Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data

REFERENCES

• Alho , J. M. 1992 . “The Magnitude of Error Due to Different Vital Processes in Population Forecasts,” . International Journal of Forecasting , 8 : 301 – 314 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alkema , L. , Raftery , A. E. , Gerland , P. , Clark , S. J. and Pelletier , F. 2012 . “Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate With Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples From West Africa,” . Demographic Research , 26 : 331 – 362 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bertino , S. and Sonnino , E. 2003 . “The Stochastic Inverse Projection and the Population of Velletri (1590–1870),” . Mathematical Population Studies , 10 : 41 – 73 .
   Google Scholar
• Booth , H. 2006 . “Demographic Forecasting: 1980 to 2005 In Review,” . International Journal of Forecasting , 22 : 547 – 581 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boyle , P. P. and Ó Gráda , C. 1986 . “Fertility Trends, Excess Mortality, and the Great Irish Famine,” . Demography , 23 : 543 – 562 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brass , W. 1971 . “On the Scale of Mortality,” . In Biological Aspects of Demography , Edited by: Brass , W. London : Taylor & Francis .
   Google Scholar
• Brooks , S. P. , Catchpole , E. A. and Morgan , B. J. T. 2000a . “Bayesian Animal Survival Estimation,” . Statistical Science , 15 : 357 – 376 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brooks , S. P. , Catchpole , E. A. , Morgan , B. J. T. and Barry , S. C. 2000b . “On the Bayesian Analysis of Ring-Recovery Data,” . Biometrics , 56 : 951 – 956 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brooks , S. P. , Catchpole , E. A. , Morgan , B. J. T. and Harris , M. P. 2002 . “Bayesian Methods for Analysing Ringing Data,” . Journal of Applied Statistics , 29 : 187 – 206 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carlin , B. P. and Louis , T. A. 2009 . Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis , 3rd ed. , Boca Raton , FL : Chapman & Hall/CRC Press .
   Google Scholar
• Carlin , B. P. and Polson , N. G. 1991 . “Inference for Nonconjugate Bayesian Models Using the Gibbs Sampler,” . Canadian Journal of Statistics , 19 : 399 – 405 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Catchpole , E. A. , Kgosi , P. M. and Morgan , B. J. T. 2001 . “On the Near-Singularity of Models for Animal Recovery Data,” . Biometrics , 57 : 720 – 726 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cleveland , W. S. 1979 . “Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 74 : 829 – 836 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cleveland , W. S. , Grosse , E. and Shyu , W. M. 1992 . “Local Regression Models ” . In Statistical Models in S , Edited by: Chambers , J. and Hastie , T. Pacific Grove, , CA : Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, chap. 8 .
   Google Scholar
• Cohen , J. E. 2006 . “Stochastic Demography,” . In Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences DOI: 10.1002/0471667196.ess2584.pub2
   Google Scholar
• Condé , J. 1980 . “Migration in Upper Volta,” . In Demographic Aspects of Migration in West Africa , Edited by: Zachariah , K. C. and Condé , J. Washington , DC : World Bank . vol. 2
   Google Scholar
• Daponte , B. O. , Kadane , J. B. and Wolfson , L. J. 1997 . “Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population, 1977–1990,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 92 : 1256 – 1267 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Geman , S. and Geman , D. 1984 . “Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images,” . In Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 721 – 741 . PAMI-6, IEEE
   Google Scholar
• Givens , G. H. , Raftery , A. E. and Zeh , J. E. 1993 . “Benefits of a Bayesian Approach for Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Evidence and Uncertainty Linked by a Deterministic Model,” . Report of the International Whaling Commission , 43 : 495 – 500 .
   Google Scholar
• Goodkind , D. and West , L. 2001 . “The North Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact,” . Population and Development Review , 27 : 219 – 238 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hastings , W. K. 1970 . “Monte Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications,” . Biometrika , 57 : 97 – 109 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heuveline , P. 1998 . “Between One and Three Million: Towards the Demographic Reconstruction of a Decade of Cambodian History (1970–79),” . Population Studies , 52 : 49 – 65 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keilman , N. 1998 . “How Accurate are the United Nations World Population Projections?,” . Population and Development Review , 24 : 15 – 41 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee , R. D. 1971 . Econometric Studies of Topics in Demographic History Dissertation in Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
   Google Scholar
• Lee , R. D. 1974 . “Estimating Series of Vital Rates and Age Structures From Baptisms and Burials: A New Technique, With Applications to Pre-Industrial England,” . Population Studies , 28 : 495 – 512 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee , R. D. 1985 . “Inverse Projection and Back Projection: A Critical Appraisal, and Comparative Results for England, 1539 to 1871,” . Population Studies , 39 : 233 – 248 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee , R. D. 1993 . “Inverse Projection and Demographic Fluctuations” . In Old and New Methods in Historical Demography , Edited by: Reher , D. S. and Schofield , R. Oxford : Clarendon Press, pp. 7–28 .
   Google Scholar
• Lee , R. D. 1998 . “Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting,” . Population and Development Review , 24 : 156 – 190 .
   Google Scholar
• Leslie , P. H. 1945 . “On the Use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics,” . Biometrika , 33 : 183 – 212 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leslie , P. H. 1948 . “Some Further Notes on the Use of Matrices in Population Mathematics,” . Biometrika , 35 : 213 – 245 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lewis , E. G. 1942 . “On the Generation and Growth of a Population,” . Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics (1933–1960) , 6 : 93 – 96 .
   Google Scholar
• McAllister , M. K. , Pikitch , E. K. , Punt , A. E. and Hilborn , R. 1994 . “A Bayesian Approach to Stock Assessment and Harvest Decisions Using the Sampling/Importance Resampling Algorithm,” . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 51 : 2673 – 2687 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McCaa , R. and Barbi , E. 2004 . “Inverse Projection: Fine-Tuning and Expanding the Method ” . In Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches , Edited by: Barbi , E. , Bertino , S. and Sonnino , E. 11 – 28 . Berlin : Springer-Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Merli , M. G. 1998 . “Mortality in Vietnam, 1979–1989,” . Demography , 35 : 345 – 360 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Metropolis , N. , Rosenbluth , A. W. , Rosenbluth , M. N. , Teller , A. H. and Teller , E. 1953 . “Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines,” . Journal of Chemical Physics , 21 : 1087 – 1092 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oeppen , J. 1993 . “Back Projection and Inverse Projection: Members of a Wider Class of Constrained Projection Models,” . Population Studies , 47 : 245 – 267 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• O’Hagan , A. , Buck , C. E. , Deaneshkhah , A. , Eiser , J. R. , Garthwaite , P. H. , Jenkinson , D. J. , Oakley , J. E. and Rakow , T. 2006 . Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities , London : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Plummer , M. , Best , N. , Cowles , K. and Vines , K. 2006 . “CODA: Convergence Diagnosis and Output Analysis for MCMC,” . R News , 6 : 7 – 11 .
   Google Scholar
• Plummer , M. , Best , N. , Cowles , K. and Vines , K. 2010 . CODA: Output Analysis and Diagnostics for MCMC Comprehensive R Archive Network, CRAN). Available at www.r-project.org
   Google Scholar
• Pollard , J. H. 1968 . “A Note on Multi-Type Galton-Watson Processes With Random Branching Probabilities,” . Biometrika , 55 : 589 – 590 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Poole , D. and Raftery , A. E. 2000 . “Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 95 : 1244 – 1255 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Preston , S. H. , Heuveline , P. and Guillot , M. 2001 . Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes , Malden, MA : Blackwell .
   Google Scholar
• Quinn , T. J. and Deriso , R. B. 1999 . Quantitative Fish Dynamics , New York : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• R Development Core Team . 2010 . R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing , Vienna : R Foundation for Statistical Computing .
   Google Scholar
• Raftery , A. E. , Givens , G. H. and Zeh , J. E. 1995 . “Inference From a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales,” . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 90 : 402 – 416 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Raftery , A. E. and Lewis , S. M. 1996 . “Implementing MCMC,” . In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice , Edited by: Gilks , W. R. , Richardson , S. and Spiegelhalter , D. J. 115 – 130 . London : Chapman & Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Raymer , J. , de Beer , J. and van der Erf , R. 2011 . “Putting the Pieces of the Puzzle Together: Age and Sex-Specific Estimates of Migration Amongst Countries in the EU/EFTA, 2002–2007,” . European Journal of Population , 27 : 185 – 215 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosina , A. 2004 . “Using Information on the Age Distribution of Deaths in Population Reconstruction: An Extension of Inverse Projection With Applications ” . In Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches , Edited by: Barbi , E. , Bertino , S. and Sonnino , E. 29 – 38 . Berlin : Springer-Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Timæus , I. M. 1999 . “Notes on a Series of Life Table Estimates of Mortality in the Countries of the Sub-Saharan Africa Region,” . unpublished manuscript prepared for the World Health Organization
   Google Scholar
• United Nations . 1983 . Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation , New York : Department of International, Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations .
   Google Scholar
• United Nations . 2009a . World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision , New York : Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations . Vol. I: Comparative Tables
   Google Scholar
• United Nations . 2009b . World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision , New York : Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations . Vol. II: Sex and Age Distribution
   Google Scholar
• United Nations . 2010 . World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision , New York : Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations . Vol. III: Analytical Report
   Google Scholar
• United States Census Bureau . 2008 . International Data Base: Demographic Indicators, Burkina Faso, 1960–2000 Available at http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php
   Google Scholar
• Wrigley , E. A. and Schofield , R. S. 1981 . The Population History of England, 1541–1871: A Reconstruction , London : Edward Arnold .
   Google Scholar