Contested baselines and transboundary water resources management, with illustrations from the Nile

References

• Aagaard, T. S. (2011). Environmental harms, use conflicts, and neutral baselines in environmental law. Duke Law Journal, 60(7), 1505–1564. https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/dlj/vol60/iss7/1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(2), 391–425. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20191450
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alagona, P. S., Sandlos, J., & Wiersma, Y. F. (2012). Past imperfect: Using historical ecology and baseline data for conservation and restoration projects in North America. Environmental Philosophy, 9(1), 49–70. https://doi.org/10.5840/envirophil2012914
   Google Scholar
• Aldy, J. E. (2014). Learning from experience: An assessment of the retrospective reviews of agency rules and the evidence of improving the design and implementation of regulatory policy. Report prepared for the Administrative Conference of the United States. https://www.acus.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Aldy%2520Retro%2520Review%2520Draft%252011-17-2014.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Allan, J. A. (2019a). Invited opinion interview with Professor Tony Allan: “Water scarcity, food production, and virtual water” (Part 1). Water Economics and Policy, 6(1), 1-14. doi: 10.1142/S2382624X19710036.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Allan, J. A. (2019b). Policy note: Invited opinion interview with professor Tony Allan: ‘Water scarcity, food production, and virtual water’ ( Part 2). Water Economics and Policy, 6(2), Part 2) https://doi.org/10.1142/S2382624X19710048
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2010). The credibility revolution in empirical economics: How better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2009). The experimental approach to development economics. Annual Review of Economics, 1(1), 151–178. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.143235
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barandiarran, J. (2019). Documenting rubble to shift baselines: Environmental assessments and damaged glaciers in Chile. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 3(1), 58–75. doi:10.1177/2514848619873317.
   Google Scholar
• Basheer, M. (2021). Cooperative operation of the Grand Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods. River Research and Applications, 37(6), 805–814. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3799
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Basheer, M., Nechifor, V., Calzadilla, A., Siddig, K., Etichia, M., Whittington, D., Hulme, D., & Harou, J. J. (2021). Flexible collaboration on the Nile increases benefits and enhances economic resilience. Nature Communications, 12(1), 5622. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25877-w|www.nature.com/naturecommunications
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bento, A. M., Kanbur, R., & Leard, B. (2016). On the importance of baseline setting in markets for carbon offsets. Climatic Change, 137(3–4), 625–637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1685-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blackmore, D., & Whittington, D. (2008). Opportunities for cooperative water resources development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and rewards. Final Report of the Scoping Study Team to the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers. World Bank.
   Google Scholar
• Boardman, A., Greenberg, D., Vining, A., & Weimer, D. (2018). Cost–benefit analysis: Concepts and practices (5th ed.). Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bonebrake, T. C., Christensen, J., Boggs, C. L., & Ehrlich, P. (2010). Population decline assessment, historical baselines, and conservation. Conservation Letters, 3(6), 371–378. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2010.00139.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Braverman, R. (2020). Shifting baselines in coral conservation. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 3(1), 20–39. doi: 10.1177/2514848619882560.
   Google Scholar
• Craig, R. K. (2014). Perceiving change and knowing nature: Shifting baselines and nature’s resiliency. In K. Hirokawa (Ed.), Environmental law and contrasting ideas of nature: A constructivist approach (pp. 87–111). Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Farmer, W. H., & Vogel, R. M. (2016). On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrological models. Water Resources Research, 52(7), 5619–5633. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019129
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fiering, M., & Jackson, B. B. (1991). Synthetic streamflows. Monograph. American geophysical union water resources monograph series (Vol. 1). Wiley.
   Google Scholar
• Frost, R. (1915, August). The road not taken. The Atlantic Monthly, 223.
   Google Scholar
• Heijnert, K. (2018). Paper PS3 presented at Cairo International Water Week 2018. In Session on transboundary water governance and benefit sharing. Ministry of Water Resources.
   Google Scholar
• Hilborn, R., & Walters, C. J. (1981). Pitfalls of environmental baseline and process studies. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2(3), 265–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-9255(81)80062-5
   Google Scholar
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Climate change 2021 The physical science basis. Report of Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. October. 978-92-9169-158-6. websitewww.ipcc.ch
   Google Scholar
• International Panel of Experts. (2013). Final report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. May 31. Addis Ababa. Available at the International Rivers site. https://archive.internationalrivers.org
   Google Scholar
• Jeuland, M., & Pattanayak, S. (2012, February). Benefits and costs of improved cookstoves: Assessing the implications of variability in health, forest, and climate impacts. PLOS, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0030338
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jeuland, M., & Whittington, D. (2014). Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile. Water Resources Research, 50(3), 2086–2107. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013705
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kinchy, A. (2019). Contentious baselining: The politics of ‘pre-drilling’ environmental measures in shale gas territory. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 3(1), 76–94. doi: 10.1177/2514848619877585.
   Google Scholar
• Knetsch, J. L. (2020). Behavioural economics, cost–benefit analysis, and the WTP versus WTA choice. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 14(2–3), 153–196. https://doi.org/10.1561/101.00000119
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knowlton, N., & Jackson, J. (2008). Shifting baselines, local impacts, and global change on coral reefs. PLOS Biology, 6(2), e54. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0060054
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., Groves, D., Kalra, N., Fischbach, J.R., Bankes, S.C., Bryant, B.P., Collins, M.T., Keller, K., Hackbarth, A.,& Dixon, L. (2013). Making good decisions without predictions. Robust decision making under deep uncertainty. Rand Corporation.
   Google Scholar
• Lind, J. T., Nyborg, K., & Pauls, A. (2019). Save the planet or close your eyes? Testing strategic ignorance in a charity context. Ecological Economics, 161(9), 19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.02.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McClenachan, L., Jackson, J. B. C., & Newman, M. J. H. (2006). Conservation implications of historic sea turtle nesting loss. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 4(6), 290–296. https://doi.org/10.1890/1540-929520064290:CIOHST2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nguyen, K. T., Knetsch, J. L., & Mahasuweerachai, P. (2021). WTP or WTA: A means of determining the appropriate welfare measure of positive and negative changes when preferences are reference dependent. Environmental and Resource Economics, 78(4), 615–633. https://doi.org/10.1007/s106640-021-00546-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pauly, D. (1995). Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 10(10), 430. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5347(00)89171-5
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pauly, D. (2019). Vanishing fish: Shifting baselines and the future of global fisheries. Greystone Books.
   Google Scholar
• Pyle, R. M. (2003). Nature matrix: Reconnecting people and nature. Oryx, 37(2), 206–214. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605303000383
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quinn, A. K., Williams, K., Thompson, L., Rosa, G., Díaz-Artiga, A., Thangavel, G., Balakrishnan, K., Miranda, J. J., Rosenthal, J. P., Clasen, T. F., & Harvey, S. A. (2019). Compensating control participants when the intervention is of significant value: Experience in Guatemala, India, Peru and Rwanda. BMJ Global Health, 4(4), e001567. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001567
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robinson, L. A., Hammitt, J. K., Cecchini, M. Chalkidou, K., Claxton, K., Cropper, M., Eozenou, P.H.V., de Ferranti, D., Deolalikar, A.B., Guanais, D.T., Jamison, S., Kwon, J. A., Lauer, L., O’Keeffe, D., Walker, D., Whittington, T., Wilkinson, D., Wilson, and B. Wong. (2019). Reference case guidelines for benefit-cost analysis in global health and development. Report. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. https://cdn2.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/94/2019/05/BCA-Guidelines-May-2019.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Schlee, E. E., & Smith, V. K. (2019). The welfare cost of uncertainty in policy outcomes. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 98, 102264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2019.102264
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• United States Department Health and Human Services. (2016). Guidelines for regulatory impact analyses. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.
   Google Scholar
• United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2010). Guidelines for preparing economic analyses. National Center for Environmental Economics, Office of Policy. Updated May 2014
   Google Scholar
• Ureta, S. (2018). Baselining pollution: Producing ‘natural soil’ for an environmental risk assessment exercise in Chile. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 20(3), 342–355. https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2017.1410430
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ureta, S., Lekan, T., & von Hardenberg, W. (2020). Baselining nature: An introduction. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 3(1), 3–19. https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848619898092
   Google Scholar
• Wheeler, K. (2022). The GERD dam filling impact and mitigation. UCLA Lecture Series – The Nile River Basin in crisis: Water sharing and transboundary conflict or cooperation. Interview. January 26. http://waterbalance.org/public-presentations/
   Google Scholar
• Wheeler, K. G., Basheer, M., Mekonnen, Z. T., Eltoum, S. O., Mersha, A., Abdo, G. M., Zagona, E. A., Hall, J. W., & Dadson, S. J. (2016). Cooperative filling strategies for the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam. Water International, 41(4), 611–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1177698
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wheeler, K. G., Hall, J. W., Abdo, G. M., Dadson, S. J., Kasprzyk, J. R., Smith, R., & Zagona, E. A. (2018). Exploring cooperative transboundary river management strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin. Water Resources Research, 54(11), 9224–9254. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022149
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wheeler, K., Jeuland, M., Hall, J. W., Zagona, E., & Whittington, D. (2020, October 16). Understanding and managing new risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10/1038/s41467-020-19089-x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Whittington, D., & Adamowicz, W. (2011). The use of hypothetical baselines in stated preference surveys. In Y. Alem (Ed.), Environment for development discussion paper series, EfD (pp. 11). University of Gothenburg, Environmental Economics Unit.
   Google Scholar
• Whittington, D., Adamowicz, W., & Lloyd-Smith, P. (2017). Asking willingness-to-accept questions in stated preference surveys: A review and research agenda. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 9, 317–336. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-121416-125602
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Whittington, D., Waterbury, J., & Jeuland, M. (2014). The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. Water Policy, 16(4), 595–608. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2014.011b
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar