Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective

References

• Angulo , C. , Rötter , R. P. , Lock , R. , Enders , A. , Fronzek , S. and Ewert , F. 2013 . Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , 170 : 32 – 46 . doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.11.017
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asseng , S. , Ewert , F. , Rosenzweig , C. , Jones , J. W. , Hatfield , J. L. , Ruane , A. , Boote , K. J. , Thorburn , P. , Rötter , R. P. , Cammarano , D. , Aggarwal , P. K. , Angulo , C. , Basso , B. , Bertuzzi , P. , Biernath , C. , Brisson , N. , Challinor , A. J. , Doltra , J. , Gayler , S. , Goldberg , R. , Grant , R. , Heng , L. , Hooker , J. , Hunt , L. A. , Ingwersen , J. , Izaurralde , R. C. , Kersebaum , K. C. , Martre , M. , Müller , C. , Naresh Kumar , S. , Nendel , C. , O'Leary , G. , Olesen , J. E. , Osborne , T. M. , Palosuo , T. , Priesack , E. , Ripoche , D. , Semenov , M. A. , Shcherbak , I. , Steduto , P. , Stöckle , C. , Stratonovitch , P. , Streck , T. , Supit , I. , Tao , F. , Travasso , M. , Waha , K. , Wallach , W. , White , J. W. , Williams , J. R. & Wolf , J. 2013 . Quantifying uncertainties in simulating wheat yields under climate change . Nature Climate Change ( in press ).
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Asseng , S. , Foster , I. and Turner , N. C. 2011 . The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields . Global Change Biology , 17 : 997 – 1012 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Battisti , D. S. and Naylor , R. L. 2009 . Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat . Science , 323 : 240 – 244 . doi: 10.1126/science.1164363
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boberg , F. and Christensen , J. H. 2012 . Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies . Nature Climate Change , 2 : 433 – 436 . doi: 10.1038/nclimate1454
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boons-Prins , E. R. , de Koning , G. H. J. & van Diepen , C. A. 1993 . Crop specific simulation parameters for yield forecasting across the European community . Simulation Reports CABO-TT, no. 32 , Wageningen , , The Netherlands .
   Google Scholar
• Børgesen , C. D. and Olesen , J. E. 2011 . A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Europe . Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences , 11 : 2541 – 2553 . doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-2541-2011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carter , T. R. , Fronzek , S. , Pirttioja , N. & Rötter , R. P. 2012 . Probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields . Poster presented at the international conference: Planet under Pressure: New Knowledge Towards Solutions , March 26–29 , London , UK .
   Google Scholar
• Challinor , A. J. , Stafford Smith , M. and Thornton , P. 2012 . Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , 170 : 2 – 7 . doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Challinor , A. J. , Wheeler , T. , Hemming , D. and Upadhyaya , H. D. 2009 . Ensemble yield simulations: Crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change . Climate Research , 38 : 117 – 127 . doi: 10.3354/cr00779
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christensen , J. H. , Hewitson , B. , Busuioc , A. , Chen , A. , Gao , X. , Held , I. , Jones , R. , Kolli , R. K. , Kwon , W.-T. , Laprise , R. , Rueda , V. M. , Mearns , L. , Menendez , C. G. , Räisänen , J. , Rinke , A. , Sarr , A. and Whetton , P. 2007 . “ Regional climate projections ” . In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , Edited by: Solomon , S. , Quin , D. , Manning , M. , Chen , Z. , Marquis , M. , Averyt , K. B. , Tignor , M. and Miller , H. L. 847 – 940 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Coumou , D. and Rahmsdorf , S. 2012 . A decade of weather extremes . Nature Climate Change , 2 : 491 – 496 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davis , S. J. and Caldeira , K. 2010 . Consumption-based accounting for CO2 emissions . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA , 104 : 19703 – 19708 .
