520
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Articles

Predicting the current and future distributions of major food crop designated geographical indications (GIs) in China under climate change

ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Pages 8148-8171 | Received 05 Jul 2021, Accepted 08 Oct 2021, Published online: 28 Oct 2021

References

  • Barbet-Massin M, Jiguet F, Albert C, Thuiller W. 2012. Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: How, Where and How Many? Methods Ecol Evol. 3(2):327–338.
  • Cao B, Bai C, Xue Y, Yang J, Gao P, Liang H, Zhang L, Che L, Wang J, Xu J, et al. 2020. Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change. Sci Total Environ. 731:138518.
  • Mason CH, Perreault WD. Jr. 1991. Collinearity, power, and interpretation of multiple regression analysis. Journal of Marketing Research. 28(3):268–280.
  • Che L, Cao B, Bai C-K, Wang J-J, Zhang L-L. 2014. Predictive distribution and habitat suitability assessment of Notholirion bulbuliferum based on MaxEnt and arcGIS. Chinese J Ecol. 33:1623–1628.
  • Chen Y. 2010. Comprehensive evaluation of future change trends in suitable areas for planting major crops in China [dissertation]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University.
  • Cheng Q, Ling S. 2013. Analysis on the Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Intangible Cultural Heritage. Geogr. Sci. 10:1166–1172. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Chilla T, Fink B, Balling R, Reitmeier S, Schober K. 2020. The EU Food Label ‘Protected Geographical Indication’: Economic Implications and Their Spatial Dimension. Sustainability. 12(14):5503.
  • Clark J, Wang Y, August P. 2014. Assessing current and projected suitable habitats for tree-of-heaven along the Appalachian Trail. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 369(1643):20130192.
  • Cohen JA. 1960. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Psychol Bull. 20(1):37–46.
  • Engelhardt T. 2015. Geographical Indications Under Recent EU Trade Agreements. IIC. 46(7):781–818.
  • Eyring V, Bony S, Meehl G, Senior C, Stevens B, Ronald S, Taylor K. 2015. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation. Geosci Model Dev Discuss. 8:10539–10583.
  • Fernández-Ferrín P, Bande B, Galan - Ladero MM, Martín-Consuegra Navarro D, Díaz E, Castro-González S. 2019. Geographical indication food products and ethnocentric tendencies: The importance of proximity, tradition, and ethnicity. J Clean Prod. 241:118210.
  • Ferrer-Pérez H, Abdelradi F, Gil J. 2020. Geographical Indications and Price Volatility Dynamics of Lamb Prices in Spain. Sustainability. 12(7):3048.
  • Fick SE, Hijmans RJ. 2017. WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 37(12):4302–4315.
  • Fleiss JL. 1981. Statistical methods for rates and proportions. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley.
  • Gao J, Liu S. 2011. Climate warming and land use change in Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China. Appl Geograph. 31(2):476–482.
  • Guo Q, Zhong Y, Huang M, Zha Z. 2013. Products of Geographical Indications and Their Distribution in Jiangxi Province. Tropical Geogr. 4:444–449. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Guo Q, Song M, Zhou Y, Liu L. 2015. Research on evaluation of brand value of agricultural geographical indications in Shanxi based on interbrand. Res Agric Mod. 36(3):450–455.
  • He Q, Zhou G. 2012. The climate suitability of the distribution of corn planting areas in China. Chin Sci Bull. 4:67–75. In Chinese with English Abstract
  • Hernandez P, Graham C, Master L, Albert D. 2006. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography. 29(5):773–785.
  • Hoang G, Le h, Hoang Anh N, Dao Q. 2020. The impact of geographical indications on sustainable rural development: A case study of the Vietnamese Cao Phong Orange. Sustainability. 12(11):4711.
  • Hu Y, Liu Y. 2013. Planting distribution of spring maize and its productivity under RCP4.5 scenario in Northeast China in 2011–2050. Sci Agricult Sin. 46(15):3105–3114. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Hu Z, Sun Z, Xiong W, Huang L, Wang S. 2013. Protection of geographical indication and intangible cultural heritage of the chrysanthemum resources. Asian Agric Res. 5:1–5.
  • Hu W, Wang Y, Zhang D, Yu W, Chen G, Xie T, Liu Z, Ma Z, Du J, Chao B, et al. 2020. Mapping the potential of mangrove forest restoration based on species distribution models: A case study in China. Sci Total Environ. 748:142321.
  • Huang X, Ma L, Chen C, Zhou H, Yao B-Q, Ma Z. 2020. Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model. Plants. 9(8):1015.
  • Hysa A, Başkaya FAT. 2019. A GIS based method for indexing the broad-leaved forest surfaces by their wildfire ignition probability and wildfire spreading capacity. Model Earth Syst Environ. 5(1):71–84.
  • Jantyik L, Torok A. 2020. Estimating the market share and price premium of gi foods—the case of the Hungarian food discounters. Sustainability. 12(3):1094.
  • Jayasinghe SL, Kumar L. 2020. Climate change may imperil tea production in the four major tea producers according to climate prediction models. Agronomy. 10(10):1536–1521.
  • Jaynes E. 1982. On the rationale of maximum entropy methods. Proc IEEE. 70(9):939–952.
  • Jena P, Grote U. 2010. Changing institutions to protect regional heritage: A case for geographical indications in the Indian Agrifood sector. Dev Policy Rev. 28(2):217–236.
  • Jiang F, Zhang J, Gao H, Cai Z, Zhou X, Li S, Zhang T. 2020. Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China. Sci Total Environ. 704:135335.
  • Josling T. 2006. The War on Terroir: Geographical Indications as a Transatlantic Trade Conflict. J Agricultural Economics. 57(3):337–363.
  • Kemp C, Silverman B. 1987. Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Stat. 36(4):420.
  • Kireeva I, O'Connor B. 2010. Geographical indications and the TRIPS agreement: What protection is provided to geographical indications in WTO members? J World Intellect Prop. 13(2):275–303.
  • Li G, Li Y, Huang G, Luo Z, Wang Q, Liu Q, Yan Z, Zhao Y. 2012. Response of dryland spring wheat yield to elevated CO2 concentration and temperature by APSIM model. Chinese J. Eco. Agric. 20(8):1088–1095.
  • Li B, Yin S, Liu PL, Dou YD. 2016. Spatial distribution of traditional villages and influence factors in Hunan Province. J Landscape Res. 8(02):63–67. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Li M, Gao X, Pan J, Xiong W, Guo L, Lin E, Li K. 2021. Possible trends of rice yield in China under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2.0. J Nat Resour. 36(3):567.
  • Lin Q, Lian Z. 2018. On protection of intangible cultural heritage in China from the intellectual property rights perspective. Sustainability. 10(12):4369.
  • Liu H. 2011. Spatial distribution characteristics of geographical indications and brand spillover effects: An empirical study based on the geographical indication data of 3 Departments in China. Financial Res. 10:48–57. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Liu Z, Li Z, Tang P, Li Z, Wenbin W, Yang P, You L, Tang H. 2013. Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades. J Geogr Sci. 23(6):1005–1018.
  • Liu G, Zhang Q, Yin G, Musyimi Z. 2016. Spatial distribution of geographical indications for agricultural products and their drivers in China. Environ Earth Sci. 75(7):1–10.
  • Liu G, Doronzo D. 2020. A novel approach to bridging physical, cultural, and socioeconomic indicators with spatial distributions of Agricultural Heritage Systems (AHS) in China. Sustainability. 12(17):6921.
  • Lu L, Li G, Yan L, Nie Z, Ru X. 2020. Climate changes in middle of Gansu Province from 1971 to 2017 and its impact on yield of dryland spring wheat. J Triticeae Crops. 40(2):234–242. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Marie-Vivien D. 2020. Protection of Geographical Indications in ASEAN countries: Convergences and challenges to awakening sleeping Geographical Indications. J World Intellect Prop. 23:328–349.
  • Mason-D'Croz D, Sulser TB, Wiebe K, Rosegrant MW, Lowder SK, Nin-Pratt A, Willenbockel D, Robinson S, Zhu T, Cenacchi N, et al. 2019. Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 - Zero Hunger. World Dev. 116:38–53.
  • Medeiros M, Terra LA, Passador J. 2020. Geographical indications and territorial development: A soft-system methodology analysis of the Serro Case. Syst Res Behav Sci. 37(1):82–96.
  • Menzel A, Fabian P. 1999. Growing season extend in Europe. Nature. 397(6721):659–659.
  • Moreno R, Zamora R, Molina JR, Vasquez A, Herrera MÁ. 2011. Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using Maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Ecol Inform. 6(6):364–370.
  • O'Neill BC, Tebaldi C, van Vuuren DP, Eyring V, Friedlingstein P, Hurtt G, Knutti R, Kriegler E, Lamarque J-F, Lowe J, et al. 2016. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev. 9(9):3461–3482.
  • Parasecoli F, Tasaki A. 2011. Shared meals and food fights: geographical indications, rural development, and the environment. Environ Soc Adv Res. 2:106–123.
  • Park S. 2020. Taking cultural goods seriously: geographical indications and the renegotiation strategies for the Korea‐EU FTA. Glob Policy. 11(S2):23–30.
  • Parzen E. 1962. On estimation of probability density function and mode. Ann Math Statist. 33(3):1065–1076.
  • Pearson R, Raxworthy CJ, Nakamura M, Peterson AT. 2006. Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. J Biogeogr. 34(1):102–117.
  • Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Modell. 190(3-4):231–259.
  • Phillips S, Dudík M. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with MAXENT: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography. 31(2):161–175.
  • Raimondi V, Falco C, Curzi D, Olper A. 2020. Trade effects of geographical indication policy: The EU case. J Agric Econ. 71(2):330–356.
  • Rocha FG, Tulla AF. 2015. Geographical indication of agricultural products: The current situation and prospects for family farms in Brazil. Documents d’Analisi Geografica. 61(1):67–89.
  • Rosenblatt M. 1956. Remarks on some nonparametric estimate of a density function. Ann Math Statist. 27(3):832–835.
  • Samarakoon AB, Muller WJ, Gifford R. 1995. Transpiration and leaf area under elevated CO2: effects of soil water status and genotype in wheat. Functional Plant Biol. 22(1):33–44.
  • Shang X, Li B. 2013. Characteristics, trend and its problem to development and operation of national agro-product geographical indications: A study on departments of MOA, GAQSIQ and SAIC. Ecol Econ. 4:92–97. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Shen S, Chen X, Han M. 2020. Industrial Restructuring and spatial distribution of Northeast Revitalization—comprehensive analysis based on revitalization goals, resource advantages and logistics costs. Econ Rev J. 6:102–108. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Sorgho Z, Larue B. 2014. Geographical indication regulation and intra-trade in the European Union. Agric Econ. 45(S1):1–12.
  • Sun Q. 2012. Geographic logo products and county economic development. J Nanjing Agricultural Univ (Soc Sci Ed). 12(1):37–42. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Sun J, Zhou G. 2012. Inter-decadal Variability of Winter Wheat Planting Zone in China during 1961 to 2010 Simulated by Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). Chin J Agrometeorol. 33(04):481–487. doi: CNKI:SUN:ZGNY.0.2012-04-001. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Sun S. 2015. The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China. The variation of potential light-temperature suitable cultivation zone of winter wheat in China under climate change. Sci Agric Sin. 48:1926–1941.
  • Sun S, Zhang Y, Huang D, Wang H, Cao Q, Fan P, Yang N, Zheng P, Wang R. 2020. The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China. Sci Total Environ. 744:140786.
  • Swets JA. 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science. 240(4857):1285–1293.
  • Tian L, Sun Z, Ma X, Peng S, Zhao X. 2015. Research on spatial distribution of geographical indications in China and its influence factors. Guangdong Agricultural Sci. 42(19):166–172. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Tognelli M, Roig S, Marvaldi A, Flores G, Lobo J. 2009. An evaluation of methods for modelling distribution of Patagonian insects. Rev Chil Hist Nat. 82:347–360.
  • United Nations 2015. Transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. In the General Assembly. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld/publication.
  • Vandecandelaere E, Teyssier C, Barjolle D, Fournier S, Beucherie O, Jeanneaux P. 2020. Strengthening sustainable food systems through geographical indications: evidence from 9 worldwide case studies. J. Sustain. Res. 2(4):e200031.
  • Wang T, Lin M, Wu D, Zhou G. 2016. The distribution characteristics and humanistic causes of agricultural geographical indication products in Zhejiang Province. Zhejiang Agricultural Sci. 2016, 57(011):1760–1762. 1765. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Wang B, Xu Y, Ran J. 2017. Predicting suitable habitat of the Chinese monal (Lophophorus lhuysii) using ecological niche modeling in the Qionglai Mountains, China. PeerJ. 5:e3477.
  • Xia L, Jiang D, Sui W. 2014. Distribution characteristics and growth effect of geographical indication. Agric Econ Manag. 3:57–66. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Xiong L, Zhang A, Ma Y, Zhao Z, Di N, Zhao Z. 2020. Progress and Countermeasures of quality regionalization of high-quality wheat in Xinjiang. Modern Agricul Sci Technol. 6:48–49. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Yao H, Zuo X, Zuo D, Lin H, Huang X, Zang C. 2020. Study on soybean potential productivity and food security assessment in China under the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak. Geogr Sustain. 1(2):163–171.
  • Yeung M, Kerr W. 2011. Are geographical indications a wise strategy for developing country farmers? Greenfields, clawbacks and monopoly rents. J world intellect prop. 14(5):353–367.
  • Yu JZ. 2008. Agriculture and brand strategy for the protection of geographical indications: As an example of “Mayang Citrus” Registered trademark. Econ. Geogr. 28(6):995998. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Yu M, Zhu F. 2010. Potato growth and development and requirements for environmental conditions. Heilongjiang Sci Technol Inform. 2010, 20:211.( In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Zhang DF, Zhang Q, Guo J, Sun CZ, Wu JJ, Nie X, Xie CX. 2017. Research on the global ecological suitability and characteristics of regions with Angelica sinensis based on the MaxEnt model. Acta Ecol Sin. 37:5111–5120. (In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Zhang K, Yao L, Meng J, Tao J. 2018. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change. Sci Total Environ. 634:1326–1334.
  • Zhang C, Wu S, Leng G. 2020. Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2. J Geogr Sci. 30(8):1219–1232.
  • Zhao G. 2010. Ecology characteristics of Chinese wheat planting region. J Triticeae Crops. 30:684–686. In Chinese with English Abstract)
  • Zhao J, Zhang L, Chen X. 2015. Research on the spatial pattern and influencing factors of geographical indications of agricultural products in Jiangsu Province. Res Agricult Modernn. 36(4):568–574.
  • Zheng JY, Ge QS, Zhao HX. 2003. Changes of plant phenological period and its response to climate change for the last 40 years in China. Chinese J Agrometeorol. 24:28–32.
  • Zhu A, Lu G, Liu J, Qin C, Zhou C. 2018. Spatial prediction based on Third Law of Geography. Ann Gis. 24(4):225–240.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.