Namibia: on brinkmanship, conflict and self‐interest — the collapse of the UN‐plan

REFERENCES

• In the case of Britain, such economic stakes are enormous: investment in South Africa accounts for about 10 percent of Britain's total direct overseas investment, with a market value of 8 billion pounds. Other European stakes in South Africa are growing, not receding. France's trade with South Africa, as a percentage of its world trade, has doubled over the past three years alone.
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• During the period 1976–1977 South Africa was dependent on Iran for some 80 percent of its foreign oil imports.
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• In the opinion of the South African Government an early election would have allowed SWAPO limited time to campaign, and above all to intimidate the local population. The Turnhalle Parties with their superior organisational capacity and financial backing would have enjoyed the edge over SWAPO, especially since the movement faced internal problems following the Shipanga split.
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• In terms of Proclamation No. A.G. 4 Repeal of Certain Laws, of 14 October 1977, the Immorality Proclamation of 1934, subsequent amendments, and the General Law Amendment Ordinance (Ordinance 12 of 1956) were repealed.
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• In terms of Proclamation No. A.G. 5 General Law Amendment Proclamation, of 21 October 1977, the Pass Laws and other influx control regulations were either amended or repealed.
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• Mr Vorster and other senior ministers supported the Mudge faction in Namibia, while the more verkrampte Connie Mulder and Dr Treurnicht tended to be more sympathetic towards the Du Plessis faction. This internal friction in the cabinet undoubtedly produced a certain immobility in policy toward Namibia.
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• Proclamation 202 of 31 August 1977 provided for Walvis Bay again to be administered as pan of the Province of the Cape of Good Hope, instead of as part of Namibia, with effect from 1 September 1977.
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• Even before the collapse of the Shah's regime in 1978. South Africa started to make contingency plans, by diversifying its oil imports and by developing local oil‐from‐coal technology.
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• 26 February 1978 . Reported in the Sunday Times 26 February , 2 Johannesburg
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• Mr Kapuuo was succeeded by Kuaime Riruako as leader of the National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO) a constituent party of the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA).
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• The five Western Powers had little choice in the matter, because they feared that both South Africa and SWAPO, supported by the Soviet Union, could have used the issue of Walvis Bay as a pretext to wreck the negotiations. For the view of the Western ‘contact group’ on the issue of Walvis Bay, see Canada supports a new proposal for Namibian independence, address of the Secretary of State for External Affairs, the Hon. Don Jamieson, to the Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly on Namibia, New York, 25 April 1978, Ottawa, Information Services Division, Department of External Affairs, pp.1–8. See also Statement by the Secretary of Slate, Mr. C. Vance, in the Security Council July 27, 1978, pp.1–3. (Mr Vance spoke on behalf of the Five.)
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• This is of course well known practice in negotiations of this nature.
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• In a series of interviews conducted by the author with internal SWAPO spokesmen at the time, it became apparent that SWAPO was uncertain about its chances in an early UN supervised election, hence its insistence on a longer transitional period.
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• Proclamation No. A.G. 26/1978, empowered the Administrator‐General to order detention without trial ‘to prevent violence and intimidation’. Since its introduction it has been used mainly against internal SWAPO supporters.
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• The military raid on Cassinga was also carried out for logistic and security reasons. The fact of the matter was that SWAPO had planned an attack on a prestige target in Namibia. For the strategic‐military considerations of the raid, see Press Conference by Major‐General Jannie Geldenhuys, Officer Commanding South West Africa Command, Windhoek. Friday, 5 May 1978 and Monday, 8 May 1978.
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• See Report of the UN Secretary‐General, Dr Kurt Waldheim, on the Implementation of the Five's Settlement Proposal on Namibia. Circulated on 30 August 1978 as Security Council Document S/12827.
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• du Pisani , André . November 1980 . A Review of the Diplomatic Efforts of the Western Contact Groupl on Namibia, 1976–1980 , November , 1 – 8 . SAIIA . Occasional Paper,
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• The Star , (Johannesburg) 24 July 1978
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• 30 August 1978 . Namibia: Report of the Secretary‐General on the implementation of the Five's Settlement Proposal on Namibia 30 August ,
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• Ibid., Part III of the Report “Establishment of UNTAG”, “A. Military Component”, Paragraph 26.
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• Ibid., Paragraph 29.
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• Republic of South Africa, Department of Foreign Affairs . Statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Hon. R.F. Botha, issued Pretoria 6 September 1978 1 – 17 . See
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• South African Digest , Week ended September 8 , 1978 , p. 11 . (Issued by the Department of Information .)
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• 1980 . “ Executive authority was transferred to the Council of Ministers’ in terms of Proclamation No. A.G. 19 ” . In Establishment and Powers of a Council of Ministers for South West Africa
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• The transfer of the administration of the Department of the South African Police to the Administrator‐General, was done in terms of Proclamation No. 169, 1890 issued by the State President of the Republic of South Africa.
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• Provision for these ethnic elections was made in terms of Proclamation No. A.C. 8, Representative Authorities Proclamation (1980), of 24 April 1980.
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• Geldenhuys , Deon . 1979 . The Neutral Option and Sub‐Continental Solidarity: A consideration of Foreign Minister Pik Rotha's Zürich statement of 7 March 1979 , 3 – 5 . Johannesburg : SAIIA . For an illuminating analysis of this speech see
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• This regional foreign policy has been termed by Mr P.W. Botha as the creation of a ‘Constellation of Southern African States’, although he did not use this concept for the first time.
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