Assessing the impact of climate change on crop production in southern Africa: a review

References

• Abraha MG, Savage MJ. 2006. Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 115: 150–160.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ainsworth EA, Rogers A. 2007. The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental conditions. Plant, Cell & Environment 30: 258–270.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Allen LH, Kimball BA, Bunce JA, Yoshimoto M, Harazono Y, Baker JT, Boote KJ, White JW. 2020. Fluctuations of CO2 in Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) depress plant photosynthesis, growth, and yield. Agricultural Forest Meteorology 284: 107899.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rötter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman M, Wall GW, White JW, et al. 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5: 143–147.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thornburn PJ, Rotter RP, Cammarano D, et al. 2013. Uncertainty in simulating what yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 827–832.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barlow KM, Christy BP, O’Leary GJ, Riffkin PA, Nuttall JG. 2015. Simulating the impact of extreme hear and frost events on wheat crop production: A review. Field Crops Research 171: 109–119.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barnabás B, Jäger K, Fehér A. 2008. The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals. Plant, Cell and Environment 31: 11–38.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bishop KA, Betzelberger AM, Long SP, Ainsworth EA. 2015. Is there potential to adapt soybean (Glycine max Merr.) to future [CO2]? An analysis of the yield response of 18 genotypes in the free-air CO2 enrichment. Plant, Cell & Environment 38: 1765–1774.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bishop KA, Leakey ADB, Ainsworth A. 2014. How seasonal temperature or water inputs affect the relative response of C3 crops to elevated [CO2]: a global analysis of open top chamber and free air CO2 enrichment studies. Food and Energy Security 3: 33–45.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bunce JA. 2016. Responses of soybeans and wheat to elevated CO2 in free-air and open top chambers. Field Crops Research 186: 78–85.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carter TR. 2013. Multi-model yield projections. Nature Climate Change 3: 784–786.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Slingo JM. 2005. Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135: 180–189.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chipanshi AC, Chanda R, Totolo O. 2003. Vulnerability assessment of the maize and sorghum crops Climatic Change 61: 339–360.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cicchino M, Edreira JIR, Otegui ME. 2010a. Heat stress in field-grown maize: response of phyiological determinants of grain yield. Crop Science 50: 1431–1448.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cicchino M, Edreira JIR, Uribelarrea M, Otegui ME. 2010b. Heat stress in field-grown maize: response of phyiosological determinants of grain yield. Crop Science 50: 1438–1448.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Corbeels M, Berre D, Rusinamhodzi L, Lopez-Ridaura S. 2018. Can we use crop models for identifying climate change options? Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 256–257: 46–52.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cruz JL, Alves AAC, LeCain DR, Ellis DD, Morgan JA. 2016. Elevated CO2 concentrations alleviate the inhibitory effect of drought on physiology and growth of cassava plants. Scientia Horticulturae 210: 122–129.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dier M, Sickora J, Erbs M, Weigel H-J, Zörb C, Manderscheid R. 2018. Decreased wheat grain yield stimulation by free air CO2 enrichment under N deficiency is strongly related to decreased radiation use efficiency enhancement. European Journal of Agronomy 101: 38–48.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Durand J-L, Delusca K, Boote KJ, Lizaso J, Manderscheid R, Weigel HJ, Ruane AC, Rosenzweig C, Jones J, Ahuja L, et al. 2018. How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield? European Journal of Agronomy 100: 67–75.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engelbrecht CJ, Engelbrecht FA, Dyson LL. 2013. High-resolution model-projected changes in mid-tropospheric closed-lows and extreme rainfall events over southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology 33: 173–187.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engelbrecht FA, Adegoke J, Bopape M-J, Naidoo M, Garland R, Thatcher M, McGregor J, Katzfey J, Werner M, Ichoku C, et al. 2015. Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation. Environmental Research Letters 10: 1–16.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fernando N, Panozzo J, Tausz M, Norton R, Fitzgerald G, Seneweera A. 2012. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration affects mineral nutrient and protein concentration of wheat grain. Food Chemistry 13: 1307–1311.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fleisher DH, Condori B, Quiroz R, Alva A, Asseng S, Barreda C, Bindi M, Boote KJ, Ferrise R, Franke AC, et al. 2017. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels. Global Change Biology 23: 1258–1281.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Forbes SJ, Cernusak LA, Northfield TD, Gleadow RM, Lambert S, Cheesman AW. 2020. Elevated temperature and carbon dioxide alter resource allocation to growth, storage and defence in cassava (Manihot esculenta). Environmental and Experimental Botany 2020: 103997.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Franke AC, Haverkort AJ, Steyn JM. 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 2. Assessing risks and opportunities for adaptation. Potato Research 56: 51–66.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Franke AC, Muelelwa LN, Steyn JM. 2020. Impact of climate change on yield and water use efficiencies of potato in different production regions of South Africa. South African Journal of Plant and Soil 37: 244–253.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Franzaring J, Hogy P, Erbs M, Fangmeier A. 2010. Responses of canopy and soil climate in a six year free-air CO2 enrichment study with spring crops. Agricultural Forest Meteorology 150: 354–360.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Grover M, Maheswari M, Desai S, Gopinath KA, Venkateswarlu B. 2015. Elevated CO2: Plant associated microorganisms and carbon sequestration. Applied Soil Ecology 95: 73–85.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hachigonta S, Nelson GC, Thomas TS, Sibanda LM (eds). 2013. Southern African agriculture and climate change, a comprehensive analysis. Washington, DC: IFPRI.
   Google Scholar
• Hasagawa T, Sakai H, Tokida T, Nakamura H, Zhu C, Usui Y, Yoshimoto M, Fukuoka M, Wakatsuki H, Katayanagi n, et al. 2013. Rice cultivar responses to elevated CO2 at two free-air enrichment sires in Japan. Functional Plant Biology 40: 148–159.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haverkort AJ, Franke AC, Engelbrecht FA, Steyn JM. 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 1. Effects on land and water use efficiencies. Potato Research 56: 31–50.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Irigoyen JJ, Goicoechea N, Antolín MC, Pascual I, Sánchez-Díaz M, Aguirreolea J, Morales F. 2014. Growth, photosynthetic acclimation and yield quality in legumes under climate change simulatuons: An updated survey. Plant Science 226: 22–29.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jones MR, Singels A. 2018. Refining the Canegro model for improved simulation if climate change impacts on sugarcane. European Journal of Agronomy 100: 76–86.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jones MR, Singels A, Ruane AC. 2015. Simulated impacts of climate change on water use and yield of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa. Agricultural Systems 139: 260-270.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kasper T, Bland KL. 1992. Soil temperature and root growth. Soil Science 154: 290–299.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kimball BA. 2016. Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H2O, N, and temperature. Current Opinion in Plant Biology 31: 36–43.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knox JW, Diaz JAR, Nixon DJ, Mkhwanazi M. 2010. A premininary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland. Agricultural Systems 103: 63–72.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kruger AC, Nxumalo MP. 2017. Historical rainfall trends in South Africa: 1921–2015. Water SA 43: 285–297.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kruger AC, Sekele SS. 2013. Trends in extreme temperature indices in South Africa: 1962–2009. International Journal of Climatology 33: 661–676.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leadley PW, Drake BG. 1993. Open top chambers for exposing plant canopies to elevated CO2 concentration and for measuring net gas exchange. Plant Ecology 104: 3–15.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leakey ADB, Bishop KA, Ainsworth EA. 2012. A multi-biome gap in understanding of crop and ecosystem responses to elevated CO2. Current Opinion in Plant Biology 15: 228–236.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mabhaudhi T, Chibarabada TP, Chimonyo VGP, Modi AT. 2018. Modelling climate change impact: A case of Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 105: 25–31.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Manderscheid R, Dier M, Erbs M, Sickora J, Weigel H-J. 2018. Nitrogen supply – A determinant in water use efficiency of winter wheat grown under free air CO2 enrichment. Agricultural Water Management 210: 70–77.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maúre G, Pinto I, Ndebele-Murisa M, Muthige M, Lennard C, Nikulin G, Dosio A, Meque A. 2018. The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters 13: 065002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M. 2010. Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Climatic Change 104: 679–701.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Msowoya K, Madani K, Davtalab R, Mirchi A, Lund JR. 2016. Climate change impacts on maize production in the warm heart of Africa. Water Resource Management 30: 5299–5312.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pleijel H, Högy P. 2015. CO2 dose–response functions for wheat grain, protein and mineral yield based on FACE and open-top chamber experiments. Environmental Pollution 198: 70–77.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Porter JR, Gawith M. 1999. Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. European Journal of Agronomy 10: 23–36.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rattalino Edreira JI, Budakli Carpici E, Sammarro D, Otegui ME. 2011. Heat stress effects around flowering on kernet set of temperate and tropical maize hybrids. Field Crops Research 123: 62–73.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rezaei EE, Webber H, Gaiser T, Naab J, Ewert F. 2015. Heat stress in cereals: Mechanisms and modelling. European Journal of Agronomy 64: 98–113.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosenthal DM, Slattery RA, Miller RE, Grennan AK, Vavagnaro TR, Fauquet CM, Geadow RM, Ort DR. 2012. Cassava about-FACE: Greater than expected yield stimulation of cassava (Manihot esculenta) by future CO2 levels. Global Change Biology 18: 2661–2675.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salo TJ, Palosuo T, Kersebaum KC, Nendel C. 2016. Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilisation. The Journal of Agricultural Science 154: 1218–1240.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schapendonk A, van Ooijen M, Dijkstra M, Pot SC, Jordi WJRM, Stoopen GM. 2000. Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on photosynthetic acclimation and productivity of two potato cultivars grown in open-top chambers. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 7: 1119–1130.
   Google Scholar
• Schlenker W, Lobell DB. 2010. Robust negative impacts of climate change in African agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 5: 1–8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shimono H. 2011. Rice genotypes that respond strong to elevated CO2 also respond strongly to low planting density. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 141: 240–243.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Siebers MH, Slattery RA, Yendrek CR, Locke AM, Drag D, Ainsworth EA, Bernacchi CJ, Ort DR. 2017. Simulated heat waves during maize reproductive stages alter reproductive growth but have no lasting effect when applied during vegetative stages. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 240: 162–170.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Singels A, Jones M, Marin F, Ruane AC, Thorburn P. 2014. Predicting climate change impacts on sugarcane production at sites in Australia, Brazil and South Africa using the Canegro model. Sugar Tech 16: 347–355.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stevens T, Madani K. 2016. Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi. Nature Scientific Reports 6:36241.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stokes CJ, Inman-Bamber NG, Everingham YL, Sexton J. 2016. Measuring and modelling CO2 effects on sugarcane. Environmental Modelling & Software 78: 68–78.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tao F, Rötter RP, Palosuo T, Díaz-Ambrona CGH, Minguez MI, Semenov MA, Kersebaum KC, Nendel C, Specka X, Hoffman H, et al. 2018. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Global Change Biology 24: 1291–1307.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thornton PK, Jones PG, Ericksen PJ, Challinor AJ. 2011. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369: 117–136.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Valerio M, Tomecek M, Lovelli S, Ziska L. 2013. Assessing the impact of increasing carbon dioxide and temperature on crop-weed interactions for tomato and a C3 and C4 weed species. European Journal of Agronomy 50: 60–65.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van der Kooi CJ, Reich M, Low M, De Kok LJ, Tausz M. 2016. Growth and yield stimulation under elevated CO2 and drought: a meta-analysis on crops. Environmental and Experimental Botany 122: 150–157.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van Oort PAJ, Saito K, Zwart SJ, Shrestha S. 2014. A simple model for simulating heat induced sterility in rice as a function of flowering time and transpirational cooling. Field Crops Research 156: 303–312.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vanuytrecht E, Raes D, Willems P. 2011. Considering sink strength to model crop production under elevated atmospheric CO2. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151: 1753–1762.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vermeulen SJ, Challinor AJ, Thornton PK, Campbell BM, Eriyagama N, Vervoort JM, Kinyangi J, Jarvis A, Laderach P, Ramirez-Villegas J, et al. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 8357–8362.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Waha K, Müller C, Rolinski S. 2013. Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid-to late-21st century. Global and Planetary Change 106: 1–12.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker NJ, Schulze RE. 2006. An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 31: 995–1002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker NJ, Schulze RE. 2008. Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 124: 114–124.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang L, Feng Z, Schjoerring JK. 2013. Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on physiology and yield of what (Triticum aestivum L.: a meta-analytic test of current hypotheses. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 178: 57–63.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Warnatzsch EA, Reay DS. 2019. Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: an evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning. Science of the Total Environment 654: 378–392.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Warnatzsch EA, Reay DS. 2020. Assessing climate change projections and impacts on Central Malawi’s maize yield: The risk of maladaptation. Science of the Total Environment 711: 134845.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Webber H, Gaiser T, Ewert F. 2014. What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in sub-Saharan Africa? Agricultural Systems 127: 161–177.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Webber H, Martre P, Asseng S, Kimball BA, White J, Ottman M, Wall GW, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Grant R, et al. 2017. Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: a multi-model comparison. Field Crops Research 202: 21–35.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhao J, Hartmann H, Trumbore S, Ziegler W, Zhang Y. 2013. High temperature causes negative whole-plant canrbon balance under mild drought. New Phytology 200: 300–309.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zinyengere N, Crespo O, Hachigonta S. 2013. Crop response to climate change in southern Africa: a comprehensive review. Global and Planetary Change 111: 118–126.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zinyengere N, Crespo O, Hachigonta S, Tadross M. 2014. Local impacts of climate change and agronomic practices on dry land crops in southern Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 197: 1–10.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ziska LH. 2016. The role of climate change and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on weed management: Herbicide efficacy. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 231: 304–309.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar