Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040

References

• Steffen A, Holstiege J, Goffrier B, Bätzing J. Epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany – an analysis based on nationwide contract medical billing data. Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance in Germany (ZI). Berlin; 2017. Supply Atlas Report No. 17/08. doi:10.20364/VA-17.08.
   Google Scholar
• Finckh A, Gilbert B, Hodkinson B, Bae SC, Thomas R, Deane KD, et al. Global epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis. Nat Rev Rheumatol 2022;18:591–602.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Myasoedova E, Davis J, Matteson EL, Crowson CS. Is the epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis changing? Results from a population-based incidence study, 1985–2014. Ann Rheum Dis 2020;79:440–4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Charukevič G, Miltinienė D, Dadonienė J. Mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a retrospective cohort study and systematic review. Med Sci Forum 2021;6:5.
   Google Scholar
• van den Hoek J, Boshuizen HC, Roorda LD, Tijhuis GJ, Nurmohamed MT, van den Bos GA, et al. Mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a 15-year prospective cohort study. Rheumatol Int 2017;37:487–93.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smolen JS, Landewé RBM, Bergstra SA, Kerschbaumer A, Sepriano A, Aletaha D, et al. EULAR recommendations for the management of rheumatoid arthritis with synthetic and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: 2022 update. Ann Rheum Dis 2023;82:3–18.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fraenkel L, Bathon JM, England BR, St Clair EW, Arayssi T, Carandang K, et al. American College of Rheumatology guideline for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. Arthritis Rheumatol 2021;73:1108–23.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fiehn C, Holle J, Iking-Konert C, Leipe J, Weseloh C, Frerix M, et al. S2e-Leitlinie: Therapie der Rheumatoiden Arthritis mit Krankheitsmodifizierenden Medikamenten (in German). Z Rheumatol 2018;77:35–53.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Choi IA, Lee JS, Song YW, Lee EY. Mortality, disability, and healthcare expenditure of patients with seropositive rheumatoid arthritis in Korea: a nationwide population-based study. PLoS One. 2019;14:e0210471.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hresko A, Lin TC, Solomon DH. Medical care costs associated with rheumatoid arthritis in the US: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 2018;70:1431–8.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Curtis JR, Kwoh CK, Rizzoli AJ, Welz JA. A multistakeholder approach to improving quality in rheumatoid arthritis: proceedings from the rheumatoid arthritis quality expert medical panel. Am Health Drug Benefits 2014;7:S51–61.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Barber C, Lacaille D, Hall M, Bohm V, Li LC, Barnabe C, et al. Strategies for developing and implementing a rheumatoid arthritis healthcare quality framework: a thematic analysis of perspectives from arthritis stakeholders. BMJ Open 2021;11:e043759
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2017. Lancet 2018;392:1789–858.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elfving P, Kononoff A, Huhtakangas J, Kautiainen H, Savolainen E, Arstila L, et al. Incidence of seropositive rheumatoid arthritis in population-based studies in Northern Savo, Finland, during 1980–2020. Rheumatol Int 2023;43:659–66.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Soussi BG, Cordtz RL, Kristensen S, Bork CS, Christensen JH, Schmidt EB, et al. Incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Denmark from 1998 to 2018: a nationwide register-based study. Scand J Rheumatol 2022;51:481–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Widdifield J, Paterson JM, Bernatsky S, Tu K, Tomlinson G, Kuriya B, et al. The epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis in Ontario, Canada. Arthritis Rheumatol 2014;66:786–93.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kienitz C, Grellmann C, Hapfelmeier J. Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany: analysis of longitudinal data of statutory health insurance (in German). Gesundheitswesen 2021;83:367–73.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance. [ accessed 2023 Nov 7]. Available from: https://www.zi.de/.
   Google Scholar
• Association of Substitute Funds (Verband der Ersatzkassen). Healthcare data: insured. (In German). [accessed 2024 Jan 5]. Available from: https://www.vdek.com/presse/daten/b_versicherte.html.
   Google Scholar
• Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices. The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision, German modification. ICD-10-GM. [ accessed 2023 Nov 7]. Available from: https://www.bfarm.de/EN/Code-systems/Classifications/ICD/ICD-10-GM/_node.html#:~:text=The%20International%20Statistical%20Classification%20Of,outpatient%20medical%20care%20in%20Germany.
   Google Scholar
• Federal Statistical Office of Germany. The 15th coordinated population projection for Germany. [ accessed 2023 Nov 7]. Available from: https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/index.html#!l=en.
   Google Scholar
• Strehler BL, Mildvan AS. General theory of mortality and aging. Science 1960;132:14–21.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang J, Tulka S, Knippschild S, Schneider M, Distler JHW, Baraliakos X, et al. A population-based projection of psoriatic arthritis in Germany until 2050: analysis of national statutory health insurance data of 65 million German population. Rheumatol Int 2023;43:2037–47.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brinks R. Estimation of age-specific excess mortality of men and women with rheumatoid arthritis in Germany. 2023. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2302.11576
   Google Scholar
• Brinks R, Landwehr S. A new relation between prevalence and incidence of a chronic disease. Math Med Biol 2015;32:425–35.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chae KJ, Choi H, Jeong WG, Kim J. The value of the illness-death model for predicting outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. Cancer Res Treat 2022;54:996–1004.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Voeltz D, Tönnies T, Brinks R, Hoyer A. Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes – a comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods. PLoS One. 2022;17:e0264739.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jean S, Hudson M, Gamache P, Bessette L, Fortin PR, Boire G, et al. Temporal trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality for rheumatoid arthritis in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study. Clin Rheumatol 2017;36:2667–71.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minichiello E, Semerano L, Boissier MC. Time trends in the incidence, prevalence, and severity of rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic literature review. Joint Bone Spine 2016;83:625–30.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krause C, Herborn G, Braun J, Rudolf H, Wassenberg S, Rau R, et al. Response to methotrexate predicts long-term mortality of patients with rheumatoid arthritis independent of the degree of response: results of a re-evaluation 30 years after baseline. Clin Exp Rheumatol 2017;35:384–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krause D, Gabriel B, Herborn G, Braun J, Rau R. The positive influence of methotrexate on the mortality of patients with rheumatoid arthritis is partly independent of its effect on disease activity: results of a re-evaluation 18 years after baseline. Clin Exp Rheumatol 2014;32:395–400.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dadoun S, Zeboulon-Ktorza N, Combescure C, Elhai M, Rozenberg S, Gossec L, et al. Mortality in rheumatoid arthritis over the last fifty years: systematic review and meta-analysis. Joint Bone Spine 2013;80:29–33.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Elm E, Altman DG, Egger M, Pocock SJ, Gøtzsche PC, Vandenbroucke JP. STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement: guidelines for reporting observational studies. BMJ 2007;335:806.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Di WT, Vergara F, Bertiller E, Gallardo Mde L, Gandino I, Scolnik M, et al. Incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in a health management organization in Argentina: a 15-year study. J Rheumatol 2016;43:1306–11.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Marshall DA, Pham T, Faris P, Chen G, O’Donnell S, Barber CEH, et al. Determination of rheumatoid arthritis incidence and prevalence in Alberta using administrative health data. ACR Open Rheumatol 2020;2:424–9.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Sugihara T. Treatment strategies for elderly-onset rheumatoid arthritis in the new era. Mod Rheumatol 2022;32:493–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bennett JL, Pratt AG, Dodds R, Sayer AA, Isaacs JD. Rheumatoid sarcopenia: loss of skeletal muscle strength and mass in rheumatoid arthritis. Nat Rev Rheumatol 2023;19:239–51.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hyldgaard C, Bendstrup E, Pedersen AB, Ulrichsen SP, Løkke A, Hilberg O, et al. Increased mortality among patients with rheumatoid arthritis and COPD: a population-based study. Respir Med 2018;140:101–7.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Løgstrup BB, Ellingsen T, Pedersen AB, Darvalics B, Olesen KKW, Bøtker HE, et al. Cardiovascular risk and mortality in rheumatoid arthritis compared with diabetes mellitus and the general population. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2021;60:1400–9.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Kay J, Upchurch KS. ACR/EULAR 2010 rheumatoid arthritis classification criteria. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2012;51:vi5–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ješe R, Perdan-Pirkmajer K, Hočevar A, Rotar Ž, Markez S, Pavič-Nikolič M, et al. The incidence rate and the early management of rheumatoid arthritis in Slovenia. Clin Rheumatol 2019;38:273–8.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xu J, Xiao L, Zhu J, Qin Q, Fang Y, Zhang JA. Methotrexate use reduces mortality risk in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Semin Arthritis Rheum 2022;55:152031.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Myasoedova E, Davis JM, Roger VL, Achenbach SJ, Crowson CS. Improved incidence of cardiovascular disease in patients with incident rheumatoid arthritis in the 2000s: a population-based cohort study. J Rheumatol 2021;48:1379–87.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Raimundo K, Solomon JJ, Olson AL, Kong AM, Cole AL, Fischer A, et al. Rheumatoid arthritis-interstitial lung disease in the United States: prevalence, incidence, and healthcare costs and mortality. J Rheumatol 2019;46:360–9.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hitchon CA, Khan S, Elias B, Lix LM, Peschken CA. Prevalence and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in Canadian First Nations and non-First Nations people: a population-based study. J Clin Rheumatol 2020;26:169–75.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• GBD 2021 Rheumatoid Arthritis Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol 2023;5:e594–e610.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Nair B, Taylor-Gjevre R, Wu L, Jin S, Quail JM. Incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Saskatchewan, Canada: 2001–2014. BMC Rheumatol 2019;3:28.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Scott IC, Whittle R, Bailey J, Twohig H, Hider SL, Mallen CD, et al. Rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and axial spondyloarthritis epidemiology in England from 2004 to 2020: an observational study using primary care electronic health record data. Lancet Reg Health Eur 2022;23:100519.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Safiri S, Kolahi AA, Hoy D, Smith E, Bettampadi D, Mansournia MA, et al. Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis 1990–2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of disease study 2017. Ann Rheum Dis 2019;78:1463–71.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deike M, Wang J, Brinks R, Meller S, Ocker L, Bechara FG, et al. Population-based incidence of psoriasis vulgaris in Germany: analysis of national statutory insurance data from 65 million population. Arch Dermatol Res 2024;316:65.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kerola AM, Rollefstad S, Kazemi A, Wibetoe G, Sexton J, Mars N, et al. Psoriatic arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis in Norway: nationwide prevalence and use of biologic agents. Scand J Rheumatol 2023;52:42–50.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Romão VC, Fonseca JE. Etiology and risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis: a state-of-the-art review. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021;8:689698.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pedersen M, Jacobsen S, Klarlund M, Pedersen BV, Wiik A, Wohlfahrt J, et al. Environmental risk factors differ between rheumatoid arthritis with and without auto-antibodies against cyclic citrullinated peptides. Arthritis Res Ther 2006;8:R133
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mucke J, Krusche M, Burmester GR. A broad look into the future of rheumatoid arthritis. Ther Adv Musculoskelet Dis 2022;14:1759720x221076211.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar