Lessons Learned from the CIA's Assessment of the Soviet Economy

REFERENCES

• See Kristen Lundberg, CIA and the Fall of the Soviet Empire; The Politics of “Getting It Right” (Cambridge, MA: John F. Kennedy School of Government, 1994).
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• See, for example, Noel Firth and James Noren, Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950–1990 (College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 1998); and James Noren, “CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Economy,” in Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, eds., Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence [CIA], 2001).
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• As presented in Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence [CIA], 1999); Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011); and Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005); among others.
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• The main printed document collections are: Benjamin B. Fischer, ed., At Cold War's End: US Intelligence on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 1989–1991 (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence [CIA], 1999); Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, eds., CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991 (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence [CIA], 2001); Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, Watching the Bear; and Donald P. Steury, ed., Intentions and Capabilities: Estimates on Soviet Strategic Forces, 1950–1985 (Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence [CIA], 1996).
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• http://www.foia.cia.gov and http://www.fas.org/issues/government-secrecy
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• Sherman Kent Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1949), pp. 155–156.
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• James Noren “CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union,” pp. 18–26.
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• Noel Firth and James Noren Soviet Defense Spending.
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• James Noren “CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union,” pp. 45–52.
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• Ibid., pp. 31–32.
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• Ibid., pp. 30–31.
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• SE-16, 1951; Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991, pp. 33–34.
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• CIA/RR 53, 1954; Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991, p. 174.
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• NIE 11-4-60, 1960; Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, p. 142.
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• Robert M. Gates From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider's Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), pp. 36–37, 173.
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• NIE 11-11-64, 1964; Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, p. 159.
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• NIE 11-8-68, 1968; Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, p. 242.
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• Robert M. Gates, From the Shadows, p. 116.
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• NIE 11-3/8-76, 1976; Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, pp. 359, 361.
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• Robert M. Gates From the Shadows, pp. 184–187.
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• ER 77-10436U, 1977; Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991, p. 207.
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• NIE 11-4-7, 1978, Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, p. 403.
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• NIE 11-8-82, 1982; Donald P. Steury, Intentions and Capabilities, p. 479.
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• SOVA Research Paper, 1982; Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991, pp. 108, 110.
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• Robert M. Gates From the Shadows, p. 317.
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• Intelligence Assessment, 1987; Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947–1991, pp. 111–112.
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• NIE 11-23-88, 1988; Benjamin B. Fischer, At Cold War's End, pp. 3–4.
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• SOV 89-10077, 1989; Benjamin B. Fischer, At Cold War's End, p. 29.
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• NIE 11-18-89, 1989; Benjamin B. Fischer, At Cold War's End, p. 53.
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• Robert M. Gates From the Shadows, pp. 386–398.
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• NIE 11-18-90, 1990; Benjamin B. Fischer, At Cold War's End, p. 87.
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• NIE 11-18-91, 1991; Benjamin B. Fischer, At Cold War's End, p. 124.
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• Raymond L. Garthoff “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities,” in Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett eds., Watching the Bear, pp. 139–148.
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• See Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment.
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• James Noren “CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union,” pp. 35–36; Raymond L. Garthoff, “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities,” pp. 175–179.
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• Raymond L. Garthoff “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities,” p. 173.
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• Robert M. Gates From the Shadows, pp. 173, 177.
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