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Original Articles

Path Dependence, Agency and Technological Evolution

Pages 5-19 | Published online: 25 Aug 2010

  • Aminzade , R. 1992 . 'Historical Sociology and Time' . Sociological Methods & Research , 20 : 456 – 480 .
  • Sabel , C.F. and Zeitlin , J. 1997 . “ 'Stories, Strategies, Structures: Rethinking Historical Alternatives to Mass Production' ” . In World of Possibilities. Flexibility and Mass Production in Western Industrialisation , Edited by: Sabel , C.F. and Zeitlin , J. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Magnusson , L. and Ottosson , J. , eds. 1997 . Evolutionary Economics and Path Dependence , Cheltenham : Edward Elgar . For an overview of path dependence arguments see
  • Garud , R. and Karn⊘e , P. , eds. 2001 . Path Dependence and Creation , Mahwah, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum .
  • David , PA. 1985 . 'Clio and the Economics of QWERTY' . American Economic Review , 75 : 332 – 337 .
  • Ibid., 332
  • Antonelli , C. 1997 . 'The Economics of Path Dependence in Industrial Organization' . International Journal of Industrial Organization , 15 : 643 – 675 .
  • Liebowitz , S.J. and Margolis , S.E. 1995 . 'Path Dependence, Lock-in, and History' . Journal of Law, Economics & Organization , 11 : 205 – 226 . The role of path dependence in economic processes is the subject of some controversy in the economics literature. On one hand, the opponents of path dependence regard it as no more than a way of stating that history matters or that decisions taken today have durable consequences whose effects cannot be predicted in advance. See
  • David , P.A. 1997 . 'Path Dependence and the Quest for Historical Economics: One More Chorus for the Ballad of QWERTY' . Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, Number 20, University of Oxford , The thrust of this critique is whether or not outcomes of historical processes are efficient (e.g. QWERTY keyboards) and, if they are inefficient, whether they could have been remedied ex-ante. See also
  • David rebuts these criticisms and disentangles the contingent association between path dependent and inefficient outcomes of evolutionary processes.
  • Haydu , J. 1998 . 'Making Use of the Past: Time Periods as Cases to Compare and as Sequences of Problem Solving' . American Journal of Sociology , 104 : 339 – 371 .
  • North , D.C. 1990 . Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance , Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Little , D. 2000 . 'Explaining Large-Scale Historical Change' . Philosophy of the Social Sciences , 30 : 89 – 112 .
  • North, (ibid., pp. 98 99 neatly summarizes this point: 'Path dependence is a way to narrow conceptually the choice set and link decision making through time. It is not a story of inevitability in which the past neatly predicts the future.'
  • Sayer , A. 2000 . Realism and Social Science , London : Sage . ch. 1
  • Mahoney , J. 2000 . 'Path Dependence in Historical Sociology' . Theory and Society , 29 : 507 – 548 .
  • Thelen , K. 2000 . 'Timing and Temporality in the Analysis of Institutional Evolution and Change' . Studies in American Political Development , 14 : 101 – 108 . Mahoney characterizes path dependence as '… historical sequences in which contingent events set in motion institutional patterns or event chains that have deterministic properties' (ibid., p. 507). see
  • for a warning over the dangers of separating these two types of sequences. Thelen (p. 107) writes: 'Models of path dependency appropriated from economics tend to focus on a single process in isolation bringing history in only at the bookends--at the critical juncture moment and then again at the end of a reproduction sequence".
  • Arthur , W.B. 1994 . Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy , Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press .
  • Rosenberg , N. 1994 . Exploring the Black Box. Technology, Economics and History , Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Hughes , T.P. 1983 . Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society , Baltimore, MD : John Hopkins University Press . The notion of technological momentum is used in
  • Pierson , P. 2000a . 'Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Polities' . American Political Science Review , 94 : 251 – 267 . For the use of path dependence arguments in the evolution of institutions see North, op. cit., Ref. 9. For a proposal on how to use path dependence in political processes see
  • Pierson , P. 2000b . 'Not Just What, But When: Timing and Sequence in Political Processes' . Studies in American Political Development , 14 : 72 – 92 .
  • Saxenian , A. 1994 . Regional Advantage. Culture and Competition In Silicon Valley and Route 128 , Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press . For an application of path dependence arguments to regional development see
  • David , P.A. 1994 . "Why Are Institutions the 'Carriers of History'? Path Dependence and the Evolution of Conventions, Organizations and Institutions' . Structural Change and Economic Dynamics , 5 : 205 – 220 .
  • 1968 . Some of these arguments were anticipated in A.L. Stinchcombe, Constructing Social Theories , San Francisco : Harcourt, Brace & World .
  • See in particular Stinchcombe's discussion of sunk costs and historicist modes of explanation (pp. 120 125.
  • Porac , J.F. 1997 . “ 'Local Rationality, Global Blunders and the Boundaries of Technological Choice: Lessons from IBM and DOS' ” . In Technological Innovation. Oversights and Foresights , Edited by: Garud , R. , Nayyar , P.R. and Shapira , Z.B. New York : Cambridge University Press .
  • Abbott , A. 1997 . “ On the Concept of Turning Point' ” . In Methodological Issues in Comparative Social Science , Edited by: Brochmann , G. , Engelstad , F. , Kalleberg , R. , Leira , A. and Mj⊘set , L. Greenwich, CT : JAI Press .
  • Abbott recasts these notions in ternis of trajectories and turning points. Trajectories are interlocked sequences of events whereas turning points are events that have the potential to redirect trajectories to new paths. Trajectories have an inertial character, coercing processes within along predetermined paths and have the ability to absorb minor variations and ruptures in processes without any appreciable impact on their direction.
  • Lane , D. , MaIerba , F. , Maxfield , R. and Orsenigo , L. 1996 . 'Choice and Action' . Journal of Evolutionary Economics , 6 : 43 – 76 .
  • Emirbayer , M. and Mische , A. 1998 . 'What is Agency?' . American Journal of Sociology , 103 : 962 – 1023 .
  • Hakansson , H. and Lundgren , A. 1997 . “ 'Paths in Time and Space--Path Dependence in Industrial Networks' ” . In Evolutionary Economics and Path Dependence , Edited by: Magnusson , L. and Ottosson , J. Cheltenham : Edward EIgar . See also the discussion of paths as structures and paths as processes in
  • Garud , R. and Karn⊘e , P. 2001 . “ 'Path Creation as a Process of Mindful Deviation' ” . In Path Dependence and Creation , Edited by: Garud , R. and Karn⊘0e , P. Mahwah, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum . discusses the concept of entrepreneurship as a process of path creation and mindful deviation from existing structures
  • Harrison , DJ. 1999 . “ 'Strategic Responses to Predicted Events: the case of banning of CFCs ” . University of Lancaster . Unpublished PhD dissertation
  • Langlois , R.N. 1999 . “ 'Scale, Scope and the Reuse of Knowledge' ” . In Economic Organization and Economic Knowledge. Essays in Honour of Brian J. Loasby , Edited by: Dow , S.O. and Earl , P. E. Vol. 1 , Cheltenham : Edward Elgar . Arthur op. cit., Ref. 13, p. 112, argues that large set-up or fixed costs learning effects constitute two sources of increasing returns in the use of technologies. With large set-up or fixed costs there is a strong incentive to stick with one option and make it pay off in the long run. Increasing returns also flow from experiential learning arising out of repetition and specialization. See
  • on how economies of scope and scale can be regarded as the reuse of existing knowledge embodied in durable assets.
  • David , P. 1992 . 'Heroes, Herds and Hysteresis in Technological History: Thomas Edison and the "Battle of the Systems" Reconsidered' . Industrial and Corporate Change , 1 : 129 – 180 . See the discussion in
  • David (ibid., p. 175) frames the discussion of network technologies in these terms: 'Actual temporal decisions depend upon the rate at which system suppliers and users became sequentially committed to one technical formulation, with its attendant compatibility requirements, or another; cyclical booms, during which high rates of investment in long-lined physical facilities, thus can contribute to narrowing the time-window within which truly formative decisions can occur. Viewed from this angle, it is the fleeting context created by a network technology that creates the opportunity for one or another innovating agent to take specific initiative which can be held to have directed the subsequent course of events' [emphasis added]
  • Håkansson , H. and Waluzewski , A. 1999 . 'Path Dependence: Restricting or Facilitating Technical Development?' . Proceedings of the 15th Annual IMP Conference . 1999 , Dublin. Edited by: McLoughlin , D. and Horan , C. University College Dublin .

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