Effects of Offsets and Outliers on the Sea Level Trend at Antalya 2 Tide Gauge within the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

References

• Ayhan, M. E. 2020. Dynamic harmonic regression modeling for monthly mean sea levels at tide gauges within the Arabian Gulf. Journal of Geodesy 94 (4):46.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bai, J., and P. Perron. 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural Change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18 (1):1–22.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barbosa, S. M., M. E. Silva, and M. J. Fernandes. 2008. Time series analysis of sea-level records: Characterising long-term variability. In Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences-applications in climatology, geodynamics, and solar-terrestrial physics, eds. by R. V. Donner, S. M. Barbosa, 157–73. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Beaulieu, C., and R. Killick. 2018. Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data. Journal of Climate 31 (23):9519–43.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beaulieu, C., R. Killick, D. Ireland, and B. Norwood. 2020. Considering long-memory when testing for changepoints in surface temperature: A classification approach based on the time-varying spectrum. Environmetrics 31 (1):e2568.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Becker, M., M. Karpytchev, M. Davy, and K. Doekes. 2009. Impact of a shift in mean on the sea level rise: Application to the tide gauges in the Southern Netherlands. Continental Shelf Research 29 (4):741–9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beran, J. 1994. Statistics for long-memory processes. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC.
   Google Scholar
• Bos, M. S., S. D. P. Williams, I. B. Araújo, and L. Bastos. 2014. The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty. Geophysical Journal International 196 (3):1423–30.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Box, G. E. P., G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel, and G. M. Ljung. 2016. Time Series Analysis - Forecasting and Control. 5th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Cazenave, A., Y. Gouzenes, F. Birol, F. Leger, M. Passaro, F. M. Calafat, A. Shaw, F. Nino, J. F. Legeais, J. Oeismann, et al. 2022. New network of virtual altimetry stations for measuring sea level along the world coastlines. SEANOE.
   Google Scholar
• Chang, I., G. C. Tiao, and C. Chen. 1988. Estimation of time series parameters in the presence of outliers. Technometrics 30 (2):193–204.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, C., and L.-M. Liu. 1993. Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88 (421):284–97.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chung, S.-K. 2000. Asymptotics of trend stationary fractionally integrated ARMA models. Applied Economics 32 (12):1509–14.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cleveland, R., W. Cleveland, J. McRae, and I. Terpenning. 1990. STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (with discussion). Journal of Official Statistics 6 (1):3–73.
   Google Scholar
• Durbin, J., and S. J. Koopman. 2012. Time series analysis by state space methods. 2nd ed. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Emre, Ö., T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, F. Şaroğlu, Ş. Olgun, H. Elmacı, and T. Çan. 2018. Active fault database of Turkey. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 16 (8):3229–75.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fatichi, S., S. M. Barbosa, E. Caporali, and M. E. Silva. 2009. Deterministic versus stochastic trends: Detection and challenges. Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (D18):D18121.
   Google Scholar
• Feng, X., M. N. Tsimplis, M. Marcos, F. M. Calafat, J. Zheng, G. Jorda, and P. Cipollini. 2015. Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (10):7091–112.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flemming, N. C. 1978. Holocene Eustatic Changes and Coastal Tectonics in the Northeast Mediterranean: Implications for Models of Crustal Consumption. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences 289 (1362):405–58.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Flemming, N. C., and C. O. Webb. 1986. Tectonic and eustatic coastal changes during the last 10,000 years derived from archaeological data. Z. Geomorphol. N.F 62:1–29.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, J. H. 1984. A variable span smoother. Technical Report LCSS, Department of Statistics, Stanford University.
   Google Scholar
• Gedikli, A., H. Aksoy, and N. E. Unal. 2008. Segmentation algorithm for long time series analysis. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 22 (3):291–302.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gedikli, A., H. Aksoy, and N. E. Unal. 2010. AUG-Segmenter: A user-friendly tool for segmentation of long time series. Journal of Hydroinformatics 12 (3):318–28.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• GDM. 2019. Personel communication with geodetic staff of the general directorate of mapping (GDM), Ankara, Turkey.
   Google Scholar
• Hogarth, P., C. W. Hughes, S. D. P. Williams, and C. Wilson. 2020. Improved and extended tide gauge records for the British Isles leading to more consistent estimates of sea level rise and acceleration since 1958. Progress in Oceanography 184:102333.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holgate, S. J., A. Matthews, P. L. Woodworth, L. J. Rickards, M. E. Tamisiea, E. Bradshaw, P. R. Foden, K. M. Gordon, S. Jevrejeva, and J. Pugh. 2013. New data systems and products at the permanent service for mean sea level. Journal of Coastal Research 29 (3):493–504.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Howell, A., J. Jackson, A. Copley, D. McKenzie, and E. Nissen. 2017. Subduction and vertical coastal motions in the eastern Mediterranean. Geophysical Journal International 211 (1):593–620.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hyndman, R. J. 2021. Detecting time series outliers. https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/tsoutliers/.
   Google Scholar
• Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G., Bergmeir, C., Caceres, G., Chhay, L., O'Hara-Wild, M., Petropoulos, F., Razbash, S. 2021. Package “forecast”: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models. R package version 8.15. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Hyndman, R. J., and G. Athanasopoulos. 2018. Forecasting: Principles and practice. 2nd ed. Melbourne, Australia: OTexts. https://OTexts.org/fpp2/.
   Google Scholar
• Hyndman, R. J., and Y. Fan. 1996. Sample quantiles in statistical packages. The American Statistician 50 (4):361–5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Killick, R., P. Fearnhead, and I. A. Eckley. 2012. Optimal detection of change points with a linear computational cost. Journal of the American Statistical Association 107 (500):1590–8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Killick, R., Beaulieu, C. S. Taylor, H. Hullait. and H. 2020. Package “EnvCpt”: Detection of structural changes in climate and environment time series. R package version 1.1.2. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EnvCpt/EnvCpt.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Luedicke, J. 2015. Friedman’s super smoother. http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/bocode/s/supsmooth_doc.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Marcos, M., and M. N. Tsimplis. 2007. Variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in southern Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (C12):C12011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marcos, M., and M. N. Tsimplis. 2008. Coastal sea level trends in Southern Europe. Geophysical Journal International 175 (1):70–82.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mendes, V. B., S. M. Barbosa, I. Romero, J. Madeira, and A. Brum da Silveira. 2017. Vertical land motion and sea level change in Macaronesia. Geophysical Journal International 210 (2):1264–80.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mohamed, B., A. M. Abdallah, K. Alam El-Din, H. Nagy, and M. Shaltout. 2019. Inter-annual variability and trends of sea level and sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 25 years. Pure and Applied Geophysics 176 (8):3787–810.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moritz, S., and T. Bartz-Beielstein. 2017. Package imputeTS: Time series missing value imputation in R. R Journal 9:1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moritz, S., and S. Gatscha. 2021. Package imputeTS: Time series missing value imputation. R package version 3.2. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/imputeTS/imputeTS.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• NASA JPL. 2013. NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 3 arc second [Data set]. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5067/MEaSUREs/SRTM/SRTMGL3.003.
   Google Scholar
• Ozturk, U., N. Marwan, S. Specht, O. Korup, and J. Jensen. 2018. A new centennial sea-level record for antalya, Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123 (7):4503–17.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peltier, W. R. 2004. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 32 (1):111–49.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pettitt, A. N. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Applied Statistics 28 (2):26–135.
   Google Scholar
• Perron, P. 1989. The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica 57 (6):1361–401.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perron, P. 1994. Trend, unit root and structural change in macroeconomic time series. In Cointegration, ed. by B. B. Rao, 113–46. London, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Pfaff, B. 2008. Analysis of integrated and cointegrated series with R. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Pfaff, B., E. Zivot, and M. Stigler. 2016. Package urca: Unit Root and Cointegration Tests for Time Series Data. R package version 1.3.0. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/urca/urca.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Ruf, T. 1999. The Lomb-Scargle periodogram in biological rhythm research: analysis of incomplete and unequally spaced time-series. Biological Rhythm Research 30 (2):178–201.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ruf, T. 2019. Package lomb: Lomb-Scargle Periodogram. R package version 1.2. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/lomb/lomb.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Simav, M., H. Yildiz, A. Türkezer, O. Lenk, and E. Ozsoy. 2012. Sea level variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges in Turkey: Atmospheric, steric and land motion contributions. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica 56 (1):215–30.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tan, O., C. Tapirdamaz, and A. Yoruk. 2008. The earthquake catalogues for Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences 17 (2):405–18.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• The Climate Change Initiative Coastal Sea Level Team. 2020. Coastal sea level anomalies and associated trends from Jason satellite altimetry over 2002–2018. Scientific Data 7:357.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tsimplis, M. N., and P. L. Woodworth. 1994. The global distribution of the seasonal sea level cycle calculated from coastal tide gauge data. Journal of Geophysical Research 99 (C8):16031–9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van Onselen, K. I. 2000. The influence of data quality on the detectability of sea-level height variations. PhD diss., NCG Publications on Geodesy, 49, TU Delft.
   Google Scholar
• Veenstra, J. Q. 2013. Persistence and anti-persistence: Theory and software. PhD diss., The University of Western Ontario. Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository 1119. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/etd/1119.
   Google Scholar
• Veenstra, J. Q., and A. I. McLeod. 2018. Package arfima: Fractional ARIMA (and other long memory) time series modeling. R package version 1.7-0. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/arfima/arfima.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• White, N. J., I. D. Haigh, J. A. Church, T. Koen, C. S. Watson, T. R. Pritchard, P. J. Watson, R. J. Burgette, K. L. McInnes, Z.-J. You, et al. 2014. Australian sea levels—Trends, regional variability and influencing factors. Earth-Science Reviews 136:155–74.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wikipedia. 2021. Quantile. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile.
   Google Scholar
• Yildiz, H, et al. 2003. Analysis of sea level and geodetic Measurements of Antalya-II, Bodrum II, Erdek and Menteş tide gauges in the period of 1984-2002. Harita Dergisi 17:1–75. https://www.harita.gov.tr/images/dergi/f416faa4457586b.pdf.
   Google Scholar
• Yildiz, H., O. B. Andersen, M. Simav, B. Aktug, and S. Ozdemir. 2013. Estimates of vertical land motion along the southwestern coasts of Turkey from coastal altimetry and tide gauge data. Advances in Space Research 51 (8):1572–80.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Young, P. 1988. Recursive extrapolation, interpolation and smoothing of nonstationary time-series. IFAC Proceedings Volumes 21 (9):35–46.
   Google Scholar
• Zivot, E., and D. W. K. Andrews. 1992. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 10 (3):251–70.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar