65
Views
19
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis

Pages 287-290 | Published online: 07 Oct 2010

References

  • Armstrong , J. S. and Fildes , R. 1995 . Correspondence on the selection of error measures for comparison among forecasting methods . Journal of Forecasting , 14 : 67 – 71 .
  • Artis , M. J. 1996 . How accurate are the IMF's short-term forecasts?. Another examination of the World Economic Outlook , IMF Working Paper 96/89
  • Ash , J. C. K. , Smyth , D. J. and Heravi , S. M. 1998 . Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis . International Journal of Forecasting , 14 : 381 – 391 .
  • Carlson , J. 1977 . A study of price forecasts . Annals of Economic and Social Measurement , 6 : 27 – 56 .
  • Clements , M. P. and Hendry , D. F. 1993 . On the limitations of comparing mean squared forecast errors . Journal of Forecasting , 12 : 617 – 637 . With discussion
  • Clements , M. P. and Hendry , D. F. 1998 . Forecasting Economic Time Series , Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
  • Daniel , W. W. 1978 . Applied Non-Parametric Statistics , London : Houghton-Mifflin .
  • Diebold , F. X. , Tay , A. S. and Wallis , K. F. 1997 . Evaluating density forecasts of inflation: the Survey of Professional Forecasters , NBER Working Paper 6228
  • Figlewski , S. and Watchel , P. 1981 . The formation of inflationary expectations . Review of Economics and Statistics , 63 : 1 – 10 .
  • Henriksson , R. D. and Merton , R. C. 1981 . On market timing and investment performance 2: statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills . Journal of Business , 54 : 513 – 533 .
  • Joutz , F. L. and Stekler , H. O. 1998 . Data revisions and forecasting . Applied Economics , 30 : 1011 – 1016 .
  • Keane , M. P. and Runkle , D. E. 1990 . Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data . American Economic Review , 80 : 714 – 735 .
  • Lai , K. S. 1990 . An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts . Economics Letters , 32 : 61 – 65 .
  • Leitch , G. and Tanner , J. E. 1995 . Professional economic forecasts: are they worth their costs? . Journal of Forecasting , 14 : 143 – 157 .
  • Merton , R. C. 1981 . On market timing and investment performance 1: an equilibrium theory of value for market forecasts . Journal of Business , 54 : 363 – 406 .
  • Öller , L. E. and Barot , B. 2000 . The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts , Working Paper no. 72 National Institute of Economic Research .
  • Pesando , J. 1975 . A note on the rationality of the Livingston price expectations . Journal of Political Economy , 83 : 849 – 858 .
  • Pesaran , M. H. and Timmermann , A. G. 1992 . A simple non-parametic test of predictive performance . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 10 : 461 – 465 .
  • Pesaran , M. H. and Timmermann , A. G. 1994 . A generalisation of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing . Economics Letters , 44 : 1 – 7 .
  • Pons , J. 2000 . The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries . Journal of Forecasting , 19 : 53 – 63 .
  • Schnader , M. H. and Stekler , H. O. 1990 . Evaluating predictions of change . Journal of Business , 63 : 99 – 107 .
  • Söderlind , P. 1998 . Nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations . Scandinavian Journal of Economics , 100 : 457 – 472 .
  • Stekler , H. O. 1994 . Are economic forecasts valuable? . Journal of Forecasting , 13 : 495 – 505 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.