51
Views
15
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects

&
Pages 277-301 | Published online: 24 May 2006

References

  • Amos, D. E. and Daniel, S. L. (1971). Tables of percentage points of standardized Pearson distributions, Research Report No. SC-RR-710348, NTIS, Virginia, USA.
  • Ang , A. H. S. , Abdelnour , J. and Chaker , A.A. 1975 . Analysis of activity networks under uncertainty . Journal of Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE , 101 : 373 – 387 .
  • Ang , A. H. S. and Tang , W. H. 1975 . Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design , New York : Wiley .
  • Benjamin , J. R. and Cornell , C. A. 1970 . Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers , New York : McGraw-Hill .
  • Bjornsson , H. C. 1977 . “ Risk analysis of construction cost estimates ” . In Transactions, American Association of Cost Engineers 182 – 189 .
  • Budescu , D. V. and Wallsten , T. S. 1987 . “ Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties ” . In Judgemental Forecasting , Edited by: Wright , G. and Ayton , P. New York : Wiley .
  • Cooper , D. F. and Chapman , C. B. 1987 . Risk Analysis for Large Projects, Models, Methods and Cases , New York : Wiley .
  • Crandall , K. C. 1977 . Analysis of schedule simulations . Journal of the Construction Division, ASCE , 103 : 3287 – 3294 .
  • Davidson , L. B. and Cooper , D. O. 1976 . A simple way of developing a probability distribution of present value . Journal of Petroleum Technology , 103 : 1069 – 1078 .
  • Diekmann , J. E. 1983 . Probabilistic estimating: mathematics and applications . Journal of Construction Engineering & Management , 109 : 297 – 307 .
  • Harr , M. E. 1987 . Reliability Based Design in Civil Engineering , New York : McGraw-Hill .
  • Hayes , R. W. , Perry , J. G. , Thompson , P. A. and Willmer , G. 1986 . “ Risk management in engineering construction, implications for project managers ” . In Project Management Group, UMIST , 5 – 36 . London : Thomas Telford Ltd .
  • Hendrickson , C. , Martinelli , D. and Rehak , D. 1987 . Hierarchical rule-based activity duration estimation . Journal of Construction Engineering & Management , 113 : 288 – 301 .
  • Hillier , F. S. 1963 . The derivation of probabilistic information for the evaluation of risky investments . Management Science , 9 : 443 – 457 .
  • Howard , R. A. 1971 . Management Science , 17 : 507 – 541 .
  • Huber , G. P. 1974 . Methods for quantifying subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities . Decision Science , 5 : 430 – 458 .
  • Hull , J. C. 1978 . The accuracy of the means and standard deviations of subjective probability distributions . Journal of Royal Statistical Society, A , 141 : 79 – 85 .
  • Hull , J. C. 1980 . The Evaluation of Risk in Business Investment , Oxford : Pergamon Press .
  • Inyang , E. D. and Wilmer , G. 1986 . “ Practical considerations in the solution of probabilistic risk analysis models for engineering project management decision making ” . In 1st International Conference on Engineering Management: Theory and Applications 45 – 59 . Swansea
  • Jaafari , A. 1984 . Criticism of CPM for project planning analysis . Journal of Construction Engineering & Management , 110 : 222 – 233 .
  • Jaafari , A. 1988 . Project viability and economic risk analysis . Journal of Management in Engineering , 4 : 29 – 45 .
  • Jackson , P. S. 1982 . A second-order moments method for uncertainty analysis . IEEE Transactions on Reliability , R-31 : 382 – 384 .
  • Johnson , N. L. , Nixon , E. and Amos , D. E. 1963 . Table of percentage points of Pearson curves, for given √β1 and β2, expressed in standard measure . Biometrika , 50 : 459 – 498 .
  • Keefer , D. L. and Bodily , S. E. 1983 . Three-point approximations for continuous random variables . Management Science , 29 : 595 – 609 .
  • Kendall , M. G. and Stuart , A. 1969 . The Advanced Theory of Statistics , 3rd , New York : Hafner Publishing Co. .
  • Kottas , J. F. and Lau , H. S. 1980 . A review of the statistical foundation of a class of probabilistic planning models . Computer & Operation Research , 7 : 277 – 284 .
  • Kottas , J. F. and Lau , H. S. 1982 . A four-moments alternative to simulation for a class of stochastic management models . Management Science , 28 : 749 – 758 .
  • Lindley , D. V. , Tversky , A. and Brown , R. V. 1979 . On the reconciliation of probability assessments . Journal of Royal Statistical Society A , 142 : 146 – 180 .
  • Malcolm , D. G. , Roseboom , J. H. , Clark , C. E. and Fazar , W. 1959 . Applications of a technique for research and development program evaluation (PERT) . Operations Research , 7 : 646 – 669 .
  • Moder , J. J. and Rodgers , E. G. 1968 . Judgement estimates of the moments of PERT type distributions . Management Science , 15 : B77 – B83 .
  • Moeller , P. E. 1972 . “ VERT-a tool to assess risk ” . In AIIE, Technical Papers 211 – 222 .
  • Ord , J. K. 1972 . Families of Frequency Distributions , London : Charles Griffin & Co. .
  • Ord , J. K. 1985 . Pearson system of distributions . Encycopedia of Statistical Sciences , 6 : 655 – 659 .
  • Pearson , E. S. and Tukey , J.W. 1965 . Approximate means and standard deviations based on distances between percentage points of frequency curves . Biometrika , 52 : 533 – 546 .
  • Perry , C. and Greig , I.D. 1975 . Estimating the mean and variance of subjective distributions in PERT and decision analysis . Management Science , 21 : 1477 – 1480 .
  • Perry , J. G. and Hayes , R.W. 1985 . Risk and its management in construction projects . Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers, UK, Part 1 , 78 : 499 – 521 .
  • Phillips , L. D. 1987 . “ On the adequacy of judgmental forecasts ” . In Judgmental Forecasting , Edited by: Wright , G. and Ayton , P. New York : Wiley .
  • Pouliquen , L. Y. 1970 . Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal , Baltimore : The Johns Hopkins Press .
  • Ranasinghe , M. and Russell , A.D. 1990 . Elicitation of subjective probabilities for risk analysis in engineering construction . Managing Projects , 4 : 376 – 387 . CIB-90
  • Ranasinghe , M. and Russell , A.D. 1992a . Treatment of correlation for risk analysis of engineering projects . Submitted to Journal of Civil Engineering Systems , 4 UK
  • Ranasinghe , M. and Russell , A.D. 1992b . “ Elicitation of expert knowledge for economic risk analysis ” . In Submitted to Construction Management and Economics UK
  • Siddall , J. N. 1972 . Analytical Decision-Making in Engineering Design , Prentice-Hall . Englewood Cliffs
  • Spetzler , C. S. and Stael von Holstein , C.-A. 1975 . Probability encoding in decision analysis . Management Science , 22 : 340 – 358 .
  • Thompson , P. A. and Whitman , J.D. 1974 . “ A network based financial modelling system linking project appraisal, construction and operation ” . In 4th International INTERNET Congress 329 – 336 . Paris
  • Thompson , P. A. and Wilmer , G. 1985 . CASPAR-A program for engineering project appraisal and management . 2nd International Conference on Civil & Structural Engineering Computing , 1 : 75 – 81 .
  • Van Tetterode , L. M. 1971 . “ Risk analysis ... or Russian roulette? ” . In Transactions American Association of Cost Engineers 185 – 191 .
  • Wallsten , T. S. and Budescu , D.V. 1983 . Encoding subjective probabilities: a psychological and psychometric review . Management Science , 29 : 151 – 173 .
  • Wright , G. and Ayton , P. 1987 . “ The psychology of forecasting ” . In Judgmental Forecasting , Edited by: Wright , G. and Ayton , P. New York : Wiley .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.