References
- Arceneaux, K. & Nickerson, D.W. (2009) Modeling certainty with clustered data: a comparison of methods, Political Analysis, 17(2), pp. 177–190. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpp004
- Brüggen, E., Van den Brakel, J. & Krosnick, J. (2016) Establishing the Accuracy of Online Panels for Survey, CBS Discussion Paper, No. 4, available at: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/background/2016/15/establishing-the-accuracy-of-online-panels-for-survey-research (accessed 16 May 2016).
- Cantu, F., Hoyo, V. & Morales, M.A. (2015) The utility of unpacking survey bias in multiparty elections: Mexican polling firms in the 2006 and 2012 presidential elections, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, available at: http://ijpor.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1093/ijpor/edv004.
- Crespi, I. (1988) Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error (New York: Russell Sage Foundation).
- Fisher, S.D., Ford, R., Jennings, W., Pickup, M. & Wlezien, C. (2011) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2010 British general election, Electoral Studies, 30(2), pp. 250–257. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005
- Hanretty, C., Lauderdale, B. & Vivyan, N. (2016) Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting, Electoral Studies, 41(March), pp. 239–243. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
- Hobolt, S.B. & Klemmensen, R. (2008) Government responsiveness and political competition in comparative perspective, Comparative Political Studies, 41(3), pp. 309–337. doi: 10.1177/0010414006297169
- ISSDA. (2015) Opinion Poll Data, available at: https://www.ucd.ie/issda/data/opinionpolldata/.
- Jackman, S. (2005) Pooling the polls over an election campaign, Australian Journal of Political Science, 40(4), pp. 499–517. doi: 10.1080/10361140500302472
- King, G., Keohane, R.O. & Verba, S. (1994) Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press).
- Kish, L. (1957) Confidence intervals for clustered samples, American Sociological Review, 22(2), p. 154. doi: 10.2307/2088852
- Lago, I., Guinjoan, M. & Bermúdez, S. (2015) Regulating disinformation, Public Opinion Quarterly, available at: http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/lookup/doi/10.1093/poq/nfv036.
- Marsh, M. (2006) Irish Opinion Poll Archive, available at: http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/IOPA/.
- Marsh, M. & McElroy, G. (2003) Why the opinion polls got it wrong in 2002, in: M. Gallagher, M. Marsh & P. Mitchell (Eds.) How Ireland Voted 2002, pp. 159–159 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
- Marsh, M. & Mikhaylov, S. (2012) Economic voting in a crisis: the Irish election of 2011, Electoral Studies, 31(3), pp. 478–484. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.010
- McElroy, G. & Marsh, M. (2008) The polls: a clear improvement, in: M. Gallagher & M. Marsh (Ed.) How Ireland Voted 2007, pp. 132–132 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
- Mellon, J. & Prosser, C. (2015) Why Did the Polls Go Wrong?, available at: http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-did-the-polls-go-wrong-by-jon-mellon-and-chris-prosser/.
- Pickup, M. & Hobolt, S.B. (2015) The conditionality of the trade-off between government responsiveness and effectiveness: the impact of minority status and polls in the Canadian house of commons, Electoral Studies, available at: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0261379415001444.
- Pickup, M., Scott Matthews, J., Jennings, W., Ford, R. & Fisher, S.D. (2011) Why did the polls overestimate liberal democrat support? Sources of polling error in the 2010 British general election, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 21(2), pp. 179–209. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2011.563309
- Plümmer, M. (2013) JAGS: Just Another Gibbs Sampler, available at: http://mcmc-jags.sourceforge.net/.
- Silver, N. (2012) The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction (London: Allen Lane).
- Soroka, S.N. & Wlezien, C. (2010) Degrees of Democracy Politics, Public Opinion, and Policy (New York: Cambridge University Press).
- Squire, P. (1988) Why the 1936 literary digest poll failed, Public Opinion Quarterly, 52(1), p. 125. doi: 10.1086/269085
- van der Meer, T.W.G., Hakhverdian, A. & Aaldering, L. (2015) Off the fence, onto the bandwagon? A large-scale survey experiment on effect of real-life poll outcomes on subsequent vote intentions, International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 51(4), pp. 769–784.
- Walther, D. (2015) Picking the winner(s): forecasting elections in multiparty systems, Electoral Studies, 40, pp. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.06.003