   Google Scholar
• Déqué , M. , Somot , S. , Sanchez-Gomez , E. , Goodess , C. M. , Jacob , D. , Lenderink , G. and Christensen , O. B. 2011 . The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: Regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability . Climate Dynamics , 38 : 951 – 964 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Easterling , W. E. , Aggarwal , P. K. , Batima , P. , Brander , K. M. , Erda , L. , Howden , S. M. , Kirilenko , A. , Morton , J. , Soussana , J.-F. , Schmidhuber , J. and Tubiello , F. N. 2007 . “ Food, fibre, and forest products ” . In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , Edited by: Parry , M. L. , Canziani , O. F. , Palutikof , J. P. , van der Linden , P. J. and Hanson , C. E. 273 – 313 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ewert , F. , Rounsevell , M. D. A. , Reginster , I. , Metzger , M. J. and Leemans , R. 2005 . Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. I. Estimating changes in crop productivity . Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , 107 : 101 – 116 . doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ewert , F. , van Ittersum , M. K. , Heckelei , T. , Therond , O. , Bezlepkina , I. and Andersen , E. 2011 . Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems . Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment , 142 : 6 – 17 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fischer , E. M. and Knutti , R. 2013 . Robust projections of combined humidity and temperature extremes . Nature Climate Change , 3 : 126 – 130 . doi: 10.1038/nclimate1682
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fischer , G. , Shah , M. , Tubiello , F. N. and van Velthuizen , H. 2005 . Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990–2080 . Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B , 360 : 2067 – 2083 . doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fronzek , S. , Carter , T. R. , Räisänen , J. , Ruokolainen , L. and Luoto , M. 2010 . Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: A case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia . Climatic Change , 99 : 515 – 534 . doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9679-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Godfray , H. C. J. , Beddington , J. R. , Crute , I. R. , Haddad , L. , Lawrence , D. , Muir , J. F. , Pretty , J. , Robinson , S. , Thomas , S. M. and Toulmin , C. 2010 . Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people . Science , 327 : 812 – 818 . doi: 10.1126/science.1185383
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gornall , J. , Betts , R. , Burke , E. , Clark , R. , Camp , J. , Willett , K. and Wiltshire , A. 2010 . Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century . Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , 365 : 2973 – 2989 . doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0158
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harris , G. R. , Collins , M. , Sexton , D. M. H. , Murphy , J. M. and Booth , B. B. B. 2010 . Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate . Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci , 10 : 2009 – 2020 . doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harrison , P. and Butterfield , R. E. 1996 . Effects of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity . Climate Research , 7 : 225 – 241 . doi: 10.3354/cr007225
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hermans , C. M. I. , Geijzendorffer , L. R. , Ewert , F. , Metzger , M. J. , Vereijken , P. H. , Woltjer , C. B. and Verhagen , A. 2010 . Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalized market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competiveness . Ecological Modelling , 221 ( 18 ) : 2177 – 2187 . doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.03.021
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hillel , D. & Rosenzweig , C. 2013 . Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems. Global and Regional Aspects and Implications – Joint Publication with the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America London , Imperial College Press , 301
   Google Scholar
• IAASTD 2009 . Agriculture at a Crossroads. International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), Volume IV: Northern America and Europe (NAE) Report. Chapter 5: De Lattre-Gasquet et al ., Looking into the Future of knowledge, science and technology and AKST . B. D. McIntyre et al. . Island Press , Washington , DC , 151 – 207 .
   Google Scholar
• Iizumi , T. , Yokozawa , M. and Nishimori , M. 2011 . Probabilistic evaluation of climate change impacts on paddy rice productivity in Japan . Climatic Change , 107 : 391 – 415 . doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9990-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC 2007 . Climate change 2007 . The Physical Science Basis Cambridge , Cambridge University Press , 996
   Google Scholar
• Knutti , R. 2010 . The end of model democracy? . Climatic Change , 102 : 395 – 404 . doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9800-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leclère , D. , Jayet , P-A. and de Noblet-Ducoudre , N. 2013 . Farm-level autonomous adaptation of European agricultural supply to climate change . Ecological Economics , 87 : 1 – 14 . doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lobell , D. B. , Burke , M. B. , Tebaldi , C. , Mastrandrea , M. D. , Falcon , W. P. and Naylor , R. L. 2008 . Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 . Science , 319 : 607 – 610 . doi: 10.1126/science.1152339
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lobell , D. B. , Schlenker , W. and Costa-Roberts , J. 2011 . Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 . Science , 333 : 616 – 620 . doi: 10.1126/science.1204531
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lobell , D. B. , Sibley , A. and Ortiz-Monasterio , J. I. 2012 . Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India . Nature Climate Change , 2 : 186 – 189 . doi: 10.1038/nclimate1356
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meehl , G. A. , Covey , C. , Delworth , T. , Latif , M. , McAvaney , B. , Mitchell , J. F. B. , Stouffer , R. J. and Taylor , K. E. 2007 . The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 88 : 1383 – 1394 . doi: 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moss , R. H. , Edmonds , J. A. , Hibbard , K. A. , Manning , M. R. , Rose , S. K. , van Vuuren , D. P. , Carter , T. R. , Emori , S. , Kainuma , M. , Kram , T. , Meehl , G. A. , Mitchell , J. F. B. , Nakicenovic , N. , Riahi , K. , Smith , S. J. , Stouffer , R. J. , Thomson , A. M. , Weyant , J. P. and Wilbanks , T. J. 2010 . The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment . Nature , 463 : 747 – 756 . doi: 10.1038/nature08823
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nakicenovic , N. , Alcamo , J. , Davis , G. , Davis , J. , de Fries , G. , Fenhann , B. , Gaffin , J. , Gregory , S. , Grubler , K. , Jung , A. , Kram , T. , La Rovere , E. L. , Michaelis , L. , Mori , S. , Morita , T. , Pepper , W. , Pitcher , H. , Price , L. , Raihi , K. , Roehrl , A. , Rogner , H.-H. , Sankovski , A. , Schlesinger , M. , Shukla , P. , Smith , S. , Swart , R. , von Rooijen , S. , Victor , N. and Dadi , Z. 2000 . Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 599 Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Nelson , G. C. , Rosegrant , M. W. , Koo , J. , Robertson , R. , Sulser , T. , Zhu , T. , Ringler , C. , Msangi , S. , Palazzo , A. , Batka , M. , Magalhaes , M. , Valmonte-Santos , R. , Ewing , M. & Lee , D. 2009 . Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation . IFPRI Food Policy Report , Washington , DC , 30
   Google Scholar
• Olesen , J. E. , Carter , T. R. , Diaz-Ambrona , C. H. , Fronzek , S. , Heidmann , T. , Hickler , T. , Holt , T. , Minguez , M. I. , Morales , P. , Palutikof , J. P. , Quemada , M. , Ruiz-Ramos , M. , Rubæk , G. H. , Sau , F. , Smith , B. and Sykes , M. T. 2007 . Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models . Climatic Change , 81 : 123 – 143 . doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Olesen , J. E. , Trnka , M. , Kersebaum , C.-K. , Skjelvag , A. O. , Seguin , B. , Peltonen-Sainio , P. , Rossi , F. , Kozyra , J. and Micale , F. 2011 . Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change . European Journal of Agronomy , 34 : 96 – 112 . doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2010.11.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Osborne , T. , Rose , G. and Wheeler , T. 2013 . Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation . Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , 170 : 183 – 194 . doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Palosuo , T. , Kersebaum , K.-C. , Angulo , C. , Hlavinka , P. , Moriondo , M. , Olesen , J. E. , Patil , R. H. , Ruget , F. , Rumbaur , C. , Takáč , J. , Trnka , M. , Bindi , M. , Çaldağ , B. , Ewert , F. , Ferrise , R. , Mirschel , W. , Şaylan , L. , Šiška , B. and Rötter , R. P. 2011 . Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: A comparison of eight crop growth models . European Journal of Agronomy , 35 : 103 – 114 . doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2011.05.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Parry , M. L. , Rosenzweig , C. , Iglesias , A. , Livermore , M. and Fischer , G. 2004 . Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios . Global Environmental Change , 14 ( 1 ) : 53 – 67 . doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peltonen-Sainio , P. , Jauhiainen , L. and Hakala , K. 2009 . Climate change and prolongation of growing season: Changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland . Agricultural Food Science , 18 : 171 – 190 . doi: 10.2137/145960609790059479
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peters , G. P. , Andrew , R. M. , Boden , T. , Canadell , J. G. , Ciais , P. , Le Quéré , C. , Marland , G. , Raupach , M. R. and Wilson , C. 2013 . The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C . Nature Climate Change , 3 : 4 – 6 . doi: 10.1038/nclimate1783
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Porter , J. R. , Soussana , J. , Fereres , E. , Long , S. P. , Mohren , F. G. M. J. , Pandya-Lorch , R. , Peltonen-Sainio , P. , Rosswall , T. & Von Braun , J. 2013 . European perspectives: An agronomic science plan for food security in a changing climate . In D. Hillel & C. Rosenzweig Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems. Global and Regional Aspects and Implications . London , Imperial College Press , 73 – 84 .
   Google Scholar
• Räisänen , J. & Räty , O. 2012 . Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: Cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations . Climate Dynamics . doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1515-9 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reilly , J. , Stone , P. H. , Forest , C. E. , Webster , M. D. , Jacoby , H. D. and Prinn , R. G. 2001 . Climate change - Uncertainty and climate change assessments . Science , 293 : 430 – 433 . doi: 10.1126/science.1062001
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Reyer , C. P. O. , Leuzinger , S. , Rammig , A. , Wolf , A. , Bartholomeus , R. P. , Bonfante , A. , de Lorenzi , F. , Dury , M. , Gloning , P. , Abou Jaoude , R. , Klein , T. , Kuster , T. M. , Martins , M. , Niedrist , G. , Riccardi , M. , Wohlfahrt , G. , de Angelis , P. , de Dato , G. , Francois , L. , Menzel , A. and Pereira , M. 2013 . A plant's perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability . Global Change Biology , 19 : 75 – 89 . doi: 10.1111/gcb.12023
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. & van Diepen , C. A. 1994 . Rhine Basin Study . 2 , Climate change impact on crop yield potentials and water use . SC-DLO, Report, 85.2 , Wageningen and Lelystad , Netherlands , 145
   Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. and van de Geijn , S. C. 1999 . Climate change effects on plant growth, crop yield and livestock . Climatic Change , 43 : 651 – 681 . doi: 10.1023/A:1005541132734
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. , Carter , T. R. , Olesen , J. E. and Porter , J. R. 2011a . Crop-climate models need an overhaul . Nature Climate Change , 1 : 175 – 177 . doi: 10.1038/nclimate1152
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. , Palosuo , T. , Pirttioja , N. K. , Dubrovsky , M. , Salo , T. , Fronzek , S. , Aikasalo , R. , Ristolainen , A. and Carter , T. R. 2011b . What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4°C? A model-based assessment . European Journal of Agronomy , 35 : 205 – 214 . doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2011.06.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. , Palosuo , T. , Kersebaum , K.-C. , Angulo , C. , Bindi , M. , Ewert , F. , Ferrise , R. , Hlavinka , P. , Moriondo , M. , Olesen , J. E. , Takáč , J. and Trnka , M. 2012 . Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models . Field Crops Research , 125 : 129 – 138 . doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.09.009
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rötter , R. P. , Höhn , J. , Trnka , M. , Fronzek , S. , Salo , T. , Carter , T. R. & Kahiluoto , H. 2013 . Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change . Global Change Biology (submitted).
