The Realism of Russia's Foreign Policy

References

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• On the importance of relations with the West in securing Russia's interests see President El'tsin' s 4 July 1999 message to President Clinton in the immediate aftermath of NATO's war in Serbia, as summarised in S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, p. 126, and the sober and constructive official discussion of cooperation with NATO before the war in Serbia by contrast to Russian histrionics during the war itself (although here too Russian officials took pains to distinguish their views toward NATO from those toward the separate states constituting NATO, as well as the Contact Group that included five NATO states as well as Russia): compare Diplomaticheskii vestnik, 1999, 1, pp. 15-16, 21-22, 98 with 1999, 4, pp. 9-46; `Balkanskii krizis i Rossiisko-Amerikanskie otnosheniya (situatsionnyi analiz)', S. Sh. A. i Kanada, 1999, 10, pp. 41-54; and A.M. Salmin, `Rossiya, Evropa i novyi mirovoi poryadok', Polis, 1999, 2, pp. 26-30.
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• Ibid.
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• For Russian experts' views on Kozyrev and Primakov see `Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanksie otnosheniya', pp. 45, 49, 51.
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• For background on the Moldovan civil war see Final Report on the Conflict in the Left Bank Dniestr Areas of the Republic of Moldova by the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the CSCE Council Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Director of SIPRI (Prague, 31 January 1993) as well as Adam Daniel Rotfeld, `In Search of a Political Settlement. The Case of the Conflict in Moldova', in The Challenge of Preventive Diplomacy. The Experience of the CSCE (Stockholm, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 1994 100-137, and Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 122-127.
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• Ibid., pp. 35-36
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• For background see Schmedt, Russische Aussenpolitik unter Jelzin, pp. 84-93, and Paul Kubicek, `Russian Foreign Policy and the West', Political Science Quarterly, 114, 4, Winter 1999-2000, pp. 550-554.
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• For Russian experts' differing views on the nature of Russian interests in the Balkans and in particular with respect to Kosovo see `Balkanskii krizis i rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniya', pp. 42-43.
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• 1994 . Izvestiya , 20 April : 1 Russian mediator Vitalii Churkin said at the time: `The Bosnian Serbs must understand that in Russia they are dealing with a great power, not a banana republic. Russia must decide whether a group of extremists can be allowed to use a great country's policy to achieve its own aims. Our unequivocal answer is: "never". If the Bosnian Serbs fire so much as one more volley at Gorazde, a tremendous crisis will erupt that will plunge the Serbian people into disaster', as translated in The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, XLVI, 16, 1994, p. 1
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• Igor Ivanov, the current Russian Foreign Minister, previously Primakov's deputy and long involved in Russia's Balkan diplomacy, has stated in this respect: `Our goal is to prevent differences in approach to specific problems from degenerating into a general confrontation because, in the final analysis, that would go against our own interests …'. Igor Ivanov, `La Russie et l'Asie-Pacifique', Politique Etrangere, 1999, 2, p. 310.
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• For a convincing Russian analysis that stresses both Western military pressure and Russian diplomatic flexibility as essential in moving the Belgrade and Bosnian Serbs in opening Tuzla airport, see Izvestiya, 3 March 1994, p. 2, as translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report. Central Eurasia, FBIS-SOV-94-042, 3 March 1994, pp. 11-12.
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• One indication of the domestic political damage that Kozyrev inflicted on himself with the speech, akin to Khrushchev' s banging the shoe at the General Assembly in 1960, is seen in the fact that the Foreign Ministry did not include this speech in its official documentary collection on Russian foreign policy between 1990 and 1992. His previous speeches at CSCE meetings were published. See Ministerstvo inostrannykh del Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Vneshnyaya politika Rossii. Sbornik dokumentov 1990-1992 (Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, 1996). For earlier CSCE speeches by Kozyrev, see pp. 197-199, 326-328.
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• For analysis and a wealth of primary sources see Rajan Menon, `After Empire: Russia and the Southern "Near Abroad"', in Mandelbaum (ed.), pp. 100-166; in addition see Jean Radvanyi, `Transports et geostrategie au sud de la Russie', Le Monde Diplomatique, June 1998, pp. 18-19.
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