3,836
Views
44
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Articles

Studying New York City’s Crime Decline: Methodological Issues

References

  • Anderson, T., & Hsiao, C. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 18, 47–82.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
  • Baker, A., & Goldstein, J. (2011, December 31). Police tactic: Keeping crime reports off books. New York Times, pp. A1, A20.
  • Baker, A., & Rashbaum, W. K. (2011, January 6). City police ask panel to review crime statistics. New York Times, pp. A1, A24.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data, 3rd ed.. New York, NY: Wiley.
  • The crime drop in America Blumstein A. Wallman J. Cambridge University Press New York NY 2006
  • Baumer, E. (2008). An empirical assessment of the contemporary crime trends puzzle: A modest step toward a more comprehensive research agenda. In A. S. Goldberger & R. Rosenfeld (Eds.), Understanding crime trends. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
  • Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (2000). GMM estimation with persistent panel data: An application to production functions. Econometric Reviews, 19, 321–340.
  • Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, Rev Ed ed.. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
  • Braga, A. A. (2007). The effects of hot spots policing on crime. Campbell Collaboration systematic review final report. Retrieved October 10, 2012, from http://campbellcollaboration.org/lib/download/118/
  • Bratton, W., & Knobler, P. (1998). Turnaround: How America’s top cop reversed the crime epidemic. New York, NY: Random House.
  • Bushway, S. D., & Apel, R. J. (2010). Instrumental variables in criminology and criminal justice. In A. R. Piquero & D. Weisburd (Eds.), Handbook of quantitative criminology (pp. 595–612). New York, NY: Springer.
  • Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Chauhan. P. (2011,). A review of the research literature on the New York City crime decline. Paper presented at Understanding the Crime Decline in NYC conference, John Jay College of Criminal Justice. Retrieved August 17, 2012, from www.jjay.cuny.edu/crimedecline
  • Chilton, R., & Chambliss, W. J. (2012). New York City homicide 1980–2005 and its impact on young black men. Unpublished paper.
  • Cohen, M. (2010, August 27). Voice’s NPD tapes to get a hearing by FBI officials. Village Voice. Retrieved December 28, 2011, from www.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2010/voices_nypd_tap.php
  • Cook, J., & Cook, S. (2011). Are US crime rates really unit root processes? Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27, 299–314.
  • Corman, H., & Mocan, N. (2000). A time-series analysis of crime, deterrence, and drug abuse in New York City. American Economic Review, 90, 584–604.
  • Corman, H., & Mocan, N. (2005). Carrots, sticks and broken windows. Journal of Law and Economics, 48, 235–266.
  • Donohue, J. J., III, & Levitt, S. D. (2001). The impact of legalized abortion on crime. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 379–420.
  • Dwyer, J. (2012, March 9). Telling the truth like crazy. New York Times, p. A21.
  • Eligon, J. (2012, March 22) Taking on Police Tactic, Critics Hit Racial Divide. New York Times, p. A1.
  • Ellen, I. G., & O’Regan, K. (2009). Crime and U.S. cities: Recent patterns and implications. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 626, 22–38.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. New York, NY: Wiley.
  • Eterno, J. A., & Silverman, E. B. (2012). The crime numbers game: Management by manipulation. New York, NY: CRC Press.
  • Fagan, J. (2008). Crime and community change. In A. S. Goldberger & R. Rosenfeld (Eds.), Understanding crime trends. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
  • Fagan, J., & Davies, G. (2000). Street stops and broken windows: Terry, race and disorder in New York City. Fordham Urban Law Journal, 28, 457–504.
  • Fajnzylber, P., Lederman, D., & Loayza, N. (2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46, 1323–1357.
  • Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Tseloni, A., & Mailley, J. (2010). Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 12, 24–41.
  • Fisher, F. M., & Nagin, D. (1978). On the feasibility of identifying the crime function in a simultaneous model of crime rates and sanction levels. In A. Blumstein, J. Cohen & D. Nagin (Eds.), Deterrence and incapacitation: Estimating the effects of criminal sanctions on crime rates. Washington, DC: National Academy of Science.
  • Franses, P. H. (1998). Time series models for business and economic forecasting. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • Gardiner, S. (2012, February 14). Stop-and-frisks hit record in 2012. Wall Street Journal, pp. A1, A23.
  • Gelman, A., Fagan, J., & Kiss, A. (2007). An analysis of the NYPD’s stop-and-frisk policy in the context of claims of racial bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 813–823.
  • Goertzel, T., & Kahn, T. (2009). The Great Såo Paolo homicide drop. Homicide Studies, 13, 398–410.
  • Goldstein, J., & Ruderman, W. (2012, August 3). Police stops in New York drop by 34%. New York Times, pp. A1, A14.
  • Gonzalez, J. (2012, February 29). Stop-and-abuse: Unfair, ineffective NYPD frisk policy has to change, sez coalition. Daily News, p. 9.
  • Greenberg, D. F. (2001). The time series analysis of crime rates. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17, 291–327.
  • Greenberg, D. F., & Kessler, R. (1977). Crime deterrence research and social policy. In S. Nagel (Ed.), Modeling the Criminal Justice System. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
  • Greenberg, D. F., & Phillips, J. A. (2012). Hierarchical linear modeling of growth curve trajectories using HLM. In J. D. Garson (Ed.), Hierarchical linear modeling: Guide and applications. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
  • Halaby, C. N. (2004). Panel models in sociological research: Theory and practice. Annual Review of Sociology, 30, 507–544.
  • Hale, C. (1998). Crime and the business cycle in post-war Britain revisited. British Journal of Criminology, 38, 681–698.
  • Harcourt, B. E., & Ludwig, J. (2006). Broken windows: New evidence from New York City and a five-city social experiment. University of Chicago Law Review, 73, 271–320.
  • Jenkins, H. W; Jr. (2011, March 12). The man who defined deviancy up. Wall Street Journal.
  • Judson, R. A., & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: A guide for macroeconomists. Economics Letters, 65, 9–15.
  • Karmen, A. (2000). The true story behind the crime crash of the 1990s. New York, NY: New York University Press.
  • Kelling, G. L., & Sousa, W. H., Jr. (2001). Do police matter? An analysis of the impact of New York City’s police reforms. New York, NY: Manhattan Institute Center for Civic Innovation Civic Report No. 22.
  • Kelling, G. L., & Wilson, J. Q. (1992, March). Broken windows: The police and neighborhood safety. The Atlantic. Retrieved June 10, 2012, from http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/4465
  • Kessler, R. C., & Greenberg, D. F. (1981). Linear panel analysis: Models of quantitative change. New York, NY: Academic Press.
  • Kleck, G., Kovandzic, T., & Schaffer, M. E. (2012). Gun prevalence, homicide rates and causality: A GMM approach to endogeneity bias. In D. Gadd, S. Karstedt & S. F. Messner (Eds.), The Sage handbook of criminological research methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
  • Kovandzic, T. V., Vieraitis, L. M., & Boots, D. P. (2009). Does the death penalty save lives? New evidence from state panel data, 1971 to 2006. Criminology & Public Policy, 8, 803–843.
  • Kubrin, C. E., & Herting, J. R. (2003). Neighborhood correlates of homicide trends: An analysis using growth-curve modeling. Sociological Quarterly, 44, 329–350.
  • Kubrin, C. E., Messner, S. F., Deane, G., McGeever, K., & Stucky, T. D. (2010). Proactive policing and robbery rates across US cities. Criminology, 48, 57–97.
  • Lauritsen, J. L., Oliver, B. E., Schaum, R. J., & Rosenfeld, R. (2008). Crime and victimization in the New York metropolitan area, 1980–2003: Comparing victims’ reports of crime to police estimates. Retrieved December 28, 2011, from www.crimetrends.com/id8.html
  • Lee, M., Martinez, R., Jr, & Rosenfeld, R. (2001). Does immigration increase homicide? Negative evidence from three border cities. Sociological Quarterly, 42, 559–580.
  • Marvell, T. B., & Moody, C. E. (1996). Specification problems, police levels, and crime rates. Criminology, 34, 609–646.
  • McCall, P. L., Parker, K. F., & McDonald, J. M. (2008). The dynamic relationship between homicide rates and social, economic, and political factors from 1970 to 2000. Social Science Research, 37, 721–735.
  • McCleary, R., & Hay, R. (1980). Applied time series analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
  • Messner, S. F., Galea, S., Tardiff, K. J., Tracy, M., Bucciarelli, A. A., Piper, T. M., …, & Vlahov, D. (2007). Policing, drugs, and the homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Social Problems, 56, 447–473.
  • Mills, T. C. (1990). Time series techniques for economists. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  • New York Civil Liberties Union. (2012). Stop and frisk campaign: About the issue. Retrieved June 11, 2012, http://www.nyclu.org/issues/racial-justice/stop-and-frisk-practices
  • Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrics, 49, 1417–1426.
  • Ouimet, M. (2002). Explaining the American and Canadian crime “drop” in the 1990s. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 44, 33–50.
  • Ousey, G. C., & Kubrin, C. E. (2009). Exploring the connection between immigration and violent crime rates in US cities, 1980–2000. Social Problems, 56, 447–473.
  • Ousey, G. C., & Lee, M. R. (2004). Investigating the connections between race, illicit drug markets, and lethal violence, 1984–1997. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43, 230–260.
  • Ousey, G. C., Wilcox, P., & Brummel, S. (2008). Déjà vu all over again: Investigating temporal continuity of adolescent victimization. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24, 307–335.
  • Parker, K. F. (2008). Unequal crime decline: Theorizing race, urban inequality & criminal value. New York, NY: New York University Press.
  • Phillips, J. A. (2006). The relationship between age structure and homicide rates in the United States, 1970–1999. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43, 230–260.
  • Phillips, J. A., & Greenberg, D. F. (2008). A comparison of methods for analyzing criminological panel data. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 23, 51–72.
  • Poston, B. (2012, May 22). Hundreds of assault cases misreported by Milwaukee Police Department: City’s violent crime rate lowered based on faulty data. Journal Sentinal. Retrieved June 12, 2012, from http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/watchdogreports/hundreds-of-assault-cases-misreported-by-milwaukee-police-department-v44ce4p-152862135.html
  • Raphael, S., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2001). Identifying the effects of unemployment on crime. Journal of Law and Economics, 44, 259–283.
  • Rayman, G. (2012, March 3-March 7). The NYPD tapes confirmed. The Village Voice, pp. 11-16.
  • Reyes, J. W. (2007). Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime. The B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis, 7, 1–41.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9, 86–136.
  • Rosenfeld, R. (2004, February). The case of the unsolved crime decline. Scientific American , pp. 82-89.
  • Rosenfeld, R. (2009). Crime is the problem: Homicide, acquisitive crime, and economic conditions. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25, 287–306.
  • Rosenfeld, R., & Fornango, R. (2012). The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003 – 2010. Justice Quarterly. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/07418825.2012.712152.
  • Rosenfeld, R., Fornango, R., & Baumer, E. (2005). Do Ceasefire, Compstat, and Exile reduce homicide? Criminology and Public Policy, 4, 419–450.
  • Rosenfeld, R., Fornango, R., & Rengifo, A. (2007). The impact of order-maintenance policing on New York City homicide and robbery rates, 1988–2001. Criminology, 45, 355–384.
  • Silverman, E. B. (1996, December 15). Mapping change: How the New York City police department reengineered itself to drive down crime. Law Enforcement News. Retrieved March 17, 2012, from www.lib.jjay.cuny.edu/len/96/15dec/html/12.html
  • Silverman, E. B. (1999). NYPD Battles Crime: Innovative Strategies in Policing. Boston, MA: Northeastern University Press.
  • Spitzer, E. (1999). The New York City Police Department’s “stop and frisk” practices: A report to the people of the State of New York. Office of the New York State Attorney General. Retrieved June 8, 2012, from http://www.ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/pdfs/bureaus/civil_rights/stp_frsk.pdf
  • Stoudtt, B. G., Fine, M., & Fox, M. (2011/12). Growing up policed in the age of aggressive policing policies. New York Law School. 56, 1331–70.
  • Taylor, K. (2012, June 11). Stop-and-frisk policy “saves-lives”, mayor tells black congregation. New York Times, p. A14.
  • The Economist. (2012, Aug. 25). America’s safer streets: The great crime decline continues. No one is sure why. The Economist. Retrieved from www.economist.com/node/21560870/print
  • Verbeek, M. (2012). A guide to modern econometrics, 4th ed.. New York, NY: Wiley.
  • Wawro, G. (2002). Estimating dynamic panel data models in political science. Political Analysis, 10, 25–47.
  • Weisburd, D., Bushway, S., Lum, C., & Yang, S.-M. (2004). Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle. Criminology, 42, 283–318.
  • Weisburd, D., Mastrofski, S., McNally, A. M., Greenspan, R., & Willis, J. (2003). Reforming to preserve: CompStat and strategic planning in American policing. Criminology & Public Policy, 2, 421–456.
  • Weiss, M. (2012, June 5). Stop-and-frisks have done little to reduce shootings, NYPD data show. Retrieved October 12, 2012, from http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20120605/new-york-city/stop-and-frisks-have-done-little-reduce-shootings-nypd-data-shows
  • Wendel, T. (2011). “More drugs, less crime”: Why crime dropped in New York City and the US, 1981–2007. Paper presented at the Understanding the Crime Decline in NYC conference, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY.
  • Willis, J. J., Mastrofsky, S. D., & Weisburd, D. (2003). Compstat in practice: An in-depth analysis of three cities. Washington, DC: Police Foundation.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach, 2nd ed.. Mason, OH: Thomson.
  • Worrall, J. L., & Kovandzic, T. V. (2010). Police levels and crime rates: An instrumental variables approach. Social Science Research., 39, 506–516.
  • Xie, M. (2011). Area differences and time trends in crime reporting: Comparing New York and other metropolitan areas. Paper presented at the Understanding the Crime Decline in NYC Conference, John Jay College of Criminal Justice. Retrieved October 10, 2012, from www.jjay.cuny.edu/crimedecline
  • Zimring, F. E. (2012). The city that became safe: New York’s lessons for urban crime and its Control. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.