Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

References

• Adland, R., D. Hansson, and L. von der Wense. 2017. “Valuing Cargo Flexibility in Oil Transportation.” Maritime Policy & Management 44 (7): 803–804. doi:10.1080/03088839.2017.1366079.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bendall, H. B. 1980. “Coal-Fixed Turbines versus Diesel: An Australian Context.” Maritime Policy & Management 6 (3): 209–215. doi:10.1080/03088837900000018.
   Google Scholar
• Bendall, H. B., and A. F. Stent. 2003. “Investment Strategies in Market Uncertainty.” Maritime Policy & Management 30 (4): 293–303. doi:10.1080/0308883032000145609.
   Google Scholar
• Bendall, H. B., and A. F. Stent. 2005. “Ship Investment under Uncertainty: Valuing a Real Option on the Maximum of Several Strategies.” Maritime Economics & Logistics 7 (1): 19–35. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100122.
   Google Scholar
• Bendall, H. B., and A. F. Stent. 2007. “Maritime Investment Strategies with a Portfolio of Real Options.” Maritime Policy & Management 34 (5): 441–452. doi:10.1080/03088830701585183.
   Google Scholar
• Black, F., and M. Scholes. 1973. “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities.” Journal of Political Economy 81 (3): 637–654. doi:10.1086/260062.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brandão, L. E., J. S. Dyer, and W. J. Hahn. 2008. “Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems.” Decision Analysis 2 (2): 69–88. doi:10.1287/deca.1050.0040.
   Google Scholar
• Bulut, E. 2013. “Market Entry, Asset Returns, and Irrational Exuberance: Asset Management Anomalies in Dry Cargo Shipping.” International Journal of Shipping & Transport Logistics 5 (6): 652–667. doi:10.1504/IJSTL.2013.056851.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chistè, C., and V. V. Gary. 2014. “Investigating the Cyclical Behaviour of the Dry Bulk Shipping Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 41 (1): 1–19. doi:10.1080/03088839.2013.780216.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chou, H. C. 2014. “Return Lead–Lag and Volatility Transmission in Shipping Freight Markets.” Maritime Policy & Management 41 (7): 697–714. doi:10.1080/03088839.2013.865849.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cox, J. C., S. A. Ross, and M. Rubinstein. 1979. “Option Pricing: a Simplified Approach.” Journal of Financial Economics 7 (3): 229–263.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dikos, G. 2008. “Real Options Econometrics for Aggregate Tanker Investment Decisions.” International Journal of Ocean Systems Management 1 (1): 31–44. doi:10.1504/IJOSM.2008.01778.
   Google Scholar
• Dinwoodie, J., M. Landamore, and P. Rigot-Muller. 2014. “Dry Bulk Shipping Flows to 2050: Delphi Perceptions of Early Career Specialists.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 88: 64–75. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.010.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Engle, R. F. 1982. “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation.” Econometrica 50 (4): 987–1007. doi:10.2307/1912773.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Evans, J. J. 1984. “Some Practical Aspects of Investment Appraisal in Shipping.” Maritime Policy & Management 11 (3): 197–222. doi:10.1080/03088838400000017.
   Google Scholar
• Fan, L., and M. Luo. 2013. “Analyzing Ship Investment Behaviour in Liner Shipping.” Maritime Policy & Management 40 (6): 511–533. doi:10.1080/03088839.2013.776183.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frankel, E. G. 1982. Management and Operations of American Shipping. Boston, Auburn House.
   Google Scholar
• Greenwood, R., and S. G. Hanson. 2014. “Waves in Ship Prices and Investment.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 130 (1): 55–109. doi:10.1093/qje/qju035.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hodder, J. E., and H. E. Riggs. 1985. “Pitfalls in Evaluating Risky Projects.” Harvard Business Review 63 (1): 128–135.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G. 1996. “Comparisons of Volatility in the Dry-Cargo Ship Sector: Spot versus Time Charters, and Smaller versus Larger Vessels.” Journal of Transport Economics & Policy 30 (1): 67–82.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kavussanos, M. G. 1997. “The Dynamics of Time-Varying Volatilities in Different Size Second-Hand Ship Prices of the Dry-Cargo Sector.” Applied Economics 29 (4): 433–443. doi:10.1080/000368497326930.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kyriakou, I., P. K. Pouliasis, N. C. Papapostolou, and N. K. Nomikos. 2017. “Income Uncertainty and the Decision to Invest in Bulk Shipping.” European Financial Management 24 (3): 387–417. doi:10.1111/eufm.12132.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Merton, R. C. 1973. “Theory of Rational Option Pricing.” Bell Journal of Economics 4 (1): 141–183. doi:10.2307/3003143.
   Google Scholar
• Myers, S. C. 1977. “Determinants of Corporate Borrowing.” Journal of Financial Economics 5 (2): 147–175. doi:10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Philipp, S., and S. Spinler. 2017. “Alliance Formation in a Cooperative Container Shipping Game: Performance of a Real Options Investment Approach.” Transportation Research Part E Logistics & Transportation Review 101: 155–175. doi:10.1016/j.tre.2017.02.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sloggett, J. E. 1984. Shipping Finance. London: Fairplay.
   Google Scholar
• Stopford, M. 1997. Maritime Economics. London, Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Xu, J. J., and T. L. Yip. 2012. “Ship Investment at a Standstill? an Analysis of Shipbuilding Activities and Policies.” Applied Economics Letters 19 (3): 269–275. doi:10.1080/13504851.2011.572842.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yijie, W., J. Yin, and P. Sheng. 2018. “The Dynamics of Dry Bulk Shipping Market under the Shipping Cycle Perspective: Market Relationships and Volatility.” Transportation Research Record. doi:10.1177/0361198118756622.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yin, J., and J. Shi. 2018. “Seasonality Patterns in the Container Shipping Freight Rate Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 45 (2): 153–173. doi:10.1080/03088839.2017.1420260.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yin, J., M. Luo, and L. Fan. 2017. “Dynamics and Interactions between Spot and Forward Freights in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market.” Maritime Policy & Management 44 (2): 271–288. doi:10.1080/03088839.2016.1253884.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yun, H., S. Lim, and K. Lee. 2018. “The Value of Options for Time Charterparty Extension: An Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Approach.” Maritime Policy & Management 45 (2): 197–210. doi:10.1080/03088839.2017.1392630.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zheng, S., and R. R. Negenborn. 2017. “Terminal Investment Timing Decisions in a Competitive Setting with Uncertainty Using a Real Option Approach.” Maritime Policy & Management 44 (3): 1–20. doi:10.1080/03088839.2016.1274832.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar