REFERENCES

• Abraham, B. and Ledolter, J., 2005. Statistical methods for forecasting. New York: Wiley–Interscience Publication.
   Google Scholar
• Ali, G., et al., 2012. A comparison of similarity indices for catchment classification using a cross-regional dataset. Advances in Water Resources, 40, 11–22. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.01.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aziz, O.I.A. and Burn, D.H., 2006. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 319 (1–4), 282–294. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.039
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Batelaan, O., 2006. Phreatology. Characterizing groundwater recharge and discharge using remote sensing, GIS, ecology, hydrochemistry and groundwater modeling. Brussel: Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Faculty of Engineering Vrije Universiteit.
   Google Scholar
• Batelaan, O., De Smedt, F., and Triest, L., 2003. Regional groundwater discharge: phreatophyte mapping, groundwater modelling and impact analysis of land-use change. Journal of Hydrology, 275, 86–108. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00018-0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bates, B.C., et al., Eds., 2008. Climate change and water-Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat.
   Google Scholar
• Blöeschl, G., 2001. Scaling in hydrology. Hydrological Processes, 15 (4), 709–711. doi:10.1002/hyp.432
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bogena, H., et al., 2005. Distributed modeling of groundwater recharge at the macroscale. Ecological Modelling - ECOL MODEL, 187 (1), 15–26. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.023
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brockwell, P.J. and Davis, R.A., 2002. Introduction to time series and forecasting. 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag.
   Google Scholar
• Buczyński, S. and Staśko, S., 2004. Changes and tendency occurring in Lower Silesia groundwater management based on example from Bystrzyca River basin. In: PIG, ed. Geological and environmental problems of husbanding and the protection of Upper and the Central Odra valley. Wrocław: Publishing House PIG, 165–176. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Charemza, W.W. and Syczewska, E.M., 1998. Joint application of the Dickey-Fuller and KPSS tests. Economics Letters, 61 (1), 17–21. doi:10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00149-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chatfield, C., 2004. The analysis of time series. An introduction. 6th ed. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
   Google Scholar
• Chełmicki, W., 1991. Regime of shallow groundwater in Poland. Cracow: Jagiellonian University (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Chen, Z., Grasby, S.E., and Osadetz, K.G., 2004. Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 290 (1–2), 43–62. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.029
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohn, T.A. and Lins, H.F., 2005. Nature’s style: naturally trendy. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (23), L23402. doi:10.1029/2005GL024476
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–1072. doi:10.2307/1912517
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doglioni, A., et al., 2010. Inferring groundwater system dynamics from hydrological time-series data. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (4), 593–608. doi:10.1080/02626661003747556
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Döll, P., 2009. Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 4 (3), 035006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• EU Water Framework Directive, 2000. Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy [online]. European Commission. Available from:: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/ [Accessed 20 July 2013].
   Google Scholar
• Fenicia, F., et al., 2005. Is the groundwater reservoir linear? Learning from data in hydrological modelling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2, 1717–1755. doi:10.5194/hessd-2-1717-2005
   Google Scholar
• Ferdowsian, R. and Pannell, D.J., 2001. Explaining trends in groundwater depths: distinguishing between atypical rainfall events, time trends, and the impacts of treatments, In: F. Ghassemi, P. Whetton, R. Little, and M. Littleboy, eds. MODSIM 2001, International congress on modelling and simulation, Proceedings, Volume 2: Natural Systems (Part Two), 10–13 December, The Australian National University, Canberra. Canberra: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 549–554.
   Google Scholar
• Ferdowsian, R., et al., 2001. Explaining groundwater hydrographs: separating atypical rainfall events from time trends. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 39, 861–875. doi:10.1071/SR00037
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ghile, Y., Schulze, R., and Brown, C., 2010. Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (4), 497–511. doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.481374
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goulden, M., Conway, D., and Persechino, A., 2009. Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review / Adaptation au changement climatique dans les bassins fluviaux internationaux en Afrique: une revue. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (5), 805–828. doi:10.1623/hysj.54.5.805
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Graf, R., 2010. Tendencies in the changes of shallow groundwater levels in the Wielkopolska Lowland in the years 1961-2000. In: R. Graf and M. Marciniak, eds. Groundwater resources, endangering and protection. Studies and Papers in Geography and Geology 11. Poznan: Bogucki Publishing House, 79–95. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Graf, R., 2012. The structure and functioning of local groundwater circulation systems within the Poznan Plateau. Poznan: Bogucki Publishing House. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Griffith, D.A., 2007. Advanced spatial statistics. Berlin: Springer-Verlag GmbH.
   Google Scholar
• Grönwall, J., 2011. Groundwater dependence among poor urban people: out of sight is out of mind? International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development, 3 (1), 26–39. doi:10.1080/19463138.2010.547042
   Google Scholar
• Gutry–Korycka, M., 1984. The analysis and the models of hydrological structure of Poland. Warsaw: The Publishing House of Warsaw University. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Hamilton, J.D., 1994. Time series analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M., 2002. Statistical methods in water resources, book 4, hydrologic analysis and interpretation. Virginia: US Geological Survey.
   Google Scholar
• Johnson, E., et al., 2010. Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 624–635. doi:10.1080/02626661003780458
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kalf, F. and Woolley, D., 2005. Applicability and methodology of determining sustainable yield in groundwater systems. Hydrogeology Journal, 13, 295–312. doi:10.1007/s10040-004-0401-x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kasprowicz, T. and Mager, P., 2007. Observed climatically tendencies on Wielkopolska Lowland. Poznan: 1 Poland Conference ADAGIO (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Khaliq, M.N., et al., 2009. Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers. Journal of Hydrology, 368, 117–130. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.035
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kishel, H.F. and Gerla, P.J., 2002. Characteristics of preferential flow and groundwater discharge to Shingobee Lake, Minnesota, USA. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1921–1934. doi:10.1002/hyp.363
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knotters, M. and Bierkens, M.F.P., 2000. Physical basis of time series models for water table depths. Water Resources Research, 36, 181–188. doi:10.1029/1999WR900288
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Konoplancew, A.A. and Siemionow, S.M., 1979. The prognosis and the cartographical mapping of groundwater regime. Warsaw: Geological Publishing House. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Koutsoyiannis, D., 2006. Nonstationarity versus scaling in hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 324, 239–254. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.022
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koutsoyiannis, D., 2011. Scale of water resources development and sustainability: small is beautiful, large is great. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (4), 553–575. doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.579076
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koutsoyiannis, D., 2013. Hydrology and change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197. doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.804626
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koutsoyiannis, D., Efstratiadis, A., and Georgakakos, K., 2007. Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: a comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281. doi:10.1175/JHM576.1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koutsoyiannis, D. and Montanari, A., 2007. Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429. doi:10.1029/2006WR005592
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kowalczak, P., Mager, P., and Kępińska-Kasprzak, M., 2007. An assessment of water resources in the context of predicted climate changes in the Wielkopolska District area. Climate changes - opportunities, risks, adaptations. Poznan: Materials of Conference (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Kożuchowski, K. and Żmudzka, E., 2001. Assessment of relations between the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), frequency of forest fires, air temperature, sunshine, precipitation in Poland. Geographia Polonica, 74 (2), 29–40.
   Google Scholar
• Kundzewicz, Z.W., 2011. Nonstationarity in water resources - Central European perspective. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47, 550–562. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00549.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Döll, P., 2009. Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (4), 665–675. doi:10.1623/hysj.54.4.665
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kwiatkowski, D., et al., 1992. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamentowicz, M., Obremska, M., and Mitchell, E.A.D., 2008. Autogenic succession, land-use change, and climatic influences on the Holocene development of a kettle hole mire in Northern Poland (Northern Poland). Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, 151, 21–40. doi:10.1016/j.revpalbo.2008.01.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamoreaux, P.E., et al., 2008. Environmental hydrogeology. 2nd ed. ed. United States: CRC Press Inc.
   Google Scholar
• Leblanc, M., 2007. An investigation of the risk to natural assets from groundwater salinisation. Thesis (Project: NAP272). Monash and Deakin universities and Glenelg-Hopkins Catchment Management Authority.
   Google Scholar
• Lin, H. and Rathbun, S., 2003. Hierarchical frameworks for multiscale bridging in hydropedology. In: Y. Pachepsky, D.E. Radcliffe, and H.M. Selim, eds Scaling methods in soil physics. London: CRC Press, 347–371.
   Google Scholar
• Lutkepol, H. and Kratzig, M., 2004. Applied Time Series Econometrics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Maddala, G.S., 2008. Introduction to econometrics. Warsaw: Publishing House of the PWN. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Milly, P.C.D., et al., 2008. Climate Change: stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science, 319, 573–574. doi:10.1126/science.1151915
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Norman, H.G., et al., 2001. Impact of human activity on groundwater dynamics. In: H.P.N.E. Gehrels, E. Hoehn, K. Jensen, Ch. Leibundgut, J. Griffioen, B. Webb, and W.J. Zaadnoordijk (eds.). Proceedings of an international symposium, IAHS Publication 269, 23–25 July, Maastricht.
   Google Scholar
• Panda, D.K., Mishra, A., and Kumar, A., 2012. Quantification of trends in groundwater levels of Gujarat in western India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1325–1336. doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.705845
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Patil, A. and Deng, Z.-Q., 2012. Input data measurement-induced uncertainty in watershed modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 118–133. doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.636044
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perez-Valdivia, C. and Sauchyn, D., 2011. Tree-ring reconstruction of groundwater levels in Alberta, Canada: long term hydroclimatic variability. Dendrochronologia, 29 (1), 41–47. doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2010.09.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• PIG–PIB, 2011. Report and Prognosis Polish [online]. Geological Institute, National Research Institute. Available from: http://www.pgi.gov.pl [Accessed 20 July 2013].
   Google Scholar
• Pillai, M., ed., 2003. Groundwater monitoring for environmental condition and salinity management in the Glenelg-Hopkins region. The state of Victoria: Department of primary Industries Research Victoria.
   Google Scholar
• Pirastru, M. and Niedda, M., 2013. Evaluation of the soil water balance in an alluvial flood plain with a shallow groundwater table. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 898–911. doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.783216
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Re, V. and Zuppi, G.M., 2011. Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (6), 966–980. doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.597355
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Riis, T. and Hawes, I., 2002. Relationships between water level fluctuations and vegetation diversity in shallow water of New Zealand lakes. Aquatic Botany, 74, 133–148. doi:10.1016/S0304-3770(02)00074-8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salama, R.B., et al., 1993. Distribution of recharge and discharge areas in a first-order catchment as interpreted from water level patterns. Journal of Hydrology, 143 (3–4), 259–277. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(93)90195-F
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Salama, R.B., et al., 2003. Capture of more recharge and discharge is the only means of increasing the sustainable yield of the Gnangara Mound, Western Australia. London: Environmental Management Series of IWA Publications.
   Google Scholar
• Shamsudduha, M., et al., 2009. Recent trends in groundwater levels in a highly seasonal hydrological system: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 2373–2385. doi:10.5194/hess-13-2373-2009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Singh, P., Thakur, J.K., and Kumar, S., 2013. Delineating groundwater potential zones in a hard-rock terrain using geospatial tools. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 213–223. doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.745644
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sveinsson, O., et al., 2003. Modeling the dynamics of long term variability of hydroclimatic processes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 489–505. doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0489:MTDOLV>2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor, C.J. and Alley, W.M., 2001. Groundwater level monitoring and the importance of long-term water-level data. Denver, Colorado: US Geological Survey, U.S.G.S. Circular 1217.
   Google Scholar
• Taylor, R.G., Koussis, A.D., and Tindimugaya, C., 2009. Groundwater and climate in Africa—a review. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (4), 655–664. doi:10.1623/hysj.54.4.655
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thangarajan, M., ed., 2007. Groundwater resource evaluation, augmentation, contamination, restoration, modeling and management. New Delhi: Capital Publishing Company.
   Google Scholar
• Tobolski, K., 1998. Peatlands and marsh ecosystems. In: K. Dobrowolski and K. Lewandowski, eds. The strategy of wetland protection in Poland. Dziekanów Leśny: Institute of Ecology PAS Publishing Office, 154–163.
   Google Scholar
• Tomalski, P., 2007. The extreme of groundwater levels in central Poland in the period 1951-2000. Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Physica, 8, 131–150, (In Polish).
   Google Scholar
• Toth, E., 2013. Catchment classification based on characterisation of streamflow and precipitation time-series. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1149–1159. doi:10.5194/hess-17-1149-2013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Toth, J., 2009. Gravitational system of groundwater flow. Theory evaluation, utilization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Van Camp, M., et al., 2010. Effects of multi-annual climate variability on the hydrodynamic evolution (1833 to present) in a shallow aquifer system in northern Belgium. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (5), 763–779. doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.488075
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Varouchakis, E.A., Hristopulos, D.T., and Karatzas, G.P., 2012. Improving kriging of groundwater level data using nonlinear normalizing transformations—a field application. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1404–1419. doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.717174
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Von Asmuth, J.R. and Knotters, M., 2004. Characterising groundwater dynamics based on a system identification approach. Journal of Hydrology, 296, 118–134. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Von Asmuth, J.R. and Maas, C., 2001. The method of impulse response moments: a new method integrating time series, groundwater and eco-hydrological modeling. In: J.C. Geherls, et al., eds. Impact of human activity on groundwater dynamics. Wallingford: IAHS Publication, 51–58.
   Google Scholar
• Von Storch, H., 1995. Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: H. Von Storch and A. Navarra, eds Analysis of Climate Variability: applications of Statistical Techniques. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 11–26.
   Google Scholar
• Winter, T.C., et al., 1998. Ground water and surface water a single resource. Denver Colorado: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1139.
   Google Scholar
• Wu, J., Zou, R., and Yu, S.L., 2006. Uncertainty analysis for coupled watershed and water quality modeling systems. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132 (5), 351–361. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:5(351)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yihdego, Y. and Webb, J.A., 2010. Characterizing groundwater dynamics using transfer function-noise and auto-regressive modeling in Western Victoria, Australia. In: E.D. Schmitter and N. Mastorakis, eds. Proceedings of the 5th IASME/WSAS International Conference on water resources, hydraulics & hydrology, Proceedings of the 4th IASME/WSAS Int Conf on geology and seismology – water and geoscience, 23–25 February, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, 96–101.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang, G.P. and Savenije, H.H.G., 2005. Rainfall–runoff modelling in a catchment with a complex groundwater flow system: application of the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9, 243–261. doi:10.5194/hess-9-243-2005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Żmudzka, E., 2002. On the variability of precipitation in lowland Poland in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Messages, 25 (4), 23–38. (In Polish).
   Google Scholar