1,667
Views
3
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Identifying inter-seasonal drought characteristics using binary outcome panel data models

ORCID Icon, , , ORCID Icon, &
Article: 2178527 | Received 15 Nov 2022, Accepted 06 Feb 2023, Published online: 20 Feb 2023

References

  • Adib A, Marashi SS. 2019. Meteorological drought monitoring and preparation of long-term and short-term drought zoning maps using regional frequency analysis and L-moment in the Khuzestan province of Iran. Theor Appl Climatol. 137(1–2):77–87.
  • Adib A, Tavancheh F. 2019. Relationship between hydrologic and metrological droughts using the streamflow drought indices and standardized precipitation indices in the Dez Watershed of Iran. Int J Civ Eng. 17(7):1171–1181.
  • Ali Z, Hussain I, Faisal M, Khan DM, Niaz R, Elashkar EE, Shoukry AM. 2020. Propagation of the multi-scalar aggregative standardized precipitation temperature index and its application. Water Resour Manage. 34(2):699–714.
  • Ali Z, Hussain I, Faisal M, Nazir HM, Moemen MAE, Hussain T, Shamsuddin S. 2017. A novel multi-scalar drought index for monitoring drought: the standardized precipitation temperature index. Water Resour Manage. 31(15):4957–4969.
  • Aadhar S, Mishra V. 2022. Challenges in drought monitoring and assessment in India. Water Secur. 16:100120.
  • Afshar MH, Bulut B, Duzenli E, Amjad M, Yilmaz MT. 2022. Global spatiotemporal consistency between meteorological and soil moisture drought indices. Agric For Meteorol. 316:108848.
  • Alahacoon N, Edirisinghe M. 2022. A comprehensive assessment of remote sensing and traditional based drought monitoring indices at global and regional scale. Geomatics Nat Hazards Risk. 13(1):762–799.
  • Alawsi MA, Zubaidi SL, Al-Bdairi NSS, Al-Ansari N, Hashim K. 2022. Drought forecasting: a review and assessment of the hybrid techniques and data pre-processing. Hydrology. 9(7):115.
  • Anderegg WR, Trugman AT, Badgley G, Konings AG, Shaw J. 2020. Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts. Nat Clim Chang. 10(12):1091–1095.
  • Angelidis P, Maris F, Kotsovinos N, Hrissanthou V. 2012. Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions. Water Resour Manage. 26(9):2453–2473.
  • Anjum SA, Saleem MF, Cheema MA, Bilal MF, Khaliq T. 2012. An assessment to vulnerability, extent, characteristics and severity of drought hazard in Pakistan. Pak J Sci. 64(2):138.
  • Arabameri A, Chandra Pal S, Santosh M, Chakrabortty R, Roy P, Moayedi H. 2022. Drought risk assessment: integrating meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-economic factors using ensemble models and geospatial techniques. Geocarto Int. 37(21):6087–6115.
  • Arellano M, Carrasco R. 2003. Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables. J Econometr. 115(1):125–157.
  • Aryal Y, Zhu J. 2021. Evaluating the performance of regional climate models to simulate the US drought and its connection with El Nino Southern Oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol. 145(3–4):1259–1273.
  • Bachmair S, Svensson C, Prosdocimi I, Hannaford J, Stahl K. 2017. Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci. 17(11):1947–1960.
  • Bae H, Ji H, Lim YJ, Ryu Y, Kim MH, Kim BJ. 2019. Characteristics of drought propagation in South Korea: relationship between meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. Nat Hazards. 99(1):1–16.
  • Cerpa Reyes LJ, Ávila Rangel H, Herazo LCS. 2022. Adjustment of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the evaluation of drought in the arroyo pechelín basin, Colombia, under zero monthly precipitation conditions. Atmosphere. 13(2):236.
  • Charbonneau KB. 2017. Multiple fixed effects in binary response panel data models. Econometr J. 20(3):S1–S13.
  • Chauhan V, Suman HK, Bolia NB. 2016. Binary logistic model for estimation of mode shift into Delhi Metro. Open Trans J. 10(1):124–136.
  • Chen XD, Su Y, Fang XQ. 2021. Social impacts of extreme drought event in Guanzhong area, Shaanxi Province, during 1928–1931. Clim Change. 164(3–4):1–19.
  • Cunha APMA, Zeri M, Deusdará Leal K, Costa L, Cuartas LA, Marengo JA, Tomasella J, Vieira RM, Barbosa AA, Cunningham C, et al. 2019. Extreme drought events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019. Atmosphere. 10(11):642.
  • Defrance D, Delesalle E, Gubert F. 2020. Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987–2009 period (No. UCL-Université Catholique de Louvain). Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium: Institut de Recherche Economiques et Sociales, UC Louvain.
  • Deng L, Peng C, Kim D-G, Li J, Liu Y, Hai X, Liu Q, Huang C, Shangguan Z, Kuzyakov Y. 2021. Drought effects on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in global natural ecosystems. Earth Sci Rev. 214:103501.
  • Dikshit A, Pradhan B, Santosh M. 2022. Artificial neural networks in drought prediction in the 21st century–A scientometric analysis. Appl Soft Comput. 114:108080.
  • Ding Y, Xu J, Wang X, Cai H, Zhou Z, Sun Y, Shi H. 2021. Propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought for different climate regions in China. J Environ Manage. 283:111980.
  • Elbeltagi A, Kumar M, Kushwaha NL, Pande CB, Ditthakit P, Vishwakarma DK, Subeesh A. 2023. Drought indicator analysis and forecasting using data driven models: case study in Jaisalmer, India. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. 37(1):113–131.
  • Esfahanian E, Nejadhashemi AP, Abouali M, Adhikari U, Zhang Z, Daneshvar F, Herman MR. 2017. Development and evaluation of a comprehensive drought index. J Environ Manage. 185:31–43.
  • Farahmand A, AghaKouchak A. 2015. A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators. Adv Water Resour. 76:140–145.
  • Ford T, Labosier CF. 2014. Spatial patterns of drought persistence in the Southeastern United States. Int J Climatol. 34(7):2229–2240.
  • Güner Bacanli Ü. 2017. Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in the Aegean region, Turkey. Met Apps. 24(2):239–249.
  • Guo Y, Huang S, Huang Q, Leng G, Fang W, Wang L, Wang H. 2020. Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels. Sci Total Environ. 712:136502.
  • Ha TV, Huth J, Bachofer F, Kuenzer C. 2022. A review of earth observation-based drought studies in Southeast Asia. Remote Sensing. 14(15):3763.
  • Haile GG, Tang Q, Li W, Liu X, Zhang X. 2020. Drought: progress in broadening its understanding. Wiley Interdiscip Rev: water. 7(2):e1407.
  • Han J, Yang Y. 2021. The socio-economic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century. Clim Change. 164(3–4):1–17.
  • Haroon MA, Zhang J, Yao F. 2016. Drought monitoring and performance evaluation of MODIS-based drought severity index (DSI) over Pakistan. Nat Hazards. 84(2):1349–1366.
  • Hassan AG, Fullen MA, Oloke D. 2019. Problems of drought and its management in Yobe State, Nigeria. Weather Clim Extremes. 23:100192.
  • Honoré BE, Lewbel A. 2002. Semiparametric binary choice panel data models without strictly exogeneous regressors. Econometrica. 70(5):2053–2063.
  • Horowitz JL, Savin NE. 2001. Binary response models: logits, probits and semiparametrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 15(4):43–56.
  • Hussain A, Jadoon KZ, Rahman KU, Shang S, Shahid M, Ejaz N, Khan H. 2023. Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Nat Hazards. 115(1):389–408.
  • Idrees M, Shahzad N, Afzal F. 2022. Growing climate change impacts on hydrological drought and food security in district Peshawar, Pakistan. Handbook of climate change across the food supply chain. Cham, Switzerland: Springer; p. 467–483.
  • Jordaan A. 2022. Drought: the case of South Africa. Routledge handbook of environmental hazards and society. Abingdon: Routledge; p. 106–124
  • Kamali S, Asghari K. 2022. The effect of meteorological and hydrological drought on groundwater storage under climate change scenarios. Water Resour Manage. 1–19.
  • Kao SC, Govindaraju RS. 2010. A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts. J Hydrol. 380(1–2):121–134.
  • Keyantash JA, Dracup JA. 2004. An aggregate drought index: assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage. Water Resour Res. 40(9)
  • Kim SW, Jung D, Choung YJ. 2020. Development of a multiple linear regression model for meteorological drought index estimation based on landsat satellite imagery. Water. 12(12):3393.
  • Kim TW, Jehanzaib M. 2020. Drought risk analysis, forecasting and assessment under climate change. Water. 12(7):1862.
  • Kleinbaum DG, Klein M. 2010. Assessing discriminatory performance of a binary logistic model: ROC curves. Logistic regression. New York (NY): Springer; p. 345–387.
  • Kuwayama Y, Thompson A, Bernknopf R, Zaitchik B, Vail P. 2019. Estimating the impact of drought on agriculture using the US Drought Monitor. Am J Agric Econ. 101(1):193–210.
  • Lee BR, Sung JH, Chung ES, Ministry of Public Safety and Security, National Disaster Management Institute, Disaster Information Research Division. 2015. Comparison of meteorological drought and hydrological drought index. J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc. 48(1):69–78.
  • Li X, He B, Quan X, Liao Z, Bai X 2015. Use of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to characterize the drying trend in southwest China from 1982–2012. Remote Sens. 7(8):10917–10937.
  • Li L, She D, Zheng H, Lin P, Yang ZL. 2020. Elucidating diverse drought characteristics from two meteorological drought indices (SPI and SPEI) in China. J Hydrometeorol. 21(7):1513–1530.
  • Lotfirad M, Esmaeili-Gisavandani H, Adib A. 2022. Drought monitoring and prediction using SPI, SPEI, and random forest model in various climates of Iran. J Water Clim Change. 13(2):383–406.
  • Manski CF. 1988. Identification of binary response models. J Am Stat Assoc. 83(403):729–738.
  • Masanta SK, Srinivas VV. 2022. Proposal and evaluation of nonstationary versions of SPEI and SDDI based on climate covariates for regional drought analysis. J Hydrol. 610:127808.
  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology. Vol. 17. Boston (MA): American Meteorological Society; p. 179–183.
  • Meng L, Ford T, Guo Y. 2017. Logistic regression analysis of drought persistence in East China. Int J Climatol. 37(3):1444–1455.
  • Mishra AK, Singh VP. 2010. A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol. 391(1–2):202–216.
  • Mishra AK, Singh VP. 2011. Drought modeling–A review. J Hydrol. 403(1–2):157–175.
  • Mokhtar A, Jalali M, He H, Al-Ansari N, Elbeltagi A, Alsafadi K, Abdo HG, Sammen SS, Gyasi-Agyei Y, Rodrigo-Comino J. 2021. Estimation of SPEI meteorological drought using machine learning algorithms. IEEE Access. 9:65503–65523.
  • Mondol MAH, Zhu X, Dunkerley D, Henley BJ. 2021. Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Agric Water Manage. 255:107001.
  • Niaz R, Raza MA, Almazah MM, Hussain I, Al-Rezami AY, Al-Shamiri MMA. 2022. Proportional odds model for identifying spatial inter-seasonal propagation of meteorological drought. Geomatics Nat Hazards Risk. 13(1):1614–1639.
  • Niaz R, Iqbal N, Al-Ansari N, Hussain I, Elsherbini Elashkar E, Shamshoddin Soudagar S, Gani SH, Mohamd Shoukry A, Sh. Sammen S. 2022. A new spatiotemporal two-stage standardized weighted procedure for regional drought analysis. PeerJ. 10:e13249.
  • Niaz R, Tanveer F, Almazah M, Hussain I, Alkhatib S, Al-Razami AY. 2022. Characterization of meteorological drought using Monte Carlo feature selection and steady-state probabilities. Complexity. 2022:1–19.
  • Niaz R, Almazah MM, Al-Duais FS, Iqbal N, Khan DM, Hussain I. 2022. Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought variability in a homogeneous region using standardized drought indices. Geomatics Nat Hazards Risk. 13(1):1457–1481.
  • Niaz R, Almazah MM, Hussain I, Faisal M, Al-Rezami AY, Naser MA. 2022. A new comprehensive approach for regional drought monitoring. PeerJ. 10:e13377.
  • Niaz R, Almazah MMA, Hussain I, Filho JDP, Al-Ansari N, Sh Sammen S. 2022. Assessing the probability of drought severity in a homogenous region. Complexity. 2022:1–8.
  • Niaz R, Zhang X, Ali Z, Hussain I, Faisal M, Elashkar EE, Khader JA, Soudagar SS, Shoukry AM, Al-Deek FF. 2021. A new propagation-based framework to enhance competency in regional drought monitoring. Tellus A Dynm Meteorol Oceanogr. 73(1):1975404–1975412.
  • Niaz R, Hussain I, Zhang X, Ali Z, Elashkar EE, Khader JA, Soudagar SS, Shoukry AM. 2021. Prediction of drought severity using model-based clustering. Math Prob Eng. 2021:1–10.
  • Niaz R, Hussain I, Ali Z, Faisal M. 2021. A novel framework for regional pattern recognition of drought intensities. Arab J Geosci. 14(16):1–16.
  • Niaz R, Zhang X, Iqbal N, Almazah M, Hussain T, Hussain I. 2021. Logistic regression analysis for spatial patterns of drought persistence. Complexity. 2021:1–13.
  • Niaz R, Almazah M, Zhang X, Hussain I, Faisal M. 2021. Prediction for various drought classes using spatiotemporal categorical sequences. Complexity. 2021:1–11.
  • Niaz R, Almazah MMA, Hussain I, Filho JDP. 2021. A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities. Theor Appl Climatol. 147(3–4):1079–1090.
  • Naresh Kumar M, Murthy CS, Sesha Sai MVR, Roy PS. 2009. On the use of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought intensity assessment. Met Apps. 16(3):381–389.
  • Nayak MA, Hassan WU. 2021. A synthesis of drought prediction research over India. Water Secur. 13:100092.
  • Orimoloye IR, Belle JA, Orimoloye YM, Olusola AO, Ololade OO. 2022. Drought: a common environmental disaster. Atmosphere. 13(1):111.
  • Palmer WC. 1965. Meteorological drought. Vol. 30. Bohemia (NY): US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.
  • Papadopoulos C, Spiliotis M, Gkiougkis I, Pliakas F, Papadopoulos B. 2021. Fuzzy linear regression analysis for groundwater response to meteorological drought in the aquifer system of Xanthi plain, NE Greece. J Hydroinform. 23(5):1112–1129.
  • Prodhan FA, Zhang J, Hasan SS, Sharma TPP, Mohana HP. 2022. A review of machine learning methods for drought hazard monitoring and forecasting: current research trends, challenges, and future research directions. Environ Modell Softw. 149:105327.
  • Quiring SM. 2009. Monitoring drought: an evaluation of meteorological drought indices. Geography Compass. 3(1):64–88.
  • Salimi H, Asadi E, Darbandi S. 2021. Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring using several drought indices. Appl Water Sci. 11(2):1–10.
  • Sánchez-Pinillos M, D’Orangeville L, Boulanger Y, Comeau P, Wang J, Taylor AR, Kneeshaw D. 2022. Sequential droughts: a silent trigger of boreal forest mortality. Glob Chang Biol. 28(2):542–556.
  • Satoh Y, Shiogama H, Hanasaki N, Pokhrel Y, Boulange JES, Burek P, Gosling SN, Grillakis M, Koutroulis A, Müller Schmied H, et al. 2021. A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: a source of disagreement in future drought assessments. Environ Res Lett. 16(10):104001.
  • Savelli E, Rusca M, Cloke H, Di Baldassarre G. 2022. Drought and society: scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change. 13:e761.
  • Semykina A, Wooldridge JM. 2018. Binary response panel data models with sample selection and self‐selection. J Appl Econ. 33(2):179–197.
  • Sharma A, Sen S. 2022. Droughts risk management strategies and determinants of preparedness: insights from Madhya Pradesh, India. Nat Hazards. 114(2):2243–2281.
  • Solh M, van Ginkel M. 2014. Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world’s drylands. Weather Clim Extremes. 3:62–66.
  • Spinoni J, Barbosa P, De Jager A, McCormick N, Naumann G, Vogt JV, Magni D, Masante D, Mazzeschi M. 2019. A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. J Hydrol Reg Stud. 22:100593.
  • Stagge JH, Tallaksen LM, Gudmundsson L, Van Loon AF, Stahl K. 2015. Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI). Int J Climatol. 35(13):4027–4040.
  • Sueyoshi GT. 1995. A class of binary response models for grouped duration data. J Appl Econ. 10(4):411–431.
  • Sun H, Dang Y, Mao W. 2019. Identifying key factors of regional agricultural drought vulnerability using a panel data grey combined method. Nat Hazards. 98(2):621–642.
  • Surendran U, Kumar V, Ramasubramoniam S, Raja P. 2017. Development of drought indices for semi-arid region using drought indices calculator (DrinC)–a case study from Madurai District, a semi-arid region in India. Water Resour Manage. 31(11):3593–3605.
  • Sutradhar BC, Rao RP, Pandit VN. 2008. Generalized method of moments versus generalized quasilikelihood inferences in binary panel data models. Sankhyā Indian J Stat B (2008-). 70:34–62.
  • Svoboda M, LeComte D, Hayes M, Heim R, Gleason K, Angel J, Rippey B, Tinker R, Palecki M, Stooksbury D, et al. 2002. The drought monitor. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 83(8):1181–1190.
  • Tareke KA, Awoke AG. 2022. Hydrological drought analysis using streamflow drought index (SDI) in Ethiopia. Adv Meteorol. 2022:1–19.
  • Türkeş M, Tatlı H. 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. Int J Climatol A J Royal Meteorol Soc. 29(15):2270–2282.
  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim. 23(7):1696–1718.
  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Peña-Angulo D, Beguería S, Domínguez-Castro F, Tomás-Burguera M, Noguera I, Gimeno-Sotelo L, El Kenawy A. 2022. Global drought trends and future projections. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 380(2238):20210285.
  • Vogt, J. V., & Somma, F. (Eds.). 2013. Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Vol. 14. Berlin, Germany: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Waseem M, Jaffry AH, Azam M, Ahmad I, Abbas A, Lee JE. 2022. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Agriculture Standardized Residual Yield Series Nexuses across Punjab, Pakistan. Water. 14(3):496.
  • Waseem M, Khurshid T, Abbas A, Ahmad I, Javed Z. 2022. Impact of meteorological drought on agriculture production at different scales in Punjab, Pakistan. J Water Clim Change. 13(1):113–124.
  • Yang J, Chang J, Wang Y, Li Y, Hu H, Chen Y, Huang Q, Yao J. 2018. Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index. J Hydrol. 557:651–667.
  • Yao Y, Fu B, Liu Y, Li Y, Wang S, Zhan T, Wang Y, Gao D. 2022. Evaluation of ecosystem resilience to drought based on drought intensity and recovery time. Agric for Meteorol. 314:108809.
  • Yihdego Y, Vaheddoost B, Al-Weshah RA. 2019. Drought indices and indicators revisited. Arab J Geosci. 12(3):1–12.
  • Zarei AR, Mahmoudi MR, Moghimi MM. 2023. Determining the most appropriate drought index using the random forest algorithm with an emphasis on agricultural drought. Nat Hazards. 115(1):923–946.
  • Zarei AR, Mahmoudi MR. 2020. Assessment of the effect of PET calculation method on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Arab J Geosci. 13(4):1–14.
  • ZargaR A, Sadiq R, Naser B, Khan FI. 2011. A review of drought indices. Environ Rev. 19(NA):333–349.
  • Zhao H, Gao G, An W, Zou X, Li H, Hou M. 2017. Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China. Phys Chem Earth Parts a/b/c. 102:48–58.