Modeling and prediction of primary energy supply and electricity generation structures based on Markov chain: an insight with focus on the role of natural gas in Pakistan

References

• Aguilera, R. F., and R. D. Ripple. 2011. “Using Size Distribution Analysis to Forecast Natural Gas Resources in Asia Pacific.” Applied Energy 88 (12): 4607–4620. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.057.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ahmad, H., and N. Hayat. 2020. “Markov Chain Based Modelling and Prediction of Natural Gas Allocation Structure Pattern in Pakistan.” International Journal of Energy Sector Management 14 (5): 911–933. doi:10.1108/IJESM-12-2019-0002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ahn, J., J. Woo, and J. Lee. 2015. “Optimal Allocation of Energy Sources for Sustainable Development in South Korea: Focus on the Electric Power Generation Industry.” Energy Policy 78: 78–90. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.023.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aized, T., M. Shahid, A. A. Bhatti, M. Saleem, and G. Anandaraja. 2018. “Energy Security and Renewable Energy Policy Analysis of Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 84: 155–169. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.254.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Andersen, T. B., O. B. Nilsen, and R. Tveteras. 2011. “How Is Demand for Gas Determined Across European Industrial Sectors?” Energy Policy 39 (9): 5499–5508. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bhat, M. A. 2014. “America and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas Pipeline.” African Journal of Political Science and International Relations 8 (8): 260–265. doi:10.5897/AJPSIR2014.0696.
   Google Scholar
• Bhutto, A. W., and S. Karim. 2005. “Coal Gasification for Sustainable Development of the Energy Sector in Pakistan.” Energy for Sustainable Development 9 (4): 60–67. doi:10.1016/S0973-0826(08)60500-1.
   Google Scholar
• Billio, M., R. Casarin, and A. Osuntuyi. 2018. “Markov Switching GARCH Models for Bayesian Hedging on Energy Futures Markets.” Energy Economics 70: 545–562. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.06.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bishoge, O. K., L. Zhang, W. G. Mushi, and N. Matomela. 2019. “A Literature Survey of Community Participation in the Natural Gas Sector in Developing Countries.” International Journal of Energy Sector Management 13 (4): 765–786. doi:10.1108/IJESM-11-2018-0003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• BP (British Petroleum). 2018. Statistical Review of World Energy 2018: Natural Gas. Report 67th edition. London, UK: British Petroleum.
   Google Scholar
• Chen, Y., X. Lin, and S. Zhang. 2019. “A Proportion Prediction Model of Terminal Energy Structure of IPS Based on Hidden Markov Chain.” Procedia CIRP 83: 456–460. doi:10.1016/j.procir.2019.04.136.
   Google Scholar
• Demirbaş, A. 2001. “Energy Balance, Energy Sources, Energy Policy, Future Developments and Energy Investments in Turkey.” Energy Conversion and Management 42 (10): 1239–1258. doi:10.1016/S0196-8904(00)00109-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ediger, V. Ş., and S. Akar. 2007. “ARIMA Forecasting of Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in Turkey.” Energy Policy 35 (3): 1701–1708. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.05.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• FD-GOP (Finance Division - Government of Pakistan). 2018. Pakistan Economic Survey, 2017-18. Islamabad, Pakistan: FD-FOP.
   Google Scholar
• FD-GOP (Finance Division-Government of Pakistan). 2019. Pakistan Economic Survey, 2018-19. Islamabad, Pakistan: FD-FOP.
   Google Scholar
• Giziene, V., and L. Zalgiryte. 2015. “The Assessment of Natural Gas Pricing.” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 213: 111–116. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.412.
   Google Scholar
• He, Y., and B. Lin. 2018. “Forecasting China’s Total Energy Demand and Its Structure Using ADL-MIDAS Model.” Energy 151: 420–429. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.067.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang, W.-T., G. Y.-H. Chen, and P.-S. Chen. 2020. “Taiwan Depository Receipts Forecasting along a Novel Regular Markov Chain Model.” Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers 43 (5): 458–466. doi:10.1080/02533839.2020.1751721.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Javed, S. B., A. A. Uppal, A. I. Bhatti, and R. Samar. 2019. “Prediction and Parametric Analysis of Cavity Growth for the Underground Coal Gasification Project Thar.” Energy 172: 1277–1290. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.02.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, P.-C., B. Ye, T.-P. Lo, and D. Long. 2020. “A Dynamic Weighting Adjustment Algorithm for Hybrid Gray Model Based on Artificial Neural Network.” Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers 43 (3): 249–256. doi:10.1080/02533839.2019.1708802.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee, Y.-S., and L.-I. Tong. 2012. “Forecasting Nonlinear Time Series of Energy Consumption Using a Hybrid Dynamic Model.” Applied Energy 94: 251–256. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.01.063.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, W., and C. Lu. 2019. “The Multiple Effectiveness of State Natural Gas Consumption Constraint Policies for Achieving Sustainable Development Targets in China.” Applied Energy 235: 685–698. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, T., B. Wang, and C. Yang. 2018. “Online Markov Chain-Based Energy Management for a Hybrid Tracked Vehicle with Speedy Q-Learning.” Energy 160: 544–555. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.022.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mazhar, M. S., and N. S. Goraya. 2013. “Challenges in Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.” NDU Journal 2013: 163–178.
   Google Scholar
• Meidani, H., and R. Ghanem. 2013. “Multiscale Markov Models with Random Transitions for Energy Demand Management.” Energy and Buildings 61: 267–274. doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.02.020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mirjat, N. H., M. A. Uqaili, K. Harijan, G. D. Valasai, F. Shaikh, and M. Waris. 2017. “A Review of Energy and Power Planning and Policies of Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 79: 110–127. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.040.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• NEPRA-GOP (National Electric Power Regulatory Authority - Government of Pakistan). 2009-2018. State of Industry Reports 2009-2018. Islamabad, Pakistan: NEPRA.
   Google Scholar
• NEPRA-GOP (National Electric Power Regulatory Authority - Government of Pakistan). 2018. State of Industry Reports 2018. Islamabad, Pakistan.
   Google Scholar
• OGRA-GOP (Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority - Government of Pakistan). 2016-2018a. Annual Reports 2016-2018. Islamabad: Pakistan: OGRA-GOP.
   Google Scholar
• OGRA-GOP (Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority - Government of Pakistan). 2016-2018b. Status Pf Regulated Petroleum Industry 2016-2018. Islamabad, Pakistan: OGRA-GOP.
   Google Scholar
• Prek, M. 2019. “Primary Energy Factor for Electricity Mix: The Case of Slovenia.” In Energy Policy [Working Title], 1–17. Ljubljana: IntechOpen. doi:10.5772/intechopen.84570.
   Google Scholar
• Ren, F., and L. Gu. 2016. “Study on Transition of Primary Energy Structure and Carbon Emission Reduction Targets in China Based on Markov Chain Model and GM (1, 1).” Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2016: 1–8. doi:10.1155/2016/4912935.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ren, X., Q. Liu, and Y. Zhang. 2015. “The Proportion of Energy Consumption Structure Prediction Based on Markov Chain.” Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research 7 (3): 378–382.
   Google Scholar
• Soldo, B. 2012. “Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption.” Applied Energy 92: 26–37. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.003.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ullah, K., M. S. Raza, and F. M. Mirza. 2019. “Barriers to Hydro-Power Resource Utilization in Pakistan: A Mixed Approach.” Energy Policy 132: 723–735. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.030.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UN (United Nations). 2015. Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. New York: United Nations.
   Google Scholar
• Usman, M., and N. Hayat. 2020. ““Lubrication, Emissions, and Performance Analyses of LPG and Petrol in a Motorbike Engine.” A. Comparative Study.” Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers 43(1): 47–57. doi:10.1080/02533839.2019.1676656.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vahl, F. P., and N. C. Filho. 2015. “Energy Transition and Path Creation for Natural Gas in the Brazilian Electricity Mix.” Journal of Cleaner Production 86: 221–229. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.08.033.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vega-Coloma, M., and C. A. Zaror. 2018. “Environmental Impact Profile of Electricity Generation in Chile: A Baseline Study over Two Decades.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 194: 154–167. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.05.058.
   Google Scholar
• Yaniktepe, B., M. M. Savrun, and T. Kooruglu. 2013. “Current Status of Wind Energy and Wind Energy Policy in Turkey.” Energy Conversion and Management 72: 103–110. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2012.08.028.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zameer, H., and Y. Wang. 2018. “Energy Production System Optimization: Evidence from Pakistan.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 82: 886–893. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.089.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhen, W., and X. Qing. 2017. “To Fully Exert the Important Role of Natural Gas in Building a Modern Energy Security System in China: An Understanding of China’s National L3th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development.” Natural Gas Industry B 4 (4): 270–277. doi:10.1016/j.ngib.2017.08.010.
   Google Scholar
• Zou, C., Q. Zhao, J. Chen, J. Li, Z. Yang, Q. Sun, J. Lu, and G. Zhang. 2018. “Natural Gas in China: Development Trend and Strategic Forecast.” Natural Gas Industry B 5 (4): 380–390. doi:10.1016/j.ngib.2018.04.010.
   Google Scholar