An economic risk analysis of fertiliser microdosing and rainwater harvesting in a semi-arid farming system in Tanzania

References

• Akroush, S. and Dhehibi, B. 2015. Predicted willingness of farmers to adopt water harvesting technologies: A case study from the Jordanian Badia (Jordan). American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences 15(8): 1502–1513.
   Google Scholar
• Ali, M.Y., Waddington, S.R., Timsina, J., Hodson, D. and Dixon, J. 2009. Maize-rice cropping systems in Bangladesh: Status and research needs. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology USA 3(6): 35–53.
   Google Scholar
• Anderson, J.R. and Dillon, J.L. 1992. Risk analysis in dryland farming systems. Farming Systems Management Series No. 2. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organisation.
   Google Scholar
• Arce, C.E. 2015. Agricultural sector risk assessment: Tanzania. Washington, DC: World Bank Group Report 94883 (Tanzania).
   Google Scholar
• Archer, D.W., Pikul Jr, J.L. and Riedell, W.E. 2003. Analyzing risk and risk management in cropping systems. In Dynamic Cropping Systems: Principles, Processes, and Challenges, eds Hanson, J.D. and Krupinsky, J.M., 155–164. Bismarck, ND: Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory.
   Google Scholar
• Archer, D.W. and Reicosky, D.C. 2009. Economic performance of alternative tillage systems in the northern Corn Belt. Agronomy Journal 101: 296–304. doi: 10.2134/agronj2008.0090x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asci, S., Borisova, T. and VanSickle, J.J. 2015. Role of economics in developing fertiliser best management practices. Agricultural Water Management 152: 251–261. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.01.021
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Aune, J.B. and Bationo, A. 2008. Agricultural intensification in the Sahel - the ladder approach. Agricultural Systems 98(2): 119–125. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2008.05.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bommarco, R., Kleijn, D. and Potts, S.G. 2013. Ecological intensification: harnessing ecosystem services for food security. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 28(4): 230–238. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.012
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Burke, M.B., Lobell, D.B. and Guarino, L. 2009. Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvements and generic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change 19: 317–325. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Camara, B.S., Camara, F., Berthe, A. and Oswald, A. 2013. Micro-dosing of fertiliser–a technology for farmers’ needs and resources. International Journal of AgriScience 3(5): 387–399.
   Google Scholar
• Cobo, J.G., Dercon, G. and Cadisch, G. 2010. Nutrient balances in African land use systems across different spatial scales: A review of approaches, challenges and progress. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 136(1): 1–15. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2009.11.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dar, W.D. and Gowda, C.L.L. 2013. Declining agricultural productivity and global food security. Journal of Crop Improvement 27: 242–254. doi: 10.1080/15427528.2011.653097
   Google Scholar
• de Fraiture, C., Molden, D. and Wichelnsa, D. 2010. Investing in water for food, ecosystems, and livelihoods: An overview of the comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture. Agricultural Water Management 97: 495–501. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2009.08.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Graaff, J., Kessler, A. and Nibbering, J.W. 2011. Agriculture and food security in selected countries in sub-Sharan Africa: Diversity in trends and opportunities. Food Security 3: 195–213. doi: 10.1007/s12571-011-0125-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farquharson, R.J., Martin, R.J., McCorkell, B., Scott, J.F., Sotheary, E., Phaloeun, C. et al. 2013. Characteristics of an agricultural innovation and incentives for adoption: Rhisobium in Cambodia. International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development 4(2): 44–39.
   Google Scholar
• Fontana, M. 2005. Computer simulations, mathematics and economics. Working Paper 06. Department of Economics, University of Turin, Italy.
   Google Scholar
• Fox, P., Rockström, J. and Barron, J. 2005. Risk analysis and economic viability of water harvesting for supplemental irrigation in semi-arid Burkina Faso and Kenya. Agricultural Systems 83: 231–250. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.04.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fufa, B. and Hassan, R.M. 2006. Determinants of fertiliser use on maize in Eastern Ethiopia: A weighted endogenous sampling analysis of the extent and intensity of adoption. Agrekon 45(1): 38–49. doi: 10.1080/03031853.2006.9523732
   Google Scholar
• Gilbert, N. 2012. African agriculture: Dirt poor. Nature 483: 525–527. doi: 10.1038/483525a
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Graef, F., Schneider, I., Fasse, A., Germer, J.U., Gevorgyan, E., Haule, F. et al. 2015. Natural resource management and crop production strategies to improve regional food systems in Tanzania. Outlook on Agriculture 44(2): 159–167. doi: 10.5367/oa.2015.0206
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Graef, F., Sieber, S., Mutabazi, K., Asch, F., Biesalski, H.K., Bitegeko, J. et al. 2014. Framework for participatory food security research in rural food value chains. Global Food Security 3(1): 8–15. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.01.001
   Google Scholar
• Hardaker, J.B., Huirne, R.B.M., Anderson, J.R. and Lien, G. 2004a. Coping with risk in agriculture. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing.
   Google Scholar
• Hardaker, J.B., Richardson, J.W., Lien, G. and Schumann, K.D. 2004b. Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bound: A simplified approach. The Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Journal 48(2): 253–270. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2004.00239.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Henry, R.S., Johnson, W.G. and Wise, K.A. 2011. The impact of a fungicide and an insecticide on soybean growth, yield, and profitability. Crop Protection 30: 1629–1634. doi: 10.1016/j.cropro.2011.08.014
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• James, D.J. 2015. Adoption and use of Web 2.0 technologies: A comparison of four adoption models as a case study of a state government eExtension project. Published thesis submitted to the Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts University of Southern Queensland in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
   Google Scholar
• Kristjanson, P., Neufeldt, H., Gassner, A., Mango, J., Kyazze, F.B., Desta, S. et al. 2012. Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices ? Evidence from East Africa. Food Security 4: 381–397. doi: 10.1007/s12571-012-0194-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kuehne, G., Llewellyn, R., Pannell, D., Ouzman, J., Wilkinson, R. and Dolling, P. 2013. ADOPT: the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool – smallholder beta version (beta version, June 2013) [Computer software] Adelaide SA: CSIRO.
   Google Scholar
• Law, A.M. and Kelton, W.D. 2000. Simulation modeling and analysis, 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
   Google Scholar
• Leonardo, W.J., van de Ven, G.W.J., Udo, H., Kanellopoulos, A., Sitoe, A. and Giller, K.E. 2015. Labour not land constrains agricultural production and food self-sufficiency in maize-based smallholder farming systems in Mozambique. Food Security 7: 857–874. doi: 10.1007/s12571-015-0480-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li, X., Waddington, S.R., Dixon, J., Joshi, A.K. and de Vicente, M.C. 2011. The relative importance of drought and other water related constraints for major food crops in South Asian farming systems. Food Security 3(1): 19–33. doi: 10.1007/s12571-011-0111-x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mahoo, H.F., Kahimba, F.C., Mutabazi, K.D., Tumbo, S.D., Rwehumbisa, F.B., Reuben, P. et al., 2012. Adoption and up scaling of water harvesting technologies in Tanzania. In Water Harvesting Technologies in sub-Saharan Africa, Chapter 6: State of the Art, eds Christley, W. and Gowing, J. Oxford: Earthscan Publishers.
   Google Scholar
• Makurira, H., Savenije, H.H.G., Uhlenbrook, S., Rockström, J. and Senzanje, A. 2011. The effect of system innovations on water productivity in subsistence rainfed agricultural systems in semi-arid Tanzania. Agricultural Water Management 98(11): 1696–1703. doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2011.05.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mourice, S.K., Rweyemamu, C.L., Nyambilila, A.A. and Tumbo, S.D. 2014. Narrowing maize yield gaps under rain-fed conditions in Tanzania: Effects of small nitrogen dose. Tanzania Journal of Agricultural Sciences 12(2): 55–65.
   Google Scholar
• Msongaleli, B., Tumbo, S., Rwehumbiza, F. and Kihupi, N. 2015. Determinants of farm-level decisions regarding cereal crops and varieties in semi-arid central Tanzania. African Journal of Agricultural Research 10(30): 2968–2978. doi: 10.5897/AJAR2014.8916
   Google Scholar
• Murty, M.V.R., Singh, P., Wani, S.P., Khairwal, I.S. and Srinivas, K. 2007. Yield gap analysis of sorghum and pearl millet in India using simulation modeling. Global Theme on Agroecosystems Report No. 37, ICRISAT, Patancheru.
   Google Scholar
• Mutabazi, K.D. 2013. Scoping study for the Trans-SEC project in Tanzania. Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania.
   Google Scholar
• Mwinuka, L., Mutabazi, K.D., Graef, F., Maeda, C., Makoko, B. and Swai, E. 2015a. Agri-food value chains upgrading strategies choices: A participatory smallholder farmer centred approach. Plant2030 Status Seminar, Berlin, 4–6 March.
   Google Scholar
• Mwinuka, L., Mutabazi, K.D., Makindara, J. and Sieber, S. (2016) Reckoning the risks and rewards of fertiliser micro-dosing in a sub-humid farming system in Tanzania. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development 8(5–6): 497–508. doi: 10.1080/20421338.2016.1257537
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mwinuka, L., Schneider, I., Maeda, C., Mutabazi, K.D., Makindara, J., Graef, F. et al. 2015b. Comparing stakeholder views for mutual acceptable food value chain upgrading strategies in Tanzania. African Journal of Agricultural Research 10(12): 1376–1385. doi: 10.5897/AJAR2014.8901
   Google Scholar
• Page, S.L.J., Karanja, D.K., Mbwaga, A.M., Letayo, E.A.S. and Nsemwa, L.T.H. 2010. The underlying cause of the 2009 sorghum failure in Kongwa district and its implications for Tanzania’s vulnerability to climate change. Food Security 2(2): 157–167. doi: 10.1007/s12571-010-0059-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pfister, F., Bader, H.P., Scheider, R. and Buccini, P. 2005. Dynamic modeling of resource management for farming systems. Agricultural Systems 86: 1–28. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.08.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reynolds, J.F., Smith, D.M.S., Lambin, E.F., Turner, B.L., Mortimore, M., Batterbury, S.P.J. et al. 2007. Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science 316: 847–851. doi: 10.1126/science.1131634
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reynolds, T.W., Waddington, S.R., Anderson, C.L., Chew, A., True, Z. and Cullen, A. 2015. Environmental impacts and constraints associated with the production of major food crops in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Food Security 7: 795–822. doi: 10.1007/s12571-015-0478-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rezende, M.L. and Richardson, J.W. 2015. Economic feasibility of sugar and ethanol production in Brazil under alternative future prices outlook. Agricultural Systems 138: 77–87. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.05.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Richardson, J.W. 2010. Simulation for applied risk management. Unnumbered staff report, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy Center, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas.
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, J.W., Herbst, B.K., Outlaw, J.L. and Gill II, R.C. 2007. Including risk in economic feasibility analyses: The case of ethanol production in Texas. Journal of Agribusiness 25(2): 115–132.
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, J.W., Klose, S.L. and Gray, A.W. 2000. An applied procedure for estimating and simulating multivariate empirical (MVE) probability distribution in farm level risk assessment and policy analysis. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 32(2): 229–315. doi: 10.1017/S107407080002037X
   Google Scholar
• Richardson, J.W., Schumann, K.D. and Feldman, P.A. 2008. SIMETAR, simulation & econometrics to analyze risk. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
   Google Scholar
• Rockström, J., Kaumbutho, P., Mwalley, J., Nzabi, A.W., Temesgen, M., Mawenya, L. et al., 2009. Conservation farming strategies in East and Southern Africa: Yields and rain water productivity from on-farm action research. Soil and Tillage Research 103: 23–32. doi: 10.1016/j.still.2008.09.013
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sanchez, P.A. 2002. Soil fertility and hunger in Africa. Science 295: 2019–2020. doi: 10.1126/science.1065256
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shiferaw, B., Prasanna, B.M., Hellin, J. and Bänziger, M. 2011. Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Security 3: 307–327. doi: 10.1007/s12571-011-0140-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tabo, R., Bationo, A., DialloMaimouna, K., Kassane, O. and Koala, S. 2005. Fertiliser microdosing for the prosperity of small scale farmers in the Sahel. Final report, International Crop Research Institute for the Semiarid Tropics (ICRISAT), Sadore, Niger, 28.
   Google Scholar
• Turinawe, A., Drake, L. and Mugisha, J. 2015. Adoption intensity of soil and water conservation technologies: A case of South Western Uganda. Environment, Development and Sustainability 17(4): 711–730. doi: 10.1007/s10668-014-9570-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Twomlow, S., Rohrbach, D., Dimes, J., Rusike, J., Mupangwa, W., Ncube, B. et al., 2010. Micro-dosing as a pathway to Africa’s Green Revolution: evidence from broad-scale on-farm trials. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 88: 3–15. doi: 10.1007/s10705-008-9200-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Uphoff, N. 2012. Supporting food security in the 21st century through resource-conserving increases in agricultural production. Agriculture & Food Security 1: 18. doi: 10.1186/2048-7010-1-18
   Google Scholar
• Vanlauwe, B., Kihara, J., Chivenge, P., Pypers, P., Coe, R., and Six, J. 2011. Agronomic use efficiency of N fertiliser in maize-based systems in sub-Saharan Africa within the context of integrated soil fertility management. Plant and Soil 339: 35–50. doi: 10.1007/s11104-010-0462-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ville, A.S.S., Hickey, G.M., Locher, U. and Philip, L.E. 2016. Exploring the role of social capital in influencing knowledge flows and innovation in smallholder farming communities in the Caribbean. Food Security 8: 535–549. doi: 10.1007/s12571-016-0581-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vorotnikova, E., Borisova, T. and VanSickle, J.J. 2014. Evaluation of the profitability of a new precision fungicide application system for strawberry production. Agricultural Systems 130: 77–88. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2014.06.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vose, D. 2002. Risk analysis: a quantitative guide. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Wada, Y., van Beek, L.P., van Kempen, C.M., Reckman, J.W., Vasak, S. and Bierkens, M.F. 2010. Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophysical Research Letters 37(20): L20402. doi: 10.1029/2010GL044571
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar