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Original Articles

Rising China and Shifting Alliances in Northeast Asia: Opportunities and Challenges facing America and its Allies

Pages 153-180 | Published online: 25 Mar 2009

  • Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Case for Deep Engagement,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 1995); A similar argument is found in Robert Manning, “Futureshock or Renewed Partnership? The U.S.-Japan Alliance Facing the Millennium,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Autumn 1995).
  • Ozawa , Ichiro . 1993 . Nihon Kaizo Keikaku Tokyo : Kodansha .
  • 2002 . The National Security Strategy of the United States of America 26 Washington DC : GPO . The White House
  • 1992 . Defense White Paper 1991–1992 167 – 68 . Seoul : Korea Institute for Defense Analyses . It is often forgotten that the United States and South Korea had already agreed to move the Yongsan garrison out of Seoul in 1990, which did not materialize because the South Korean government could not pay the bill for such a move. For details, see Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea
  • Cheong Wa Dae [the Presidential Office], “ROK, China Agree to Promote Partnership,” July 7, 2003.
  • Gugbangbu . 2003 . Chamyeojeongbu-ui Gugbang-jeongchaeg [Participatory Government's Defense Policy 2003] 70 – 71 . Seoul : Gugbangbu . [Ministry of National Defense]
  • Data were taken from Korea National Statistical Office's homepage, available at http://www.nso.go.kr.
  • The Bank of Korea, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, September 2003, p. 104.
  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database,” available at http://projects.sipri.org/milex/mex_database1.html
  • For a detailed discussion on this issue, see Chung-in Moon and Chang-hee Nam, “Changing U.S.-Japan-China Relations and the Future Challenges to the ROK-U.S. Alliance,” Pacific Focus, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Fall 2001); Kim Seung-hwan, “Anti-Americanism in Korea (II),” Korea Times, Dec. 8, 2002.
  • Ibid.
  • “Joint Statement between the United States of America and the Republic of Korea,” The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, May 14, 2003.
  • Gugbangbu [Ministry of National Defense], “Hanmi Yongsangiji Ijeon Wanjeon Habui [The ROK and the United States completely agree to move the Yongsan garrison] “Jan. 19, 2004.
  • “35th Republic of Korea-United States Security Consultative Meeting Joint Communiqué,” Seoul, Republic of Korea, Nov. 17, 2003.
  • A list provided by the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, Dec. 2003.
  • United States Army, Army Transformation Roadmap 2003, Nov. 1, 2003, pp. 8–13.
  • Barbara Demick, “U.S. Puts Its Latest Arms in S. Korea; An infusion of high-tech weapons near the DMZ isn't at odds with Bush's call to end the nuclear crisis with Pyongyang via talks, officials say,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 21, 2003, p. A1.
  • Richard Halloran, “Relocation of Second Division,” Korea Herald, July 3, 2003, p. 17.
  • Ibid.
  • “Editorial: Future of Alliance,” Korea Herald, Oct. 14, 2003.
  • Seiichiro Takagi, “Datsureisenki ni okeru Chuugokuno Taigaininsiki” [China's External Perception in the Post-Cold War Era] in Seiichiro Takagi, ed., Datsureisenki no Chuugoku Gaoko to Ajia-Taiheiyou [Chinese Diplomacy and the Asia-Pacific Region in the Post-Cold War Era] (Nihon Kokusaimondai Kenkyuujo, 2000), pp. 5–7.
  • Yang Bojiang, “Rimei Guanxi de Tezheng ji Qizhong Jinqi Zouxiang” [The Characteristics of the Japan-U.S. Relations and Its Recent Trends], Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 2, 1990, pp. 22–32.
  • Takagi, “Datsureisenki ni okeru Chuugokuno Taigaininsiki [Chinese View of External World in the Post-Cold War Era],” pp. 8–11.
  • Xu Zhixian, “Zhongri Guanxi de Huigu yu Zhanwang” [Retrospect and Prospect of the Chian-Japan Relations], Xiandai Guoji Gaunxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 4, 1992, pp. 7–14.
  • Funabashi , Yoichi . 1999 . Alliance Adrift New York : Council on Foreign Relations Press .
  • Zhan Shiliang, “Lengzhanhou de Meiri Guanxi” [The U.S.-Japan Relaions after the Cold War], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu [International Studies], No. 1, 1995, pp. 1–7.
  • Seiichiro Takagi, “Reisengo no Kokusaikenryokukouzou to Chuugoku no Taigai Senryaku” [The Post-Cold War International Power Structure and China's External Strategy], Kokusai Mondai [International Affairs], No. 454 (January 1998), pp. 7–8.
  • Ibid., pp. 8–9.
  • Ibid., pp. 9–11.
  • Seiichiro Takagi, “Chuugoku no 'Shin-Anzenhoshoukan',” [China's “New Security Concept], Bouei Kenkyuujo Kiyou [NIDS Security Studies], March 2003, pp. 68–89.
  • “Visit to the People's Republic of China by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi: Meeting with President Jaing Zemin,” available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/china/pmv0110/meet-2.html and “Visit to the People's Republic of China by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi: Meeting with Premier Zhu Rongji,” available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/china/pmv0110/meet-1.html. both accessed 2004/5/18
  • Mainichi, July 8, 2002, p. 1.
  • For one of earlier expressions, see a report on a conference in June 2002 in ibid.
  • Wang Fan, “Meihan Tongmeng ji Weilai Zouxiang” [The U.S.-ROK Alliance and its Future Directions], Waijiao Xueyuan Xuebao [The Journal of the Institute of Diplomacy], No. 2, 2001, pp. 62–66.
  • Wang Zhuanjinan, “Shixi Lengzhanhou Meihan Tongmeng de Bianhua,” [Tentative Analysis of the Post-Cold War Changes of the U.S.-ROK Alliance], Guoji Luntan [International Forum], Vol. 3, No. 4 (Aug., 2001). The author recently published a more comprehensive study of the U.S. policy toward the Korean peninsula. One of the chapters of the book is an analysis of the U.S.-ROK alliance, which elaborates these arguments. Wang Zhuanjian, Shuangzhong Guizhi: Lengzhanhou Meiguode Chaoxian Bandao Zhengce [Dual Restraints: The U.S. Policy Toward the Korean peninsula after the Cold War] (Shijie Zhishi Chubanshe, 2003).
  • Interviews were conducted at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy (ASCA) of Social Sciences, the School of International Studies of the Renmin University of China (hereafter SISRUC), and the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Jan. 5, 2003, and the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), and the School of International Studies of the Peking University (hereafter SISPU) on Jan. 6, 2003, and with a retired PLA major general on Jan. 7. All interviews were conducted in English without interpretation.
  • Interview at CICIR.
  • Interview at SISRUC.
  • Interview at SISRUC and IWEP.
  • President Bush, West Point, New York, June 1, 2002, quoted in White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC, 2002), p. 25.
  • Interview at ASCA.
  • Interview at ASCA.
  • Interviews at ASCA and IWEP.
  • Interview at SISRUC.
  • Interview at ASCA.
  • Interviews at SISRUC and IWEP. An interviewee at IWEP suggested that U.S. military presence will continue to serve Chinese interests for ten years at least.
  • Interview at SISRUC.
  • Interview at SISRUC.
  • Interview at IWEP.
  • Interview at SISPU.
  • Interview with a retired PLA major-general.
  • Interview at SISPU.
  • Interview at SISRUC.
  • Interview at IWEP.
  • Interview at IWEP.
  • Interview at ASCA.
  • Interview at ASCA.
  • Interviews at CICIR and SISPU.
  • Interview at SISPU.
  • Interview at CICIR.
  • For articulate discussion of this dilemma, see Yasuyo Sakata, “Security Issues on the Korean peninsula and the China Factor: Opportunities and Challenges,” conference paper, “The Rise of China Revisited: Perception and Reality,” Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan, Dec. 10–12, 2003.

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