97
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Statistical Models and Methods Article

A Bootstrap-Based Covariate Selection Method for Modeling the Risk of Lightning-Induced Fires at a Local Scale: A Case Study in Northwest Spain

, , &
Pages 254-267 | Received 04 Jul 2011, Published online: 02 Jan 2013

REFERENCES

  • Álvarez-Lamata , E. 2005 . Los incendios forestales y las condiciones meteorológicas en Aragón . 4th Congreso Forestal español, Zaragoza, September, 26–30. Sociedad Española de Ciencias Forestales y Gobierno de Aragón [In Spanish]
  • Andrews , P L , Loftsgaarden , D O and Bradshaw , L S . 2003 . Evaluation of fire danger rating indexes using logistic regression and percentile analysis . Internat J Wildland Fire , 12 ( 2 ) : 213 – 26 .
  • Bonazountas , M , Kallidromitou , D Kassomenos , P A . 2005 . Forest fire risk analysis . Hum Ecol Risk Assess , 11 ( 3 ) : 617 – 26 .
  • Bond , W J and van Wilgen , B W . 1996 . Fire and Plants , London , , UK : Chapman & Hall .
  • Castedo-Dorado , F , Rodríguez-Pérez , J R Marcos Menéndez , J L . 2011 . Modelling the probability of lightning-induced forest fires occurrence in the province of León (NW Spain) . For Syst , 20 ( 1 ) : 95 – 107 .
  • Conedera , M , Cesti , G Pezzatti , G B . 2006 . Lightning-induced fires in the alpine region: An increasing problem . For Ecol Manage , 234 ( Supplement 1 ) :S68
  • Díaz-Avalos , C , Peterson , D L Alvarado , E . 2001 . Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon . Can J For Res , 31 ( 9 ) : 1579 – 93 .
  • Dissing , D and Verbyla , D . 2003 . Spatial patterns of lightning strikes in interior Alaska and their relations to elevation and vegetation . Can J For Res , 33 ( 5 ) : 770 – 82 .
  • Efron , B. 1979 . Bootstrap methods—Another look at the jackknife . Ann Stat , 7 ( 1 ) : 1 – 26 .
  • Evett , R R , Mohrle , C R Hall , B L . 2008 . The effect of monsoonal atmospheric moisture on lightning fire ignitions in southwestern North America . Agric For Meteorol , 148 ( 10 ) : 1478 – 87 .
  • Finney , MA. 1998 . FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator–Model Development and Evaluation , Collins , CO, USA : USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. . Research Paper RMRS-RP-4
  • Flannigan , M D and Wotton , B M . 1991 . Lightning-ignited forest-fires in northwestern Ontario . Can J For Res , 21 ( 3 ) : 277 – 87 .
  • García , C V , Woodard , P M Titus , S J . 1995 . A logit model for predicting the daily occurrence of human caused forest-fires . Internat J Wildland Fire , 5 ( 2 ) : 101 – 11 .
  • Granstrom , A. 1993 . Spatial and temporal variation in lightning ignitions in Sweden . J Veg Sci , 4 ( 6 ) : 737 – 44 .
  • Hosmer , D and Lemeshow , S . 2000 . Applied Logistic Regression, 2nd edit , New York , NY, USA : Wiley-Interscience .
  • Junta de Castilla y León . 2005 . Castilla y León crece con el bosque . Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Junta de Castilla y León. Serie Divulgativa
  • Kourtz , P H and Todd , B . 1992 . Predicting the Daily Occurrence of Lightning-Caused Forest Fires , Petawawa , , Canada : Canadian Forest Service . Inf Rep PI-X-112
  • Krawchuk , M , Cumming , S Flannigan , M . 2006 . Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest . Ecology , 87 ( 2 ) : 458 – 68 .
  • Latham , D and Williams , E . 2001 . “ Lightning and forest fires ” . In Forest Fires , Edited by: Johnson , E A and Miyanishi , K . San Diego , CA, USA : Academic Press .
  • Manry , D and Knight , R . 1986 . Lightning density and burning frequency in South-African vegetation . Vegetatio , 66 ( 2 ) : 67 – 76 .
  • Martín , R E and Means , J E . 1982 . Fire History and Its Role In Succession. Forest Succession and Stand Development Research in the Northwest , Corvallis , OR, USA : Oregon State University, Forest Research Laboratory .
  • Martínez , J , Vega-García , C and Chuvieco , E . 2009 . Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain . J Environ Manage , 90 ( 2 ) : 1241 – 52 .
  • McCullagh , P and Nelder , J A . 1989 . Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edit , London , , UK : Chapman and Hall .
  • McRae , R. 1992 . Prediction of areas prone to lightning ignition . Internat J Wildland Fire , 2 ( 3 ) : 123 – 30 .
  • Nieto , H , Aguado , I and Chuvieco , E . Estimation of lightning-caused fires occurrence probability in Central Spain . Proc 5th International conference on forest fire research. Coimbra, Portugal. Nov 27–30 ,
  • Ogilcie , CJ. 1989 . Lightning fires in Saskatchewan forests . Fire Manage Notes , 50 ( 1 ) : 31 – 6 .
  • Opsomer , JD. 2000 . Asymptotic properties of backfitting estimators . J Multivar Anal , 73 ( 2 ) : 166 – 79 .
  • Pacheco , C E , Aguado , I and Nieto , H . 2009 . Análisis de ocurrencia de incendios forestales causados por rayo en la España peninsular . Geofocus , 9 : 232 – 49 .
  • Podur , J , Martell , D L and Csillag , F . 2003 . Spatial patterns of lightning-caused forest fires in Ontario, 1976–1998 . Ecol Model , 164 ( 1 ) : 1 – 20 .
  • Pyne , S J , Andrews , P L and Laven , R D . 1996 . Introduction to Wildland Fire, 2nd edit , New York , NY, USA : John Wiley & Sons .
  • Rivas-Soriano , L , de Pablo , F and Diez , E . 2001 . Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the Iberian Peninsula: 1992–1994 . J Geophysical Research-Atmospheres , 106 ( D11 ) : 11891 – 901 .
  • Rivas-Soriano , L , de Pablo , F and Tomas , C . 2005 . Ten-year study of cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the Iberian Peninsula . J Atmos Solar Terr Phys , 67 ( 16 ) : 1632 – 9 .
  • Roca-Pardinas , J , Cadarso-Suarez , C Tahoces , P G . 2009 . Selecting variables in non-parametric regression models for binary response. An application to the computerized detection of breast cancer . Stat Med , 28 ( 2 ) : 240 – 59 .
  • Rorig , M L and Ferguson , S A . 1999 . Characteristics of lightning and wildland fire ignition in the Pacific Northwest . J Appl Meteorol , 38 ( 11 ) : 1565 – 75 .
  • Rorig , M L and Ferguson , S A . 2002 . The 2000 fire season: Lightning-caused fires . J Appl Meteorol , 41 ( 7 ) : 786 – 91 .
  • Saveland , J M and Neuenschwander , L F . 1990 . A signal-detection framework to evaluate models of tree mortality following fire damage . For Sci , 36 ( 1 ) : 66 – 76 .
  • Spanish Ministry of the Environment . 2003 . . Mapa Forestal de España, escala 1:50.000 (MFE50) de la provincia de León , Madrid , , Spain : Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales .
  • Swets , J A and Pickett , R M . 1982 . Evaluation of Diagnostic Systems: Methods from Signal Detection Theory, 1st edit , New York , NY, USA : Academic Press .
  • Vankat , JL. General patterns of lightning ignitions in Sequoia National Park, California . Proceedings Symposium and Workshop on Wilderness Fire. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-182; Nov. 15/18, 1983; Missoula, MT, USA ,
  • Vasconcelos , M JP , Silva , S Tomé , M . 2001 . Spatial prediction of fire ignition probabilities: Comparing logistic regression and neural networks . Photogramm Eng Remote Sens , 67 ( 1 ) : 73 – 81 .
  • Vázquez , A and Moreno , J M . 1993 . Sensitivity of fire occurrence to meteorological variables in Mediterranean and Atlantic areas of Spain . Land Urb Plan , 24 : 129 – 42 .
  • Vázquez , A and Moreno , J M . 1998 . Patterns of lightning-, and people-caused fires in peninsular Spain . Internat J Wildland Fire , 8 ( 2 ) : 103 – 15 .
  • Vélez , R. 1990 . Mediterranean forest fires: A regional perspective . Unasylva , 162 : 3 – 9 .
  • Vilar , L , Nieto , H and Martin , M P . 2010 . Integration of lightning- and human-caused wildfire occurrence models . Hum Ecol Risk Assess , 16 ( 2 ) : 340 – 64 .
  • Wierzchowski , J , Heathcott , M and Flannigan , M D . 2002 . Lightning and lightning fire, Central Cordillera, Canada . Internat J Wildland Fire , 11 ( 1 ) : 41 – 51 .
  • Wotton , B M and Martell , D L . 2005 . A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario . Can J For Res , 35 ( 6 ) : 1389 – 401 .

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.