246
Views
4
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

Pandemic model with data-driven phase detection, a study using COVID-19 data

ORCID Icon, , &
Pages 450-464 | Received 10 Nov 2020, Accepted 13 Sep 2021, Published online: 17 Dec 2021

References

  • Abbey, H. (1952). An examination of the reed-frost theory of epidemics. Human Biology, 24(3), 201–233.
  • Actions-User, Ustayev, A., Lavoie, S., Winstral, T., Mchedlishvili, I., Morisset, C., & Pollock, R. (2020). Covid-19 dataset. Retrieved August 24, 2020, from https://github.com/datasets/covid-19
  • Aron, J., & Schwartz, I. (1984). Seasonality and period-doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 110(4), 665–679. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(84)80150-2
  • Carcione, J. M., Santos, J. E., Bagaini, C., & Ba, J. (2020). A simulation of a covid-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 230.
  • Cheung, H. (2020). Why attitudes to masks have changed around the world. Retrieved July 14, 2020, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53394525
  • Day, M. (2020). Covid-19: Four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, china figures indicate. British Medical Journal Publishing Group.
  • Glass, D. H. (2020). European and us lockdowns and second waves during the covid-19 pandemic. Mathematical Biosciences, 330, 108472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108472
  • GOV.UK. (2020). The r number and growth rate in the UK. Retrieved May 15, 2020, from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#history
  • Graunt, J. (1939). Natural and political observations made upon the bills of mortality (No. 2). The Johns Hopkins Press.
  • Greenhalgh, D., Doyle, M., & Lewis, F. (2001). A mathematical model of aids and condom use. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 18(3), 225–262. https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/18.3.225
  • Guardian, T. (2020). First thing: Surge in new COVID-19 infections in republican heartlands. Retrieved May 13, 2020, from https://bit.ly/3izqS9K
  • Hamzah, B., Amira, F., Cher, H., Nazri, H., Ligot, D., Lee, G., Shaib, M., Zaidon, U., Abdullah, A., Chung, M. H., Ong, C., & Chew, P. (2020). Coronatracker: Worldwide covid-19 outbreak data analysis and prediction. Bulletin of the World Health Organization.
  • Hasell, J. (2020). What can data on testing tell us about the pandemic? Retrieved April 13, 2020, from https://bit.ly/37Ad9Ja
  • He, S., Tang, S., & Rong, L. (2020). A discrete stochastic model of the covid-19 outbreak: Forecast and control. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering: MBE, 17(4), 2792–2804.
  • Herbrich, R., Rastogi, R., & Vollgraf, R. (2020). Crisp: A probabilistic model for individual-level covid-19 infection risk estimation based on contact data. CoRR arXiv Preprint arXiv, 2006, 04942.
  • Hu, Z., Song, C., Xu, C., Jin, G., Chen, Y., Xu, X., Ma, H., Chen, W., Lin, Y., Zheng, Y., Wang, J., Hu, Z., Yi, Y., & Shen, H. (2020). Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with Covid-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China. Science China Life Sciences, 63(5), 706–711. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4
  • Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1932). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. ii. The problem of endemicity. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 138(834), 55–83.
  • Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1933). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. iii. Further studies of the problem of endemicity. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 141(843), 94–122.
  • Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1991). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics-I. 1927. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 53(1–2), 33–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02464423
  • Lorch, L., Trouleau, W., Tsirtsis, S., Szanto, A., Schölkopf, B., & Gomez-Rodriguez, M. (2020). A spatiotemporal epidemic model to quantify the effects of contact tracing, testing, and containment. ArXiv Preprint arXiv, 2004, 07641.
  • Montgomery, D. C. (2020). Introduction to statistical quality control. Wiley.
  • Ndaïrou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., & Torres, D. F. M. (2020). Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of wuhan. Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 135, 109846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846
  • Nikolaev, A., & Vázquez-Abad, F. J. (2015). Stochastic approximation for regulating circadian cycles, a precision medicine viewpoint [Paper presentation]. 2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) (pp. 1471–1482), Huntington Beach, CA. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2015.7408269
  • Page, E. S. (1954). Continuous inspection schemes. Biometrika, 41(1–2), 100–115. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/41.1-2.100
  • Post, T. W. (2020a). A high-risk orida teen who died from covid-19 attended a huge church party, then was given hydroxychloroquine by her parents. Retrieved July 7, 2020, from https://wapo.st/3Aq1LMA
  • Post, T. W. (2020b). Memorial day weekend draws big crowds, as U.S. coronavirus deaths near 100,000. Retrieved May 23, 2020, from https://wapo.st/3s6naY0
  • Ridenhour, B., Kowalik, J. M., & Shay, D. K. (2014). Unraveling r0: Considerations for public health applications. American Journal of Public Health, 104(2), e32–e41. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2013.301704
  • Roser, M., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E., & Hasell, J. (2020). Coronavirus pandemic (covid-19). Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
  • Rossi, C. (2020). The coronavirus is a problem data models cannot comprehend. https://bit.ly/2U4bZ5I
  • Salvatore, P. P. (2020). Recent increase in covid-19 cases reported among adults aged 18–22 years United States, May 31–September 5, 2020. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 69, 1419–1424.
  • Sarkar, K., Khajanchi, S., & Nieto, J. J. (2020). Modeling and forecasting the Covid-19 pandemic in India. Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals, 139, 110049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110049
  • Vazquez-Abad, M. D. (2020). Hope: Developing a covid-19 vaccine. Retrieved August 22, 2020, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTkBVIX0-vQ&t=10s
  • Vineetha Warriyar, K., V., Almutiry, W., & Deardon, R. (2020). Individual-level modelling of infectious disease data: Epiilm. arXiv, arXiv–2003 R J., 12, 87.
  • Washburn, A., Paing, Y., Lin, P., & Vázquez-Abad, F. (2021). Simulating sars-cov-2 transmission in the New York subway. In S. Kim, B. Feng, K. Smith, S. Masoud, Z. Zheng, C. Szabo, and M. Loper (Eds.). 2021 Winter Simulation Conference. IEEE.
  • Wikipedia. (2020). Timeline of the Covid-19 pandemic in England. Retrieved July 15, 2020, from https://bit.ly/3lNsP4d
  • Yella Hewings-Martin, P. (2020). How do sars and mers compare with covid-19? Retrieved April 10, 2020, from https://bit.ly/3lVxgtI

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.