851
Views
7
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Mapping abrupt streamflow shift in an abrupt climate shift through multiple change point methodologies: Brazil case study

ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 2783-2796 | Received 25 Jun 2020, Accepted 02 Sep 2020, Published online: 18 Nov 2020

References

  • Ana – National Water Agency, 2013. Análise de estacionaridade de séries hidrológicas na bacia do rio São Francisco e usos consuntivos a montante da UHE Sobradinho. Technical Note nº 006/2013/SPR. Brasília: National Water Agency.
  • Andreoli, R.V. and Kayano, M.T., 2007. A importância relativa do atlântico tropical sul e pacífico leste na variabilidade de precipitação do Nordeste do Brasil. Rev. Bras. 22 (1), 63–74.
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P., 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18 (1), 1–22. doi:10.1002/jae.659
  • Barros, V., et al., 2000. Influence of the South Atlantic convergence zone and South Atlantic Sea surface temperature on interannual summer rainfall variability in Southeastern South America. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 67 (3–4), 123–133. doi:10.1007/s007040070002
  • Block, P.J., et al., 2009. A streamflow forecasting framework using multiple climate and hydrological models. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45 (4), 828–843. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00327.x
  • Bradley, A.A., Habib, M., and Schwartz, S.S., 2015. Climate index weighting of ensemble streamflow forecasts using a simple Bayesian approach. Water Resources Research, 51 (9), 7382–7400. doi:10.1002/2014WR016811
  • Castro, B.C.A., Filho, F.D.A.D.S., and Silveira, C.D.S., 2013. Análise de Tendências e Padrões de Variação das Séries Históricas de Vazões do Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Revista Brasileira De Recursos Hídricos, 18 (4), 19–34.
  • Cavalcanti, I.F.D.A., et al., 2009. Tempo e Clima no Brasil.pdf. In: I.F.D.A. Cavalcanti, N.J. Ferreira, M.G.A.J. da Silva and M.A.F. da Silva Dias, eds. São Paulo: Oficina de textos.
  • Chiessi, C.M., et al., 2009. Possible impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on the South American summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (21), 1–5. doi:10.1029/2009GL039914
  • Dorcas Wambui, G., Waititu, G.A., and Wanjoya, A., 2015. The power of the Pruned Exact Linear Time(PELT) test in multiple changepoint detection. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4 (6), 581. doi:10.11648/j.ajtas.20150406.30
  • Enfield, D.B., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M., and Trimble, P.J., 2001. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S.A. Atlantic, 28 (10), 2077–2080. doi:10.1029/2000GL012745
  • Erdman, C. and Emerson, J.W., 2007. bcp: an R package for performing a Bayesian analysis of change point problems. Journal of Statistical Software, 23 (3), 1–13. doi:10.18637/jss.v023.i03
  • Ferreira, N.J., Sanches, M., and Silva Dias, M.A.F. 2004. Composição da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul em Períodos de El Niño e La Niña. Rev. Bras. Meteorol. 19 (1), 89–98.
  • Fritier, N., et al., 2012. Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France). Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 344 (8), 396–405. Academie des sciences. doi:10.1016/j.crte.2012.07.004
  • Haynes, K., Eckley, I.A., and Fearnhead, P. 2017. Computationally efficient changepoint detection for a range of penalties. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 26 (1), 134–143. Taylor & Francis. doi:10.1080/10618600.2015.1116445
  • Hinkley, D.V. 1970. Inference about the change-point in a sequence of random variables. Biometrika 57 (1), 1 doi:10.2307/2334932
  • Ivancic, T.J., and Shaw, S.B. 2017. Identifying spatial clustering across the contiguous U.S between 1945 and 2009. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44 (5), 2445–2453. doi:10.1002/2016GL072444
  • Jiménez-Ruano, A., Rodrigues Mimbrero, M., and La Riva Fernández, J.D., 2017. Exploring spatial–temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17 (10), 1697–1711. doi:10.5194/nhess-17-1697-2017
  • Kayano, M.T., et al., 2016. El Niño e La Niña dos últimos 30 anos : diferentes tipos. Revista Climanalise (Edição Comemorativa de 30 anos do Climanálise), 7–12.
  • Kayano, M.T., Andreoli, R.V., and Souza, R.A.F.D., 2019. El Niño–Southern Oscillation related teleconnections over South America under distinct Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation backgrounds: la Niña. International Journal of Climatology, 39 (3), 1359–1372. doi:10.1002/joc.5886
  • Kayano, M.T. and Capistrano, V.B., 2014. How the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) modifies the ENSO influence on the South American rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 34 (1), 162–178. doi:10.1002/joc.3674
  • Keller, M., et al., 2009. Amazonia and global change. (Michael Keller, M. Bustamante, J. Gash & P. Silva Dias, Eds.). Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 186. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union. doi:10.1029/GM186
  • Killick, R. and Eckley, I., 2013. Changepoint: an R package for changepoint analysis. Lancaster University, 58 (3), 1–15. doi:10.1359/JBMR.0301229
  • Killick, R., Fearnhead, P., and Eckley, I.A., 2012. Optimal detection of changepoints with a linear computational cost. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 107 (500), 1590–1598. doi:10.1080/01621459.2012.737745
  • Lehner, F., et al., 2017. Mitigating the impacts of climate nonstationarity on seasonal streamflow predictability in the U.S. Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (24), 12,208–12,217. doi:10.1002/2017GL076043
  • Lima, C.H.R. and Lall, U., 2010a. Climate informed monthly streamflow forecasts for the Brazilian hydropower network using a periodic ridge regression model. Journal of Hydrology, 380 (3–4), 438–449. Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.016
  • Lima, C.H.R. and Lall, U., 2010b. Climate informed long term seasonal forecasts of hydroenergy inflow for the Brazilian hydropower system. Journal of Hydrology, 381 (1–2), 65–75. Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.026
  • Mantua, N.J., et al., 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on Salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78 (6), 1069–1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2
  • Ministry of Mines and Energy. 2019. Brazilian Energy Balance 2019 - Year 2018. Rio de Janeiro: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, 292. Available from: https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-377/topico-494/BEN%202019%20Completo%20WEB.pdf [Acessed 06 Nov 2020].
  • Muza, M.N., et al., 2009. Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme dry and wet events over southeastern South America and the subtropical Atlantic during austral summer. Journal of Climate, 22 (7), 1682–1699. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2257.1
  • ONS, 2017. Streamflow Series Update – 1931–2016 period (in Portuguese). Technical Report. Rio de Janeiro: National Electrical System Operator.
  • Pohlert, T. 2020. Trend: non-parametric trend tests and change-point detection. R package version 1.1.2. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend
  • Qin, M., et al., 2018. The influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on North Central China precipitation during boreal autumn. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (January), e821–e831. doi:10.1002/joc.5410
  • Rayner, N.A., Parker, D.E., Horton, E.B., Folland, C.K., Alexander, L.V., Rowell, D.P., Kent, E.C., et al. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108 (14). doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
  • Rocha, R.V., et al., 2019. Análise da Relação entre a Precipitação Média do Reservatório Orós, Brasil - Ceará, e os Índices PDO e AMO Através da Análise de Changepoints e Transformada de Ondeletas Analysis of the Relationship Between the Average Rainfall of Orós Reservoir. Brazi, 139–149. doi:10.1590/0102-77863340034
  • Roesch, A., and Schmidbauer, H. 2018. Wavelet comp: computational wavelet analysis. R package version 1. 1. Available from: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=WaveletComp
  • Ryberg, K.R., Hodgkins, G.A., and Dudley, R.W., 2019. Change points in annual peak streamflows: method comparisons and historical change points in the United States. Journal of Hydrology (August), 124307. Elsevier. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124307
  • Sankarasubramanian, A., et al., 2009. Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: short-term water contracts in a risk management framework. Water Resources Research, 45 (11), 1–18. doi:10.1029/2009WR007821
  • Sivakumar, B., 2017. Chaos in hydrology: bridging determinism stochasticity. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2552-4
  • Souza Filho, F.A. and Lall, U., 2003. Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: applications of a multivariate, semiparametric algorithm. Water Resources Research, 39 (11), n/a-n/a. doi:10.1029/2002WR001373
  • Tamaddun, K., Kalra, A., and Ahmad, S., 2016. Identification of streamflow changes across the continental United States using variable record lengths. Hydrology, 3 (2), 24. doi:10.3390/hydrology3020024
  • Tamaddun, K.A., et al., 2017b. Multi-scale correlation between the Western U.S. snow water equivalent and ENSO/PDO using wavelet analyses. Water Resources Management, 31 (9), 2745–2759. doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1659-9
  • Tamaddun, K.A., Kalra, A., and Ahmad, S., 2017a. Wavelet analyses of western us streamflow with ENSO and PDO. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 8 (1), 26–39. doi:10.2166/wcc.2016.162
  • Tamaddun, K.A., Kalra, A., and Ahmad, S., 2019. Spatiotemporal variation in the continental US streamflow in association with large-scale climate signals across multiple spectral bands. Water Resources Management, 33 (6), 1947–1968. doi:10.1007/s11269-019-02217-8
  • Tang, C., et al., 2014. Is the PDO or AMO the climate driver of soil moisture in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho? Global and Planetary Change, 120, 16–23. Elsevier B.V. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.05.008
  • Tongal, H., 2019. Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and extreme indices in the Antalya Basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138 (3–4), 1735–1754. doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02927-4
  • Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P., 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79 (1), 61–78. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:apgtwa>2.0.CO;2
  • Torrence, C. and Webster, P.J., 1999. Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. Journal of Climate, 12 (8 PART 2), 2679–2690. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:icitem>2.0.CO;2
  • Wang, Y., Zhang, T., Chen, X., Li, J. and Feng, P. 2018. Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 131 (3–4), 1369–1385. doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2059-z
  • Yang, T., et al., 2017. Developing reservoir monthly inflow forecasts using artificial intelligence and climate phenomenon information. Water Resources Research, 53 (4), 2786–2812. doi:10.1002/2017WR020482
  • Zeileis, A., et al., 2002. strucchange: an R package for testing for structural change. Journal of Statistical Software, 7 (2), 1–38. doi:10.18637/jss.v007.i02
  • Zeileis, A., et al., 2003. Testing and dating of structural changes in practice. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 44 (1–2), 109–123. doi:10.1016/S0167-9473(03)00030-6
  • Zhu, Y., Jiang, J., Huang, C., Chen, Y.D. and Zhang, Q. 2019. Applications of multiscale change point detections to monthly stream flow and rainfall in Xijiang River in southern China, part I: correlation and variance. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 136 (1–2), 237–248. doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2480-y

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.