Do prognostic variables predict a set of outcomes for patients with chronic low back pain: a long-term follow-up secondary analysis of a randomized control trial

References

• Costa LCM, Maher CG, Hancock MJ, et al. The prognosis of acute and persistent low-back pain: a meta-analysis. Cmaj. 2012 Aug 7;184(11):E613–E624. PubMed PMID: 22586331; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3414626.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Altman DG. Systematic reviews of evaluations of prognostic variables. BMJ. 2001 Jul 28;323(7306):224–228. PubMed PMID: 11473921; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC1120839.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Hayden JA, Chou R, Hogg-Johnson S, et al. Systematic reviews of low back pain prognosis had variable methods and results: guidance for future prognosis reviews. J Clin Epidemiol. 2009 Aug;62(8):781–796 e1. PubMed PMID: 19136234.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallen CD, Peat G, Thomas E, et al. Prognostic factors for musculoskeletal pain in primary care: a systematic review. Br J Gen Pract. 2007 Aug;57(541):655–661. PubMed PMID: 17688762; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2099673.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallen CD, Thomas E, Belcher J, et al. Point-of-care prognosis for common musculoskeletal pain in older adults. JAMA Intern Med. 2013 Jun 24;173(12):1119–1125. PubMed PMID: 23699833.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliveira IS, Costa LOP, Garcia AN, et al. Can demographic and anthropometric characteristics predict clinical improvement in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain? Braz J Phys Ther. 2018 Jul-Aug;22(4):328–335. PubMed PMID: 30017258.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heymans MW, van Buuren S, Knol DL, et al. The prognosis of chronic low back pain is determined by changes in pain and disability in the initial period. Spine J. 2010 Oct;10(10):847–856. PubMed PMID: 20619748.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maher C, Underwood M, Buchbinder R. Non-specific low back pain. Lancet. 2017 Feb 18;389(10070):736–747. . PubMed PMID: 27745712.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Costa LC, Maher CG, McAuley JH, et al. Prognosis for patients with chronic low back pain: inception cohort study. BMJ. 2009 Oct 6;339:b3829. PubMed PMID: 19808766; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2758336.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Grotle M, Foster NE, Dunn KM, et al. Are prognostic indicators for poor outcome different for acute and chronic low back pain consulters in primary care? Pain. 2010 Dec;151(3):790–797. PubMed PMID: 20932646; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3398128.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steffens D, Hancock MJ, Maher CG, et al. Prognosis of chronic low back pain in patients presenting to a private community-based group exercise program. Eur Spine J. 2014 Jan;23(1):113–119. PubMed PMID: 23793557; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3897833.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Verkerk K, Luijsterburg PA, Heymans MW, et al. Prognosis and course of disability in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain: a 5- and 12-month follow-up cohort study. Phys Ther. 2013 Dec;93(12):1603–1614. PubMed PMID: 23824781.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cook CE, Learman KE, O‘Halloran BJ, et al. Which prognostic factors for low back pain are generic predictors of outcome across a range of recovery domains? Phys Ther. 2013 Jan;93(1):32–40. PubMed PMID: 22879443.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deyo RA, Battie M, Beurskens AJ, et al. Outcome measures for low back pain research. A proposal for standardized use. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 1998 Sep 15;23(18):2003–2013. PubMed PMID: 9779535. Phila Pa 1976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chiarotto A, Deyo RA, Terwee CB, et al. Core outcome domains for clinical trials in non-specific low back pain. Eur Spine J. 2015 Jun;24(6):1127–1142. PubMed PMID: 25841358.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sun X, Briel M, Walter SD, et al. Is a subgroup effect believable? Updating criteria to evaluate the credibility of subgroup analyses. BMJ. 2010 Mar 30;340:c117. PubMed PMID: 20354011.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vogenberg FR. Predictive and prognostic models: implications for healthcare decision-making in a modern recession. Am Health Drug Benefits. 2009 Sep;2(6):218–222. PubMed PMID: 25126292; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC4106488.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Bekkering GE, Hendriks HJ, van Tulder MW, et al. Prognostic factors for low back pain in patients referred for physiotherapy: comparing outcomes and varying modeling techniques. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2005 Aug 15;30(16):1881–1886. PubMed PMID: 16103860. Phila Pa 1976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sihawong R, Sitthipornvorakul E, Paksaichol A, et al. Predictors for chronic neck and low back pain in office workers: a 1-year prospective cohort study. J Occup Health. 2016;58(1):16–24. PubMed PMID: 26498979.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garcia AN, Costa LC, Hancock MJ, et al. Efficacy of the McKenzie method in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain: a protocol of randomized placebo-controlled trial. Phys Ther. 2015 Feb;95(2):267–273. PubMed PMID: 25278336.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Garcia AN, Costa LDCM, Hancock MJ, et al. McKenzie method of mechanical diagnosis and therapy was slightly more effective than placebo for pain, but not for disability, in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain: a randomised placebo controlled trial with short and longer term follow-up. Br J Sports Med. 2017 May;52(9):594–600. PubMed PMID: 28701365.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Medicine, American College of Sports. ACSM‘s guidelines for exercise testing and prescription. Philadelphia (US): Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2013.
   Google Scholar
• Chiarotto A, Boers M, Deyo RA, et al. Core outcome measurement instruments for clinical trials in nonspecific low back pain. Pain. 2018 Mar;159(3):481–495. PubMed PMID: 29194127; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC5828378.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Costa LO, Maher CG, Latimer J, et al. Clinimetric testing of three self-report outcome measures for low back pain patients in Brazil: which one is the best? Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2008 Oct 15;33(22):2459–2463. PubMed PMID: 18923324. Phila Pa 1976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Costa LO, Maher CG, Latimer J, et al. Psychometric characteristics of the Brazilian-Portuguese versions of the functional rating index and the Roland Morris disability questionnaire. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2007 Aug 1;32(17):1902–1907. PubMed PMID: 17762300. Phila Pa 1976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Heinrich M, Hafenbrack K, Michel C, et al. Measures of success in treatment of chronic back pain: pain intensity, disability and functional capacity: determinants of treatment success in multimodal day clinic setting. Schmerz. 2011 Jun;25(3):282–289. PubMed PMID: 21424332.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vincent HK, Omli MR, Day T, et al. Fear of movement, quality of life, and self-reported disability in obese patients with chronic lumbar pain. Pain Med. 2011 Jan;12(1):154–164. PubMed PMID: 21087405.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Melloh M, Elfering A, Egli Presland C, et al. Identification of prognostic factors for chronicity in patients with low back pain: a review of screening instruments. Int Orthop. 2009 Apr;33(2):301–313. PubMed PMID: 19130056; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2899092.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Steenstra IA, Verbeek JH, Heymans MW, et al. Prognostic factors for duration of sick leave in patients sick listed with acute low back pain: a systematic review of the literature. Occup Environ Med. 2005 Dec;62(12):851–860. PubMed PMID: 16299094; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC1740930.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dionne CE, Von Korff M, Koepsell TD, et al. Formal education and back pain: a review. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2001 Jul;55(7):455–468. PubMed PMID: 11413174; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC1731944.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• George SZ, Childs JD, Teyhen DS, et al. Predictors of occurrence and severity of first time low back pain episodes: findings from a military inception cohort. PLoS ONE. 2012;7(2):e30597. PubMed PMID: 22355317; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3280257.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Eleswarapu AS, Divi SN, Dirschl DR, et al. How effective is physical therapy for common low back pain diagnoses? A multivariate analysis of 4597 patients. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2016 Aug 15;41(16):1325–1329. PubMed PMID: 26890953. Phila Pa 1976.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harms MC, Peers CE, Chase D. Low back pain: what determines functional outcome at six months? An observational study. BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2010 Oct 13;11:236.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Verkerk K, Luijsterburg PA, Heymans MW, et al. Prognostic factors and course for successful clinical outcome quality of life and patients‘ perceived effect after a cognitive behavior therapy for chronic non-specific low back pain: a 12-months prospective study. Man Ther. 2015 Feb;20(1):96–102. PubMed PMID: 25107827.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Mondloch MV, Cole DC, Frank JW. Does how you do depend on how you think you‘ll do? A systematic review of the evidence for a relation between patients‘ recovery expectations and health outcomes. CMAJ. 2001 Jul 24;165(2):174–179. PubMed PMID: 11501456; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC81284.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kamper SJ, Ostelo RW, Knol DL, et al. Global perceived effect scales provided reliable assessments of health transition in people with musculoskeletal disorders, but ratings are strongly influenced by current status. J Clin Epidemiol. 2010 Jul;63(7):760–766 e1. PubMed PMID: 20056385.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Devilly GJ, Borkovec TD. Psychometric properties of the credibility/expectancy questionnaire. J Behav Ther Exp Psychiatry. 2000 Jun;31(2):73–86. PubMed PMID: 11132119.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hinkle DE, Wiersma W, Jurs SG. Applied statistics for the behavioral sciences. Vol. 663. Boston (US): Houghton Mifflin College Division; 2003.
   Google Scholar
• Mukaka MM. Statistics corner: A guide to appropriate use of correlation coefficient in medical research. Malawi Med J. 2012 Sep;24(3):69–71. PubMed PMID: 23638278; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3576830.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shen J, Gao S. A solution to separation and multicollinearity in multiple logistic regression. J Data Sci. 2008 Oct 1;6(4):515–531. PubMed PMID: 20376286; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2849171.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Courvoisier DS, Combescure C, Agoritsas T, et al. Performance of logistic regression modeling: beyond the number of events per variable, the role of data structure. J Clin Epidemiol. 2011 Sep;64(9):993–1000. PubMed PMID: 21411281.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hosmer DW, Hjort NL. Goodness-of-fit processes for logistic regression: simulation results. Stat Med. 2002 Sep 30;21(18):2723–2738. . PubMed PMID: 12228887.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maldonado G, Greenland S. Interpreting model coefficients when the true model form is unknown. Epidemiology. 1993 Jul;4(4):310–318. PubMed PMID: 8347741.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nemes S, Jonasson JM, Genell A, et al. Bias in odds ratios by logistic regression modelling and sample size. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2009 Jul 27;9:56. PubMed PMID: 19635144; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2724427.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clewley D, Rhon D, Flynn T, et al. Health seeking behavior as a predictor of healthcare utilization in a population of patients with spinal pain. PLoS ONE. 2018;13(8):e0201348. PubMed PMID: 30067844; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC6070259.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cohen SB. The concentration of health care expenditures and related expenses for costly medical conditions, 2012. Statistical Brief (Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (US)). Rockville (MD): Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (US), 2001.
   Google Scholar
• Kamper SJ, Stanton TR, Williams CM, et al. How is recovery from low back pain measured? A systematic review of the literature. Eur Spine J. 2011 Jan;20(1):9–18. PubMed PMID: 20552378; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC3036032.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Freedman DA, Freedman David A. A note on screening regression equations. Am Stat. 1983;37(2):152–155.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Thomas E, Silman AJ, Croft PR, et al. Predicting who develops chronic low back pain in primary care: a prospective study. BMJ. 1999 Jun 19;318(7199):1662–1667. PubMed PMID: 10373170; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC28145.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Bursac Z, Gauss CH, Williams DK, et al. Purposeful selection of variables in logistic regression. Source Code Biol Med. 2008 Dec 16;3:17. PubMed PMID: 19087314; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2633005.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Peduzzi P, Concato J, Kemper E, et al. A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. J Clin Epidemiol. 1996 Dec;49(12):1373–1379. PubMed PMID: 8970487.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Austin PC, Steyerberg EW. The number of subjects per variable required in linear regression analyses. J Clin Epidemiol. 2015 Jun;68(6):627–636. . PubMed PMID: 25704724.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harrell FE Jr., Lee KL, Califf RM, et al. Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction. Stat Med. 1984 Apr-Jun;3(2):143–152. PubMed PMID: 6463451.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Harrell FE. Regression modeling strategies. 2013;3:3. As implemented in R package ‘rms’ version.
   Google Scholar
• Hajjaj FM, Salek MS, Basra MK, et al. Non-clinical influences on clinical decision-making: a major challenge to evidence-based practice. J R Soc Med. 2010 May;103(5):178–187. PubMed PMID: 20436026; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2862069.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mallen CD, Peat G, Porcheret M, et al. The prognosis of joint pain in the older patient: general practitioners‘ views on discussing and estimating prognosis. Eur J Gen Pract. 2007;13(3):166–168. PubMed PMID: 17853182.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Moons KG, Royston P, Vergouwe Y, et al. Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how? BMJ. 2009 Feb 23;338:b375. PubMed PMID: 19237405.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chiarotto A, Terwee CB, Ostelo RW. Choosing the right outcome measurement instruments for patients with low back pain. Best Pract Res Clin Rheumatol. 2016 Dec;30(6):1003–1020. . PubMed PMID: 29103546.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clarke M. Standardising outcomes for clinical trials and systematic reviews. Trials. 2007 Nov 26;8:39.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Artus M, Campbell P, Mallen CD, et al. Generic prognostic factors for musculoskeletal pain in primary care: a systematic review. BMJ Open. 2017 Jan 17;7(1):e012901. PubMed PMID: 28096253; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC5253570.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fritz JM, Beneciuk JM, George SZ. Relationship between categorization with the STarT back screening tool and prognosis for people receiving physical therapy for low back pain. Phys Ther. 2011 May;91(5):722–732. . PubMed PMID: 21451094.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Williams CM, Hancock MJ, Maher CG, et al. Predicting rapid recovery from acute low back pain based on the intensity, duration and history of pain: a validation study. Eur J Pain. 2014 Sep;18(8):1182–1189. PubMed PMID: 24648103.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gatchel RJ, Peng YB, Peters ML, et al. The biopsychosocial approach to chronic pain: scientific advances and future directions. Psychol Bull. 2007 Jul;133(4):581–624. PubMed PMID: 17592957.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nicholas MK, George SZ. Psychologically informed interventions for low back pain: an update for physical therapists. Phys Ther. 2011 May;91(5):765–776. . PubMed PMID: 21451090.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cedraschi C, Nordin M, Haldeman S, et al. The global spine care initiative: a narrative review of psychological and social issues in back pain in low- and middle-income communities. Eur Spine J. 2018 Jan;27. 10.1007/s00586-017-5434-7. PubMed PMID: 29374779.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chou R, Shekelle P. Will this patient develop persistent disabling low back pain? JAMA. 2010 Apr 7;303(13):1295–1302. PubMed PMID: 20371789.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Foster NE, Thomas E, Bishop A, et al. Distinctiveness of psychological obstacles to recovery in low back pain patients in primary care. Pain. 2010 Mar;148(3):398–406. PubMed PMID: 20022697; PubMed Central PMCID: PMCPMC2831173.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Verkerk K, Luijsterburg PA, Miedema HS, et al. Prognostic factors for recovery in chronic nonspecific low back pain: a systematic review. Phys Ther. 2012 Sep;92(9):1093–1108. PubMed PMID: 22595238.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Turk DC, Dworkin RH, Allen RR, et al. Core outcome domains for chronic pain clinical trials: IMMPACT recommendations. Pain. 2003 Dec;106(3):337–345. PubMed PMID: 14659516.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Henschke N, Ostelo RW, Terwee CB, et al. Identifying generic predictors of outcome in patients presenting to primary care with nonspinal musculoskeletal pain. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2012 Aug;64(8):1217–1224. PubMed PMID: 22422737.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Medeiros FC, Costa LOP, Added MAN, et al. Longitudinal monitoring of patients with chronic low back pain during physical therapy treatment using the STarT back screening tool. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther. 2017 May;47(5):314–323. PubMed PMID: 28355979.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar