Prediction as a Basis for Planning and Response

References

• Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council . 1998 . The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century. National Academy Press Washington, DC, USA: 364 pages
   Google Scholar
• Chagnon , S. A. 2000 . In Prediction, Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. 85 – 106 . “Flood Prediction: Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy.” D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielkle, Jr., and R. Byerly, Jr., eds. Washington, DC, USA: Island Press
   Google Scholar
• Dai , A. , Meehl , G. , Washington , W. M. , Wigley , T. M.L. and Arblaster , J. M. 2001 . “Ensemble Simulation of Twenty-first Century Climate Changes: Business-as-usual versus CO2 Stabilization.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 82 : 2377 – 2388 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Etkin , D. 2001 . “Canadian Natural Hazards Assessment Project.” Presentation to Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction 3rd Annual Symposium, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (to be published)
   Google Scholar
• Harris , S. 1995 . “International Public Goods, the Climate and Meteorological Services.” World Meteorological Day (WMD) speech, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
   Google Scholar
• Glantz , M. H. 2001 . Currents of Change: Impacts of El Nino and La Nina on Climate and Society. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gleick , J. 1987 . Chaos, Making a New Science. New York, New York, USA : Penguin Books .
   Google Scholar
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . 2001 . Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press (see www.ipcc.org)
   Google Scholar
• Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , F. W. 2000 . “Changes in the Extreme in an Ensemble of Transient Climate Simulation with a Coupled Atmosphere-ocean GCM.” . Journal of Climate , 13 : 3760 – 3788 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lorenz , E. N. 1963 . “Deterministic Non-periodic Flow.” . J. Atmos. Science , 20 : 130 – 141 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McBean , G. A. 2000 . “Forecasting in the 21st Century.” , World Meteorological Organization No. 916 Geneva, Switzerland
   Google Scholar
• Meehl , G. A. , Karl , T. , Easterling , D. R. , Changnon , S. , Pielke Jr. , R. , Changnon , D. , Evans , J. , Grossman , P. Y. , Knutson , T. R. , Kunkel , K. , Mearns , L. O. , Root , T. , Street , R. B. , Sylves , R. T. , Whetton , P. and Zwiers , F. W. 2000a . “An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socio-economic Impacts, and Model Projections.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81 : 413 – 416 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meehl , G. A. , Zwiers , F. W. , Knutson , T. , Mearns , L. O. and Whetton , P. 2000b . “Trends in ExtremeWeather in Climate Events: Issues Related to Modelling Extremes in Projection of Future Climate Change.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81 : 427 – 436 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mileti , D. 1999 . Disasters by Design. Washington, DC, USA : Joseph Henry Press .
   Google Scholar
• Sarewitz , D. , Piekle , R. A. Jr. and Byerly , R. Jr. , eds. 2000 . Prediction, Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC, USA: Island Press
   Google Scholar
• Shukla , J. , Anderson , J. , Baumgartner , D. , Brankovic , C. , Chang , Y. , Kalnay , E. , Marx , L. , Palmer , T. , Paolino , D. , Ploshay , J. , Schubert , S. , Straus , D. , Saurez , M. and Tribbia , J. 2000 . “Dynamical Seasonal Prediction.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81 : 2593 – 2606 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trenberth , K. E. 1997 . “Short-term Climate Variations: Recent Accomplishments and Issues for Future Progress.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 78 : 1081 – 1096 .
   Google Scholar
• Watson , R. 2000 . “Presentation to the opening of the Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (see www.ipcc.org)
   Google Scholar
• White , G. F. 1994 . “A Perspective of Reducing Losses from Natural Hazards.” . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 75 : 1237 – 1240 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zwiers , F. W. and Kharin , V. V. 1998 . “Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 Doubling.” . Journal of Climate , 11 : 2200 – 2222 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar