SECOND THOUGHTS ABOUT EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT: REPLY TO THE SYMPOSIUM

References

• Bueno de Mesquita , Bruce. 2009 . The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future . New York : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Bueno de Mesquita , Bruce. 2010 . “Judging Judgment.” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 355 - 88 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Buturovic , Zeljka. 2010 . “Putting Political Experts to the Test.” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 389 - 96 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Caplan , Bryan. 2007 . “Have the Experts Been Weighed, Measured, and Found Wanting?” Critical Review 19 ( 1 ): 81 - 91 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dawes , Robyn M. , David Faust , and Paul E. Meehl 1989 . “Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.” Science 243 : 1668 - 74 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fuller , Steve. 2010 . “Thinking the Unthinkable as a Radical Scientific Project.” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 397 - 413 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gawande , Atul. 2010 . The checklist Manifesto . London : Profile Books .
   Google Scholar
• Gilovich , Thomas , Dale Griffin , and Daniel Kahneman. 2002 . Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment . New York : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ionnidis , John. 2005 . “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.” PLoS Med 2 ( 8 ): e124 . doi: doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
   Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert. 1976 . Perception and Misperception in International Politics . Princeton : Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Jervis , Robert. 2010 . Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons From the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War . Ithaca, N.Y. : Cornell University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Keil , Frank. 2010 . “When and Why do Hedgehogs Differ?” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 415 - 26 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Krause , Elliott A. 1999 . Death of the Guilds: Professions, States, and the Advance of Capitalism, 1930 to the Present . New Haven : Yale University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Lustick , Ian S. 2010 . “Tetlock and Counterfactuals: Saving Methodological Ambition from Empirical Findings.” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 427 - 47 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mellers , Barbara , Ralph Hertwig , and Daniel Kahneman 2001 . “Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration.” Psychological Science 12 : 269 - 75 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Neustadt , Richard E. , and Ernest R. May . 1986 . Thinking in Time . New York : Free Press .
   Google Scholar
• Quirk , Paul J. “The Trouble with Experts.” Critical Review 22 ( 4 ): 449 - 65
   Google Scholar
• Redding , Richard E. 2001 . “Sociopolitical Diversity in Psychology: The Case for Pluralism.” American Psychologist 56 : 205 - 15 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Surowiecki , James. 2004 . The Wisdom of the Crowd . Boston, Mass. : Little, Brown .
   Google Scholar
• Taleb , Nassim N. 2006 . The Black Swan . New York : Random House .
   Google Scholar
• Tetlock , Philip E. 2002 . “Social-Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor . Psychological Review 109 : 451 - 72 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tetlock , Philip E. 2005 . Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Tetlock , Philip E. 2009 . “Playing Tarot on K Street.” The National Interest ( September-October ): 57 - 67 .
   Google Scholar
• Tetlock , Philip E. , and Aaron Belkin 1996 . Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics . Princeton : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Tetlock Philip E. , and Mellers B. 2011 . “Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns.” In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis , Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education . Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press .
   Google Scholar
• Tetlock , Philip E. , Richard Ned Lebow , and Geoffrey Parker 2006 . Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History . Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press .
   Google Scholar
• Tversky , Amos , and Kahneman , Daniel. 1983 . “Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy and Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review 90 : 293 - 315 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wilensky , Harold L. 1964 . “The Professionalization of Everyone?” The American Journal of Sociology 70 ( 2 ) ( September ): 137 - 58 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar