‘The Green New Deal’ as partisan cue: Evidence from a survey experiment in the rural U.S.

References

• AAPOR, (2016). Standard definitions: final dispositions of case codes and outcome rates for surveys.
   Google Scholar
• Abatzoglou, J.T. and Williams, A.P., 2016. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (42), 11770–11775. doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arceneaux, K. and Kolodny, R., 2009. Educating the least informed: group endorsements in a grassroots campaign. American Journal of Political Science, 53 (4), 755–770. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00399.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Benegal, S.D. and Scruggs, L.A., 2018. Correcting misinformation about climate change: the impact of partisanship in an experimental setting. Climatic Change, 148 (1–2), 61–80. doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2192-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bergquist, P. and Warshaw, C., 2019. Does global warming increase public concern about climate change? The Journal of Politics, 81 (2), 686–691. doi:10.1086/701766
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bergquist, P., Mildenberger, M., and Stokes, L.C., 2020. Combining climate, economic, and social policy builds public support for climate action in the US. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (5), 054019. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab81c1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bernauer, T. and McGrath, L.F., 2016. Simple reframing unlikely to boost public support for climate policy. Nature Climate Change, 6 (7), 680–683. doi:10.1038/nclimate2948
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonds, E., 2011. The knowledge-shaping process: elite mobilization and environmental policy. Critical Sociology, 37 (4), 429–446. doi:10.1177/0896920510379440
   Google Scholar
• Borick, C.P. and Rabe, B.G., 2017. Personal experience, extreme weather events, and perceptions of climate change. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Oxford University Press, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.311
   Google Scholar
• Brooks, M.M. and Voltaire, S.T., 2020. Rural families in the U.S.: theory, research, and policy. In: J.E. Glick, S.M. McHale, and V. King, eds. Rural Families and Communities in the United States: facing Challenges and Leveraging Opportunities, National Symposium on Family Issues. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 253–267.
   Google Scholar
• Brulle, R.J., Carmichael, J., and Jenkins, J.C., 2012. Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010. Climatic Change, 114 (2), 169–188. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brulle, R.J., 2014. Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations. Climatic Change, 122 (4), 681–694. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brulle, R.J., 2018. The climate lobby: a sectoral analysis of lobbying spending on climate change in the USA, 2000 to 2016. Climatic Change, 149 (3–4), 289–303. doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2241-z
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bullock, J.G., et al., 2015. Partisan bias in factual beliefs about politics. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 10 (4), 519–578. doi:10.1561/100.00014074
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bullock, J.G. and Lenz, G., 2019. Partisan bias in surveys. Annual Review of Political Science, 22 (1), 325–342. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-050904
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clark, A., et al., 2020. Polarization politics and hopes for a green agenda in the United States. Environmental Politics, 29 (4), 719–745. doi:10.1080/09644016.2019.1654238
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cook, E.R., et al., 2004. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science, 306 (5698), 1015–1018. doi:10.1126/science.1102586
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coppock, A., Leeper, T.J., and Mullinix, K.J., 2018. Generalizability of heterogeneous treatment effect estimates across samples. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (49), 12441–12446. doi:10.1073/pnas.1808083115
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Crabtree, C. and Fariss, C., 2016. Stylized facts and experimentation. Sociological Science, 3, 910–914. doi:10.15195/v3.a39
   Google Scholar
• DiLiberto, T. (2021). Record-breaking June 2021 heatwave impacts the U.S. West. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/record-breaking-june-2021-heatwave-impacts-us-west [Accessed October 2021].
   Google Scholar
• Domhoff, G.W., 1990. The power elite and the state: How policy is made in America. New York: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Downey, L., 2015. Inequality, Democracy, and the Environment. New York, NY: NYU Press.
   Google Scholar
• Druckman, J.N., Peterson, E., and Slothuus, R., 2013. How elite partisan polarization affects public opinion formation. The American Political Science Review, 107 (1), 57–79. doi:10.1017/S0003055412000500
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dunlap, R.E. and Brulle, R.J., 2015. Climate change and society: sociological perspectives. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Ehret, P.J., Van Boven, L., and Sherman, D.K., 2018. Partisan barriers to bipartisanship: understanding climate policy polarization. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 9 (3), 308–318. doi:10.1177/1948550618758709
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farrell, J., 2016. Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (1), 92–97. doi:10.1073/pnas.1509433112
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farrell, J., 2019. The growth of climate change misinformation in US philanthropy: evidence from natural language processing. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (3), 034013. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf939
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Farrell, J., 2020. Billionaire wilderness: the ultra-wealthy and the remaking of the American West. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Freedman, D.A., 2008. On regression adjustments in experiments with several treatments. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2 (1), 176–196. doi:10.1214/07-AOAS143
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gerber, A.S. and Green, D.P., 2012. Field experiments: design, analysis, and interpretation. New York: W. W. Norton.
   Google Scholar
• Goldberg, M.H., et al., 2021. Shifting Republican views on climate change through targeted advertising. Nature Climate Change, 11 (7), 573–577. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01070-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goren, P., Federico, C.M., and Kittilson, M.C., 2009. Source cues, partisan identities, and political value expression. American Journal of Political Science, 53 (4), 805–820. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00402.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guber, D.L., 2013. A cooling climate for change? Party polarization and the politics of global warming. American Behavioral Scientist, 57 (1), 93–115. doi:10.1177/0002764212463361
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gustafson, A., et al., 2019. The development of partisan polarization over the Green New Deal. Nature Climate Change, 9 (12), 940–944. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0621-7
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamilton, L.C., et al., 2015. Tracking public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change. PLOS ONE, 10 (9), e0138208. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0138208
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hart, P.S. and Nisbet, E.C., 2012. Boomerang effects in science communication: how motivated reasoning and identity cues amplify opinion polarization about climate mitigation policies. Communication Research, 39 (6), 701–723. doi:10.1177/0093650211416646
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Howe, P.D., et al. (2019). How will climate change shape climate opinion? Environmental Research Letters, 14(11):113001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• H.R. 109. 116th Cong. (2019). https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text [Accessed October 2021].
   Google Scholar
• IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Technical report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
   Google Scholar
• Klinenberg, E., Araos, M., and Koslov, L., 2020. Sociology and the climate crisis. Annual Review of Sociology, 46 (1), 649–669. doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-121919-054750
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kousser, T. and Tranter, B., 2018. The influence of political leaders on climate change attitudes. Global Environmental Change, 50 (50), 100–109. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.005
   Google Scholar
• Leiserowitz, A., 2006. Climate change risk perception and policy preferences: the role of affect, imagery, and values. Climatic Change, 77 (1–2), 45–72. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9059-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lelkes, Y., 2021. Policy over party: comparing the effects of candidate ideology and party on affective polarization. Political Science Research and Methods, 9 (1), 189–196. doi:10.1017/psrm.2019.18
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lewandowsky, S., 2021. Climate change disinformation and how to combat it. Annual Review of Public Health, 42 (1), 1–21. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-090419-102409
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Linde, S., 2018. Climate policy support under political consensus: exploring the varying effect of partisanship and party cues. Environmental Politics, 27 (2), 228–246. doi:10.1080/09644016.2017.1413745
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lopez, H., et al., 2018. Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes. Nature Climate Change, 8 (5), 414–420. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0116-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lorenzoni, I., Nicholson-Cole, S., and Whitmarsh, L., 2007. Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications. Global Environmental Change, 17 (3–4), 445–459. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.01.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McCright, A.M., 2011. Political orientation moderates Americans’ beliefs and concern about climate change. Climatic Change, 104 (2), 243–253. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9946-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McGrath, M.C., 2021. Experiments on problems of climate change. In: D.P. Green and J. Druckman, eds. Advances in Experimental Political Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 592–615.
   Google Scholar
• Merkley, E. and Stecula, D.A., 2020. Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash, and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism. British Journal of Political Science, 51, 1439–1456.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mildenberger, M., Lubell, M., and Hummel, M., 2019. Personalized risk messaging can reduce climate concerns. Global Environmental Change, 55, 15–24.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morgan, S.L. and Winship, C., 2015. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference. 2nd. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Mueller, J.T., 2020. Natural resource dependence and rural American economic prosperity from 2000 to 2015. Economic Development Quarterly, 089124242098451. doi:10.1177/0891242420984512
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mueller, J.T., et al., 2021. Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (1), 2019378118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2019378118
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mullinix, K.J., et al., 2015. The generalizability of survey experiments. Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2 (2), 109–138. doi:10.1017/XPS.2015.19
   Google Scholar
• Nicholson, S.P., 2012. Polarizing Cues. American Journal of Political Science, 56 (1), 52–66. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00541.x
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Olson-Hazboun, S.K., 2018. “Why are we being punished and they are being rewarded?” views on renewable energy in fossil fuels-based communities of the U.S. west. The Extractive Industries and Society, 5 (3), 366–374. doi:10.1016/j.exis.2018.05.001
   Google Scholar
• Olson-Hazboun, S.K. and Howe, P.D., 2018. Public opinion on climate change in rural America: a potential barrier to resilience. In: P.R. Lachapelle and D.E. Albrecht, eds. Addressing climate change at the community level in the United States. New York, NY: Routledge, 34–48.
   Google Scholar
• Patterson, J.T., 1969. The New Deal in the West. Pacific Historical Review, 38 (3), 317–327. doi:10.2307/3636103
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pink, S.L., et al., 2021. Elite party cues increase vaccination intentions among Republicans. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (32). doi:10.1073/pnas.2106559118
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prakash, A. and Bernauer, T., 2020. Survey research in environmental politics: why it is important and what the challenges are. Environmental Politics, 29 (7), 1127–1134. doi:10.1080/09644016.2020.1789337
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rinscheid, A., Pianta, S., and Weber, E.U., 2020. What shapes public support for climate change mitigation policies? The role of descriptive social norms and elite cues. Behavioural Public Policy, 1–25.
   Google Scholar
• Scala, D.J., Johnson, K.M., and Rogers, L.T., 2015. Red rural, blue rural? Presidential voting patterns in a changing rural America. Political Geography, 48, 108–118. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2015.02.003
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Severson, A.W. and Coleman, E.A., 2015. Moral frames and climate change policy attitudes. Social Science Quarterly, 96 (5), 1277–1290. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12159
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sierra Club. (n.d.). A green new deal is already underway in states and cities. https://www.sierraclub.org/trade/green-new-deal-already-underway-states-and-cities [Accessed October 2021].
   Google Scholar
• Spence, A. and Pidgeon, N., 2010. Framing and communicating climate change: the effects of distance and outcome frame manipulations. Global Environmental Change, 20 (4), 656–667. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spence, A., et al., 2011. Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nature Climate Change, 1 (1), 46–49. doi:10.1038/nclimate1059
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stokes, L.C. and Warshaw, C., 2017. Renewable energy policy design and framing influence public support in the United States. Nature Energy, 2 (8), 1–6. doi:10.1038/nenergy.2017.107
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tickamyer, A.R. and Duncan, C.M., 1990. Poverty and opportunity structure in Rural America. Annual Review of Sociology, 16 (1), 67–86. doi:10.1146/annurev.so.16.080190.000435
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tickamyer, A.R., Sherman, J., and Warlick, J., 2017. Rural Poverty in the United States. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Tvinnereim, E., et al., 2020. Climate change risk perceptions and the problem of scale: evidence from cross-national survey experiments. Environmental Politics, 29 (7), 1178–1198. doi:10.1080/09644016.2019.1708538
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Boven, L., Ehret, P.J., and Sherman, D.K., 2018. Psychological Barriers to Bipartisan Public Support for Climate Policy. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 13 (4), 492–507. doi:10.1177/1745691617748966
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wuthnow, R., 2018. The left behind: decline and rage in Rural America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar