . The Politics of Lying: Government Deception, Secrecy and Power , NY : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Kennedy , David M. 1980 . Over Here: The First World War and American Society , New York : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Van Evera . “ ‘Causes of War’ ” . 683 – 5 . (note 48)
   Google Scholar
• Posen , Barry . 1984 . Sources of Military Doctrine , Ithaca, ny : Cornell up. .
   Google Scholar
• Rosen , Stephen Peter . 1991 . Winning The Next War , Ithaca, ny : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Wildavsky , Aaron . 1972 . ‘The Self‐Evaluating Organization’ . Public Administration Review , 32 ( 5 ) Sept.‐Oct. : 509 – 20 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Evera . “ ‘Causes of War’ ” . 453 – 99 . (note 48)
   Google Scholar
• Shils , Edward . 1956 . The Torment of Secrecy , 58 Glencoe, IL : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• 1977 . Decision Making , NY : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Blainey , Geoffrey . 1973 . The Causes of War , NY : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• May , Ernest . 1973 . ’Lessons’ of the Past: The Use and MisUse of History in American Foreign Policy , 125 – 43 . NY : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Bracher , Karl D. 1970 . The German Dictatorship , NY : Praeger .
   Google Scholar
• Rum‐mel , Rudolph J. 1963 . ‘Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within and Between Nations’ . General Systems. , 8 : 1 – 50 .
   Google Scholar
• Zines , Dina A. 1976 . Contemporary Research in International Relations , 160 – 75 . NY : The Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Levy , Jack . 1989 . “ ‘The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique’ ” . In Handbook of War Studies , Edited by: Midlarsky , Manus . 259 – 88 . Boston : Unwin Hyman .
   Google Scholar
• USSBS . 1946 . The Effects of Strategic Bombing on German Morale , Washington, DC : GPO .
   Google Scholar
• 1947 . The Effects of Strategic Bombing on Japanese Morale , Washington, DC : GPO .
   Google Scholar
• Tilly , Charles . 1975 . “ ‘Revolutions and Collective Violence’ ” . In Handbook of Political Science , Macropolitical Theory Edited by: Greenstein , Fred and Polsby , Nelson . Vol.3 , 483 – 556 . Reading, MA : Addison‐Wesley .
   Google Scholar
• Brodie , Bernard . 1973 . War and Politics , NY : Macmillan Press .
   Google Scholar
• Craig , Gordon . 1955 . The Politics of the Prussian Army, 1640–1945 , NY : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Singer , J. David and Small , Melvin . 1972 . The Wages of War 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook , 351 – 7 . NY : John Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Snyder , David and Tilly , Charles . 1972 . ‘Hardship and Collective Violence in France, 1830 to 1860’ . American Sociological Review , 37 Oct. : 520 – 32 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tilly , Charles , Tilly , Louise and Tilly , Richard . 1975 . The Rebellious Century: 1830–1930 , Cambridge, MA : Harvard up .
   Google Scholar
• Finkel , Steven and Rule , James . 1986 . “ ‘Relative deprivation and Related Psychological Theories of Civil Violence: A Critical Review’ ” . In Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change , Edited by: Kriesberg , Louis . Vol.9 , 47 – 69 . Greenwich, CT : JAI Press .
   Google Scholar
• USSBS . Effects of Strategic Bombing on Japanese Morale 65 249 (note 62)
   Google Scholar
• Higham , Robin . 1972 . Air Power: A Concise History , 114 – 19 . NY : St. Martin's Press .
   Google Scholar
• Lautenschlager , Karl . 1986–87 . ‘The Submarine in Naval Warfare, 1901–2001’ . International Security , 11 ( 3 ) Winter : 94 – 140 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Olson , Mancur Jr. 1963 . The Economics of the Wartime Shortage: A History of British Food Supplies in the Napoleonic War and in World Wars I and 11 , 142 Durham, NC : Duke up .
   Google Scholar
• writes , Schelling . ‘To be coercive, violence has to be anticipated. . . . It is the expectation of more violence that gets the wanted behavior, if the power to hurt can get it at all.’ . Arms and Influence , 2 – 3 . (note 1)
   Google Scholar
• Zimmermann , Tim . 1987 . ‘The American Bombing of Libya’ . Survival , 29 ( 3 ) May/June : 195 – 214 .
   Google Scholar
• Clodfelter , Mark . 1989 . The Limits of Air Power: The American Bombing of North Vietnam , 39 – 72 . New York : Basic Books .
   Google Scholar
• Cimbala , Stephen . 1986 . Strategic War Termination , NY : Praeger .
   Google Scholar
• Sagan , Scott . 1985 . ‘Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management’ . International Security , 9 ( 4 ) Spring : 99 – 139 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Glaser , Charles . 1990 . Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy , Princeton : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Keegan , John . 1990 . The Second World War , 173 – 208 . NY : Viking. .
   Google Scholar
• Hart , B. H. Liddell . 1970 . History of the Second World War , London : Cassell .
   Google Scholar
• Krepinevich , A. F. Jr. 1986 . The Army and Vietnam. , 3 – 10 . Baltimore : Johns Hopkins UP .
   Google Scholar
• Galula , David . 1964 . Counterinsurgency Warfare , NY : Praeger .
   Google Scholar
• Thompson , Sir Robert G. K. 1969 . No Exit from Vietnam , London : Chatto and Windus .
   Google Scholar
• Blaufarb , Douglas S. 1977 . The Counterinsurgency Era , NY : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Dunnigan , James . 1982 . How to Make War , 308 – 22 . NY : Morrow .
   Google Scholar
• Van Creveld , Martin . 1977 . Supplying War , NY : cup .
   Google Scholar
• Sallagar , F. M. 1969 . The Road to Total War: Escalation in World War II , R‐465‐PR 7 Santa Monica : RAND Corp. .
   Google Scholar
• Deighton , Len . 1977 . Fighter: The True Story of the Battle of Britain , London : Jonathan Cape .
   Google Scholar
• Wood , Derek and Dempster , Derek . 1961 . The Narrow Margin: The Battle of Britain and the Rise of Air Power, 1930–1940 , London : Hutchinson .
   Google Scholar
• Terraine , John . 1985 . A Time for Courage: The Royal Air Force in the European War, 1939–1945 , NY : Macmillan .
   Google Scholar
• Katz , Arthur . 1982 . Life After Nuclear War , Cambridge, MA : Ballinger .
   Google Scholar
• Brodie , Bernard . 1968 . Escalation and the Nuclear Option , Princeton : Princeton up .
   Google Scholar
• Desch , Michael . 1989 . ‘The Keys that Lock Up the World’ . International Security , 14 ( 1 ) Summer : 86 – 121 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gray , Colin . 1978 . ‘The Strategic Forces Triad’ . Foreign Affairs , 56 ( 4 ) July : 774
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Page , Robert A. Jr. Punishment and Denial: The Theory and Practice of Coercive Air Power , Ithaca, ny : Cornell up . forthcoming)
   Google Scholar
• Gamson , William and Modigliani , Andre . 1971 . Untangling the Cold War: A Strategy for Testing Rival Theories , Boston : Little, Brown .
   Google Scholar
• Craven , Wesley and Cate , James . 1953 . The Army Air Forces in World War II, Vol.5, The Pacific , 617 722 Washington : Office of Air Force History .
   Google Scholar
• LeMay , Curtis E. and Kantor , MacKinley . 1965 . Mission with LeMay , 393 Garden City, ny : Doubleday .
   Google Scholar
• Kirby , S. Woodburn . 1969 . War Against Japan, Vol.5: The Surrender of Japan , London : HMSO .
   Google Scholar
• Detweiler , Donald and Burdick , Charles , eds. 1980 . War in Asia and the Pacific, 1937–1949, Vol.12, Defense of the Homeland and End of the War , NY : Garland Publishing .
   Google Scholar
• Sigal , Leon . 1988 . Fighting to a Finish , 224 – 81 . Ithaca, ny : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Toland , John . 1970 . The Rising Sun , 807 NY : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Sigal . Fighting to a Finish 226
   Google Scholar
• Butow , Robert . 1954 . Japan's Decision to Surrender , 175 Stanford : Stanford up .
   Google Scholar
• Foot , Rosemary . 1990 . No Substitute for Victory , 166 Ithaca, ny : Cornell up .
   Google Scholar
• Keefer , Edward . 1986 . ‘President Dwight D. Eisenhower and the End of the Korean War’ . Diplomatic History , 10 Summer : 267 – 89 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ryan , Mark . 1989 . Chinese Attitudes toward Nuclear Weapons; China and the United States during the Korean War , Armonk, ny : M. E. Sharpe .
   Google Scholar
• Freedman , Lawrence and Karsh , Efraim . 1991 . ‘How Kuwait Was Won: Strategy in the Gulf War’ . International Security , 16 ( 2 ) Fall : 28 – 29 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mason , R. A. 1991 . ‘The Air War in the Gulf’ . Survival , 33 ( 3 ) May/June : 211 – 29 .
   Google Scholar
• 1991 . ‘Air Power in Desert Shield/Desert Storm’ . Air Power History , 38 ( 3 ) Fall
   Google Scholar
• Associated Press . 1991 . ‘8 Points of the Soviet‐Iraqi Peace Plan’ . International Harold Tribune , 23 Feb.
   Google Scholar
• Riddell , Peter . 1991 . ‘Bush Regains the Initiative’ . Financial Times , 23–24 Feb.
   Google Scholar
• Repin , Anatoly . 1991 . ‘The Chance Has Been Missed’ . Novosd Gulf Bulletin (Moscow) , 27 Feb.
   Google Scholar
• 1991 . New York Times , 23 Feb.
   Google Scholar
• Bracher . German Dictatorship 283 (note 60)
   Google Scholar
• Hart , B. H. Liddell . 1948 . The German Generals Talk , NY : William Morrow .
   Google Scholar
• Craig , Gordon A. 1955 . The Politics of the Prussian Army, 1940–1945 , NY : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Goerlitz , Walter . 1959 . The History of the German General Staff, 1657–1945 , NY : Praeger .
   Google Scholar
• Dawi‐dowicz , Lucy S. 1976 . The War Against the Jews, 1933–1945 , NY : Bantam Books .
   Google Scholar
• Bartov , Omer . 1986 . The Eastern Front, 1941–45 , NY : St. Martin's Press .
   Google Scholar
• 1991 . Hitler's Army: Soldiers, Nazis, and War in the Third Reich , NY : OUP .
   Google Scholar
• Hil‐berg , Raul . 1985 . The Destruction of the European Jews , NY : Holmes & Meier .
   Google Scholar
• Mulligan , Timothy . 1982 . ‘Reckoning the Cost of the People's War: The German Experience in Central USSR’ . Russian History , 9 ( 1 ) Spring : 27 – 48 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bartow . The Eastern Front 153 – 4 . (note 141)
   Google Scholar
• Wheeler‐Bennett , J. W. 1964 . The Nemesis of Power: The German Army in Politics, 1918–1945 , 619 NY : St. Martin's Press .
   Google Scholar
• Doenitz , Karl . 1959 . Memoirs: Ten Years and Twenty Days , Edited by: Stevens , R. H. 431 London : Weidenfeld .
   Google Scholar
• Zayas , Alfred M. de . 1977 . Nemesis at Potsdam: The Anglo‐Americans and the Expulsion of the Germans , 74 Boston : RKP .
   Google Scholar