Keynes, Knight, and Fundamental Uncertainty: A Double Centenary 1921–2021

References

• Bachelier, L. 1900. ‘Théorie de la speculation.’ Annales Scientifiques de L’École Normale Supérieure 3 (17): 21–86. trans. A. J. Boness in P. H. Cootner, ed., The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1964, 17-78.
   Google Scholar
• Bachelier, L. 1912. Calcul des probabilités, Tôme I. Paris: Gauthier-Villars. reprinted Paris: Jacques Gabay, 1992.
   Google Scholar
• Bachelier, L. 1914. Le jeu, la chance et la hazard. Paris: Flammarion.
   Google Scholar
• Bachelier, L. 1938. La spéculation et le calcul des probabilités. Paris: Gauthier-Villars. translated n Ben-El-Mechaiekh and Dimand (2018).
   Google Scholar
• Backhouse, R., and B. Bateman. 2006. The Cambridge Companion to John Maynard Keynes. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bateman, B. W. 1987. ‘Keynes’s Changing Conception of Probability.’ Economics and Philosophy 3: 97–120.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bateman, B. W. 1996. Keynes’s Uncertain Revolution. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
   Google Scholar
• Ben-El-Mechaiekh, H., and R. W. Dimand. 2018. ‘Louis Bachlier’s 1938 Monograph on the Calculus of Speculation: Mathematical Finance and Randomness of Asset Prices in Bachelier’s Later Work.’ Revue d’histoire des mathématiques 24 (1): 41–106. Cowles Foundation Paper No. 1643.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bernstein, P. 1998. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 1986[2002]. ‘Knightian Decision Theory: Part I.’ Decisions in Economics and Finance 25 (2): 79–110. and as Cowles Foundation Paper 1053; first circulated as Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 807 (November 1986).
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 1987. ‘Knightian Decision Theory, Part II: Intertemporal Problems.’ Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 835 (May).
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 1988[1998]. ‘Knightian Uncertainty.’ In Frontiers of Research in Economic Theory: The Nancy L. Schwartz Memorial Lectures, 1983-1997, Econometric Society Monograph 29, edited by D. P. Jacobs, E. Kalai, and M. I. Kamien. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 1988[2011]. ‘Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inferences.’ Journal of Economic Theory 146 (3): 1134–1147: first circulated as Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 868 (March 1988).
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 1999. Why Wages Don’t Fall During a Recession. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Bewley, T. F. 2007. General Equilibrium, Overlapping Generations Models, and Optimal Growth Theory. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Burgin, A. 2009. ‘The Radical Conservatism of Frank H. Knight.’ Modern Intellectual History 6: 513–538.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carabelli, A. 1988. On Keynes’s Method. London: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Carabelli, A. 2002. ‘Speculation and Reasonableness: A Non-Bayesian Theory of Rationality.’ In Keynes, Uncertainty and the Global Economy, edited by S. Dow, and J. Hillard. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Coddington, A. 1982. ‘Deficient Foresight: A Troublesome Theme in Keynesian Economics.’ American Economic Review 72 (2): 480–487.
   Google Scholar
• Coddington, A. 1983. Keynesian Economics: The Search for First Principles. London: George Allen & Unwin.
   Google Scholar
• Davidson, P. 1991. ‘Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective.’ Journal of Economic Perspectives 5 (1): 29–43.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Davis, J. B. 1994. Keynes’s Philosophical Development. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• De Finetti, B. 1937. ‘Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources,’ as trans. H. E. Kyburg, Jr., in H. E. Kyburg, Jr., and H. Smookler, eds., Studies in Subjective Probability, New York: Wiley, 1964, 95-158.
   Google Scholar
• Dimand, R. W. 2018. ‘Review of Nishimura and Ozaki (2017).’ Journal of Economics (Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie) 124 (2): 203–205.
   Google Scholar
• Dimand, R. W., and H. Hagemann, eds. 2019. The Elgar Companion to John Maynard Keynes. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Emmett, R. B. 1999. Selected Essays of Frank H. Knight, 2 Vols. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Emmett, R. B. 2009. Frank Knight and the Chicago School in American Economics. London and New York: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Emmett, R. B. 2010. The Elgar Companion to the Chicago School of Economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Emmett, R. B. 2020. ‘Reconsidering Frank Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.’ Independent Review 24 (4): 533–541.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Epstein, L. G., and T. Wang. 1994. ‘Intertemporal Asset Pricing under Knightian Uncertainty.’ Econometrica 62: 283–322.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Feduzi, A., J. Runde, and C. Zappia. 2012. ‘De Finetti on the Insurance of Risks and Uncertainties.’ British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 63 (2): 329–356.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fender, J. 1983. ‘Review of Coddington (1983).’ Economic Journal 93: 914–916.
   Google Scholar
• Fitzgibbons, A. 1988. Keynes’s Vision: A New Political Economy. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gilboa, I. 2009. Theory of Decision under Uncertainty. New York: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gilboa, I., and D. Schmeidler. 2001. A Theory of Case-Based Decisions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gillies, D. 2006. ‘Keynes and Probability.’ In The Cambridge Companion to Keynes, edited by R. E. Backhouse, and B. W. Bateman, 199–216. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Gillies, D., and G. Ieto-Gillies. 1987. ‘Probability and Economics in the Work of Bruno De Finetti.’ Economia Internazionale 40: 3–20.
   Google Scholar
• Greer, W. B. 2001. Ethics and Uncertainty: The Economics of John Maynard Keynes and Frank H. Knight. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Harper, W. L., and C. A. Harper. 1976. Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, Volume II: Foundations and Philosophy of Statistical Inference. Dordrecht and Boston: D. Reidel.
   Google Scholar
• Hayek, F. A. 1948. Individualism and Economic Order. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hoogduin, L. 1987. ‘On the Difference between the Keynesian, Knightian and the “Classical” Analysis of Uncertainty and the Development of a More General Monetary Theory.’ De Economist 135 (1): 52–65.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1913. ‘Review of Bachelier (1912) and Five Other Books on Probability.’ Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 76: 113–116. as reprinted in Keynes (1971-1989), 567-572.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1921. A Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1933. Essays in Biography. London: Rupert Hart Davis. as reprinted with three additional essays, New York: Horizon, 1951.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1937. ‘The General Theory of Employment.’ Quarterly Journal of Economics 51 (2): 209–223.; reprinted in Keynes (1971-1989), Vol. XIV.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, J. M. 1971-1989. Collected Writings, 30 vols., general eds D. E. Moggridge and E. A. G. Robinson, volume eds. D. E. Moggridge and E. S. Johnson. London: Macmillan and New York: Cambridge University Press for the Royal Economic Society.
   Google Scholar
• Knight, F. H. 1921. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, Reprinted with Introduction by G. J. Stigler. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1971.
   Google Scholar
• Knight, F. H. 1956. On the History and Method of Economics: Selected Essays. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Kolmogorov, A. N. 1933[1950]. Foundations of the Theory of Probability. New York: Chelsea (trans. from German ed., Berlin: Springer, 1933).
   Google Scholar
• Kregel, J. A. 1976. ‘Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty.’ Economic Journal 86: 209–225.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kyburg, H. E., Jr. 1995. ‘Keynes as a Philosopher,’ in A. F. Cottrell and M. S. Lawlor, eds., New Perspectives on Keynes, Annual Supplement to History of Political Economy 27: 7-32, with comment by J. Runde, 33-38.
   Google Scholar
• Lawson, T. 1985. ‘Uncertainty and Economic Analysis.’ Economic Journal 95: 909–927.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Leblanc, H. 1962. Statistical and Inductive Probabilities. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
   Google Scholar
• LeRoy, S. F., and L. D. Singell, Jr. 1987. ‘Knight on Risk and Uncertainty.’ Journal of Political Economy 95 (2): 394–406.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Loasby, B. J. 1976. Choice, Complexity, and Ignorance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Machina, M. J. 1987. ‘Choice Under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved.’ Journal of Economic Perspectives 1: 121–154.
   Google Scholar
• Mandelbrot, B. 1997. Fractals and Scaling in Finance (Selecta Volume E). New York, Berlin, and Heidelberg: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• McKinney, J. 1977. ‘Frank H. Knight on Uncertainty and Rational Action.’ Southern Economic Journal 43 (4): 1438–1452.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Misak, C. 2020. Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Mises, R. v. 1939. Probability, Truth and Statistics. New York: Macmillan. 2nd ed., 1957, reprinted New York: Dover.
   Google Scholar
• Moggridge, D. E. 1992. Maynard Keynes: An Economist’s Biography. London and New York: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Nash, S. J. 1998. Cost, Uncertainty, and Welfare: Frank Knight’s Theory of Imperfect Competition. Aldershot, UK, and Brookfield, VT: Ashgate.
   Google Scholar
• Nishimura, K. G. 1992. Imperfect Competition, Differential Information, and Microfoundations of Macroeconomics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nishimura, K. G., and H. Ozaki. 2004. ‘Search and Knightian Uncertainty.’ Journal of Economic Theory 119: 299–333.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nishimura, K. G., and H. Ozaki. 2007. ‘Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty.’ Journal of Economic Theory 136: 668–694.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nishimura, K. G., and H. Ozaki. 2017. Economics of Pessimism and Optimism: Theory of Knightian Uncertainty and Its Applications. Tokyo: Springer Japan.
   Google Scholar
• O’Donnell, R. 1989. Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics. London: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• O’Driscoll, G. P., Jr. and M. J. Rizzo. 1985. The Economics of Time and Ignorance. New York: Blackwell. 2nd ed. London and New York: Routledge, 1996.
   Google Scholar
• Rakow, T. 2010. ‘Risk, Uncertainty and Prophet: The Psychological Insights of Frank H. Knight.’ Judgment and Decision Making 5 (6): 458–466.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ramsey, F. P. 1922. ‘Mr. Keynes on Probability,’ The Cambridge Magazine; as reprinted in 1989 in British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 40: 219–222.
   Google Scholar
• Ramsey, F. P. 1931. The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays. ed. R. B. Braithwaite. London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner.
   Google Scholar
• Runde, J. 1994. ‘Keynes after Ramsey: In Defense of A Treatise on Probability.’ Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science Part A 25 (1): 97–121.
   Google Scholar
• Savage, L. J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley & Sons. reprinted New York: Dover, 1972.
   Google Scholar
• Shackle, G. L. S. 1938. Expectations, Investment, and Income. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2nd ed. Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1968.
   Google Scholar
• Shackle, G. L. S. 1972. Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Current Economic Doctrines. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Shackle, G. L. S. 1973. ‘Keynes and Today’s Establishment in Economic Theory: A View.’ Journal of Economic Literature 11: 516–519.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Skidelsky, R. 2003. John Maynard Keynes 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman. London: Macmillan.
   Google Scholar
• Szpiro, G. 2020. Risk, Choice and Uncertainty: Three Centuries of Economic Decision Making. New York: Columbia University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Taleb, N. N. 2010. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. 2nd ed. New York: Random House.
   Google Scholar
• Townshend, H. 1937. ‘Liquidity-Premium and the Theory of Value.’ Economic Journal 47: 157–169.
   Google Scholar
• Weintraub, E. R. 1975. ‘“Uncertainty” and the Keynesian Revolution.’ History of Political Economy 7 (4): 530–548.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar