2,143
Views
1
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Deter together or deter separately?: time horizons and peacetime alliance cohesion of the US-Japan and US-ROK alliances

Pages 747-776 | Received 11 Aug 2022, Accepted 14 Jul 2023, Published online: 27 Jul 2023

References

  • Allison, G. (2018). The US is hunkering down for a new cold war with China. Financial Times, October 13.
  • Associated Press. (2003). Rumsfeld wants U.S. troops in Korea moved farther from DMZ or sent home. Associated Press, March 7.
  • Austin, L. J. (2021). Transcript: Secretary of defense briefs reporters on NATO defense ministerial and ongoing department of defense issues. https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2509623/secretary-of-defense-briefs-reporters-on-nato-defense-ministerial-and-ongoing-d/.
  • Bandow, D. (2020). The pentagon sizes up China, sees a serious military threat. The Cato Institute, September 10. https://www.cato.org/commentary/pentagon-sizes-china-sees-serious-military-threat.
  • BBC. (2014). Japan to build military site near disputed Senkaku islands. BBC, April 19.
  • Bennett, B. W. (2017). Lowdown on Pyeongtaek garrison. The Korea Times, July 24.
  • Cavas, C. P. (2016). Japan extends East China Sea surveillance. Defense News, March 17.
  • Chanlett-Avery, E., & Rinehart, I. E. (2016). The U.S. military presence in Okinawa and the Futenma base controversy. Congressional Research Service, January 20. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42645.pdf.
  • Cho, S. (2018). The realignment of USFK and the U.S.-ROK alliance in transition. In Kwak, T., & Joo, S. (Eds.), The United States and the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century. London. Routledge.
  • Christensen, T. J. (1996). Useful adversaries: Grand strategy, domestic mobilization, and Sino-American conflict, 1947-1958. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Clare, J. (2013). The deterrent value of democratic allies. International Studies Quarterly, 57(3), 545–555. doi:10.1111/isqu.12012
  • Cooper, J., & Sayers, E. (2023). Japan’s Shift to War Footing. War on the Rocks, January 12.
  • Council on Foreign Relations. (2021). A conversation with foreign minister Chung eui-yong of the Republic of Korea. https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-foreign-minister-chung-eui-yong-republic-korea.
  • Dalton, T., Friedhoff, K., & Kim, L. (2022). Thinking Nuclear: South Korean Attitudes on Nuclear Weapons. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Korea%20Nuclear%20Report%20PDF.pdf
  • Denyer, S. (2019). Japan builds an island ‘wall’ to counter China’s intensifying military, territorial incursions. The Washington Post, August 21.
  • Dian, M. (2014). The evolution of the U.S.-Japan alliance: The eagle and the chrysanthemum. Oxford: Chandos Publishing.
  • Diehl, P. F. (1985). Contiguity and military escalation in major power rivalries, 1816–1980. The Journal of Politics, 47(4), 1203–1211. doi:10.2307/2130814
  • Do, J. (2021). Korea faces growing calls to join Quad plus. Korea Times, February 7.
  • Edelstein, D. M. (2017). Over the horizon: Time, uncertainty, and the rise of great powers. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Edelstein, D. M. (2020). Time and the rise of China. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 13(3), 387–417. doi:10.1093/cjip/poaa010
  • Faiola, A. (2005). Japan to join U.S. policy on Taiwan. The Washington Post, February 18.
  • Fearon, J. D. (1997). Signaling foreign policy interests: Tying hands versus sinking costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1), 68–90. doi:10.1177/0022002797041001004
  • Fouse, D. (2011). Japan’s 2010 national defense program guidelines: Coping with the ‘grey zones.’ Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.
  • Gallo, W. (2021). US rules out redeploying tactical nukes to South Korea. VOA News, September 24.
  • Gibbs, S. (2014). China rising: Xiaomi becomes world’s third biggest smartphone manufacturer. The Guardian, October 30.
  • Gil, Y. (2021). 정부, 한-미정상성명 ‘대만언급’ 논란 조기차단 나서 [Government tries to cut off controversy over ‘Taiwan reference’ in Korea-US summit statement]. 한겨레 [The Hankyoreh], May 24.
  • Glaser, C. L., & Kaufmann, C. (1998). What is the offense-defense balance and can we measure it? International Security, 22(4), 44–82. doi:10.2307/2539240
  • GlobalSecurity.org. (n.d.). China’s defense budget. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm?utm_content=cmp-true
  • Gould, J. (2023). Japan to OK new US Marine littoral regiment on Okinawa. Defense News, January 11.
  • Han, S. (2008). From engagement to hedging: South Korea’s new China policy. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 20(4), 335–351. doi:10.1080/10163270802507328
  • Harris, B. (2018). South Korea: The fear of China’s shadow. Financial Times, August 19.
  • Heydarian, R. J. (2011). The fading U.S.-Pakistan alliance. Foreign Policy in Focus, December 23.
  • Holsti, O. R., Hopmann, P. T., & Sullivan, J. D. (1973). Unity and disintegration in international alliances: Comparative studies. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hong, G. H. (2004). The drawdown and realignment of USFK and South Korea’s security. Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification.
  • Horowitz, M., McDermott, R., & Stam, A. C. (2005). Leader age, regime type, and violent international relations. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(5), 661–685. doi:10.1177/0022002705279469
  • Hughes, C. W. (2009). Japan’s response to China’s rise: Regional engagement, global containment, dangers of collision. International Affairs, 85(4), 837–856. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2009.00830.x
  • Hughes, C. (2011). Reclassifying Chinese nationalism: The geopolitik turn. Journal of Contemporary China, 20(71), 601–620. doi:10.1080/10670564.2011.587161
  • Hyunh, T. (2023). Bolstering middle power standing: South Korea’s response to U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy from Trump to Biden. The Pacific Review, 36(1), 32–60.
  • Inhofe, J., & Reed, J. (2020). The pacific deterrence initiative: Peace through strength in the Indo-Pacific. War on the Rocks, May 28.
  • Japan MOD. (2012). Defense of Japan 2012. Tokyo: Japan MOD.
  • Japan MOD. (2019). Defense of Japan 2019. Tokyo: Japan MOD.
  • Japan MOD. (2016). Defense programs and budget of Japan: Overview of fy2016 budget. Tokyo: Japan MOD.
  • Japan MOFA. (2021). The Senkaku Islands. Tokyo: Japan MOFA.
  • Kih, J. (2020). Capability building and alliance cohesion: Comparing the US-Japan and US-Philippines alliances. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 74(4), 355–376. doi:10.1080/10357718.2019.1685935
  • Kim, D. (2022). Office of the President ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy Includes China as a Partner [대통령실 ‘인도태평양 전략, 중국도 협력 대상에 포함’]. Chosun Ilbo, December 28.
  • Kim, H. (2011). Substantiating the cohesion of the post-cold war US–Japan alliance. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 65(3), 340–359. doi:10.1080/10357718.2011.567442
  • Kim, S., Park, J., & Shin, H. (2023). Exclusive: South Korea’s Yoon opens door for possible military aid to Ukraine. Reuters, April 19.
  • Kim, T., & Simón, L. (2021). A reputation versus prioritization trade-off: Unpacking allied perceptions of us extended deterrence in distant regions. Security Studies, 30(5), 725–760. doi:10.1080/09636412.2021.2010889
  • Krebs, R. R., & Rapport, A. (2012). International relations and the psychology of time horizons. International Studies Quarterly, 56(3), 530–543. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00726.x
  • Kreps, S. E. (2011). Coalitions of convenience: United States military interventions after the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Kwon, K. (2003). If USFK is redeployed in rear areas or downsized [주한미군 후방배치·감축되면]. Chosun Ilbo, February 16.
  • Kyodo News. (2021). Japan held drill in Nov. assuming foreign occupation of Senkakus. Kyodo News, December 27.
  • Lawless, J., Wilson, J., & Corbet, S. (2022). NATO deems Russia its ‘most significant and direct threat. Associated Press, June 29.
  • Lanoszka, A. (2016). Russian hybrid warfare and extended deterrence in eastern Europe. International Affairs, 92(1), 175–195. doi:10.1111/1468-2346.12509
  • Lee, J. (2016). South Korea and the South China Sea: A domestic and international balancing act. Asia Policy, 21, 36–40. doi:10.1080/09636412.2021.2010887
  • Lee, D. Y. (2021). Strategies of extended deterrence: How states provide the security umbrella. Security Studies, 30(5), 761–796.
  • Lee, H. (2023). Yoon says Washington Declaration is ‘upgraded’ version of Mutual Defense Treaty. Yonhap News, April 29.
  • Lee, K. (2005). [Outlook] dealing with strategic flexibility. Korea Joongang Daily, May 22.
  • Lee, M. Y. H., & Nakashima, E. (2022). Japan to buy Tomahawk missiles in defense buildup amid fears of war. The Washington Post, December 22.
  • Leeds, B. A., & Savun, B. (2007). Terminating alliances: Why do states abrogate agreements? The Journal of Politics, 69(4), 1118–1132. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00612.x
  • Lendon, B., & Wang, S. (2021). Leaders of US, Japan, India and Australia to meet in first-ever ‘Quad’ summit. CNN, March 10.
  • Lendon, B., & Liebermann, O. (2023). War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries. CNN, January 9.
  • Lerner, A. B. (2020). The uses and abuses of victimhood nationalism in international politics. European Journal of International Relations, 26(1), 62–87. doi:10.1177/1354066119850249
  • Lind, J. M. (2004). Pacifism or passing the buck? Testing theories of Japanese security policy. International Security, 29(1), 92–121. doi:10.1162/0162288041762968
  • Lind, J., & Press, D. G. (2021). Five futures for a troubled alliance. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 33(3), 357–380.
  • Lintner, B. (2020). US, India in a tentative anti-China embrace. Asia Times, August 10.
  • Liska, G. (1962). Nations in alliances: The limits of interdependence. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
  • Long, D. (2020). Japan and ASEAN weigh China threat in disputed seas. Radio Free Asia, June 25.
  • Luo, S. (2022). China-South Korea Disputes in the Yellow Sea: Why a More Conciliatory Chinese Posture. Journal of Contemporary China, 31(138), 913–930. doi:10.1080/10670564.2022.2030999
  • Lüthi, L. M. (2008). The Sino-Soviet split: Cold war in the communist world. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Marlow, I. (2022). Blinken Says China Wants to Seize Taiwan on ‘Much Faster Timeline. Bloomberg, October 18.
  • Mazarr, M. J. (2015). Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict. Carlisle: U.S. Army War College.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1981). Maneuver, mobile defense, and the NATO central front. International Security, 6(3), 104–122. doi:10.2307/2538609
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1985). Conventional deterrence. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Medeiros, E. S. (2019). The Changing Fundamentals of US-China Relations. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 93–119. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2019.1666355
  • Morgan, P. M. (1977). Deterrence: A conceptual analysis. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
  • Morrow, J. D. (1991). Alliances and asymmetry: An alternative to the capability aggregation model of alliances. American Journal of Political Science, 35(4), 904–933. doi:10.2307/2111499
  • Mozur, P. (2015). Samsung shows signs of a turnaround. New York Times, April 7.
  • Nam, C. (2006). Relocating the U.S. forces in South Korea: Strained Alliance, Emerging Partnership in the Changing Defense Posture. Asian Survey, 46(4), 615–631. doi:10.1525/as.2006.46.4.615
  • O’Donnell, K. (2022). Biden, NATO pledge additional troops to Eastern Europe amid war in Ukraine. NBC News.
  • Okinawa Prefectural Government. (2018). What Okinawa wants you to understand about the U.S. military bases, Naha City: Okinawa Prefectural Government.
  • Olson, M. (1993). Dictatorship, democracy, and development. American Political Science Review, 87(3), 567–576. doi:10.2307/2938736
  • Onishi, N. (2005). Foreign minister says Japan sees military threat in China buildup. The New York Times, December 23.
  • Oren, E., & Brummer, M. (2020). Reexamining threat perception in early Cold War Japan. Journal of Cold War Studies, 22(4), 71–112. doi:10.1162/jcws_a_00948
  • Park, J. J., & Moon, S. B. (2014). Perception of order as a source of alliance cohesion. The Pacific Review, 27(2), 147–168. doi:10.1080/09512748.2014.882118
  • Park, W. (2014). 한미동맹의 재해석: 동맹 이익과 비용 [Reinterpretation of US-ROK alliance: Benefits and costs of alliance]. A collection of papers presented at the Korean Association of International Studies’ Symposium, 105–117.
  • Pilling, D. (2007). Japan feels threat of China’s military. Financial Times, July 7.
  • Peters, B. G. (2013). Strategies for Comparative Research in Political Science. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Poast, P. (2019). Arguing about alliances: The art of agreement in military-pact negotiations. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Rafferty, K. (2003). An institutionalist reinterpretation of Cold War alliance systems: Insights for alliance theory. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 36(2), 341–362. doi:10.1017/S0008423903778664
  • Resnick, E. N. (2013). Hang together or hang separately? Evaluating rival theories of wartime alliance cohesion. Security Studies, 22(4), 672–706. doi:10.1080/09636412.2013.844520
  • Reuters. (2015). Russia not an immediate threat to NATO states, Stoltenberg says. Reuters, June 4.
  • Risse-Kappen, T. (1997). Cooperation among democracies: The European influence on U.S. foreign policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Robertson, M. L. C. (1988). Soviet policy towards Japan: An analysis of trends in the 1970s and 1980s. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Roehrig, T. (2017). Japan, South Korea, and the United States nuclear umbrella: Deterrence after the Cold War. New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Rappeport, A. (2019). Trump Calls China a ‘Threat to the World’ as Trade Talks Approach. The New York Times, September 20.
  • ROK MOD. (2022). 2022 국방백서 [2022 Defense White Paper]. Seoul: ROK MOD.
  • Ross, R. S. (2019). On the fungibility of economic power: China’s economic rise and the East Asian security order. European Journal of International Relations, 25(1), 302–327. doi:10.1177/1354066118757854
  • Schroeder, P. W. (1976). Alliances, 1815–1945: Weapons of Power and Tools of Management. In Knorr, K. (Ed.), Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems, 173–225. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.
  • Schelling, T. C. (1960). The strategy of conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and influence. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Seawright, J., & Gerring, J. (2008). Case selection techniques in case study research: A menu of qualitative and quantitative options. Political Research Quarterly, 61(2), 294–308. doi:10.1177/1065912907313077
  • Seldin, J. (2021). China accelerates plans to overtake US on world stage, top commander says. VOA News, March 9.
  • Seligman, L. (2021). Pentagon launches new task force to examine China threat. Politico, February 10.
  • Silove, N. (2016). The pivot before the pivot U.S. strategy to preserve the power balance in Asia. International Security, 40(4), 45–88. doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00238
  • Smith, J., & Shin, H. (2019). South Korea’s Moon to meet Trump over stalled North Korea talks. Reuters, March 29.
  • Streich, P., & Levy, J. S. (2007). Time horizons, discounting, and intertemporal choice. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51(2), 199–226. doi:10.1177/0022002706298133
  • Suzuki, S. (2015). The rise of the Chinese ‘Other’ in Japan’s construction of identity: Is China a focal point of Japanese nationalism? The Pacific Review, 28(1), 95–116. doi:10.1080/09512748.2014.970049
  • Tahir-Kheli, S. (1982). The United States and Pakistan: The evolution of an influence relationship. New York: Praeger.
  • Takenaka, K. (2012). Japan buys disputed islands, China sends patrol ships. Reuters, September 11.
  • The Asan Institute for Policy Studies. (2012). South Korea in a changing world: Foreign affairs. Seoul: The Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
  • The Korea Herald. (2003). Realignment of USFK. The Korea Herald, March 11.
  • The Korea Herald. (2003). S. Korea, US, Japan agree to hold missile defense, anti-sub drills regularly to counter NK threats. The Korea Herald, April 15.
  • The White House. (2012). Statement by president on the presidential election in the Republic of Korea. The White House, December 19. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/12/19/statement-president-presidential-election-republic-korea.
  • The White House. (2014). Joint press conference with president Obama and prime minister Abe of Japan. The White House, April 24.
  • The White House. (2021a). U.S.-ROK Leaders’ Joint Statement. The White House, May 21. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/21/u-s-rok-leaders-joint-statement/.
  • The White House. (2021b). U.S.- Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: ‘U.S.–JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA.’ The White House, April 16. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/u-s-japan-joint-leaders-statement-u-s-japan-global-partnership-for-a-new-era/.
  • Trent, M. (2020). Over the line: The implications of China’s ADIZ intrusions in Northeast Asia. Washington: Federation of American Scientists.
  • Tritten, T. J. (2012). US to beef up marine presence on Okinawa before drawdown. Starts & Stripes, June 12.
  • Troutman, N. (2020). Alliance cohesion: Connecting the disconnect in alliance reliability. [Master’s Thesis] University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
  • Tuschhoff, C. (1999). Alliance cohesion and peaceful change in NATO. In Haftendorn, H., Keohane, R., & Wallander, C. (Eds.), Imperfect Unions: Security Institutions over Time and Space. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • US Department of Defense. (2006). Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006. Arlington: Office of the Secretary of Defense.
  • US Department of Defense. (2021). Secretary of defense Lloyd J. Austin III remarks with defense minister Suh Wook of the Republic of Korea in Seoul, Korea.
  • US Department of State. (2021). Secretary Antony J. Blinken, secretary of defense Lloyd Austin, Japanese foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi, and Japanese defense minister Nobuo Kishi at a joint press availability. https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-austin-japanese-foreign-minister-toshimitsu-motegi-and-japanese-defense-minister-nobuo-kishi-at-a-joint-press-availability/.
  • Wallace, G. P. R. (2008). Alliances, institutional design, and the determinants of military strategy. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 25(3), 224–243. doi:10.1080/07388940802218978
  • Walt, S. M. (1987). The origins of alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
  • Weitsman, P. A. (2004). Dangerous alliances: Proponents of peace, weapons of war. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
  • Yahuda, M. (2013). China’s new assertiveness in the South China Sea. Journal of Contemporary China, 22(81), 446–459. doi:10.1080/10670564.2012.748964
  • Yonhap News. (2021). 4 in 5 S. Koreans cite China as security threat: Poll. Yonhap News, April 7.
  • You, S. (2022). [중국읽기] 중국 비호감도 사상 첫 80% 돌파 [[Reading China] China’s unfavorability rate exceeded 80% for the first time]. 중앙일보 [JoongAng Ilbo], July 4.
  • Zakaria, F. (2022). South Korean President: North Korea remains an imminent threat. CNN, September 25.