Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects

References

• Alker , Hayward R. Jr. 1969 . “Statistics and Politics: The Need for Causal Data Analysis” . In Politics and the Social Sciences , Edited by: Lipset , Seymour Martin . 244 – 313 . New York : Oxford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Alker , Hayward R. Jr. 1970 . “Integration Logics: A Review, Extension, and Critique” . International Organization , 24 : 869 – 914 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Alker , Hayward R. Jr. and Bock , Peter . 1972 . “Propositions About International Relations: Contributions from the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences” . In Political Science Annual: An International Review , Edited by: Robinson , James A. Vol. III , 385 – 495 . Indianapolis : Bobbs‐Merrill .
   Google Scholar
• Alker , Hayward K. Jr. and Christensen , Cheryl . 1972 . “From Causal Modeling to Artificial Intelligence: The Evolution of a U.N. Peace‐Making Simulation” . In Experimentation and Simulation in Political Science , Edited by: Laponce , J. A. and Smoker , Paul . Toronto : University of Toronto Press .
   Google Scholar
• Allison , Graham T. 1969 . “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis” . American Political Science Review , 63 : 689 – 718 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Allison , Graham T. and Halperin , Morton H. 1972 . “Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications” . In Theory and Policy in International Relations , Edited by: Tanter , Raymond and Ullman , Richard H. 40 – 79 . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de , ed. 1966 . Analyse et Prevision , Paris : SEDEIS .
   Google Scholar
• Anderson , Stanford , ed. 1968 . Planning for Diversity and Choice: Possible Futures and Their Relations to the Man‐Controlled Environment , Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T. Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ando , Albert , Fisher , Franklin and Simon , Herbert A. 1963 . Essays on the Structure of Social Science Models , Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T. Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ashley , Richard and Choucri , Nazli . “ [In preparation]. “Decision Analysis in International Politics: The Imperatives for Forecasting” . Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T., Center for International Studies .
   Google Scholar
• Ashley , Richard and Choucri , Nazli . 1974 . “Decision Analysis (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco, W. H. : Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Ayres , Robert U. 1969 . Technological Forecasting and Long‐Range Planning , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Azar , Edward E. 1970a . “Analysis of International Events” . Peace Research Reviews , 4 ( 1 )
   Google Scholar
• Azar , Edward E. 1970b . “The Dimensionality of Violent Conflict: A Quantitative Analysis” Peace Research Society (International) ” . In Papers , (Cambridge Conference) Vol. 15 , 122 – 67 .
   Google Scholar
• Azar , Edward E. 1974 . “An Early Warning Model of Inter‐nation Hostilities (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Baier , Kurt and Rescher , Nicholas , eds. 1969 . Values and the Future , New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bay , Christian . 1958 . The Structure of Freedom , Stanford, Calif : Stanford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bean , Louis H. 1969 . The Art of Forecasting , New York : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Beckwith , Burnham Putnam . 1967 . The Next 500 Years: Scientific Predictions of Major Social Trends , New York : Exposition .
   Google Scholar
• Bell , Daniel . 1964 . “Twelve Modes of Prediction—a Preliminary Sorting of Approaches in the Social Sciences” . Daedalus , 93 : 845 – 80 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bell , Daniel . 1967 . “Notes on the Post‐Industrial Society (I and II)” . The Public Interest , 6 : 25 – 35 . Vol. 7, pp. 102–18
   Google Scholar
• Bell , Daniel . 1967 . “The Year 2000—the Trajectory of an Idea” . Daedalus , 96 : 639 – 51 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bell , Wendell and Mau , James A. 1970 . “Images of the Future: Theory and Research Strategies” . In Theoretical Sociology: Perspectives and Developments , Edited by: McKinney , J. and Tiryakian , E. 205 – 34 . New York : Appleton‐Century‐Crofts .
   Google Scholar
• Bell , Wendell and Mau , James A. , eds. 1971 . The Sociology of the Future , New York : Russell Sage Foundation .
   Google Scholar
• Ben‐Dak , Joseph D. and Mihalka , Michael . . “Bayesian Analysis: An Exposition and Implication for International Peace” . Paper read at the First Annual Meeting of the Peace Research Society (International) Southern Section . April . Chapel Hill : University of North Carolina .
   Google Scholar
• Bertram , Christoph . 1968 . “Models of Western Europe in the 1970's—the Alternative Choices” . Futures , 1 December : 142 – 52 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bestuzhev‐Lada , Igor . 1969 . “Forecasting—An Approach to the Problems of the Future” . International Social Science Journal , 21 : 526 – 34 .
   Google Scholar
• Bhagwati , Jagdish N. , ed. 1972 . Economics and World Order; From the 1970's to the 1990's , New York : Macmillan .
   Google Scholar
• Blackman , Wade A. 1972 . “Forecasting Through Dynamic Modeling” . Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 3 : 291 – 307 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blalock , Hubert M. Jr. 1960 . Social Statistics , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Blalock , Hubert M. Jr. and Blalock , Ann B. , eds. 1969 . Methodology in Social Research , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Bobrow , Davis . . “International Indicators” . Discussion draft paper read at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association . September , New York City.
   Google Scholar
• Bobrow , Davis . 1972 . “The Relevance Potential of Different Products” . In Theory and Policy in International Relations , Edited by: Tanter , Raymond and Ullman , Richard H. 204 – 28 . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bobrow , Davis . 1974 . “Criteria for Valid Forecasting (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Bozeman , Adda B. 1960 . Politics and Culture in International History , Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Bright , G. R. , ed. 1968 . Technological Forecasting for Industry and Government , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Brody , Richard A. 1963 . “Some Systematic Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons Technology: A Study Through Simulation of a Multi‐Nuclear Future” . Journal of Conflict Resolution , 7 : 663 – 753 .
   Google Scholar
• Brown , Harrison . 1954 . The Challenge of Man's Future , New York : Viking Press .
   Google Scholar
• Brown , Harrison , Bonner , James and Weir , John . 1957 . The Next Hundred Years , New York : Viking Press .
   Google Scholar
• Brown , Harrison . 1967 . The Next Ninety Years , Pasadena : California Institute of Technology .
   Google Scholar
• Brown , Robert Goodell . 1963 . Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Brunner , Ronald . 1968 . “Some Comments on Simulation Theories of Political Development” . In Simulation in the Study of Politics , Edited by: Coplin , William D. Chicago : Markham .
   Google Scholar
• Buchholz , A . 1968 . Die Grosse Transformation , Stuttgart, Germany : Deutsche Verlagsanstalt .
   Google Scholar
• Butler , William F. and Kavish , Robert A. 1966 . How Business Economists Forecast , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Calder , Nigel . 1965 . “Summing up” . In The World in 1984 , Edited by: Calder . Vol. 2 , 191 – 97 . Baltimore : Penguin Books .
   Google Scholar
• Calleo , David P. 1965 . Europe's Future: The Grand Alternatives , New York : Horizon Press .
   Google Scholar
• Cantril , Hadley . 1965 . The Pattern of Human Concerns , New Brunswick, N.J. : Rutgers University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Cetron , Marvin, J. 1961 . Technological Forecasting: A Practical Approach , New York : Technology Forecasting Institute .
   Google Scholar
• Chase , Stuart . 1968 . The Most Probable World , New York : Harper and Row .
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli . 1972 . “Population Dynamics and International Violence : Propositions, Insights, and Evidence” . Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T. . Mimeographed
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli . 1972 . “Applications of Econometric Analysis to Forecasting in International Relations” Peace Research Society (International) ” . In Papers , Philadelphia Conference [In press]
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli . 1974 . “The Problem of Intersection: Linking Long‐Range and Short‐Range Forecasting (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli and Bennett , James P. 1972 . “Population, Resources, and Technology: Political Implications of the Environmental Crisis” . In World Eco‐Crisis; International Organizations in Response , Edited by: Kay , David A. and Skolnikoff , Eugene B. 9 – 46 . Madison, Wisconsin : University of Wisconsin Press .
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli , Laird , Michael and Meadows , Dennis L. 1972 . Resource Scarcity and Foreign Policy: A Simulation Model of International Conflict , Cambridge, Mass : M.I.T., Center for International Studies .
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli and North , Robert C. 1972 . “Dynamics of International Conflict: Some Policy Implications of Population, Resources, and Technology” . In Theory and Policy in International Relations , Edited by: Tanter , Raymond and Ullman , Richard H. 80 – 122 . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli . “ [In preparation: revised February 1973] ” . In Nations in Conflict: Population, Lateral Pressure and War
   Google Scholar
• Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas , eds. 1974 . Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Christ , Carl F. 1966 . Econometric Models and Methods , New York : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• 1972 . Civilization and Science: In Conflict or Collaboration? . A Ciba Foundation Symposium . 1972 . The Hague : M. Nijhoff .
   Google Scholar
• Commission on the Year 2000 . 1967 . “Working Session I” . Daedalus , 96 : 652 – 704 .
   Google Scholar
• Coplin , William D. 1968 . Simulation in the Study of Politics , Chicago : Markham .
   Google Scholar
• Cornish , Edward S. 1969 . “The Professional Futurist” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . 244 – 50 . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Dalkey , N . 1969 . “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion: the Delphic Method” . Futures , 1 September : 408 – 26 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deutsch , Karl W. 1972 . “Experiments and Political Theory” . In Experimentation and Simulation in Political Science , Edited by: Laponce , J. A. and Smoker , Paul . 19 – 38 . Toronto : Toronto University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Dror , Yehezkel . 1968 . “The Role of Futures in Government” . Futures , 1 September : 40 – 45 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Drucker , Peter . 1968 . The Age of Discontinuity: Guidelines to Our Changing Society , New York : Harper and Row .
   Google Scholar
• Ellul , Jacques . 1963 . “Western Man in 1970” . In Futuribles: Studies in Conjecture , Edited by: Jouvenel , Bertrand de . Vol. 1 , 27 – 64 . Geneva : Droz .
   Google Scholar
• Eulau , Heinz . 1958 . “H. D. Lasswell's Developmental Analysis” . Western Political Quarterly , 2 June : 229 – 42 .
   Google Scholar
• Simulation Using Digital Computers , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Ewald , William R. , ed. 1968 . Environment and Change: The Next Fifty Years , Bloomington : Indiana University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ewald , William R. , ed. 1968 . Environment and Policy: The Next Fifty Years , Bloomington : Indiana University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Feigenbaum , E. A. and Feldman , Julian , eds. 1963 . Computers and Thought , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Fishman , George S. and Kiviat , Philip J. . “Digital Computer Simulation: Statistical Considerations” . prepared for United States Air Force Project RAND, Memorandum RM‐5387‐PR . November , Santa Monica, Calif.. The RAND Corporation .
   Google Scholar
• 1967 . “Forecasting the Future” . Science Journal , 3 October
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Freymond , Jacques . 1965 . “Introduction—Forecasting and Europe” . In Futuribles: Studies in Conjecture , Edited by: Jouvenal , Bertrand de . Vol. 2 , xiii – xxx . Geneva : Droz .
   Google Scholar
• Friedlaender , Saul . 1965 . “Forecasting in International Relations” . In Futuribles: Studies in Conjecture , Edited by: Jouvenel , Bertrand de . Vol. 2 , 1 – 112 . Geneva : Droz .
   Google Scholar
• Furnas , Clifford C. 1936 . The Next Hundred Years: The Unfinished Business of Science , New York : Reynal and Hitchcock .
   Google Scholar
• 1968 . Futures: The Journal of Forecasting and Planning , London : Unwin .
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de , ed. 1961–1965 . Futuribles—Supplement to Bulletin Sedeis , Paris : SEDEIS .
   Google Scholar
• 1967 . The Futurist. A Newsletter for Tomorrow's World , Washington, D.C. : World Future Society .
   Google Scholar
• Gabor , Dennis . 1964 . Inventing the Future , New Yoik : Knopf .
   Google Scholar
• Galtung , Johan . 1969 . “On the Future of the International System” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Jbhan . 12 – 41 . Oslo : Universitetsfoilaget .
   Google Scholar
• Galtung , Johan . 1970 . “On the Future of Human Society” . Futures , 2 June : 132 – 42 .
   Google Scholar
• Gordon , Theodore J. 1965 . The Future , New York : St. Martin's Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gordon , Theodore J. 1969 . “Cross‐impact Matrices: An Illustration of their Use for Policy Analysis” . Futures , 1 December : 527 – 31 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gordon , Theodore J. 1969 . “The Feedback between Technology and Values” . In Values and the Future , Edited by: Baier , K. and Rescher , N. 148 – 92 . New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Gordon , Theodore J. and Hayward , H. 1968 . “Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting” . Futures , 1 December : 100 – 16 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Groennings , Sven , Kelley , E. W. and Leiserson , Michael , eds. 1970 . The Study of Coalition Behavior: Theoretical Perspectives and Cases from Four Continents , New York : Holt, Rinehart and Winston .
   Google Scholar
• Guetzkow , Harold . 1950 . “Long Range Research in International Relations” . American Perspective , 4 : 421 – 40 .
   Google Scholar
• Guetzkow , Harold . 1959 . “A Use of Simulation in the Study of Inter‐Nation Relations” . Behavioral Science , 4 : 183 – 91 .
   Google Scholar
• Guetzkow , Harold . 1968 . “Some Correspondences Between Simulations and ‘Realities’ in International Relations” . In New Approaches to International Relations , Edited by: Kaplan , Morton A. 200 – 69 . New York : St. Martins .
   Google Scholar
• Guetzkow , Harold . 1969 . “Simulations in the Consolidation and Utilization of Knowledge About International Relations” . In Theory and Research on the Causes of War , Edited by: Pruitt , Dean G. and Snyder , Richard C. Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Guetzkow , Harold , Kotler , Philip and Schultz , Randall L. 1972 . Simulation in Social and Administrative Science; Overviews and Case‐Examples , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Habermas , Jurgen . 1968 . Knowledge and Human Interests , Boston : Beacon .
   Google Scholar
• Hacker , Frederick J. 1969 . “Human Implications” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . 233 – 41 . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Harrison , Annette . March 1967 . Bibliography on Automation and Technological Change and Studies of the Future , March , Santa Monica, Calif : The RAND Corporation . RAND Publication No P‐3365–2
   Google Scholar
• Hayashi , Yujiro . 1969 . “The Direction and Orientation of Futurology as a Science” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . 270 – 77 . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Heilbroner , Robert L. 1960 . The Future as History , New York : Harper .
   Google Scholar
• Helmer , Olaf . September 1966 . A Use of Simulation for the Study of Future Values , September , Santa Monica, Calif. : The RAND Corporation . RAND Publication No. P‐3443
   Google Scholar
• Helmer , Olaf . 1969 . “Simulating the Values of the Future” . In Values and the Future , Edited by: Baier , K. and Rescher , N. 193 – 213 . New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Hermann , Charles . 1967 . “Validation Problems in Games and Simulations with Special Reference to Models of International Politics” . Behavioral Science , 12 : 216 – 31 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Hermann , Charles . 1969 . Crises in Foreign Policy Making: A Simulation of International Politics , Indianapolis : Bobbs‐Merrill .
   Google Scholar
• Hermann , Charles and Hermann , Margaret G. 1967 . “An Attempt to Simulate the Outbreak of World War I” . American Political Science Review , 61 : 400 – 16 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hermann , Charles , Philips , Warren and Thorsen , Stuart . 1974 . “Alternative Types of Validation (working titles)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Hetman , Francois . 1970 . Le Langage de la Prevision , Paris : SEDEIS .
   Google Scholar
• Holstein , Carl‐Axe S. Stael von . 1970 . Assessment and Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions , Stockholm : The Economic Research Institute .
   Google Scholar
• Hubbard , Earl . 1969 . The Search Is On: A View of Man's Future from the New Perspective of Space , Los Angeles : Pace Publications .
   Google Scholar
• Husserl , Edmund . 1965 . Phenomenology and the Crisis of Philosophy , New York : Harper and Row .
   Google Scholar
• Iklé , Fred Charles . 1967 . “Can Social Predictions be Evaluated?“ . Daedalus , 96 : 733 – 58 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Inbar , Michael and Stoll , Clarice S. 1972 . Simulation and Gaming in Social Science , New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• The Institute for the Future . 1968 . The Institute for the Future (A Prospectus) , Middletown, Conn : Institute for the Future‐Riverview Center .
   Google Scholar
• Israeli , Nathan . 1932 . “The Social Psychology of Time” . Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , 27 July : 209 – 13 .
   Google Scholar
• Jantsch , Erich , ed. 1967 . Technological Forecasting in Perspective , Paris : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development .
   Google Scholar
• Johnston , John . 1972 . Econometric Methods , New York : McGraw‐Hill .
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de . 1963 . “La prevision des idees” . Futuribles , December 1 Supplement to Bulletin Sedeis 870
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de . 1965 . “Political Science and Prevision” . American Political Science Review , 59 March : 29 – 38 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de . 1967 . The Art of Conjecture , New York : Basic Books .
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de . 1968 . “On Attending to the Future” . In Environment and Change: The Next Fifty Years , Edited by: Ewald , William R. 21 – 29 . Bloomington : Indiana University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jouvenel , Bertrand de . 1969 . “Technology as a Means” . In Values and the Future , Edited by: Baier , K. and Rescher , N. 217 – 32 . New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jungk , Robert . 1967 . “The Future of Future Research” . Science Journal , 3 October : 3 – 40 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kahn , Hermann . 1960 . On Thermonuclear War , Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kahn , Herman . 1966 . “On Alternative World Futures: Issues and Themes” . New York : Hudson Institute, Inc. .
   Google Scholar
• Kahn , Herman . 1968 . “The Alternative World Futures Approach” . In New Approaches to International Relations , Edited by: Kaplan , Morton A. 83 – 137 . New York : St. Martin's Press .
   Google Scholar
• Kahn , Herman and Weiner , Anthony J. 1967 . “The Next Thirty‐Three Years: a Framework for Speculation” . Daedalus , 96 : 705 – 32 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kahn , Herman . 1967 . The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty‐Three Years , New York : Macmillan .
   Google Scholar
• Kaplan , Abraham . 1964 . The Conduct of Inquiry , San Francisco : Chandler .
   Google Scholar
• Kaplan , Abraham , Skogstad , A. L. and Girshick , M. A. 1950 . “The Prediction of Social and Technological Events” . Public Opinion Quarterly , 14 : 93 – 111 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kay , David A. and Skolnikoff , Eugene B. , eds. 1972 . World Eco‐Crisis; International Organizations in Response , Madison : University of Wisconsin Press .
   Google Scholar
• Keohane , Robert O. and Nye , Joseph S. Jr. , eds. 1972 . Transnational Relations and World Politics , Cambridge, Mass : Harvard University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Laponce , J. A. and Smoker , Paul . 1972 . Experimentation and Simulation in Political Science , Toronto : Toronto University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Lasswell , Harold D. 1941 . “The Garrison State” . American Journal of Sociology , 46 January : 455 – 68 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lasswell , Harold D. 1966 . “The Changing Image of Human Nature: The Socio‐Cultural Aspect (future‐oriented man)” . American Journal of Psychoanalysis , 26 ( 2 ) : 157 – 66 .
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Leavitt , Michael . . “Thoughts on Computer Simulation of International Relations” . Paper read at the Sixty‐sixth Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association . September , Los Angeles.
   Google Scholar
• Leavitt , Michael . 1974 . “Computer Simulation (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Martino , Joseph P. 1972 . Technological Forecasting for Decision‐Making , New York : American Elsevier .
   Google Scholar
• Massenet , Michel . 1963 . “Introduction a une sociologie de la prevision” . Futuribles , June 20 Supplement to Bulletin Sedeis (Pt. 2) 857
   Google Scholar
• Massenet , Michel . 1963 . “Les methodes de prevision en sciences sociales” . Futuribles , November 1 Supplement to Bulletin Sedeis (Pt. 2) 867
   Google Scholar
• McClelland , Charles . 1974 . “Analysis of Actions and Events (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• McHale , John . 1968 . “A Global View” . In Social Policies for America in the Seventies , Edited by: Theobald , Robert . 195 – 216 . Garden City, N.Y. : Doubleday .
   Google Scholar
• McHale , John . 1969 . The Future of the Future , New York : George Braziller .
   Google Scholar
• Meier , Robert C. , Newell , William T. and Pazer , Harold L. 1969 . Simulation in Business and Economics , Englewood Cliffs, N.J. : Prentice‐Hall .
   Google Scholar
• Michael , Donald N. 1968 . The Unprepared Society: Planning for a Precarious Future , New York : Basic Books .
   Google Scholar
• Milburn , T. W. and Milburn , J. F. 1966 . “Predictions of Threats and Beliefs About How to Meet Them” . American Behavioral Scientist , 9 March : 3 – 7 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore , Wilbert E. 1964 . “Forecasting the Future: the United States in 1980” . Educational Record , 45 Fall : 341 – 54 .
   Google Scholar
• Moses , Lincoln E. , Brody , Richard A. , Holsti , Ole R. , Kadane , Joseph B. and Milstein , Jeffrey S. 1967 . “Scaling Data on Inter‐Nation Action” . Science , 156 May 26 : 1054 – 59 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Natanson , Maurice Alexander . 1963 . Philosophy of the Social Sciences. A Reader , New York : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Naylor , Thomas H. 1968 . Computer Simulation Techniques , New York : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Ozebekhan , Hasan . May 27 1966 . Technology and Man's Future , Report No. SP‐2494 May 27 , Santa Monica, Calif. : System Development Corporation .
   Google Scholar
• Ozebekhan , Hasan . 1968 . “The Triumph of Technology: ‘ Can’ Implies ‘ Ought’” . In Planning for Diversity and Choice , Edited by: Anderson , Stanford . 204 – 19 . Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T. Press .
   Google Scholar
• Singh , L. P. , ed. 1965 . Perspectives: Studies in Social and Political Forecasting—Supplement to the Indian Journal of Public Administration , New Delhi : Indian Institute of Public Administration .
   Google Scholar
• Picht , Georg . 1969 . Mut zur Utopie: Die Grossen Zakunftsaufgaben , Munich : R. Piper and Co., Verlag .
   Google Scholar
• Piganiol , Pierre . 1969 . “Introduction: Futurology and Prospective Study.’’ . International Social Science Journal , 21 : 515 – 25 .
   Google Scholar
• Platt , John R. 1968 . The Step to Man , New York : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Polak , Fred L. 1961 . The Image of the Future: Enlightening the Past, Orienting the Present, Forecasting the Future , 2 Vols. , New York : Oceana Publications .
   Google Scholar
• Polak , Fred L. 1969 . “Towards the Goal of Goals” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . 307 – 31 . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Prehoda , Robert W. 1967 . Designing the Future: The Role of Technological Forecasting , Philadelphia : Chilton Books .
   Google Scholar
• 1958 . Prospective , Paris : Presses Universitaires de France . Centre d'Etudes Prospectives (Association Gaston Berger)
   Google Scholar
• Richta , Radovan and Sulc , Ota . 1969 . “Forecasting and the Scientific and Technological Revolution” . International Journal of Social Science , 21 : 563 – 73 .
   Google Scholar
• Rivlin , Alice M. 1971 . Systematic Thinking for Social Action , Washington : The Brookings Institution .
   Google Scholar
• Rolbiecki , Waldemar . 1969 . “Prognostication and Prognoseology” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . 278 – 85 . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Rosecrance , Richard N. 1963 . Action and Reaction in World Politics; International Systems in Perspective , Boston : Little, Brown .
   Google Scholar
• Rosenau , James N. , ed. 1969 . International Politics and Foreign Policy: A Reader in Research and Theory , 2nd ed. rev , New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ross , Scott . 1974 . “Process Models: Markov Chains (working title)” . In Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects , Edited by: Choucri , Nazli and Robinson , Thomas . San Francisco : W. H. Freeman . Forthcoming
   Google Scholar
• Ruggie , John Gerard . 1972 . “Collective Good and Future International Collaboration.’’ . American Political Science Review , 66 : 874 – 93 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Russett , Bruce M. , ed. 1972 . Peace, War, and Numbers , Beverly Hills : Sage Publications .
   Google Scholar
• Savage , Leonard J. 1954 . The Foundations of Statistics , New York : Wiley .
   Google Scholar
• Schon , Donald A. 1967 . “Forecasting and Technological Forecasting” . Daedalus , 96 : 759 – 71 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schultze , Charles . 1971 . Setting National Priorities: The 1972 Budget , Washington : The Brookings Institution .
   Google Scholar
• Shubik , Martin . 1967 . “Information, Rationality, and Free Choice in a Future Democratic Society” . Daedalus , 96 : 771 – 78 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shubik , Martin . 1968 . Simulation of Socio‐Economic Systems , New Haven : Yale University, Cowles Foundation for Research .
   Google Scholar
• Smoker , Paul . 1968 . “ An International Processes Simulation: Theory and Description” Mimeographed ” . Evanston, Ill. : Northwestern University, Simulated International Processes Project .
   Google Scholar
• Stinchcombe , Arthur L. 1968 . Constructing Social Theories , New York : Harcourt, Brace and World .
   Google Scholar
• Sulc , Otto . 1969 . “Interactions Between Technological and Social Changes: a forecasting model” . Futures , 1 September : 402 – 07 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thevenaz , Pierre . 1962 . What is Phenomenology? , Chicago : Quadrangle .
   Google Scholar
• Toffler , Alvin . 1965 . “The Future as a Way of Life” . Horizon , 7 : 108 – 16 .
   Google Scholar
• Toffler , Alvin . 1969 . “Value Impact Forecaster—A Profession of the Future” . In Values and the Future , Edited by: Baier , K. and Rescher , N. 1 – 30 . New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Toffler , Alvin . 1970 . Future Shock , New York : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Udall , Stuart L. 1968 . 1976: Agenda for Tomorrow , New York : Harcourt Brace and World .
   Google Scholar
• Umpleby , Stuart . 1969 . The Delphi Exploration (A Computer‐Based System for Obtaining Subjective Judgements on Alternative Futures) , Social Implications of Science and Technology Report F‐1 Urbana, Illinois : Computer‐Based Education Research Laboratory, University of Illinois .
   Google Scholar
• Unesco . 1969 . “Futurology” . International Social Science Journal , 21 December
   Google Scholar
• United Nations . 1971 . World Plan of Action for the Application of Science and Technology to Development , New York : Department of Economic and Social Affairs .
   Google Scholar
• Wascow , Arthur I. 1969 . “Looking Forward: 1999” . In Mankind 2000 , Edited by: Jungk , Robert and Galtung , Johan . Oslo : Universitetsforlaget .
   Google Scholar
• Whiting , Allen S. 1972 . “The Scholai and the Policy‐Maker” . In Theory and Policy in International Relations , Edited by: Tanter , Raymond and Ullman , Richard H. 229 – 47 . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Wilcox , Wayne . June 1970 . “Forecasting Asian Strategic Environments for National Security Decision‐making: A Report and a Method” . June , Santa Monica, Calif. : The RAND Corporation . Memorandum Rm‐6154‐PR
   Google Scholar
• Young , Michael . 1968 . “Forecasting and the Social Sciences” . In Forecasting and the Social Sciences , Edited by: Young . 1 – 37 . London : Heineman .
   Google Scholar
• Young , Michael . 1968 . Forecasting and the Social Sciences , London : Heineman .
   Google Scholar
• Young , Oran R. 1972 . “The Perils of Odysseus: On Constructing Theories of International Relations” . In Theory and Policy in International Relations , Edited by: Tanter , Raymond and Ullman , Richard H. 179 – 203 . Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Zinnes , Dina A. 1967 . “An Analytical Study of the Balance of Power Theories” . Journal of Peace Research , : 270 – 88 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zinnes , Dina A. and Wilkenfeld , Jonathan . 1971 . “An Analysis of Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations” . In Comparative Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays , Edited by: Hanreider , Wolfram F. 167 – 213 . New York : McKay .
   Google Scholar