   Google Scholar
• Rosenberg , N. 1993 . A methodology called ‘mink’ for study of climate change impacts and responses on the regional scale . Climatic Change , 24 ( 1–2 ) : 1 – 6 . doi: 10.1007/BF01091474
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosenzweig , C. and Parry , M. L. 1994 . Potential impact of climate change on world food supply . Nature , 367 : 133 – 138 . doi: 10.1038/367133a0
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rosenzweig , C. , Jones , J. W. , Hatfield , J. L. , Ruane , R. C. , Boote , K. J. , Thorburn , P. , Antle , J. M. , Nelson , G. C. , Porter , C. , Janssen , S , Asseng , S. , Basso , B. , Ewert , F. , Wallach , D. , Baigorria , G. and Winter , J. M. 2013 . The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies. Special Issue . Agricultural Forestry and Meteorology , 170 : 166 – 182 . 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rummukainen , M. 2010 . State-of-the-art with regional climate models . WIREs Climate Change , 1 : 82 – 96 . doi: 10.1002/wcc.8
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schmidhuber , J. and Tubiello , F. 2007 . Global food security under climate change . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA , 104 : 19703 – 19708 . doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701976104
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Semenov , M. A. and Barrow , E. M. 1997 . Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios . Climate Change , 35 : 397 – 414 . doi: 10.1023/A:1005342632279
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Semenov , M. A. and Shewry , P. R. 2011 . Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe . Scientific Reports , 1 : 66 doi: 10.1038/srep00066
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sloth Madsen , M. , Fox Maule , C. , MacKellar , N. , Olesen , J. E. and Hesselbjerg Christensen , J. 2012 . Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling . Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A , 29 : 1502 – 1513 . doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.712059
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smith , P. and Olesen , J. E. 2010 . Synergies between the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture . Journal of Agricultural Sciences , 148 : 543 – 552 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Soussana , J. , Fereres , E. , Long , S. P. , Mohren , F. G. M. J. , Pandya-Lorch , R. , Peltonen-Sainio , P. , Porter , J. R. , Rosswall , T. & Von Braun , J. 2012 . A European science plan to sustainably increase food security under climate change . Global Change Biology 18 , 3269 – 3271 . doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02746.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Taylor , K. E. , Stouffer , R. J. & Meehl , G. A. 2011 . A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design . Available at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgcm/references/Taylor_CMIP5.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Tebaldi , C. and Knutti , R. 2007 . The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic 25 climate projections . Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A – 26 Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences , 365 : 2053 – 2075 .
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tilman , D. , Balzer , C. , Hill , J. and Befort , B. L. 2011 . Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture . Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA , 108 : 20260 – 20264 . doi: 10.1073/pnas.1116437108
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Trnka , M. , Olesen , J. E. , Kersebaum , K. C. , Skjelvåg , A. O. , Eitzinger , J. , Seguin , B. , Peltonen-Sainio , P. , Rötter , R. P. , Iglesias , A. , Orlandini , S. , Dubrovský , M. , Hlavinka , P. , Balek , J. , Eckersten , H. , Cloppet , E. , Calanca , P. , Gobin , A. , Vucetic , V. , Nejedlik , P. , Kumar , S. , Lalic , B. , Mestre , A. , Rossi , F. , Kozyra , J. , Alexandrov , V. , Semerádová , D. and Zalud , Z. 2011 . Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change . Global Change Biology , 17 : 2298 – 2318 . doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02396.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van der Linden , P. & Mitchell , J. F. B. (2009) . ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and Its impacts: Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project (Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre) .
   Google Scholar
• von Braun , J. 2008 . Food price crisis isn't over . Nature , 456 : 701 – 02 . doi: 10.1038/456701a
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Walker , W. E. , Harremoes , P. , Rotmans , J. , Van der Sluijs , J. P. , Van Asselt , M. B. A. , Janssen , P. and Von Krauss , M. P. K. 2003 . Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support . Integrated Assessment , 4 : 5 – 17 . doi: 10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466
   Google Scholar
• White , J. W. , Hoogenboom , G. , Kimball , B. A. and Wall , G. W. 2011 . Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production . Field Crops Research , 124 : 357 – 368 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar