Analysing past land use land cover change and CA-Markov-based future modelling in the Middle Suluh Valley, Northern Ethiopia

References

• Agarwal C, Green GM, Grove JM, Evans TP, Schweik CM. 2002. A review and assessment of land-use change models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-297. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.6514
   Google Scholar
• Ahmed B, Ahmed R, Zhu X. 2013. Evaluation of model validation techniques in land cover dynamics. IJGI. 2(3):577–597. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi2030577
   Google Scholar
• Balana BB, Muys B, Haregeweyn N, Descheemaeker K, Deckers J, Poesen J, Nyssen J, Mathijs E. 2012. Cost-benefit analysis of soil and water conservation measure: the case of exclosures in northern Ethiopia. Forest Policy Econ. 1527–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.09.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bewket W. 2002. Land cover dynamics since the 1950s in Chemoga watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Mt Res Dev. 22(3):263–269. http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2002)022[0263:LCDSTI]2.0.CO;2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bewket W, Abebe S. 2013. Land-use and land-cover change and its environmental implications in a tropical highland watershed, Ethiopia. Int J Environ Stud. 70(1):126–139. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2012.755765
   Google Scholar
• Bizuneh A. 2014. Modeling the effect of climate and land use change on the water resources in northern Ethiopia: the case of Suluh River Basin [PhD thesis]. Freie Universität Berlin.
   Google Scholar
• CSA 1995. The 1994 population and housing census of Ethiopia. Results for Tigray Region, Volume I, Statistical report. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
   Google Scholar
• CSA 2007. Population and housing census of Ethiopia, Tigray Region. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
   Google Scholar
• CSA 2015. Central statistics agency, population: section B. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
   Google Scholar
• Fleiss JL, Levin B, Paik MC. 2003. Statistical methods for rates and proportions. 3rd ed. NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
   Google Scholar
• Gashaw T, Tulu T, Argaw M, Worqlul AW. 2017. Evaluation and prediction of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res. 6(1):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-017-0094-5
   Google Scholar
• Gebrehiwot T, Van Der VA. 2013. Assessing the evidence of climate variability in the northern part of Ethiopia. J Dev Agric Econ. 5(3):104–119. https://doi.org/10.5897/JDAE12.056
   Google Scholar
• Gebrelibanos T, Assen M. 2015. Land use/land cover dynamics and their driving forces in the Hirmi watershed and its adjacent agro-ecosystem, highlands of Northern Ethiopia. J Land Use Sci. 10(1):81–94. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2013.845614
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gidey E, Dikinya O, Sebego R, Segosebe E, Zenebe A. 2017. Cellular automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model-based predictions of future land use and land cover scenarios (2015 – 2033) in Raya, northern Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ. 3(4):1245–1218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-017-0397-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hadgu G, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Belay K. 2013. Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. Acad J Agr Res. 1(6):88–100. Retrieved from http://www.academiapublishing.org/ajar
   Google Scholar
• Hagos F, Pender J, Gebreselassie N. 1999. Land degradation in the Highlands of Tigray and strategies for sustainable land management.
   Google Scholar
• Halmy WMA, Gessler PE, Hicke JA, Salem BB. 2015. Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA. Appl Geogr. 63:101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.06.015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hishe S, Lyimo J, Bewket W. 2017. Effects of soil and water conservation on vegetation cover : a remote sensing based study in the Middle Suluh Valley, northern Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res. 6(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-017-0103-8
   Google Scholar
• Houghton R. 1994. The worldwide extent of land-use change. Bioscience. 44(5):305–313.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kabat P, Claussen M, Dirmeyer PA, Gash JHC, de Guenni LB, Meybeck M, …, Liitkemeier S. 2004. Vegetation, human and the climate: a new perspective on an interactive system. Ecosystems 1st ed. Verlag Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18948-7
   Google Scholar
• Kim I, Le QB, Park SJ, Tenhunen J, Koellner T. 2014. driving forces in archetypical land-use changes in a mountainous watershed in East Asia. Land. 3(3):957–980. https://doi.org/10.3390/land3030957
   Google Scholar
• Kindu M, Schneider T, Teketay D, Knoke T. 2015. Drivers of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia. Environ Monit Assess. 187(7):452. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-015-4671-7
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kindu M, Worku Z. 2011. Landuse/landcover change analysis in selected drylands of Ethiopia: Implication for sustainable development. In: Research and development in dryland of forest in Ethiopia. Proceedings of the National Workshop Organized by Forestry Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) & Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Forum for Environment; p. 123–135.
   Google Scholar
• Kumar S, Radhakrishnan N, Mathew S. 2014. Land use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing. Geomat Nat Haz Risk. 5(2):145–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2013.795502
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lambin EF, Geist HJ. 2006. Land-use and land-cover change: local processes and global impact. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
   Google Scholar
• Li X, Wang Y, Li J, Lei B. 2016. Physical and socioeconomic driving forces of land-use and land-cover changes: a case study of Wuhan City, China. Discrete Dyn Nat Soc. 2016(8061069):1–11.
   Google Scholar
• Mahmood R, Hubbard KG, Niyogi D, Bonan G. 2010. Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities. Am Meteorol Soc. 91(1):37–46.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meaza H, Tsegaye D, Nyssen J. 2016. Allocation of degraded hillsides to landless farmers and improved livelihoods in Tigray, Ethiopia. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift. 70(1):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2015.1091033
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meire E, Frankl A, De Wulf A, Haile M, Deckers J, & Nyssen J. 2013. Land use and cover dynamics in Africa since the nineteenth century: Warped terrestrial photographs of North Ethiopia. Regional Environmental Change, 13(3), 717–737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0347-9
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Memarian H, Balasundram SK, Talib J, Bin Teh C, Sung B, Sood AM, Abbaspour K. 2012. Validation of CA-Markov for simulation of land use and cover change in the Langat Basin, Malaysia. JGIS. 04(06):4, 542–554. https://doi.org/10.4236/jgis.2012.46059
   Google Scholar
• Mujiono, Indra TL, Harmantyo D, Rukmana IP, Nadia Z. 2017. Simulation of land use change and effect on potential deforestation using Markov chain – cellular automata. In: American Institute of Physics (AIP) Conference Proceeding, Vol. 1862; p. 030177–030178. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4991281
   Google Scholar
• Muys B, Nyssen J, Du Toit B, Vidale E, Prokofieva I, Mavsar R, Palahi M. 2014. Water-related ecosystem services of forests: learning from regional cases. In: Forests under pressure – local responses to global issues; p. 423–440.
   Google Scholar
• Nyssen J, Frankl A, Zenebe A, Deckers J, Poesen J. 2015. Land management in the northern Ethiopian highlands: local and global perspectives; past, present and future. Land. Land Degrad Develop. 26(7):759–764. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2336
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nyssen J, Munro N, Haile M, Poesen J, Deschee K, Haregeweyn N, Moeyersons J, Govers G. 2007. Understanding the environmental changes in Tigray: a photographic record over 30 years (Tigray Livelihood Paper no. 3).
   Google Scholar
• Nyssen J, Poesen J, Moeyersons J, Deckers J, Haile M, Lang A. 2004. Human impact on the environment in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands – a state of the art. Earth-Sci Rev. 64(3–4):273–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-8252(03)00078-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Omar NQ, Sanusi SAM, Hussin WMW, Samat N, Mohammed KS. 2014. Markov-CA model using analytical hierarchy process and multiregression technique. Iop Conf Ser: Earth Environ Sci. 20012008–20012018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/20/1/012008
   Google Scholar
• Pedro C, Alexander Z. 2009. Markov processes in modelling land use and land cover changes in Sintra – Cascias, Portugal. DYNA. 76(158):191–198. Retrieved from http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id = 49612069019
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pontius RG, Boersma W, Castella J-C, Clarke K, de Nijs T, Dietzel C, Duan Z, Fotsing E, Goldstein N, Kok K, et al. 2008. Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Ann Reg Sci. 42(1):11–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pontius R, Castella J-C, De Nijs T, Duan Z, Fotsing E, Goldstein N, Kok K, Koomen E, Lippitt CD, McConnell W, et al. 2018. Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons. In: M. Behnisch, G. Meinel, editors. Trends in spatial analysis and modelling. Springer Cham; p. 143–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52522-8
   Google Scholar
• Pontius R, Millones M. 2011. Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int J Remote Sens. 32(15):4407–4429. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.552923
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pontius R, Peethambaram S, Castella J. 2011. Comparison of three maps at multiple resolutions: a case study of land change simulation in cho don district, Vietnam. Ann Assoc Am Geogr. 101(1):45–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.517742
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Prasad PRC, Rajan KS, Dutt CBS, Roy PS. 2010. A conceptual framework to analyse the land-use/land-cover changes and its impact on phytodiversity: a case study of North Andaman Islands, India. Biodivers Conserv. 19(11):3073–3087. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-010-9880-3
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rozario PF, Oduor P, Kotchman L, Kangas M. 2017. Transition modeling of land-use dynamics in the Pipestem Creek, North Dakota, USA. GEP. 05(03):182–201. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2017.53013
   Google Scholar
• Saaty TL. 1980. The analytic hierarchy process: planning, priority setting, resource allocation. McGraw-Hill International Book Co.
   Google Scholar
• Sayemuzzaman M, Jha MK. 2014. Modeling of future land cover land use change in North Carolina using Markov chain and cellular automata model. Am J Eng Appl Sci. 7(3):295–306. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajeassp.2014.295.306
   Google Scholar
• Sewnet A. 2013. Retrospective analysis of land cover and use dynamics in Gilgel Abbay watershed by using GIS and remote sensing techniques, Northwestern Ethiopia. Int J Geosci. (4), 1003–1008. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2013.47093
   Google Scholar
• Sewnet A. 2016. Land use/cover change at Infraz watershed by using GIS and remote sensing techniques, northwestern Ethiopia. Int J River Basin Manage. 14(2):133–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2015.1095199
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Singh A. 1989. Digital change detection techniques using remotely-sensed data. Int J Remote Sens. 10(6):989–1003. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431168908903939
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• UNEP 2014. Assessing global land use: balancing consumption with sustainable supply. a report of the working group on land and soils of the international resource panel. Bringezu S., Schütz H., Pengue W., O´Brien M., Garcia F., Sims R., Howarth R., Kauppi L., Swilli.
   Google Scholar
• Vázquez-Quintero G, Solís-Moreno R, Pompa-García M, Villarreal-Guerrero F, Pinedo-Alvarez C, Pinedo-Alvarez A. 2016. Detection and projection of forest changes by using the Markov chain model and cellular automata. Sustainability. 8(3):236–213. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8030236
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Whiting A. 2017. Ethiopia’s Tigray Region bags gold award for greening its drylands. Retrieved November 25, 2017, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-land-farming/ethiopias-tigray-region-bags-gold-award-for-greening-its-drylands-idUSKCN1B21CT
   Google Scholar
• Wood EC, Tappan GG, Hadj A. 2004. Understanding the drivers of agricultural land use change in south-central Senegal. J Arid Environ. 59(3):565–582. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.03.022
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wu W, Yeager KM, Peterson MS, Fulford RS. 2015. Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Ecol Modell. 30355–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.008
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yagoub MM, Al Bizreh AA. 2014. Prediction of land cover change using Markov and cellular automata models: case of Al-Ain, UAE, 1992-2030. J Indian Soc Remote Sens. 42(3):665–671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-013-0353-5
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yalew S, Mul M, van Griensven A, Teferi E, Priess J, Schweitzer C, van Der Zaag P. 2016. Land-use change modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Environments. 3(4):21–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021
   Google Scholar
• Yirsaw E, Wu W, Shi X, Temesgen H, Bekele B. 2017. Land use/land cover change modeling and the prediction of subsequent changes in ecosystem service values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region. Sustainability. 9(7):1204–1217. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071204
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yuan T, Yiping X, Ley Z, Danqing L. 2015. Land use and cover change simulation and prediction in Hangzhou city based on CA-Markov model. Int Proc Chem Biol Environ Eng. 90:2617108–2617113. https://doi.org/10.7763/IPCBEE.
   Google Scholar