45
Views
18
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Applications and Case Studies

The Relationship between the Length of the Base Period and Population Forecast Errors

&
Pages 367-375 | Received 01 Nov 1988, Published online: 28 Feb 2012

References

  • Ascher , W. 1978 . Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners , Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press .
  • Beaumont , P. M. and Isserman , A. M. 1987 . Comment on “Tests of Forecast Accuracy and Bias for County Population Projections,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 82 : 1004 – 1009 . by S. K. Smith
  • Greenberg , M. 1972 . A Test of Combinations of Models for Projecting the Population of Minor Civil Divisions . Economic Geography , 48 : 179 – 188 .
  • Isserman , A. 1977 . The Accuracy of Population Projections for Subcounty Areas . Journal of the American Institute of Planners , 43 : 247 – 259 .
  • Kale , B. , Voss , P. , Palit , C. and Krebs , H. 1981 . On the Question of Errors in Population Projections Unpublished paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC
  • Makridakis , S. 1986 . The Art and Science of Forecasting: An Assessment and Future Directions . International Journal of Forecasting , 2 : 15 – 39 .
  • Murdock , S. H. , Leistritz , F. L. , Hamm , R. R. , Hwang , S.-S. and Parpia , B. 1984 . An Assessment of the Accuracy of a Regional Economic–Demographic Projection Model . Demography , 21 : 383 – 404 .
  • Pritchett , H. S. 1891 . A Formula for Predicting the Population of the United States . Quarterly Publication of the American Statistical Association , 2 : 278 – 286 .
  • Schmitt , R. and Crosetti , A. 1951 . Accuracy of the Ratio Method for Forecasting City Population . Land Economics , 27 : 346 – 348 .
  • Schmitt , R. and Crosetti , A. 1953 . Short-Cut Methods of Forecasting City Population . Journal of Marketing , 17 : 417 – 424 .
  • Smith , S. K. 1984 . Population Projections: What Do We Really Know? , University of Florida, Bureau of Economic & Business Research . Monograph 1
  • Smith , S. K. 1987 . Tests of Forecast Accuracy and Bias for County Population Projections . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 82 : 991 – 1012 . with discussion
  • Smith , S. K. and Sincich , T. 1988 . Stability Over Time in the Distribution of Population Forecast Errors . Demography , 25 : 461 – 474 .
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1956 . Estimates of the Population of States: 1900–1949 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 139
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1965 . Revised Estimates of the Population of States and Components of Population Change 1950 to 1960 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 304
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1971 . Preliminary Intercensal Estimates of States and Components of Population Change, 1960–1970 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 460
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1976 . Estimates of the Population of States With Components of Change: 1970 to 1975 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 640
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1982 . Provisional Estimates of the Population of States: July 1, 1981 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 911
  • U.S. Bureau of the Census . 1984 . Estimates of the Population of States: 1970 to 1983 . Current Population Report , Ser. P-25, No. 957
  • Voss , P. R. and Kale , B. D. 1985 . Refinements of Small-Area Population Projection Models: Results of a Test Based on 128 Wisconsin Communities Unpublished paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston
  • Whelpton , P. K. 1928 . Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975 . American Journal of Sociology , 34 : 253 – 270 .
  • White , H. R. 1954 . Empirical Study of the Accuracy of Selected Methods of Projecting State Population . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 49 : 480 – 498 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.