Publication Cover
Social Epistemology
A Journal of Knowledge, Culture and Policy
Volume 9, 1995 - Issue 1: Simulating Science
98
Views
40
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Symposium on the possibility of science funding as an ‘idea futures’ market

Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus

Pages 3-33 | Published online: 19 Jun 2008

References

  • American Psychiatric Association . 1987 . Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, , 3rd edn , Washington, DC : American Psychiatric Association .
  • Bernal , J. 1989 . ‘After twenty‐five years’ . Science and Public Policy , 16 (3) : 143 – 151 .
  • Brenner , R. and Brenner , G. 1990 . Gambling and Speculation, , New York : Cambridge University Press .
  • Brunner , J. 1975 . The Shockwave Rider, , New York : Harper & Row .
  • Byrne , G. 1989 . ‘A modest proposal’ . Science , 244 : 290
  • Chubin , D. and Hackett , E. 1990 . Peerless Science, , NY : SUNY Press .
  • Cialdini , R. 1988 . Influence, Sdence and Practice, , Boston : Scott, Foresman and Co. .
  • Cicchetti , D. 1991 . ‘The reliability of peer review for manuscript and grant submissions: a cross‐disciplinary investigation’ . Behavioral and Brain Sciences , 14 (1) : 119 – 135 .
  • Cole , S. and Cole , J. 1987 . ‘Testing the Ortega Hypothesis: milestone or millstone?’ . Scientometrics, , 12 (5–6) : 345 – 353 .
  • Debus , A. 1970 . Science and Education in the Seventeenth Century, , London : MacDonald .
  • Drexler , K. E. 1986 . Engines of Creation, , New York : Doubleday .
  • Dowie , J. “Gambling in Education and Education in Gambling” . Proc. Fifth Intl. Conf. on Gambling and Risk Taking, . Edited by: Eadington , William . pp. 23 – 29 .
  • Economides , N. and Slow , A. 1988 . ‘The division of markets is limited by the extent of liquidity (spatial competition with externalities)’ . American Economic Review, , 78 March : 108 – 121 .
  • Eisenberg , E. and Gale , D. 1959 . ‘Consensus of subjective probabilities. The pari‐mutuel method’ . Annals of Mathematics and Statistics , 30 : 165 – 168 .
  • Evans , D. 1991 . ‘Atom priests’ . San Jose Mercury News, , 28 October : 7B
  • Fairley , W. , Meyer , M. and Chernick , P. ‘Insurance market assessment of technological risk’ . Proceedings of the Society for Risk Analysis International Workshop on Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making, . September 30 . pp. 89 – 102 .
  • Feyerabend , P. 1975 . ‘How to defend society against science’ . Radical Philosophy, , 2 (Summer) : 4 – 8 .
  • Forsythe , R. , Nelson , F. , Neumann , G. and Wright , J. 1991 . “ ‘The explanation and prediction of Presidential elections: a market alternative to polls’ ” . In Laboratory Research in Political Economy, , Edited by: Palfrey , T. 69 – 112 . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press .
  • Fuller , S. 1988 . Social Epistemology , Bloomington : Indiana Univ. Press .
  • Galileo . 1967 . Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, , 2nd edn , Edited by: Drake , Stillman . Berkeley : University of California Press .
  • Garwin , R. 1989 . ‘Consensus on cold fusion still elusive’ . Nature, , 338 20 April
  • Geis , G. 1974 . One Eyed Justice, , New York : Drake .
  • Genest , C. and Zidek , J. 1986 . ‘Combining probability distributions: a critique and annotated bibliography’ . Statistical Science , 1 (1) : 114 – 148 .
  • Ghiselin , M. T. 1989 . Intellectual Compromise: The Bottom Line, , New York : Paragon House .
  • Gilmore , J. B. 1991 . ‘On forecasting validity and finessing reliability’ . Behavioral and Brain Sciences , 14 (1) : 148 – 149 .
  • Grofman , B. and Owen , G. , eds. Information pooling and group decision making . Proceedings of the Second University of California Irvine Conference on Political Economy, . London : JAI Press .
  • Hakansson , N. , Beja , A. and Kale , J. 1985 . ‘On the feasibility of automated market making by a programmed specialist’ . Journal of Finance, , March
  • Hall , S. 1989 . ‘Professor Thorne's time machine’ . California, , October : 68 – 77 .
  • Hanson , R. 1988 . ‘Toward Hypertext publishing, issues and choices in database design’ . ACM SIGIR Forum, , 22 (12)
  • Hanson , R. 1990 . “Could Gambling Save Science? Encouraging an Honest Consensus” . Proc. Eighth Intl. Conf on Risk and Gambling, . July 1990 , London.
  • Heilbron , J. 1982 . Elements of Early Modern Physics, , Berkeley : University of California Press .
  • Henrion , M. and Fischhoff , B. 1986 . ‘Assessing uncertainty in physical constants’ . American Journal of Physics , 54 (9) : 791 – 798 .
  • Hirshleifer , J. 1971 . ‘The private and social value of information and the reward to inventive activity’ . American Economics Review , 61 (4) : 561 – 574 .
  • Hofstee , W. 1984 . ‘Methodological decision rules as research policies: a betting reconstruction of empirical research’ . Acta Psychological , 56 : 93 – 109 .
  • Hofstee , W. and Nevels , K. 1981 . ‘Do not take the betting model literally’ . Kwantitatieve Methoden , 3 : 70 – 72 .
  • Jacobs , J. 1991 . ‘Fremont, film capital’ . San Jose Mercury News West Magazine, , 1 September : 3
  • Jaffray , J. 1989 . ‘Coherent bets under partially resolving uncertainty and belief functions’ . Theory and Decision , 26 : 99 – 105 .
  • Kadane , J. and Winkler , R. 1988 . ‘Separating probability elicitation from utilities’ . Journal of the American Statistical Association, , 83 : 402 357 – 363 .
  • Kahneman , D. and Tversky , A. , eds. 1982 . Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, , New York : Cambridge University Press .
  • Kantrowitz , A. 1977 . ‘The Science Court Experiment: criticisms and responses’ . Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, , April : 44 – 50 .
  • Kelley , J. 1988 . ‘Compulsive gambling in Britain’ . Journal of Gambling Behavior , 4 (4) : 291
  • Laffont , J. J. 1989 . The Economics of Uncertainty and Information, , Cambridge, Mass : MIT Press .
  • Leamer , E. 1986 . “ ‘Bid‐ask spreads for subjective probabilities’ ” . In Bayesian Inference and Decision Techniques, , Edited by: Goel , P. and Zellner , A. 217 – 232 . North Holland : Elsevier .
  • Lederberg , J. 1989 . ‘Does scientific progress come from projects or people?’ . Current Contents, , 48 27 November : 4 – 12 .
  • Lewis , H. W. 1989 . ‘Fusion isn't just around the corner’ . San Jose Mercury News, , 7 April Opinion page
  • Linstone , L. and Turoff , M. , eds. 1975 . The Delphi Method, , London : Addison‐Wesley .
  • Malkiel , B. 1989 . ‘Is the Stock Market efficient?’ . Science, , 243 10 March : 1313 – 1318 .
  • Mann , C. 1990 . ‘Meta‐analysis in the breech’ . Science , 249 3 August : 476 – 480 .
  • Marshall , E. 1990 . ‘Science beyond the pale’ . Science , 249 6 July : 14 – 16 .
  • Mayer , M. 1988 . Markets, , NY : Norton & Co. .
  • Mueller , D. 1979 . Public Choice, , Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Myers , D. 1983 . Social Psychology, , 2nd edn , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
  • Nau , R. and McCardle , K. 1991 . ‘Arbitrage, rationality, and equilibrium’ . Theory and Decision , 31 : 199 – 240 .
  • 1990 . ‘Feedback column’ . New Scientist , 14 July see also 10 February and 28 July
  • Pavitt , K. 1991 . ‘What makes basic research economically useful?’ . Research Policy, , 20 : 109 – 119 .
  • Pearl , J. 1988 . Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, , San Mateo : Morgan Kaufmann .
  • Polinsky , M. 1983 . An Introduction to Law and Economics, , Boston : Little Brown & Co. .
  • Pool , R. 1989 . ‘Bulls outpace bears‐for now!’ . Science , 244 28 April : 421
  • Popper , K. 1985 . Popper Selections, , Edited by: Miller , D. Princeton : Princeton University Press .
  • Power , W. 1989 . “Hottest Commodity In Wall Street Pits? Georgetown Hoyas” . Wall Street Journal, , March 24 : A1
  • Price , D. J. de Solla . 1963 . Little Science, Big Science, and Beyond, , New York : Columbia University Press .
  • Redner , H. 1987 . ‘Pathologies of science’ . Social Epistemology , 1 (3) : 215 – 247 .
  • Rescher , N. 1978 . Scientific Progress, , London : Camelot Press .
  • Rose , I. N. 1986 . Gambling and the Law, , Hollywood : Gambling Times .
  • Roy , R. 1985 . ‘Funding science: the Real defects of peer review and an alternative to it’ . Science, Technology and Human Values, , 10 (3) : 73 – 81 .
  • Seidenfeld , T. 1990 . “ ‘Two perspectives on consensus for (Bayesian) inference and decisions’ ” . In Knowledge Representation and Defeasible Reasoning, , Edited by: Kyburg , H. , Loui , R. and Carlson , G. 267 – 286 . Boston : Kluwer .
  • Shapin , S. and Schaffer , S. 1985 . Leviathan and the Air‐Pump, , Princeton : Princeton University Press .
  • Sharpe , G. July 1990 . Telephone conversations , July , 19 Valentine Place, London : William Hill Organization Ltd . SE1 8QH
  • Sharpe , W. 1985 . Investments, , 3rd edn , New Jersey : Prentice Hall .
  • Simon , J. 25 February 1991 . Here's An Offer You Ought to Refuse, 25 February , Chevy Chase, MD open letter available from author, 110 Primrose St. 20815.
  • Smith , P. 1990 . Killing the Spirit, , New York : Viking/Penguin .
  • Smith , V. 1986 . ‘Experimental methods in the political economy of exchange’ . Science, , 234 10 October : 167 – 173 .
  • Sobey , P. and Maddess , T. 1991 . ‘You can bet on it’ . New Scientist, , August
  • Stoll , H. 1989 . ‘Inferring the components of the bid‐ask spread: theory and empirical tests’ . Journal of Finance , 44 (1) : 115 – 134 .
  • Sykes , C. 1988 . ProfScam, , New York : St. Martin's Press .
  • 1985 . ‘Consensus’ . Synthese, , 62 (1)
  • Thayer , H. 1980 . “ ‘Peirce on truth’ ” . In Two Centuries of Philosophy in America, , Edited by: Caws , P. Totowa : Towman & Littlefield .
  • Tierney , J. 1991 . ‘A bet on planet Earth’ . Reader's Digest, , March : 61 – 64 .
  • Trumpbour , J. 1989 . How Harvard Rules, , Boston : South End Press .
  • Tsao , J. 1989 . ‘Consumer preferences and funding priorities in scientific research’ . Science and Public Policy , 16 (5) : 294 – 298 .
  • Tullock , G. 1966 . The Organization of Inquiry, , London : Duke University Press .
  • Turner , S. 1990 . “Forms of Patronage” . In Theories of Science in Society, , Edited by: Cozzens , S. and Gieryn , T. 185 – 21 . Indiana U. Press .
  • Verne , J. 1872 . Around the World in Eighty Days, , New Jersey : Watermill Press .
  • Wade , N. 1980 . ‘Why government should not fund science’ . Science , 210 (3) : 33
  • Wheeler , S. 1990 . “Betting on Futures in Financial Markets: A Variation on Old Institutions” . Proc. Eighth Intl. Conf. on Risk and Gambling, . July 1990 , London.
  • 1989 . ‘Fusion fuss is turning scientists into gamblers’ . Wall Street Journal, , 18 April
  • White , F. 1946 . Famous Utopias of the Renaissance, , Putney, Vermont : Hendricks House .
  • Zeckhauser , R. and Viscusi , W. 1990 . ‘Risk within reason’ . Science , 248 : 559 – 564 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.