Political uncertainty and portfolio managers in emerging economies

REFERENCES

• Andrade , S. and Kohlscheen , E. 2010 . “ ‘Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: The Case of Brazil in 2002’ ” . School of Business Administration, University of Miami and Economics Department, University of Warwick, mimeo (unpublished) .
   Google Scholar
• Avendaño , R. and Santiso , J. 2009 . “ ‘Are Sovereign Wealth Funds’ Investments Politically Biased? Comparison with Mutual Funds’ ” . OECD Development Centre Working Paper, No. 283 .
   Google Scholar
• Bernhard , W. and Leblang , D. 2002 . ‘Democratic Processes, Political Risk, and Foreign Exchange Markets’ . American Journal of Political Science , 46 ( 2 ) : 316 – 33 . doi: 10.2307/3088379
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bernhard , W. and Leblang , D. 2006 . Democratic Processes and Financial Markets: Pricing Politics , Cambridge , MA : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Besley , T. and Kudamatsu , M. 2008 . “ ‘Making Autocracy Work’ ” . In Institutions and Economic Performance , Edited by: Helpman , E. 452 – 510 . Harvard University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Brooks , S. and Mosley , L. 2008 . “ ‘Risk, Uncertainty and Autonomy: Financial Market Constraints in Developing Nations’ ” . mimeo .
   Google Scholar
• Campello , D. 2009 . “ ‘Do Markets Vote? A Systematic Analysis of Portfolio Investors’ Response to National Elections’ ” . Department of Politics, Princeton University, mimeo .
   Google Scholar
• Campos , N. and Coricelli , F. 2009 . “ ‘Financial Liberalization and Democracy: The Role of Reform Reversals’ ” . CEPR Working Paper, 7393 .
   Google Scholar
• Chang , R. 2007 . ‘Financial Crises and Political Crises’ . Journal of Monetary Economics , 54 ( 8 ) : 2409 – 420 . doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.03.001
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cho , H. 2006 . “ ‘Can Certainty Save Cost? ” . Partisan Politics, Credibility, and Government Bonds Markets’, American Political Science Association 2006 Meeting Paper .
   Google Scholar
• Cox , G. W. and McCubbins , M. D. 2001 . “ ‘The Institutional Determinants of Economic Policy Outcomes’ ” . In Presidents, Parliaments, and Policy , Edited by: Haggard and McCubbins , M. D. 21 – 63 . Cambridge : Cambridge University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Eichengreen , B. and Leblang , D. 2006 . “ ‘Democracy and Globalization’ ” . BIS Working Papers, 219 .
   Google Scholar
• Ferguson , N. 2006 . ‘Political Risk and the International Bond Market between the 1848 Revolution and the Outbreak of the First World War’ . Economic History Review , 59 ( 1 ) : 70 – 112 . doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0289.2005.00335.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ferguson , N. 2008 . The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World , New York : Penguin Press .
   Google Scholar
• Ferguson , T. and Voth , H. J. 2008 . ) ‘Betting on Hitler – The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany’ . Quarterly Journal of Economics , 123 ( 1 ) : 101 – 37 . doi: 10.1162/qjec.2008.123.1.101
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Frot , E. and Santiso , J. 2010 . “ ‘Portfolio Managers and Elections in Emerging Economies: How Investors Dislike Political Uncertainty’ ” . SITE Working Paper, No. 9 .
   Google Scholar
• Gehlbach , S. and Malesky , E. J. 2010 . ‘The Contribution of Veto Players to Economic Reform’ . The Journal of Politics , 72 ( 4 ) : 957 – 75 . doi: 10.1017/S0022381610000460
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gerring , J. , Thacker , S. C. and Moreno , C. 2009 . ‘Are Parliamentary Systems Better?’ . Comparative Political Studies , 42 ( 3 ) : 327 – 59 . doi: 10.1177/0010414008325573
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Goldman Sachs . 2002 . ‘The Lulameter’ . Emerging Markets Strategy , : 02/10
   Google Scholar
• Gourevitch , P. , Pinto , P. and Weymouth , S. 2010 . ‘The Politics of Stock Market Development’ . Review of International Political Economy , 17, 2 ( 2 ) : 378 – 409 .
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haber , S. H. , North , D. C. and Weingast , B. R. 2008 . “ ‘Political Institutions and Financial Development’ ” . Stanford University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Jensen , N. M. 2003 . ‘Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment’ . International Organization , 57 ( 3 ) : 587 – 616 . doi: 10.1017/S0020818303573040
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jensen , N. M. 2008 . ‘Political Risk, Democratic Institutions, and Foreign Direct Investment’ . The Journal of Politics , 70 ( 4 ) : 1040 – 52 . doi: 10.1017/S0022381608081048
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jensen , N. M. and Schmith , S. 2005 . ‘Market Responses to Politics: The Rise of Lula and the Decline of Brazilian Stock Market’ . Comparative Political Studies , 38 ( 1 ) : 245 – 70 . doi: 10.1177/0010414005279790
   Google Scholar
• Li , Q. and Resnick , A. 2003 . ‘Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Developing Countries’ . International Organization , 57 ( 1 ) : 175 – 211 . doi: 10.1017/S0020818303571077
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MacIntyre , A. 2001 . ‘Institutions and Investors: The Politics of the Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia’ . International Organization , 55 ( 1 ) : 81 – 122 . doi: 10.1162/002081801551423
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Martínez , J. and Santiso , J. 2003 . ‘Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies’ . International Political Science Review , 24 ( 3 ) : 363 – 97 . doi: 10.1177/0192512103024003005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mei , J . 1999 . “ ‘Political Risk, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility’ ” . NYU Working Paper No. S-MF-99-08 .
   Google Scholar
• Mosley , L. and Singer , A. 2008 . ‘Taking Stock Seriously: Equity Market Performance, Government Policy, and Financial Globalization’ . International Studies Quarterly , 52 ( 2 ) : 405 – 25 . doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00507.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pastor , L. and Veronesi , P. 2010 . “ ‘Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices’ ” . NBER Working Paper, 16128 .
   Google Scholar
• Persson , T. and Tabellini , G. 2003 . The Economic Effects of Constitutions , Cambridge , MA : MIT Press .
   Google Scholar
• Rodrik , D. 1991 . ‘Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries’ . Journal of Development Economics , 36 : 229 – 42 . doi: 10.1016/0304-3878(91)90034-S
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Santa-Clara , P. and Valkanov , R. 2003 . ‘The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market’ . Journal of Finance , 58 : 1841 – 72 . doi: 10.1111/1540-6261.00590
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spanakos , T. P. and Renno , L. R. 2009 . ‘Bonds, Stocks or Dollars? Do Voters Care About Capital Markets in Brazil and Mexico’ . American Political Science Association 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper
   Google Scholar
• Tsebelis , G. 2002 . “ ‘Veto Players: How Political Investors Work’ ” . Princeton : Princeton University Press .
   Google Scholar
• Vaaler , P. , Schrage , B. and Block , S. 2005 . ‘Counting the Investor Vote: Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Spreads in Developing Countries’ . Journal of International Business Studies , 36 ( 1 ) : 62 – 88 . doi: 10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400111
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weymouth , S. 2011 . ‘Political Institutions and Property Rights: Veto Players and Foreign Exchange Commitments in 127 Countries’ . Comparative Political Studies , 44 ( 2 ) : 211 – 40 . doi: 10.1177/0010414010382629
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar