The Impact of Different Performance Measures on Model Selection for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon

REFERENCES

• Adkison , M. D. 2009 . Drawbacks of complex models in frequentist and Bayesian approaches to natural-resource management . Ecological Applications , 19 : 198 – 205 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brodziak , J. and Legault , C. M. 2005 . Model averaging to estimate rebuilding targets for overfished stocks . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 62 : 544 – 562 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buhle , E. R. , Holsman , K. K. , Scheuerell , M. D. and Albaugh , A. 2009 . Using an unplanned experiment to evaluate the effects of hatcheries and environmental variation on threatened populations of wild salmon . Biological Conservation , 142 : 2449 – 2455 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burnham , K. P. and Anderson , D. R. 2002 . Model selection and multimodel inference , 2nd edition , New York : Springer-Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Burnham , K. P. and Anderson , D. R. 2004 . Multimodel inference: understanding AIC and BIC in model selection . Sociological Methods and Research , 33 : 261 – 304 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke , S. J. , Hinch , S. G. , Farrell , A. P. , Lapointe , M. , Jones , S. R. M. , Macdonald , J. S. , Patterson , D. A. , Healey , M. C. and Van Der Kraak , G. 2004 . Abnormal migration timing and high en route mortality of sockeye salmon in the Fraser River, British Columbia . Fisheries , 29 ( 2 ) : 22 – 33 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de la Mare , W K. 1998 . Tidier fisheries management requires a new MOP (management-oriented paradigm) . Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries , 8 : 349 – 356 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Duan , Q. Y. , Ajami , N. K. , Gao , X. G. and Sorooshian , S. 2007 . Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging . Advances in Water Resources , 30 : 1371 – 1386 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eckel , F. A. and Mass , C. F. 2005 . Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting . Weather and Forecasting , 20 : 328 – 350 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ferrari , M. R. , Miller , J. R. and Russell , G. L. 2007 . Modeling changes in summer temperature of the Fraser River during the next century . Journal of Hydrology , 342 : 336 – 346 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gable , J. and Cox-Rogers , S. 1993 . Stock identification of Fraser River sockeye salmon: methodology and management application , Vancouver : Pacific Salmon Commission . Technical Report 5
   Google Scholar
• Gelman , A. and Hill , J. 2007 . Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models , Cambridge, , UK : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gutreuter , S. , Vallazza , J. M. and Knights , B. C. 2006 . Persistent disturbance by commercial navigation alters the relative abundance of channel-dwelling fishes in a large river . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 63 : 2418 – 2433 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haeseker , S. L. , Peterman , R. A. and Su , Z. M. 2008 . Retrospective evaluation of preseason forecasting models for sockeye and chum salmon . North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 28 : 12 – 29 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haeseker , S. L. , Peterman , R. M. , Su , Z. M. and Wood , C. C. 2005 . Retrospective evaluation of preseason forecasting models for pink salmon . North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 25 : 897 – 918 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hague , M. J. and Patterson , D. A. 2007 . Quantifying the sensitivity of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management adjustment models to uncertainties in run timing, run shape and run profile . Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , : 2776
   Google Scholar
• Hanson , P. J. , Vaughan , D. S. and Narayan , S. 2006 . Forecasting annual harvests of Atlantic and Gulf menhaden . North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 26 : 753 – 764 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hilborn , R. 2007 . Defining success in fisheries and conflicts in objectives . Marine Policy , 31 : 153 – 158 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holt , C. A. and Peterman , R. M. 2004 . Long-term trends in age-specific recruitment of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in a changing environment . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 61 : 2455 – 2470 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holt , C. A. and Peterman , R. M. 2006 . Missing the target: uncertainties in achieving management goals in fisheries on Fraser River, British Columbia, sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 63 : 2722 – 2733 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holt , C. A. and Peterman , R. M. 2008 . Uncertainties in population dynamics and outcomes of regulations in sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) fisheries: implications for management . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 65 : 1459 – 1474 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keefer , M. L. , Peery , C. A. and Caudill , C. C. 2008 . Migration timing of Columbia River spring Chinook salmon: effects of temperature, river discharge, and the ocean environment . Transactions of the American Fisheries Society , 137 : 1120 – 1133 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keeney , R. L. 1977 . A utility function for examining policy affecting salmon on the Skeena River . Journal of Fisheries Research Board of Canada , 34 : 49 – 63 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Link , W. A. and Barker , R. J. 2006 . Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference . Ecology (Washington, D.C.) , 87 : 2626 – 2635 .
   Google Scholar
• Macdonald , J. S. , Patterson , D. A. , Hague , M. J. and Guthrie , I. C. 2010 . Modeling the influence of environmental factors on spawning migration mortality for sockeye salmon fisheries management in the Fraser River, British Columbia . Transactions of the American Fisheries Society , 139 : 768 – 782 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McGowan , C. P. and Ryan , M. R. 2009 . A quantitative framework to evaluate incidental take and endangered species population viability . Biological Conservation , 142 : 3128 – 3136 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morrison , J. , Quick , M. C. and Foreman , M. G. G. 2002 . Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections . Journal of Hydrology , 263 : 230 – 244 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Patterson , D. A. , Macdonald , J. S. , Skibo , K. M. , Barnes , D. P. , Guthrie , I. and Hills , J. 2007a . Reconstructing the summer thermal history for the lower Fraser River, 1941 to 2006, and implications for adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) spawning migration . Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 2724
   Google Scholar
• Patterson , D. A. , Skibo , K. M. , Barnes , D. P. , Hills , J. A. and Macdonald , J. S. 2007b . The influence of water temperature on time to surface for adult sockeye salmon carcasses and the limitations in estimating salmon carcasses in the Fraser River, British Columbia . North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 27 : 878 – 884 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peterman , R. M. , Marmorek , D. , Beckman , B. , Bradford , M. , Mantua , N. , Riddell , B. E. , Scheuerell , M. , Staley , M. , Wieckowski , K. , Winton , J. R. and Wood , C. C. 2010 . Synthesis of evidence from a workshop on the decline of Fraser River sockeye , Vancouver : Report to the Pacific Salmon Commission . Available: www.psc.org. (August 2010)
   Google Scholar
• Peters , C. N. , Marmorek , D. R. and Deriso , R. B. 2001 . Application of decision analysis to evaluate recovery actions for threatened Snake River fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 58 : 2447 – 2458 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• R Development Core Team . 2009 . R: a language and environment for statistical computing , Vienna : R Foundation for Statistical Computing . Available: www.R-project.org. (July 2010)
   Google Scholar
• Raftery , A. E. and Zheng , Y. Y. 2003 . Discussion: performance of Bayesian model averaging . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 98 : 931 – 938 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schubert , N. D. 2007 . Estimating the 1995 Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) escapement . Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 2737
   Google Scholar
• Shao , J. 1993 . Linear model selection by cross-validation . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 88 : 486 – 494 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shao , J. and Dongsheng , T. 1995 . The jackknife and bootstrap , New York : Springer-Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Willmott , C. J. 1982 . Some comments on the evaluation of model performance . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 63 : 1309 – 1313 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Willmott , C. J. and Matsuura , K. 2005 . Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance . Climate Research , 30 : 79 – 82 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wood , C. C. , Rutherford , D. T. , Peacock , D. , Cox-Rogers , S. and Jantz , L. 1997 . Assessment of recruitment forecasting methods for major sockeye and pink salmon stocks in northern British Columbia , Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2187 .
   Google Scholar
• Xie , L. S. and Hsieh , W. W. 1989 . Predicting the return migration routes of the Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) . Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , 46 : 1287 – 1292 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xie , Y. B. 2000 . A range-dependent echo-association algorithm and its application in split-beam sonar tracking of migratory salmon in the Fraser River watershed . IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering , 25 : 387 – 398 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zar , J. H. 2006 . Biostatistical analysis , 3rd edition , Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey : Prentice-Hall .
   Google Scholar