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Articles

Chinese Hegemony over East Asia by 2015?

Pages 7-28 | Published online: 25 Mar 2009

  • Huntington , Samuel P. 1996 . The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order New York : Simon & Schuster . See (particularly pp. 312–18; Caspar Weinberger and Peter Schweizer, The Next War (Regnery Publishing, 1997); Humphrey Hawkesley and Simon Holberton, Dragon Strike: The Millennium War (London: Sidgwick & Jackson, 1997); Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Alfred Knopf, 1997). Recently, respected US magazines such as The New Republic, National Review, Foreign Affairs, The Weekly Standard, and American Spectator have all published cover stories arguing for confronting and containing China-on the basis that China seeks to establish hegemony over Asia.
  • For elaboration see David Shambaugh, “Containment or Engagement of China? Calculating Beijing's Responses,” International Security (September 1996).
  • Current Chinese military trends which emphasize forward projection and force projection systems do indeed give one pause for concern. See, among many such reports, Bruce Blanche, “China's Military Development,” Jane's Intelligence Review & Jane's Sentinel Pointer (February 1997), p. 10.
  • 1978 . Hun-Ying Cidian 11 Beijing : Foreign Languages Press . The standard Chinese-English Dictionary (Han-Ying Cidian) defines hegemony as: “to dominate; lord it over; tyrannize over.” (p.
  • 1991 . China Perceives America, 1972–1990 78 – 83 . Princeton : Princeton University Press . For an expanded discussion of Chinese concepts of hegemony see my Beautiful Imperialist: (pp.
  • The Chinese debates over imperialism and hegemony are detailed in ibid., chapter 2; and “The Soviet Influence on the Chinese Worldview,” Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs (January 1992).
  • Few would dispute that American monetary hegemony within the Bretton Woods system did not serve to stabilize exchange rates and facilitate trade and development during the postwar era.
  • See William Kristol and Robert Kagan, “Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 1996), particularly pp. 20–23.
  • Princeton University Press, 1984.
  • Ibid., pp. 34–35.
  • Webster's New International Dictionary, 2nd ed.
  • See Lawrence J. Lau, Zhong-Xiao Jiang, and Jun Li, “Trade, Investment, and Economic Growth in China, paper prepared for the conference China and World Affairs in 2010,” Stanford University Asia/Pacific Research Center, April 25–26, 1996.
  • See the contributions to the special issue on China's Military in Transition in the China Quarterly (June 1996); and David Shambaugh, “China's Military: Real or Paper Tiger?” Washington Quarterly (Spring 1996).
  • 1968 . The Chinese World Order Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press . This classic description of this system is John King Fairbank, (see also Mark Mancall, China at the Center (New York: The Free Press, 1984); and William Kirby, “Traditions of Centrality, Authority, and Management in Modem China's Foreign Relations,” in Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh (eds.), Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 13–29.
  • See Harry Harding, “China's Cooperative Behavior,” in Robinson and Shambaugh, ibid., pp. 375–400; and Harding (ed.), China's Cooperative Relationships, forthcoming.
  • See David Shambaugh, “Pacific Security in the Pacific Century?” Current History (December 1994).
  • Iain Johnston , Alastair . 1995 . Cultural Realism Princeton : Princeton University Press . See (
  • See, for example, the sources in footnote 13.
  • 1995 . China's Air Force Enters the 21st Century Santa Monica : The Rand Corporation . The best analysis of trends in the Chinese air force is Kenneth W. Allen, Glenn Krumel, and Jonathan D. Pollack, (
  • I detail some of the reasons for this prognosis in “Losing Control: The Erosion of State Authority in China,” Current History (September 1994); and “Containment or Engagement of China? Calculating Beijing's Response.”
  • See the contributions of Michel Oksenberg, Andrew G. Walder, Jean C. Oi, and Thomas Fingar to the Stanford conference “China and World Affairs in 2010”; and Richard Baum, “China After Deng: Ten Scenarios in Search of Reality,” China Quarterly (March 1996).

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