From “science as measurement” to “measurement and theory”: the Cowles Commission and contrasting empirical methodologies at the University of Chicago, 1943 to 1955

References

• Arrow, Kenneth J., Gerard Debreu, Edmond Malinvaud, and Robert M. Solow. 1991. Cowles Fiftieth Anniversary: Four Essays and a Bibliography. New Haven, CT: Cowles Foundation.
   Google Scholar
• Boumans, Marcel, and John B. Davis. 2016. Economic Methodology. 2nd ed. London: Palgrave.
   Google Scholar
• Boumans, Marcel. 2016. “Friedman and the Cowles Commission.” In Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy, edited by Cord and Hammond, 585–604. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Burns, Arthur F. 1946. “Economic Research and the Keynesian Thinking of Our Time.” In Annual Report of the National Bureau of Economic Research; Reprinted in Arthur F. Burns, The Frontiers of Economic Knowledge. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press for NBER, 1954.
   Google Scholar
• Burns, Arthur F., and Wesley C. Mitchell. 1946. Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Burns, Arthur F. 1949. “Wesley Mitchell and the National Bureau.” In 29th Annual Report of National Bureau of Economic Research, May 1949, 1st ed. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Christ, Carl F. 1949. “A Revised Klein Econometric Model for the United States, 1921–1947.” Cowles Commission Discussion Paper No. 269.
   Google Scholar
• Christ, Carl F. 1951. “A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921–1947.” NBER (1951), 35–107; Cowles Commission Paper No. 49.
   Google Scholar
• Christ, Carl F. 1994. “The Cowles Commission’s Contributions to Econometrics at Chicago: 1939–1955.” Journal of Economic Literature 32 (1): 30–59.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Colander, David, and Craig Freedman. 2019. Where Economics Went Wrong: Chicago’s Abandonment of Classical Liberalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cord, Robert, and J. Daniel Hammond, eds. 2016. Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Cowles, Alfred 3rd. 1933. “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Econometrica 1 (3): 309–324. Reprinted in Cowles Commission Paper No. 6 (1944). doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1907042.
   Google Scholar
• Cowles, Alfred 3rd. 1944. “Stock Market Forecasting.” Econometrica 12 (3/4): 206–214. In Cowles Commission Paper No. 6. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1905433.
   Google Scholar
• Emmett, Ross B., ed. 2010. The Elgar Companion to the Chicago School of Economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Epstein, Roy. 1987. A History of Econometrics. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton, and Anna J. Schwartz. 1982. Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton, and Simon Kuznets. 1945. Income from Independent Professional Practice. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton, and Rose D. Friedman. 1998. Two Lucky People. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton. 1950. “Wesley Clair Mitchell as an Economic Theorist.” Journal of Political Economy 58 (6): 465–495. Reprinted in Burns, ed. (1952). doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/257011.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton. 1951. “Comment” (on Carl Christ 1951) in NBER (1951), 107–114.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton. 1953. “The Methodology of Positive Economics.” In Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton. 1953. Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Friedman, Milton. 1994. Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History. Orlando, FL: Harcourt Brace.
   Google Scholar
• Haavelmo, Trygve. 1944. “The Probability Approach to Econometrics.” Econometrica 12 (Supplement): iii–118. Cowles Commission Paper No. 4. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1906935.
   Google Scholar
• Hammond, J. Daniel, and Claire H. Hammond. 2006. Making Chicago Price Theory: Friedman-Stigler Correspondence 1945–1957. Abingdon: Routledge.
   Google Scholar
• Hammond, J. Daniel. 2009. “Early Drafts of Friedman’s Methodology Essay.” In The Methodology of Positive Economics, Reflections on the Milton Friedman Legacy, edited by Uskali Mäki, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson. 1991. “An Econometric Analysis of UK Money Demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz.” American Economic Review 81 (1): 8–38.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hetzel, Robert L. 2013. “The Monetarist-Keynesian Debate and the Phillips Curve: Lesson from the Great Inflation.” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 99 (2): 83–116.
   Google Scholar
• Hetzel, Robert L. 2016. “Arthur Burns and Milton Friedman.” Chap. 16 in Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy, edited by Cord and Hammond. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Hildreth, Clifford. 1986. The Cowles Commission in Chicago, 1939–1955. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
   Google Scholar
• Hood, William C., and Tjalling C. Koopmans, eds. 1953. Studies in Econometric Method, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 14. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Keynes, John Maynard. 1939. “Professor Tinbergen’s Method” [Review of Tinbergen 1939, Vol. 1].” The Economic Journal 49 (195): 558–568. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/49.195.558.
   Google Scholar
• Klein, Lawrence R. 1946. “A Post-Mortem on Transition Predictions of National Product.” Journal of Political Economy 54 (4): 289–308. Cowles Commission Paper, New Series, No. 18. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/256374.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klein, Lawrence R. 1947. “ “The Use of Econometric Models as a Guide to Economic Policy.” Econometrica 15 (2): 111–151. Cowles Commission Paper, New Series, No. 23. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1907067.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klein, Lawrence R. 1950. Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 11. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Koopmans, Tjalling C. 1941. “The Logic of Econometric Business-Cycle Research.” Journal of Political Economy 49 (2): 157–181. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/255695.
   Google Scholar
• Koopmans, Tjalling C. 1947. “Measurement without Theory.” Review of Economics and Statistics 29 (3): 161–172. In Cowles Commission Paper No. 25. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1928627.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koopmans, Tjalling C. 1949. “A Reply.” Review of Economics and Statistics 31 (2): 86–91. in Cowles Commission Paper No. 29. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1927854.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Koopmans, Tjalling C., ed. 1950. Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 10. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Koopmans, Tjalling C. 1951. “An Analysis of Production as Efficient Combination of Activities.” In Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, Proceedings of a Conference, edited by T. C. Koopmans, 33–97. London: John Wiley and Sons Inc.
   Google Scholar
• Lange, Oskar. 1944. Price Flexibility and Employment, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 8. Bloomington, IN: Principia Press; mathematical appendix, “The Stability of Economic Equilibrium,” reprinted as Cowles Commission Paper, New Series, No. 8.
   Google Scholar
• Lothian, James R., and George Tavlas. 2018. “How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 50 (4): 757–787. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12481.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Markowitz, Harry. 1949. “On the Accuracy of Naïve Models.” Cowles Commission Discussion Paper No. 339.
   Google Scholar
• Marschak, Jacob. 1950. “Statistical Inference in Economics: An Introduction.” In Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 10, edited by Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1–50. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
   Google Scholar
• Marshall, Alfred. [1885] 1925. “The Present Position of Economics.” Reprinted in Memorials of Alfred Marshall, edited by A.C. Pigou. London: Macmillan, 1925.
   Google Scholar
• Marshall, Andrew W. 1949. “A Test of Klein’s Model III for Changes of Structure.” Unpublished master’s thesis, University of Chicago; abstract (1950) in Econometrica 18(3): 291.
   Google Scholar
• Mitch, David. 2016. “A Year of Transition: Faculty Recruiting at Chicago in 1946.” Journal of Political Economy 124 (6): 1714–1734. doi:https://doi.org/10.1086/688878.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mitchell, W. C. 1913. Business Cycles. Berkeley: University of California Press.
   Google Scholar
• National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 1951. Conference on Business Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press for the NBER.
   Google Scholar
• Nelson, Edward. 2016. “Milton Friedman and Federal Reserve Chairs in the 1970s.” Chap. 17 in Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy, edited by Cord and Hammond, 313–339. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Nelson, Edward. 2020. Milton Friedman and Economic Discourse in the United States, 1932-1972, 2 volumes. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
   Google Scholar
• Shiller, Robert J. 1999. “The ET Interview: Professor James Tobin.” Econometric Theory 15 (6): 867–900. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466699156056.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sims, Christopher. 1980. “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica 48 (1): 1–48. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tinbergen, Jan. 1939. Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, 2 volumes. Geneva: League of Nations, Economic Intelligence Service; reprint in one volume, New York: Agathon Press, 1968.
   Google Scholar
• Van Horn, Robert, Philip Mirowski, and Thomas A. Stapleford, eds, 2011. Building Chicago Economics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Vining, Rutledge. 1949. “Koopmans on the Choice of Variables to Be Studied and of Methods of Measurement.” Review of Economics and Statistics 31 (2): 77–86, and “A Rejoinder.” Review of Economics and Statistics 31(2): 91–94; in Cowles Commission Paper No. 29. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1927853.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar