1,214
Views
30
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Thoughts on the Analysis of Group-Based Developmental Trajectories in Criminology

Pages 469-490 | Published online: 28 Jun 2011

References

  • Apel , R. , Bushway , S. , Brame , R. , Haviland , A. M. , Nagin , D. S. and Paternoster , R. 2007 . Unpacking the relationship between adolescent employment and antisocial behavior: A matched samples comparison . Criminology , 45 : 67 – 97 .
  • Armstrong , J.S. 1967 . Derivation of theory by means of factor analysis or Tom Swift and his electric factor analysis machine . American Statistician , 21 : 17 – 21 .
  • Barnett , A. , Blumstein , A. and Farrington , D. P. 1987 . Probabilistic models of youthful criminal careers . Criminology , 25 : 83 – 108 .
  • Bauer , D. J. and Curran , P. J. 2003 . Distributional assumptions of growth mixture models: Implications for overextractions of latent trajectory models . Psychological Methods , 8 : 338 – 363 .
  • Berk , R. , Brown , L. and Zhao , L. 2010 . Statistical inference after model selection . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 26 : 217 – 236 .
  • Blumstein , A. , Cohen , J. and Farrington , D. P. 1988a . Criminal career research: Its value for criminology . Criminology , 26 : 1 – 35 .
  • Blumstein , A. , Cohen , J. and Farrington , D. P. 1988b . Longitudinal and criminal career research: Further clarifications . Criminology , 26 : 57 – 74 .
  • Blumstein , A. and Moitra , S. D. 1980 . The identification of “career criminals” from “chronic offenders” in a cohort . Law and Policy Quarterly , 2 : 332 – 334 .
  • Blumstein , A. , Farrington , D. P. and Moitra , S. D. 1985 . “ Delinquency careers: Innocents, desisters, and persisters ” . In Crime and justice: An annual review of research , Edited by: Tonry , M. and Morris , N. Vol. 6 , Chicago , IL : University of Chicago Press .
  • Brame , R. , Nagin , D. S. and Wasserman , L. 2006 . Exploring some analytical characteristics of finite mixture models . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 22 : 31 – 59 .
  • Britt , C. L. 1992 . Constancy and change in the US age distribution of crime: A test of the “invariance hypothesis” . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 8 : 175 – 187 .
  • D’Unger , A. V. , Land , K. C. , McCall , P. L. and Nagin , D. S. 1998 . How many latent classes of delinquent/criminal careers? Results from mixed poisson regression analyses . American Journal of Sociology , 103 : 1593 – 1630 .
  • Eggleston , E. P. , Laub , J. H. and Sampson , R. J. 2004 . Methodological sensitivities to latent class analysis of long-term criminal trajectories . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 20 : 1 – 26 .
  • Everitt , B. S. and Hand , D. J. 1981 . Finite mixture distributions , London : Chapman and Hall .
  • Farrington , D.P. 1986 . “ Age and crime ” . In Crime and justice: An annual review of research , Edited by: Tonry , M. and Morris , N. Vol. 7 , Chicago , IL : University of Chicago Press .
  • Fergusson , D. M. , Horwood , L. J. and Nagin , D. S. 2000 . Offending trajectories in a New Zealand birth cohort . Criminology , 38 : 525 – 552 .
  • Freedman , D. A. 1983 . A note on screening regression equations . American Statistician , 37 : 152 – 155 .
  • Gibbons , D. C. 1985 . “ The assumption of the efficacy of middle-range explanations:Typologies ” . In Theoretical models in criminology , Edited by: Meier , R.F. 151 – 174 . Beverly Hills , , CA : Sage Publications .
  • Gibson , M. and Rafter , N. H. 2006 . Criminal man , Durham : Duke University Press .
  • Gottfredson , M. R. and Hirschi , T. 1990 . A General Theory of Crime , Stanford , CA : Stanford University Press .
  • Greenberg , D. F. 1985 . Age, crime, and sociological explanation . American Journal of Sociology , 91 : 1 – 21 .
  • Greenberg , D. F. 1991 . Modeling criminal careers . Criminology , 29 : 17 – 46 .
  • Haviland , A. , Nagin , D. S. , Rosenbaum , P. R. and Tremblay , R. E. 2008 . Combining group-based trajectory modeling and propensity score matching for causal inferences in nonexperimental longitudinal data . Developmental Psychology , 44 : 422 – 436 .
  • Heckman , J. and Singer , B. 1984 . A method for minimizing the impact of distributional assumptions in econometric models for duration data . Econometrica , 52 : 271 – 320 .
  • Hirschi , T. and Gottfredson , M. R. 1983 . Age and the explanation of crime . American Journal of Sociology , 89 : 552 – 584 .
  • Laird , N. and Ware , J. 1982 . Random-effects models for longitudinal data . Biometrika , 65 : 581 – 590 .
  • Land , K. C. 1992 . Models of criminal careers: Some suggestions for moving beyond the current debate . Criminology , 30 : 149 – 155 .
  • Laub , J. H. 2010 . Nurturing the Journal of Quantitative Criminology through late childhood: Retrospective memories (distorted?) from a former editor . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 26 : 421 – 424 .
  • Laub , J. , Nagin , D. S. and Sampson , R. 1998 . Trajectories of change in criminal offending: Good marriages and the desistance process . American Sociological Review , 63 : 225 – 239 .
  • Laub , J. H. and Sampson , R. J. 2003 . Shared beginnings, divergent lives: Delinquent boys to age 70 , Cambridge , MA : Harvard University Press .
  • Maltz , M. and Mullany , J. 2000 . Visualizing lives: New pathways for analyzing life course histories . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 16 : 255 – 281 .
  • McLachlan , G. J. and Peel , D. 2000 . Finite mixture models , New York : John Wiley & Sons .
  • Moffitt , T. E. 1993 . ‘Life-course-persistent’ and ‘adolescence-limited’ antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy . Psychological Review , 100 : 674 – 701 .
  • Moffitt , T.E. 2006 . “ Life-course persistent versus adolescence-limited antisocial behavior ” . In Developmental psychopathology , 2nd ed. , Edited by: Cicchetti , D. and Cohen , D. New York : Wiley .
  • Nagin , D. S. 2005 . Group-based modeling of development , Cambridge , MA : Harvard University Press .
  • Nagin , D. S. 2010 . “ Group-based trajectory modeling: An overview ” . In Handbook of quantitative criminology , Edited by: Piquero , A. R. and Weisburd , D. New York : Springer .
  • Nagin , D. S. , Farrington , D. P. and Moffitt , T. E. 1995 . Life-course trajectories of different types of offenders . Criminology , 33 : 111 – 139 .
  • Nagin , D. S. and Land , K. C. 1993 . Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a non-parametric, mixed Poisson model . Criminology , 31 : 327 – 362 .
  • Nagin , D. S. and Tremblay , R. E. 2005 . Developmental trajectory groups: Fact or a useful statistical fiction? . Criminology , 43 : 873 – 904 .
  • Odgers , C. L. , Caspi , A. , Broadbent , J. M. , Dickson , N. , Hancox , R. J. , Harrington , H. L. , Poulton , R. , Sears , M. R. , Murray Thomson , W. and Moffitt , T. E. 2007 . Conduct problem subtypes in males predict differential adult health burden . Archives of Psychiatry , 64 : 476 – 484 .
  • Olsen , M. K. and Schafer , J. L. 2001 . A two-part random-effects model for semicontinuous longitudinal data . Journal of American Statistical Association , 96 : 730 – 745 .
  • Patterson , G. R. and Yoerger , K. 1997 . “ A developmental model for late-onset delinquency ” . In Motivation and delinquency , Edited by: Osgood , D. W. Vol. 44 , 121 – 177 . Lincoln , NE : Nebraska Symposium on Motivation .
  • Piquero , A. R. 2008 . “ Taking stock of developmental trajectories of criminal activity over the life course ” . In The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research , Edited by: Liberman , A. New York : Springer .
  • Piquero , A. R. , Brame , R. , Mazerolle , P. and Haapanen , R. 2002 . Crime in emerging adulthood . Criminology , 40 : 137 – 170 .
  • Piquero , A. R. , Farrington , D. F. , Nagin , D. S. and Moffitt , T. E. 2010 . Trajectories of offending and their relation to life failure in late middle age: Findings from the Cambridge study in delinquent development . Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency , 47 : 151 – 173 .
  • Quetelet , A. 1831 . Research on the propensity for crime at different ages , 1984 , Cincinnati , Ohio : Anderson Publishing Company .
  • Rafter , N. H. 1997 . Creating Born Criminals , Urbana : University of Illinois Press .
  • Raudenbush , S. 2001 . Comparing personal trajectories and drawing causal inferences from longitudinal data . Annual Review of Psychology , 52 : 501 – 525 .
  • Raudenbush , S. W. 2005 . How do we study “what happens next”? . Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , 602 : 131 – 144 .
  • Roeder , K. , Lynch , K. G. and Nagin , D. S. 1999 . Modeling uncertainty in latent class membership: A case study in criminology . Journal of the American Statistical Association , 94 : 766 – 776 .
  • Rowe , D. C. , Osgood , D. W. and Nicewander , W. A. 1990 . A latent trait approach to unifying criminal careers . Criminology , 28 : 237 – 70 .
  • Sampson , R. J. and Laub , J. H. 1993 . Crime in the making: Pathways and turning points through life , Cambridge , MA : Harvard University Press .
  • Sampson , R. J. and Laub , J. H. 2003 . Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70 . Criminology , 41 : 555 – 592 .
  • Sampson , R. J. and Laub , J. H. 2005a . A life-course view of the development of crime . Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , 602 : 12 – 45 .
  • Sampson , R. J. and Laub , J. H. 2005b . Seductions of method: Rejoinder to Nagin and Tremblay’s “Developmental trajectory groups: Fact or fiction?” . Criminology , 43 : 905 – 913 .
  • Sampson , R. J. , Laub , J. H. and Eggleston , E. P. 2004 . On the robustness and validity of groups . Journal of Quantitative Criminology , 30 : 37 – 42 .
  • Schwarz , G. 1978 . Estimating the dimension of a model . Annals of Statistics , 6 : 461 – 464 .
  • Shaw , C. and McKay , H. 1942 . Juvenile delinquency in urban areas , Chicago : University of Chicago Press .
  • Skardhamar , T. 2009 . Reconsidering the theory on adolescent-limited and life-course persistent anti-social behavior . British Journal of Criminology , 49 : 863 – 878 .
  • Skardhamar , T. 2010 . Distinguishing facts and artifacts in group-based modeling . Criminology , 48 : 295 – 320 .
  • Taylor , I. , Walton , P. and Young , J. 1973 . The new criminology: For a social theory of deviance , London : Routledge and Kegan Paul .
  • Tewksbury , R. and Jennings , W. G. 2010 . Assessing the impact of sex offender registration and community notification on sex-offending trajectories . Criminal Justice and Behavior , 37 : 570 – 582 .
  • Titterington , D. M. , Smith , A. F. and Makov , U. E. 1985 . Statistical analysis of finite mixture distributions , New York : Wiley .
  • Ward , J. T. , Stogner , J. , Gibson , C. L. and Akers , R. L. 2010 . A new trick for an old dog: Applying developmental trajectories to inform drug use progression . Journal of Drug Issues , 40 : 755 – 782 .
  • Wasserman , L. 2000 . Bayesian model selection and model averaging . Journal of Mathematical Psychology , 44 : 92 – 107 .
  • Weakliem , D. and Entner Wright , B. R. 2009 . Robustness of group-based models for longitudinal count data . Sociological Methods and Research , 38 : 147 – 170 .
  • Weisburd , D. , Bushway , S. , Lum , C. and Yang , S.-M. 2004 . Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle . Criminology , 42 : 283 – 322 .
  • Wolfgang , M. E. , Figlio , R. M. and Sellin , T. 1972 . Delinquency in a birth cohort , Chicago : University of Chicago Press .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.